World Cup Top Goalscorer

8-10

Incorporating original Top Goalscorer thread, now for all WC fancies....

Ok maybe a bit premature because squads haven't been announced but I just noticed a price that I see value in.

Luis Suarez (Uruguay) has drifted from 50's to 66/1 with PP.

Luis Suarez is the Ajax captain. I've seen all but 4 of Ajax's games this season. I've also watched him in a number of the qualifiers for Uruguay. This guy has a great relationship with Forlan. He has 10 international goals so far with 3 coming in qualifying. He's only 23 but is a certain starter in the tournament.

Why value? Suarez has 45 goals so far this season in 45 games. With 1 league game to go, he has 33 goals in the league. Nobody else in Europe has more than 30 goals this season:

http://www.worldsoccer.com/esm/esmgoldenshoe.php

This gives the rankings of European strikers this year. The Dutch league is admittedly not the same as the Premier League or La Liga, granted, but that table weights the goals by giving him a factor of 1.5 to the bigger league's 2. He's 5th in Europe by these official criteria.

So he can score goals. In the league, in the Cup, in WC Qualifiers, in the Europa League.....anywhere.

But who is he up against in the World Cup:

Group A
South Africa
France
Mexico
Uruguay.

On the surface, looks like a difficult group for them to get out of. But think about it -

South Africa, automatic qualifiers who didn't compete in the African Cup of Nations. So they haven't played anything but friendlies in fecking ages. Last 5 friendlies they only managed to beat Zimbabwe, with draws against the likes of Jamaica, Naimibia and North Korea.

France, as we all know they struggled in qualifying, barely beating Faroe Islands away and a few disappointing draws. Outplayed by Ireland in their own backyard and not up to much in recent friendlies with Turkey and Nigeria. Don't get me wrong, strong strong squad and huge favourites for the group, but we've all seen them in the past couple of years and all I'm sure will admit they're there for the taking if you have a good day.

Mexico, used a lot of players during qualifying I believe but did pretty well. Sort of an unknown to me as I haven't seen them play in a long time but it's always a big step playing North/Central American teams to World Cup level.

I'd be looking for him to score 4/5 goals in the group and if they get to the last 16 maybe 1/2 more.

6 goals was enough to win the top goalscorer in 1990, 94 and 98. Ronaldo managed 8 in 2002 but last World Cup Klose got the gong with only 5.

I think it's ambitious of me to see Suarez scoring 6, sure. But people win with 6, and this is a value bet. If the World Cup is run 66 times this summer, I think he'd score enough goals more than once.

My two cents. Or ten euro, incidentally, as that's what I'm putting on.

Who's yor bet?

Juwwi

David Villa looks a great bet a 10/1 with torres out injured he might miss the start of the tournament.
villa takes the penos aswell and spain will score a bucket load of goals in that group.

Goldcupfav

www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/top-goalscorer

robbie1977

robbie1977 wrote: »

David Villa looks a great bet a 10/1 with torres out injured he might miss the start of the tournament.
villa takes the penos aswell and spain will score a bucket load of goals in that group.

Spain are WC bottlers, I'd be surprised if they made the semis

Kod-box

Spain of old yes, not this current squad though.

Im already on Messi and Argentina though, they will score a load but concede aload too.

Verance

Liam O wrote: »

Spain are WC bottlers, I'd be surprised if they made the semis

Bull****! :pac:

robbie1977 wrote: »

David Villa looks a great bet a 10/1 with torres out injured he might miss the start of the tournament.
villa takes the penos aswell and spain will score a bucket load of goals in that group.

Agree, very hard to see him out of the top four. Probably has the easiest group to work with, could have it wrapped up after a few games.

Juwwi

tevez at 50/1 looks way too big also.

just looking on oddschecker there is a few firms paying out 5 places while most are going 4 places.

Gillington

What happens if two players finish joint top scorer and you just have a win bet?

Juwwi

its setled as a dead head.
half ur stake at the full odds.

Goldcupfav

Gillington wrote: »

What happens if two players finish joint top scorer and you just have a win bet?

Half your stake at full odds! Or half your odds at full stake !

Gillington

Cheers fella's

Goldcupfav

Antonio Di Natale and RVP for me ! New Zealand will be the whipping boys of the world cup Italy should score plenty in that group and Dutch always do well in group stages !

Verance

Klaas-Jan Huntelaar looks far too big @ 50/1. I'm expecting the Netherlands to finally show their class and can see them going a long way. Have an easy enough group and an easy second round should they qualify. Huntelaar played in all 8 games in their 100 percent qualifying campaign and scored 3.

A definite each way play @ 50s - Skybet, Betfred, Blue square and 888 paying 5 places.

pwd

doubt uruguay will get far in the tournament. Agree that Tevez is good for the odds they've given him.

Robin Van Persie is 40-1. Seems good value. He was banging them in this season before he got injured, and he's back playing now. Netherlands and Argentina both have good chances of staying in until the latter rounds too.

pwd

3 almost simultaneous posts saying the dutch are likely to do well. odd eh?

x PyRo

RVP for me. Way over priced.

dxhound2005

Thierry Henri

Nulty

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Antonio Di Natale and RVP for me ! New Zealand will be the whipping boys of the world cup Italy should score plenty in that group and Dutch always do well in group stages !

Spot on IMO. Dutch seem to get plenty of goals in their matches. Very open games. RVP a poss but not a guaranteed out-and-out goalscorer. Very tempting though


As for Argentina. Theres too many top class strikers in their team. Bets on any but Messi are a waste IMO

Gillington

Nulty wrote: »

Spot on IMO. Dutch seem to get plenty of goals in their matches. Very open games. RVP a poss but not a guaranteed out-and-out goalscorer. Very tempting though


As for Argentina. Theres too many top class strikers in their team. Bets on any but Messi are a waste IMO

Would love to agree as it would cap an amazing season for him but his return for Argentina isnt as good as it is at club level.2 goals in 10 games in the qualifiers this season and 6 in 22 in the whole WC qualifying campaign doesnt do it for me.

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/players/stats?id=45843&cc=5739

8-10

Gillington wrote: »

6 in 22 in the whole WC qualifying campaign doesnt do it for me.

Um....22?

There's 10 teams in CONMEBOL, play each of the other 9 twice, 18 games no? Where were the other 4 games?

Kod-box

Argentina had a terrible qualifying round for the WC in general, Maradonna picked something like 70 different players throughout in the squad, alot of whom were utterly useless, i reckon once he gets his set, proper team they will gel better together and start banging them in.

Gillington

8-10 wrote: »

Um....22?

There's 10 teams in CONMEBOL, play each of the other 9 twice, 18 games no? Where were the other 4 games?

Yeah my bad,I just added up the World Cup Qualifying - CONMEBOL 07/08,08/09,09/10 stats from that page,dunno where the other 4 are from then?

Warper

Ya Villa and Fabiano are the 2 standouts for me. Argentina are in a handy group but who will play. Higuain is a worthy bet but Maradona is simply out of his mind.

I agree Spain are WC bottlers but their Group is ridiculously easy so I think I will back Villa for Top Scorer but Brazil are nailed on to win the tournament @ 5-1.

Gdep

Has anyone mentioned Ronaldo? Portugal are in a tough group but you have to think even brazil will concede against Ronaldo. You can get 18s for him. Fair enough they may struggle to get very far in the tournament but if they do you've got to imagine ronaldo will do most of the scoring.

x PyRo

Portugal won't get out of the groups, they're beyond brutal. Ronaldo or no Ronaldo.

Nozebleed

Pato 50/1

3hn2givr7mx1sc

I'm going Spain/Messi or Villa and Brazil/Messi or Villa.

Still not sure, think I'll go with Villa, though.

Gillington

If anyone spots a World Cup free kick and peno taker thing similar to This,will you's post it up here? Could come in handy.

Vurnon San Benito

No bulls**t.
Spain will bottle it. I've been hearing so much about 'this years team'.
In 2002 they nearly bottled it against an Ireland side without arguably their best player. 2006 they couldn't do it either.
I can't see 2010 being any different whatsoever.

I'd be looking at an Argentinian for the top-scorer. I think they'll come very close to winning the title. Kún Aguero maybe :P

Gillington

Being honest,if I was backing an Argentinian to be top goalscorer I would honestly wait til the day of their first match to see if he was in the starting XI.Nothing is guaranteed with maradona you wouldnt know who he was goona pick.Plus given their attacking players,Messi,tevez,Higuain,Milito,Aguero I think goals could be shared rather then one player scoring them all.

I dunno,dont mean to be putting people off but it seems a tall order picking Argentina's top scorer let alone the World Cup's!

Vurnon San Benito

Gillington wrote: »

Being honest,if I was backing an Argentinian to be top goalscorer I would honestly wait til the day of their first match to see if he was in the starting XI.Nothing is guaranteed with maradona you wouldnt know who he was goona pick.Plus given their attacking players,Messi,tevez,Higuain,Milito,Aguero I think goals could be shared rather then one player scoring them all.

I dunno,dont mean to be putting people off but it seems a tall order picking Argentina's top scorer let alone the World Cup's!

*cough* Jonas Gutierrez *cough*

mossysheehan

Nozebleed wrote: »

Pato 50/1

Have a tenner matched at 120 on betfair...

Now all i need is for him to recover from injury, make the world cup squad (which isn't looking likely) and muscle his way up the pecking order past fabiano and robinho... Not holding out much hope.

Have a few others aswel at big odds.

Di Natale
Aguero
Huntelaar
Van Persie

I'll decide on the ones i want to keep and lay the others off at shorter odds hopefully.

Still think Villa's the best bet tho. Or maybe even rooney:-o Might throw some on one of them aswel... This world cup is looking like its turning out quite expensive...

Gillington

Maybe the OP can rename this thread to World Cup fancies/tips or something and we keep everything in here?

I fancy the shít out of Serbia as dark horses.Not to win it but to go far enough anyways.4/1 to win group D or 4/1 straight forecast on Germany 1st Serbia second

8-10

Gillington wrote: »

Maybe the OP can rename this thread to World Cup fancies/tips or something and we keep everything in here?

Done. I don't quite agree with Serbia. In line with my original post Uruguay are my dark horses along with USA.

Edit: wait that didn't work at all! How do I change thread title sorry?

x PyRo

A Mod has to do it, But we don't have a constant one here at all.

ValueSeeker

Of the favourites, Wayne Rooney has to be the man. On fire and will benefit from a couple of weeks break. England's group is as predicted, total dross and they should come through with flying colours and plenty of goals.

Villa and Fabiano look strangely out of sorts in the last few weeks, Torres should be fit to share in pains goals and you never know what you're going to get with Messi in an Argentina shirt due to him being played in positions that don't suit.

Back with some value tips a little nearer the off.

Warper

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Of the favourites, Wayne Rooney has to be the man. On fire and will benefit from a couple of weeks break. England's group is as predicted, total dross and they should come through with flying colours and plenty of goals.

Villa and Fabiano look strangely out of sorts in the last few weeks, Torres should be fit to share in pains goals and you never know what you're going to get with Messi in an Argentina shirt due to him being played in positions that don't suit.

Back with some value tips a little nearer the off.

Luis Fabiano is banging in the goals since he came back and Villa is proven as Spains main goal-scorer.

These 2 standout for me - I backed the 2 of them yesterday @ 12-1 and 10-1 respectively. They also play for the 2 best teams in the comp.

dxhound2005

Anyone interested in the history of the thing this is from Wikipaedia. Probably has no bearing on this year but maybe 5 or 6 goals will be enough to win. I think I saw Frank Lampard on the betting at 66/1 could be worth a few bob.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup_awards

Gillington

I'm sure most here would have got the PP email or saw the Bargain Alert but you can back England @ 10/1 to win the world cup.Offer only available between 10-11 tomorrow morning

x PyRo

Max bet of a tenner though. Such a joke.

blocparty

will be looking to bet on van persie and villa

will wait till squads are announced but both are great value

im expecting both teams to do well this summer although spain are struggling with injuries

in 2008 i had villa with the dutch winning at 270, laid it off after the group stages for a huge profit.

will be looking to do something similar with rvp/spain and villa/dutch bets to compliment my other bets

will def be looking to trade all my bets as knockout tournaments like the world cup are so hard to predict, far too many variables

EDIT as a spurs fan its really hard to tip a gooner for anything other than worst diver award

Gillington

x PyRo wrote: »

Max bet of a tenner though. Such a joke.

Yeah it is very stingy of them alright.

Don't fancy England for it but if I did I'd be using my mates acc aswell as my own to get more on

3hn2givr7mx1sc

I'm putting €3 on Rooney top scorer e/w, will I have to give the bookies 3euro or 6euro like in horse racing?

Verance

6

derjackleah

Kod-box wrote: »

Spain of old yes, not this current squad though.:):):)

Im already on Messi and Argentina though, they will score a load but concede aload too.

messi is a good shout.:)
to be called one of the worlds best players messi needs to shine at the world cup.imo

Warper

x PyRo wrote: »

Max bet of a tenner though. Such a joke.

I think its a joke backing England to win the WC - full stop.

x PyRo

Warper wrote: »

I think its a joke backing England to win the WC - full stop.

Fair point, but saying you've such a brilliant special going on then only allowing each punter to win €100 is comical.

Verance

Will the PP special be on in the shops?

DB10

Right lads, what about Niklas Bendtner at 100-1?

Denmarks main player and striker, their best in the qualifying stages. Surely at those odds he is worth an each way bet.

Going a tenner E/W, will take home alot if he even comes 4th best. Btw do most shops offer the same as their website suggests?

ValueSeeker

DB10 wrote: »

Right lads, what about Niklas Bendtner at 100-1?

Denmarks main player and striker, their best in the qualifying stages. Surely at those odds he is worth an each way bet.

Going a tenner E/W, will take home alot if he even comes 4th best. Btw do most shops offer the same as their website suggests?

It's a fantastic bet mate.

It's a bet I got on myself last week. Try and get a firm paying 5 places. 25/1 on a top 5 is fantastic value considering their group(I expect this group to be a goalfest given the shambolic defending of the teams involved) and the fact Bendtner is their talisman and can score all types of goals. He will especially be a weapon from crosses against Japan.

13/2 on Group E being the highest scoring is also a great bet.

DB10

ValueSeeker wrote: »

It's a fantastic bet mate.

It's a bet I got on myself last week. Try and get a firm paying 5 places. 25/1 on a top 5 is fantastic value considering their group(I expect this group to be a goalfest given the shambolic defending of the teams involved) and the fact Bendtner is their talisman and can score all types of goals. He will especially be a weapon from crosses against Japan.

13/2 on Group E being the highest scoring is also a great bet.

Cheers mate. I have no online account so I'm just going to head to the shops. But will these firms offer the same odds as they do on their websites?

They better!