World Cup Top Goalscorer

8-10

Incorporating original Top Goalscorer thread, now for all WC fancies....

Ok maybe a bit premature because squads haven't been announced but I just noticed a price that I see value in.

Luis Suarez (Uruguay) has drifted from 50's to 66/1 with PP.

Luis Suarez is the Ajax captain. I've seen all but 4 of Ajax's games this season. I've also watched him in a number of the qualifiers for Uruguay. This guy has a great relationship with Forlan. He has 10 international goals so far with 3 coming in qualifying. He's only 23 but is a certain starter in the tournament.

Why value? Suarez has 45 goals so far this season in 45 games. With 1 league game to go, he has 33 goals in the league. Nobody else in Europe has more than 30 goals this season:

http://www.worldsoccer.com/esm/esmgoldenshoe.php

This gives the rankings of European strikers this year. The Dutch league is admittedly not the same as the Premier League or La Liga, granted, but that table weights the goals by giving him a factor of 1.5 to the bigger league's 2. He's 5th in Europe by these official criteria.

So he can score goals. In the league, in the Cup, in WC Qualifiers, in the Europa League.....anywhere.

But who is he up against in the World Cup:

Group A
South Africa
France
Mexico
Uruguay.

On the surface, looks like a difficult group for them to get out of. But think about it -

South Africa, automatic qualifiers who didn't compete in the African Cup of Nations. So they haven't played anything but friendlies in fecking ages. Last 5 friendlies they only managed to beat Zimbabwe, with draws against the likes of Jamaica, Naimibia and North Korea.

France, as we all know they struggled in qualifying, barely beating Faroe Islands away and a few disappointing draws. Outplayed by Ireland in their own backyard and not up to much in recent friendlies with Turkey and Nigeria. Don't get me wrong, strong strong squad and huge favourites for the group, but we've all seen them in the past couple of years and all I'm sure will admit they're there for the taking if you have a good day.

Mexico, used a lot of players during qualifying I believe but did pretty well. Sort of an unknown to me as I haven't seen them play in a long time but it's always a big step playing North/Central American teams to World Cup level.

I'd be looking for him to score 4/5 goals in the group and if they get to the last 16 maybe 1/2 more.

6 goals was enough to win the top goalscorer in 1990, 94 and 98. Ronaldo managed 8 in 2002 but last World Cup Klose got the gong with only 5.

I think it's ambitious of me to see Suarez scoring 6, sure. But people win with 6, and this is a value bet. If the World Cup is run 66 times this summer, I think he'd score enough goals more than once.

My two cents. Or ten euro, incidentally, as that's what I'm putting on.

Who's yor bet?

Juwwi

David Villa looks a great bet a 10/1 with torres out injured he might miss the start of the tournament.
villa takes the penos aswell and spain will score a bucket load of goals in that group.

Goldcupfav

www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/top-goalscorer

Liam O

robbie1977 wrote: »

David Villa looks a great bet a 10/1 with torres out injured he might miss the start of the tournament.
villa takes the penos aswell and spain will score a bucket load of goals in that group.

Spain are WC bottlers, I'd be surprised if they made the semis

Kod-box

Spain of old yes, not this current squad though.

Im already on Messi and Argentina though, they will score a load but concede aload too.

Verance

Liam O wrote: »

Spain are WC bottlers, I'd be surprised if they made the semis

Bull****! :pac:

robbie1977 wrote: »

David Villa looks a great bet a 10/1 with torres out injured he might miss the start of the tournament.
villa takes the penos aswell and spain will score a bucket load of goals in that group.

Agree, very hard to see him out of the top four. Probably has the easiest group to work with, could have it wrapped up after a few games.

Juwwi

tevez at 50/1 looks way too big also.

just looking on oddschecker there is a few firms paying out 5 places while most are going 4 places.

Gillington

What happens if two players finish joint top scorer and you just have a win bet?

Juwwi

its setled as a dead head.
half ur stake at the full odds.

Goldcupfav

Gillington wrote: »

What happens if two players finish joint top scorer and you just have a win bet?

Half your stake at full odds! Or half your odds at full stake !

Gillington

Cheers fella's

Goldcupfav

Antonio Di Natale and RVP for me ! New Zealand will be the whipping boys of the world cup Italy should score plenty in that group and Dutch always do well in group stages !

Verance

Klaas-Jan Huntelaar looks far too big @ 50/1. I'm expecting the Netherlands to finally show their class and can see them going a long way. Have an easy enough group and an easy second round should they qualify. Huntelaar played in all 8 games in their 100 percent qualifying campaign and scored 3.

A definite each way play @ 50s - Skybet, Betfred, Blue square and 888 paying 5 places.

pwd

doubt uruguay will get far in the tournament. Agree that Tevez is good for the odds they've given him.

Robin Van Persie is 40-1. Seems good value. He was banging them in this season before he got injured, and he's back playing now. Netherlands and Argentina both have good chances of staying in until the latter rounds too.

pwd

3 almost simultaneous posts saying the dutch are likely to do well. odd eh?

x PyRo

RVP for me. Way over priced.

dxhound2005

Thierry Henri

Nulty

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Antonio Di Natale and RVP for me ! New Zealand will be the whipping boys of the world cup Italy should score plenty in that group and Dutch always do well in group stages !

Spot on IMO. Dutch seem to get plenty of goals in their matches. Very open games. RVP a poss but not a guaranteed out-and-out goalscorer. Very tempting though


As for Argentina. Theres too many top class strikers in their team. Bets on any but Messi are a waste IMO

Gillington

Nulty wrote: »

Spot on IMO. Dutch seem to get plenty of goals in their matches. Very open games. RVP a poss but not a guaranteed out-and-out goalscorer. Very tempting though


As for Argentina. Theres too many top class strikers in their team. Bets on any but Messi are a waste IMO

Would love to agree as it would cap an amazing season for him but his return for Argentina isnt as good as it is at club level.2 goals in 10 games in the qualifiers this season and 6 in 22 in the whole WC qualifying campaign doesnt do it for me.

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/players/stats?id=45843&cc=5739

8-10

Gillington wrote: »

6 in 22 in the whole WC qualifying campaign doesnt do it for me.

Um....22?

There's 10 teams in CONMEBOL, play each of the other 9 twice, 18 games no? Where were the other 4 games?

Kod-box

Argentina had a terrible qualifying round for the WC in general, Maradonna picked something like 70 different players throughout in the squad, alot of whom were utterly useless, i reckon once he gets his set, proper team they will gel better together and start banging them in.

Gillington

8-10 wrote: »

Um....22?

There's 10 teams in CONMEBOL, play each of the other 9 twice, 18 games no? Where were the other 4 games?

Yeah my bad,I just added up the World Cup Qualifying - CONMEBOL 07/08,08/09,09/10 stats from that page,dunno where the other 4 are from then?

Warper

Ya Villa and Fabiano are the 2 standouts for me. Argentina are in a handy group but who will play. Higuain is a worthy bet but Maradona is simply out of his mind.

I agree Spain are WC bottlers but their Group is ridiculously easy so I think I will back Villa for Top Scorer but Brazil are nailed on to win the tournament @ 5-1.

Gdep

Has anyone mentioned Ronaldo? Portugal are in a tough group but you have to think even brazil will concede against Ronaldo. You can get 18s for him. Fair enough they may struggle to get very far in the tournament but if they do you've got to imagine ronaldo will do most of the scoring.

x PyRo

Portugal won't get out of the groups, they're beyond brutal. Ronaldo or no Ronaldo.

Nozebleed

Pato 50/1

3hn2givr7mx1sc

I'm going Spain/Messi or Villa and Brazil/Messi or Villa.

Still not sure, think I'll go with Villa, though.

Gillington

If anyone spots a World Cup free kick and peno taker thing similar to This,will you's post it up here? Could come in handy.

Vurnon San Benito

No bulls**t.
Spain will bottle it. I've been hearing so much about 'this years team'.
In 2002 they nearly bottled it against an Ireland side without arguably their best player. 2006 they couldn't do it either.
I can't see 2010 being any different whatsoever.

I'd be looking at an Argentinian for the top-scorer. I think they'll come very close to winning the title. Kún Aguero maybe :P

Gillington

Being honest,if I was backing an Argentinian to be top goalscorer I would honestly wait til the day of their first match to see if he was in the starting XI.Nothing is guaranteed with maradona you wouldnt know who he was goona pick.Plus given their attacking players,Messi,tevez,Higuain,Milito,Aguero I think goals could be shared rather then one player scoring them all.

I dunno,dont mean to be putting people off but it seems a tall order picking Argentina's top scorer let alone the World Cup's!

Vurnon San Benito

Gillington wrote: »

Being honest,if I was backing an Argentinian to be top goalscorer I would honestly wait til the day of their first match to see if he was in the starting XI.Nothing is guaranteed with maradona you wouldnt know who he was goona pick.Plus given their attacking players,Messi,tevez,Higuain,Milito,Aguero I think goals could be shared rather then one player scoring them all.

I dunno,dont mean to be putting people off but it seems a tall order picking Argentina's top scorer let alone the World Cup's!

*cough* Jonas Gutierrez *cough*