Dublin Metrolink (just Metrolink posts here -see post #1 )

strassenwo!f

Given that there is currently a lull in public spending, and probably considerable time before there will be public investment on the scale required to build the DART underground project and the metronorth, I think now would be a good time to see the following:

(a) the routes which were examined by the various state transport bodies for the interconnector, in their efforts to increase the overall DART capacity to around 100 million; and

(b) any mention - just even a mention - of St. Stephen's Green as a possible major transport interchange location, prior to Mammy O'Rourke's decision to cut the LUAS short of going through the city centre (and all of its' obvious problems) in any official document.

There are seemingly very big problems with locations in the city centre like College Green being a major interchange. We've been told on this thread that they're not engineering problems, and nor are they problems with disruption. But they are, apparently, major.

Let's see the facts. There is yet time to get it right.

maninasia

Jack Noble wrote: »

You suggested Chinese or Japanese sources but, according to John Corrigan, head of the National Treasury Management Agency - which sells and manages Irish sovereign debt - Ireland is currently locked out of Asian debt markets because Irish debt is rated as 'junk' by Moodys which prevents many institutions from purchasing it.


Until Moodys upgrades Irish debt to investment grade - and no one can say when that will be or even if it will happen at all - Chinese or Japanese debt will not be on the radar for investments backed by the Irish State.

This kind of makes sense, until you look into it. The difference between Thai debt and Irish debt is not very big. Thai debt is Ba1 and Irish debt is Baa1. Here is a summary of the rating system.

https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004

Meanwhile, Thailand has been in an ongoing serious political crisis for many years, has had a major natural disaster (floods a couple of years back) and once again has no government. Yet the Japanese and Chinese still bid for the high speed rail project. Interesting isn't it?

Ireland may not have an excellent credit rating but it is FAR more stable and has the backing of the EU behind it and membership of the eurozone. The demand is there for us of such a system and demographics strongly support it (MN/DU). I know which one would look like a better investment and it's not a high speed rail line in Thailand! ?Metro North is actually a real blue chip investment with guaranteed returns and all trends supporting it's viability far into the future.


I appreciate there may be some initial convincing, and possibly a further upgrade (I don't believe blanket statements from Irish national agencies about Ireland let alone Asia...do you?) but I don't think raising debt overseas should be the problem that it is made out to be, ESPECIALLY if you use some of their contractors and rolling stock. A project of Metro North size would be fairly easily to fund from Chinese state banks alone. So that's why I said there may be some local/European resistance in terms of taking away 'bizness' from interested parties.

I'd also say there's also a fair bit of 'we don't need no Chinese like the Africans and the Asians to build it for us' going on...wouldn't you?

Snobbery will get you nice complicated discussion on the internet, some desperate work-arounds like the idea of the Dart spur to the airport, but no actual proper metro or underground!

http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1228663/chinese-bidders-roll-asia-rail-projects

Chinese are currently involved in subway and rail projects in the Philippines, Cambodia, India, Laos, Thailand, Iran and probably more places with dodgy credit ratings or political stability issues. They've built 18 subway systems all over China with many more in the works. They also have major projects all over Africa.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303482504579177830819719254
In fact if any country has the expertise to build subways, it's the Chinese.

In the world's most extensive subway-development effort, at least 26 Chinese cities are constructing or expanding lines, according to the government's Transportation Technology Development and Planning Research Center. The think tank counts another 11 cities with urban railway plans.

Victor

maninasia wrote: »

Chinese are currently involved in subway and rail projects in the Philippines, Cambodia, India, Laos, Thailand, Iran and probably more places with dodgy credit ratings or political stability issues. They've built 18 subway systems all over China with many more in the works. They also have major projects all over Africa.

You make it sound like every Chinese person is part of a monolith involved in constructing railway systems. You might as well say that "Westerners have built lots of railways" - you would be labelling a smaller group of people.

maninasia

I'm using shorthand obviously to refer to Chinese contractors often supported by Chinese state banks.

You know like

'the Paddys'

'the Brits'

'the Germans'

'the Japanese'

Is this surprising or comment worthy?

Would you like to comment on the substance of the debate?

OssianSmyth

Mitsui, HSBC, MTR (from HK) and Macquarie Capital were all bidders to finance Metro North in 2009.

In 2010 Patrick Honohan publicly asked the Chinese to consider buying an Irish bank. So there is an open policy of welcoming Asian investment.

(skip to 4:20)
http://www.rte.ie/podcasts/2010/pc/pod-v-10111011m10snewsatonea.mp3

golfwallah

maninasia wrote: »

Chinese are currently involved in subway and rail projects in the Philippines, Cambodia, India, Laos, Thailand, Iran and probably more places with dodgy credit ratings or political stability issues. They've built 18 subway systems all over China with many more in the works. They also have major projects all over Africa.

Victor wrote: »

You make it sound like every Chinese person is part of a monolith involved in constructing railway systems. You might as well say that "Westerners have built lots of railways" - you would be labelling a smaller group of people.

What does it matter who builds and finances Metro North, once it gets built and the initial construction and long term running costs are the most competitive offerings around?

Sounds to me like the Chinese have been gaining a lot of modern railway building know how in the last 15 years. So, why not leverage off that expertise rather than opt for a more expensive "nearer to home" solution with a longer learning curve?

From an economic perspective, we should be more interested in sticking to and developing what we're good at and buying in major one-off capital projects where others have better expertise than ourselves or elsewhere in Europe.

I'm sure our government could also push for extra exports from Ireland to China as part of the deal. Win Win all round!!

Jack Noble

Transport Minister Leo Varadkar gave an interesting speech on Monday at a Shift2Rail* briefing held in Dublin.

http://www.dttas.ie/speeches/2013/speech-minister-transport-tourism-sport-leo-varadkar-shift2rail-briefing-dublin

Here's the key paragraph:

I recently met with officials from the EU Commission and the Ten-T Executive Agency in Brussels who confirmed their positive views towards the Dart Underground. The EIB had also indicated a keen interest in supporting DU and this interest was confirmed to me at a meeting with the EIB Management Board on 29 April last. The Dart Underground has been included in the new Ten-T Core Network and is part of one of the nine Core Corridors. Dart Underground is likely to be a priority in the context of the next capital plan subject to an appropriate funding package being developed.

As myself and others have pointed out on this thread and the Dart Underground thread, DU is very much still in play - and here is Leo saying it's game on for the post-2015 capital plan.

Obviously, it will be dependent on the state of the economy in 2015/16 but today's Q3 GDP/GNP figures and the recent employment data are grounds for optimism that the worst is behind us and we can look forward to a growing economy over the next few years and beyond.

And, as I have also pointed out, if Dart is built in the latter half of the decade, then that will make Metro a much more attractive prospect post-2020.

*For those who are interested, here's who Shift2Rail are. http://www.shift2rail.org/

robd

Jack Noble wrote: »

Transport Minister Leo Varadkar gave an interesting speech on Monday at a Shift2Rail* briefing held in Dublin.

Just bear in mind he's announcing stuff to start during the term of the next government which isn't all that meaningful given the likely shift in votes. It's also extremely unlikely he'd be Transport Minister then either way.

Jack Noble

robd wrote: »

Just bear in mind he's announcing stuff to start during the term of the next government which isn't all that meaningful given the likely shift in votes. It's also extremely unlikely he'd be Transport Minister then either way.

He's giving a speech as Minister for Transport, not as Leo Varadkar TD - thus he is outlining current DOT policy on the matter, not Leo's own preference.

Should Leo move to Health next year (poor fecker if he does), then his successor will be promoting the same policy on behalf of the department and govt while it remains DOT/govt policy.

Should the govt announce in 2015 it is to proceed with DU in 2016, then the Opposition parties/independents are hardly going to object now, are they - because (a) it was FF's policy to begin with and (b) it's precisely the type of large stimulus/public works project SF and left wing TDs such as Joe Higgins and Clare Daly have been calling for since 2008/2009.

And from a political point of view, DU is a much easier 'sell' to the public because it will benefit so many areas/counties/constituencies in the short (jobs), medium (better public transport in DTA) and long (electrification and integration of national rail network and link to Dublin Airport) terms.

Sam Russell

Jack Noble wrote: »

And from a political point of view, DU is a much easier 'sell' to the public because it will benefit so many areas/counties/constituencies in the short (jobs), medium (better public transport in DTA) and long (electrification and integration of national rail network and link to Dublin Airport) terms.

Dublin Underground does nothing for any link to the Airport.

Jack Noble

Sam Russell wrote: »

Dublin Underground does nothing for any link to the Airport.

You may want to tell IE that because they under the impression it does and have presented a proposal for just such a link to the Department.

Jack Noble

Leo Varadkar on with Matt Cooper on the Last Word now - he has just said future public transport investment will need to be rail-based.

He specifically mentioned Dart Underground again. Also mentioned serving Swords and Airport, followed by developing BRT - but no mention of Metro North.

Sam Russell

Jack Noble wrote: »

You may want to tell IE that because they under the impression it does and have presented a proposal for just such a link to the Department.

Metro North goes to the airport. DU only goes E/W.

IE see them both as the same thing.

Jack Noble

Sam Russell wrote: »

Metro North goes to the airport. DU only goes E/W.

IE see them both as the same thing.

IE has proposed a Dart spur to the airport off the Northern Line at Clongriffin/Grange Road which would allow direct Airport-SSG-Heuston services via the Dart Underground tunnel.

Its long-term strategy is to upgrade and electrify the Cork, Limerick and Galway lines that will allow trains to directly serve the airport through the DU tunnel. Given much of the Northern line will be electric too, the Belfast line can also be upgraged to serve DUB in conjunction with the NI Executive/UK govt and Translink.

Those plans do not preclude the development of Metro North because it is much more than an 'airport metro'. It is a public transport line serving large population and employment areas with multiple trip generators along the line - of which the airport is just one, albeit a major one.

Sam Russell

Are you saying the Clogriffin/Airport spur is part of DU?

Surely that is a minor project that could/should be done now. It is across open countryside, and the only problem it would face is getting access to the airport. Pity Dublin Airport Authority did not envisage such a link when they built T2.

robd

Jack Noble wrote: »

He's giving a speech as Minister for Transport, not as Leo Varadkar TD - thus he is outlining current DOT policy on the matter, not Leo's own preference.
...

Yep. As per every other Minister for transport since 1980. Still waiting and cynical.

Don't get me wrong it's much needed and a great project but Leo has proved to be a wind bag. Making noise on everything from Health do Finance. Very clear his interests are in his political career. I don't/won't believe announcement's on this project that won't start until next government.

History !!!!!

lucernarian

I'd still give Pat Rabbite the gong for the minister who talks about everything to every journo except about things under his own brief.

I suspect that such a Dart spur may well allow for a link onwards to Swords and making the market served reasonably larger. I don't know if it's possible to get anywhere near the centre of Swords - defined by me as the Lord Mayor's pub - using overground double-track rail or even single track for the last km.

Jack Noble

Sam Russell wrote: »

Are you saying the Clogriffin/Airport spur is part of DU?

Surely that is a minor project that could/should be done now. It is across open countryside, and the only problem it would face is getting access to the airport. Pity Dublin Airport Authority did not envisage such a link when they built T2.

IE appear to have now lumped it in as part of the overall Dart Underground project. It also appears to have been factored into a suggested post-DU Dart schedule outlined in the most recent Business Case on the IE website because four trains an hour are scheduled to operate between Grange Road (Clongriffin) and Inchicore.

And remember, Dart Underground is more than simply the tunnel and stations - the project covers the wider expansion of the Dart network. It also includes electrification of the Northern, Maynooth and Kildare lines, Kildare Route Project Phase 2, and closure/grade separation of level crossings and new rolling stock.

In the overall scale of a circa €4bn scheme, the estimated €200m for the airport spur really isn't a major cost factor.

It can be done now if the political will is there but it would have an impact on the current Dart/Commuter schedule north of Clongriffin.

Jack Noble

robd wrote: »

Yep. As per every other Minister for transport since 1980. Still waiting and cynical.

Don't get me wrong it's much needed and a great project but Leo has proved to be a wind bag. Making noise on everything from Health do Finance. Very clear his interests are in his political career. I don't/won't believe announcement's on this project that won't start until next government.

History !!!!!

I'm cynical about politicians myself - it comes from 20 years of dealing with them on a daily basis.

However, what stalled Dart and Metro was the economic collapse of 2008-2010. The State could no longer afford its share of the PPP, never mind the full cost one one, never mind both projects, and Ireland was shut out of international credit markets on the private sector side.

The latter has certainly changed now that we are back to long-term lending rates to Ireland of under 4%, while EIB and other EU money under TEN-T is available for Dart Underground. And economic growth up to 2015 and beyond - the big known unknown in the equation - should ensure the State can afford its share of the project given it will be over a 6 to 8-year timeframe.

But like everything politicians say and do, I just find it interesting that Leo has raised Dart Underground twice in the space of a few days.

Why now?

golfwallah

Jack Noble wrote: »

IE appear to have now lumped it in as part of the overall Dart Underground project. It also appears to have been factored into a suggested post-DU Dart schedule outlined in the most recent Business Case on the IE website because four trains an hour are scheduled to operate between Grange Road (Clongriffin) and Inchicore.

And remember, Dart Underground is more than simply the tunnel and stations - the project covers the wider expansion of the Dart network. It also includes electrification of the Northern, Maynooth and Kildare lines, Kildare Route Project Phase 2, and closure/grade separation of level crossings and new rolling stock.

In the overall scale of a circa €4bn scheme, the estimated €200m for the airport spur really isn't a major cost factor.

It can be done now if the political will is there but it would have an impact on the current Dart/Commuter schedule north of Clongriffin.

Given the current state of the country's finances, how and when could this project be financed?

Jack Noble

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I'd still give Pat Rabbite the gong for the minister who talks about everything to every journo except about things under his own brief.

I suspect that such a Dart spur may well allow for a link onwards to Swords and making the market served reasonably larger. I don't know if it's possible to get anywhere near the centre of Swords - defined by me as the Lord Mayor's pub - using overground double-track rail or even single track for the last km.

Any Dart spur to the airport will not take away the need for Metro North given it serves much more than the airport.

Jack Noble

golfwallah wrote: »

Given the current state of the country's finances, how and when could this project be financed?

From what I understand, it would be a PPP assisted by EIB/EU funding made up of:

50% private sector
Up to 30% EU funding under TEN-T
Around €500m loan from EIB
Balance from exchequer.

Given the entire project will cost circa €4bn and take 6 to 8 years to complete, that means the State will have to find between €700m and €1bn, depending on the other contributions, in the period 2016 to 2022/24.

That should not be as difficult as it appear today, in an economy that is growing again.

TheBandicoot

What kind of station would IE have at the end of the airport spur? Are there any plans on this spur available? If it's just a simple two platform +crossovers affair like the current Docklands station it might not be suitable for operating long distance intercity services to Cork/the west in addition to regular airport DART services.

LXFlyer

There's never been any suggestion from IE of anything but DART trains serving the Airport - other services would connect at Clongriffen, Pearse and Heuston.

TheBandicoot

lxflyer wrote: »

There's never been any suggestion from IE of anything but DART trains serving the Airport - other services would connect at Clongriffen, Pearse and Heuston.

Yes, that makes much more sense to me. The tunnel section is only for DARTs, Heuston remains the mainline intercity station, but now is more accessible,

strassenwo!f

Jack Noble wrote: »

IE has proposed a Dart spur to the airport off the Northern Line at Clongriffin/Grange Road which would allow direct Airport-SSG-Heuston services via the Dart Underground tunnel.

Its long-term strategy is to upgrade and electrify the Cork, Limerick and Galway lines that will allow trains to directly serve the airport through the DU tunnel. Given much of the Northern line will be electric too, the Belfast line can also be upgraged to serve DUB in conjunction with the NI Executive/UK govt and Translink.

Those plans do not preclude the development of Metro North because it is much more than an 'airport metro'. It is a public transport line serving large population and employment areas with multiple trip generators along the line - of which the airport is just one, albeit a major one.

Could some kind person help me to understand the bit which I have emboldened?

The metro west is still part of the current infrastructure plans, even if it's not going to be going ahead any time soon.

The metro west will allow people to travel between selected destinations in West Dublin, and will allow them to change if they wish to get into the city.

But there are many people along the metro west route who wish to get into the city, every day, and who will do for the next donkeys years. Indeed, there are surely more people along the metro west route who wish, daily, to get into and out of the city, than who wish to travel between locations along the metro west route.

I realise that one of the important original plans for the original major East-West route across Dublin, i.e. the direct, rapid, rail link between the biggest population centres in County Dublin (that is, the planned Tallaght-City Centre rail line) has been squandered by the planners.

But there are other areas of West Dublin (basically those suburbs between the Hazelhatch line and the Maynooth line) which could benefit from a direct rail link to and from the city, using the considerable excess capacity inherent in the DART underground proposals.

This would involve upgrading the metro west plans, north of the wasted Tallaght bit, to a heavy rail arrangement which could go through the interconnector.

(And maybe potentially adding one or more other lines through populated western suburbs to enable even better connections between the city centre and West Dublin, via the interconnector).

This would enable people from populated suburbs in West Dublin to get rapidly into the city, daily, and out of the city, daily.

Overall, this seems to me a better use of available cash than electrifying all the main lines in the country so that people in provincial areas can travel through the tunnel a couple of times a year.

Victor

Sam Russell wrote: »

Are you saying the Clogriffin/Airport spur is part of DU?

Surely that is a minor project that could/should be done now. It is across open countryside, and the only problem it would face is getting access to the airport. Pity Dublin Airport Authority did not envisage such a link when they built T2.

Currently, adding the airport spur would only really benefit people going between the airport and the corridor between Connolly and Belfast, while at the same time failing to address the fact that the Malahide-Connolly section already suffers from congestion.

D.L.R.

Victor wrote: »

Currently, adding the airport spur would only really benefit people going between the airport and the corridor between Connolly and Belfast, while at the same time failing to address the fact that the Malahide-Connolly section already suffers from congestion.

We need to quad the northern line, but god knows how.

murphaph

It'll require serious CPO but it is inevitable in the long run.

monument

murphaph wrote: »

It'll require serious CPO but it is inevitable in the long run.

Nothing is inevitable.

There are other long run options, such as reserving the current northern line for Dart services and routing intercity via the airport. Something like these options:

(See attached, can't resize at the moment)