Am i Good at poker?

JONJO THE MISER

Hi guys only started playing online poker there last year, at first i made money then lost it all again a good few times. Then i took a break from it for a few months read a small bit about it and started playing again about 2 months ago, i went on a roll as the man says and started winning a few grand but alas i went on tilt:( and lost it all. Then i really started reading about how to play poker again and i started off last week by playing 0.25/0.50 nl thats all, before i used to play all diffrent levels perhaps that was my mistake, anyway this time i started with a bankroll of $500, now i know its early yet but so far ive played 3560 hands for a profit of $190 which i calculate as a BB of 5.3%. Ive read that you should be making anywhere between 1-5% BB. Now i know this is only a small sample but im only playing 1 table at a time and play tight, i was wondering what sample size i would need to know if i can make a profit at poker?
Now in the next few days i intend to play 2 maybe 3 tables at a time, i just gotta get used of it i guess playing 2-3 at a time. I usually play 4-5 hrs per day so if i play 2-3 tables i can treble the amount of hands i play.
Anyway the question is what sample size would i need to know if im any good? Thanks in advance guys, im new on this forum and kinnda new at pokerm so be nice:p.

wannabecraig

About 50K hands is a decent sample size at any limit, maybe even 100K hands.

Treehouse72

I played 3400 hands on Monday alone. So it really is a remarkably small sample and there is no way to judge whether you are good or bad from such a small sample.

I wouldn't even be thinking about micro-interpreting your stats until about 25,000 hands. And even at that point, your winnings/losings will not be what tells you if you are good or bad. Those could be down to variance one way or the other. But at that point you can probably look at your other stats over that sample and start drawing some conclusions. Concentrate on your positional play, bet sizing, range assigning and hand reading. Get those right and you'll start winning money (or losing slower!)

Fwiw, I've come to believe that 500,000 hands is the start of a meaningful sample with respect to your winrate. Other stats converge earlier, but your winrate never really settles down and is meaningless before this amount. I have heard too many stories of good players breaking even over 200,000 hands for that not to be the case.

Good luck!

JONJO THE MISER

Thanks Guys as i said i intend to play 3 tables from tomorrow for 5 hrs per day, hopefully i can get handle the 3 tables at a time because ive never tried it before, but i think its possible as i only play less than 10% of my hands. Id love to be able to play up to 8 tables at a time but my poor olde laptop can only fit in 4 and i dont like the cascade feature.

Treehouse72

Multi tabling is infinitely more difficult than people make out. Please don't think it's something you can just do, no problem. Even 3 tabling is not easy.

If I were you I would stay 2/3 tabling and just concentrate on the action and your opponants, don't worry about grinding out millions of hands. Much more important to get better than grind hands.

DAMO72

What site do you play on and whats your username so we can track your progress and give you feedback here

JONJO THE MISER

Treehouse72 wrote: »

Multi tabling is infinitely more difficult than people make out. Please don't think it's something you can just do, no problem. Even 3 tabling is not easy.

If I were you I would stay 2/3 tabling and just concentrate on the action and your opponants, don't worry about grinding out millions of hands. Much more important to get better than grind hands.

Yes i could not agree more with you, i really like to concentrate hard on my play so i dont think i could ever do more than 4 tables at a time.
Thanks for the advice:).

CoalBucket

I agree multi-tabling is extremely difficult. If you are just starting off you are prob better to stick to 1 or 2 tables. That way it is easier to work out your pot odds etc and watch player behaviour, betting paterns etc.

JONJO THE MISER

Well im up bright and early:D and ready to get down and be a grinder from today on playing 50nl, i intend to play 25,000 hands per week at 4 tables 9 hours per day. Ill post back when i get my first 25,000 finished hopefully in the next 7 days or earlier and give my winrate. Cheers for the advice so far.
P.S Im currently playing with boylepoker and they dont offer any rakeback, am i better off going with a site that offers rakeback as ive calculated that i should be getting $48 per day from a site with 30% rakeback, or is the vip points you get with Boyles Just as good as this?

Daithio9

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Well im up bright and early:D and ready to get down and be a grinder from today on playing 50nl, i intend to play 25,000 hands per week at 4 tables 9 hours per day. Ill post back when i get my first 25,000 finished hopefully in the next 7 days or earlier and give my winrate. Cheers for the advice so far.
P.S Im currently playing with boylepoker and they dont offer any rakeback, am i better off going with a site that offers rakeback as ive calculated that i should be getting $48 per day from a site with 30% rakeback, or is the vip points you get with Boyles Just as good as this?

You said in your OP that your bankroll was $500 and you're up $190 so have you lodged some more money or is your bankroll now $690?.

JONJO THE MISER

Daithio9 wrote: »

You said in your OP that your bankroll was $500 and you're up $190 so have you lodged some more money or is your bankroll now $690?.

Ive lodged more to get me to 50 buy inns, i now have $2500 in my account to play 50nl, i read you need at least this so i decided to do it right and make a go at it, hopefully i want to have 100 buy inns before too long, as i said im a really tight player and i really am quiet cautious so i would prefer to have 100 buy inns but 50 will do for now i guess.

Daithio9

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Ive lodged more to get me to 50 buy inns, i now have $2500 in my account to play 50nl, i read you need at least this so i decided to do it right and make a go at it, hopefully i want to have 100 buy inns before too long, as i said im a really tight player and i really am quiet cautious so i would prefer to have 100 buy inns but 50 will do for now i guess.

Spot on good man, I think it's fair to say you won't have any BR management issues.
Best of luck with it and let us know how you get on.

JONJO THE MISER

Daithio9 wrote: »

Spot on good man, I think it's fair to say you won't have any BR management issues.
Best of luck with it and let us know how you get on.

Cheers, im gonna play 100,000 hands at 50NL before i move up to 100NL and hopefully after another 100,000 my target will be to get to 200NL and stay there for good. Id be more than happy at this level if i can get a good winrate, as i said im very cautious so i would be more than happy with say a 1% bb playing 100,000 hands per month plus my rakeback.

wannabecraig

I'm kinda interested in this. Just so you know the difference in levels between 50NL and 200NL is huge imo. I'd be concerned for you tbh. Not sure about how many hands you've clocked total on-line and there is money to be made, but it's not as easy as you make it sound. Oh and if you're not getting at least 40% rakeback on a site you need to move. Loads of RB deals out there and it can count toward a large part of your poker income.

JONJO THE MISER

Yeah ive played 200nl before and have made some good money at it but i have not calculated my win rate or how many hands i played but thats mostly what i had played last year before loosing it all on tilt when i went up to 1000nl:(, so i think i was proftable at 200nl but im Just gonna start again at 50nl and work my way up this time.

wannabecraig

K, well you're crazy playing without rakeback, you're just giving away money.

Treehouse72

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Cheers, im gonna play 100,000 hands at 50NL before i move up to 100NL and hopefully after another 100,000 my target will be to get to 200NL and stay there for good. Id be more than happy at this level if i can get a good winrate, as i said im very cautious so i would be more than happy with say a 1% bb playing 100,000 hands per month plus my rakeback.

Whoooooooaaaaaa there!

Jonjo, if you have never done this before, you have no conception how hard it is. If you are planning on 2 or 3 tabling, it will be impossible. I don't mean difficult by the way - I mean impossible. I can't even play 100k hands a month 6-tabling full time. 6-tabling for between 3 and 5 hours a day, every day, I usually play about 55,000 hands a month, and I am an experienced player used to the grind. For a newb, it would destroy you and your bankroll.

You might think that all you need to do is play 7 or 8 hours a day. Again, this is impossible. Most players take 8 hours to get in 4 or 5 hours of actual game time. Don't forget, every minute you are at the table you are "working". You are concentrating and using brain energy. Contrast that with a normal job where you can take a whole morning to send 1 email, punctuated by fag breaks and of course lunch. So in an 8 hour work day you probably only do about 4 hours actual "work". It is the same in poker - you cannot play a full 8 hours. One in a million players can do this and chances are you are not one of them.

You need to do a lot more research into your plans because I sense some naivity in your posts. No disrespect, but you may not thought this through enough.

wannabecraig

Not back to keep us updated... That usually only means one thing!

joekeville

KABOOOOM

AdMMM

wannabecraig wrote: »

Not back to keep us updated... That usually only means one thing!

I'd be impressed if he managed to lose 50bi's in a day. Would surpass even my own impressive record!

Daithio9

wannabecraig wrote: »

Not back to keep us updated... That usually only means one thing!

Well in fairness he's probably too busy grinding 9+ hours a day 4 tabling to reach his near impossible target of 25k hands a week, that and his brain is probably fried after only one day at the sick realisation of the enormity of the task.

JONJO THE MISER

Hi guys Just got up, my first day yesterday and i put in approx 9.5 hrs in total playing mostly 4 tables sometimes going down to 3, i started at 5.30 and finished 3.15 with maybe a hour off. Didnt really bother me in the slightest as im usually on the internet anyway but i do agree it takes a lot of concentration but im no stranger to hard ork so i dont mind. Anyway yesterday i played 3158 hands, the most i lost in this session was roughly 2.5 buyins and i finished up the night with a profit of $86 wich equals a win rate of 2.8 bb over the 3158 hands.
Hopefully today ill put in another 3-4 thousand hands and will keep ye guys updated.

Treehouse72

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Hi guys Just got up, my first day yesterday and i put in approx 9.5 hrs in total playing mostly 4 tables sometimes going down to 3, i started at 5.30 and finished 3.15 with maybe a hour off. Didnt really bother me in the slightest as im usually on the internet anyway but i do agree it takes a lot of concentration but im no stranger to hard ork so i dont mind. Anyway yesterday i played 3158 hands, the most i lost in this session was roughly 2.5 buyins and i finished up the night with a profit of $86 wich equals a win rate of 2.8 bb over the 3158 hands.
Hopefully today ill put in another 3-4 thousand hands and will keep ye guys updated.

lol. Ok, totally ignore my advice then!

But let me make you this promise: after 10 days of playing 9.5 hours a day you will be a wreck. Your game will be sub-optimal, your sleep pattern will be disrupted, your diet may be effected and you will probably need exercise. After 2 weeks of this, you'll be a zombie. After a month, I shudder to think. After 2 months, you might actually be dead. And just wait till you have a whole bunch of losing days in a row. Have you ever played for 9 hours losing buy-in after buy-in after buy-in? Ever got up the next day and have the exact same thing happen? I tell you JonJo, this is a tough, tough thing to handle.

I know you don't believe me now. People starting out on their poker journey always overestimate how much they'll play, underestimate varience, overestimate their rakeback, overestimate their long term winrate and underestimate the enormous psychological toll playing poker takes. You seem to be fitting this pattern perfectly.

Let me give you a good example. I notice you are now 4 tabling. Earlier in the week you were thinking about 2 and 3 tabling. Already, your plans are going off track. I cannot think of a more perfect example of how the required discipline slips. Also, if you are playing that much, you can't be taking breaks. Another major, major error in grinding. Playing too many tables and playing too long are two textbook beginner mistakes. When you are making textbook mistakes and you are getting advice of such, you really, really should listen.

Anyway, as I say, you don't believe me now. That's fine, you need to make your own mistakes. But mark my words you will come to see what I'm talking about as each day (each hour) passes. Look forward to your report in 6 weeks.

Ace2007

Treehouse72 wrote: »

Whoooooooaaaaaa there!

Jonjo, if you have never done this before, you have no conception how hard it is. If you are planning on 2 or 3 tabling, it will be impossible. I don't mean difficult by the way - I mean impossible. I can't even play 100k hands a month 6-tabling full time. 6-tabling for between 3 and 5 hours a day, every day, I usually play about 55,000 hands a month, and I am an experienced player used to the grind. For a newb, it would destroy you and your bankroll.

You might think that all you need to do is play 7 or 8 hours a day. Again, this is impossible. Most players take 8 hours to get in 4 or 5 hours of actual game time. Don't forget, every minute you are at the table you are "working". You are concentrating and using brain energy. Contrast that with a normal job where you can take a whole morning to send 1 email, punctuated by fag breaks and of course lunch. So in an 8 hour work day you probably only do about 4 hours actual "work". It is the same in poker - you cannot play a full 8 hours. One in a million players can do this and chances are you are not one of them.

You need to do a lot more research into your plans because I sense some naivity in your posts. No disrespect, but you may not thought this through enough.

Lex from HSP managed to play 42K hands a day and has done over 160K a week in the past - impossible is nothing...

wannabecraig

I'm not looking forward to your first major downswing. I've seen what it does to people, even at these limits, when they're depending on the money as a source of income and it's scary. Bad beats turn into bad play, which turns into sleepless nights. I would listen to treehouse very carefully as he seems to be making most sense.

Please tell me you're sorted a rakeback deal too...

JONJO THE MISER

Alright Guys but there are plenty of people who Grind for a living, im Just starting out so give me a break, anyway ye guys might be right but let me find out for myself:).
No i havent sorted out Rakeback yet but i will have to next week, the problem i have is that i play on BoylePoker and the I Poker network dont allow rakeback, they instead have a vip scheme. I like boylepoker as i can withdraw in the shops but theres no doubt im losing money by not having Rakeback, i will certainly get it sorted next Monday, but i dont know which site to JOin which has the best Rakeback, if ye guys could give me any suggestions that would be great.:)

joekeville

What username do u go under ?

5Aces

http://www.rakeback.com/


You say you play 1 in every 10 hands. That might be enough to break even at 50NL if you have bad players who pay you off but you will lose money at higher limits and that is a guarantee and is the reason you ran from 50NL to 1000NL to zero. Its not a mystery, its better players knowing how to exploit you.

To check your stats there is popular software called holdem manager - http://www.holdemmanager.com/ - its pretty much a requirement if you are going to be putting in those hours with 4 tables and it has additional software in the package to analise your playing and tell you where your making mistakes.

I agree that you should stay at NL50 for the first 100,000 hands then you can decide after how many buyins you need for your stakes/playing style.

Good luck lad as as it was said you should post your username so that maybe you can get a bit of feedback from the regulars.

Daithio9

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Alright Guys but there are plenty of people who Grind for a living, im Just starting out so give me a break, anyway ye guys might be right but let me find out for myself:).
No i havent sorted out Rakeback yet but i will have to next week, the problem i have is that i play on BoylePoker and the I Poker network dont allow rakeback, they instead have a vip scheme. I like boylepoker as i can withdraw in the shops but theres no doubt im losing money by not having Rakeback, i will certainly get it sorted next Monday, but i dont know which site to JOin which has the best Rakeback, if ye guys could give me any suggestions that would be great.:)

Hey JONJO if you like playing on ipoker then have a look at this thread over on 2+2 http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/49/internet-bonuses/ipoker-vip-skins-loyalty-programs-compared-431363/ , it compares all the VIP deals on ipoker and with a bit of research you'll find the best VIP deal. With regard to moving your money around from site to site, you should set up a moneybookers account and link it to your bank account, you'll be able to easily transfer money between sites and back to your bank account.

JONJO THE MISER

Quick update guys yesterday i played 4438 hands:eek:, i can now play 6 sometimes 7 tables at a time but i think i will stick with the 6 in future and there was me last week only ever been able to play 3 max tables at a time:D, the more i play the more comfortable i feel playing more tables.
Anyway i played 4438 hands at 50nl for a profit rounded off of $60 which i calculated to be a bb of 1.4% for yesterday.

Daithio9

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Quick update guys yesterday i played 4438 hands:eek:, i can now play 6 sometimes 7 tables at a time but i think i will stick with the 6 in future and there was me last week only ever been able to play 3 max tables at a time:D, the more i play the more comfortable i feel playing more tables.
Anyway i played 4438 hands at 50nl for a profit rounded off of $60 which i calculated to be a bb of 1.4% for yesterday.

Is that 6max of full ring?.
Have you got holdem manager yet?.