Dublin Metrolink (just Metrolink posts here -see post #1 )

antoobrien

bk wrote: »

As Dublin has well over a third of the national population and is at the center of the Irish economy and supports the rest of the country,

Unless the population has shrunk to less than 3.75m (its 4.58) it definitely does not have 1/3 of the population - I suspect you used table 1, which also calls out the local authority areas, instead of table 2 which only lists the population of each counties. However I agree that Dublin has a substantial population base and effect on the economy - that's not in question. The national benefit of a local project is (I suggest you take a look at the M17/18 threads in the roads forum for more of this type of argument - there are several people who call M17 a commuter route, while others believe that it can be used to stimulate development of the area). I fail to see how this is any more vital to the national interest than WRC might be (both are perceived to be a waste of money by many) if it were used correctly.

bk wrote: »

any infrastructure project in Dublin is fundamentally a national project.

Flawed logic and damned arrogant i.m.o. - good for Dublin does not automatically mean good for the country. Economically right now it could be argued that good for Dublin is actually bad for the country as it re-enforces the cost of living and employment, both of which need to drop for us to become competitive. It's all well and good paypal announcing 200 jobs in blanch, but not everyone can do those types of jobs and we're being priced out of various markets & industries that we could do well in.

Besides which Dublin is only a few years away from not being able to support its current population, hence proposals like the artificial lake to supply drinking water. Before we start building things that are designed to focus employment on an area, such as metro north it had better be able to support itself. Before we even think about building MN (or the lake) we should be pumping money into the water infrastructure to ensure that everything else is ready.

bk wrote: »

Going by your logic, then the Western Rail Corridor should have been funded by the counties of the west and the motorway network by the counties they go through.

I actually would support this idea if it meant the County Councils could raise the tax rather then the government. It would result in more tax money staying in Dublin, projects wasteful of tax money like the WRC not going ahead and would make MN and DU much more likely to go ahead.

WRC and the motorways are good examples of attempts at national level infrastructure, they run through several counties to the intended benefit of the region. On WRC it is intended (no matter how badly managed and implemented) to serve the area from Limerick to Sligo - which is nearly the length of the eastern seaboard from Dundalk to Rosslare. Besides I don't see how it should be so bad to link the next 3 major population centers (in the republic) by road or rail (and i.m.o. it was a mistake to do Limerick-Galway instead of Galway-Sligo). Personally I'd love to see IE lose control of WRC, then it might be run like it's actually intended to be a business someday but that's beside the point.

But lets flip the point on the WRC's status as a waste of money over, if (as I fear) MN is run anywhere nearly as poorly as WRC why the hell would we want to waste 10-20 times the cost of WRC?

Aard wrote: »

Yeah the idea of people down the country being up in arms about "national" funding for a Dublin project is a perfect example of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

And when Dublin taxpayers are asked to stump up €200m for Glaus, which is a project that will only benefit Galway city much like MN will only benefit part of North Dublin, they should just take it lying down?

monument

Dublin 1,270,603
Kildare 209,955
Meath 184,034
Wicklow 136,448
Greater Dublin Area 1,801,040
State 4,581,269

Dublin is just shy of 30% of the State's population and the Greater Dublin Area is just under 40% of it.

The actual population increase since the last census in all of Dublin City and Co (not including the GDA) is 83,427.

Fingal which Metro North is aiming to serve grew the most in Dublin -- 13.8% or 33,059. It was the third fastest growing "county" in this year's census.

antoobrien

monument wrote: »

Dublin 1,270,603
Kildare 209,955
Meath 184,034
Wicklow 136,448
Greater Dublin Area 1,801,040
State 4,581,269

Dublin is just shy of 30% of the State's population and the Greater Dublin Area is just under 40% of it.

The actual population increase since the last census in all of Dublin City and Co (not including the GDA) is 83,427.

Fingal which Metro North is aiming to serve grew the most in Dublin -- 13.8% or 33,059. It was the third fastest growing "county" in this year's census.

Population being served by MN approx 250k - 350k (Dublin Central, North, North West and being generous North Central electoral areas) with no benefit to the GDA. Can we really justify spending (at the most optimistic cost of 2.5 billion) over €7m - €10m per head on a local project?

FreudianSlippers

antoobrien wrote: »

Population being served by MN approx 250k - 350k (Dublin Central, North, North West and being generous North Central electoral areas) with no benefit to the GDA. Can we really justify spending (at the most optimistic cost of 2.5 billion) over €7m - €10m per head on a local project?

That's fairly short-sighted isn't it, technically it should also be considered to serve any areas covered by luas or dart services as well since there will be connection.

markpb

antoobrien wrote: »

Flawed logic and damned arrogant i.m.o. - good for Dublin does not automatically mean good for the country.

Dublin generates more tax than it spends meaning that almost all of the rest of the country benefits from Dublins success. If Metro North makes Dublin more efficient and more successful, it means even more cash to be spent on the rest of the country. You can argue that it's arrogant to suggest that but the CSO figures back that up.

Economically right now it could be argued that good for Dublin is actually bad for the country as it re-enforces the cost of living and employment, both of which need to drop for us to become competitive. It's all well and good paypal announcing 200 jobs in blanch, but not everyone can do those types of jobs and we're being priced out of various markets & industries that we could do well in.

What on earth are you saying? I can't get my head around that paragraph at all. How does building Metro North make us less competitive?

monument

With the following served:

Dublin Airport
DCU
Croke Park
The Matter
The Rotunda
TCD
O'Connell Street area
Temple Bar
Grafton Street and St Stephen's Green areas
Luas red and green lines
Dart

...It's some how just a "local" project?

Are Luas and Dart only "local" projects too?

Aard

In another thread it was stated that the cost of Dublin's congestion to the entire Irish economy is in the region of €4 BILLION per year. OK, so Metro North won't solve all of Dublin's congestion. But even if it reduces congestion by 10%, then MN is effectively paid for after six years or so. After that, it's a net benefit in terms of reducing the impact of congestion on the cost of doing business.

markpb

monument wrote: »

...It's some how just a "local" project?

Local = Not In My Backyard.

murphaph

antoobrien wrote: »

Besides which Dublin is only a few years away from not being able to support its current population, hence proposals like the artificial lake to supply drinking water.

Eh? Dublin is perfectly able to support its population, current and future. It's the diversion of Dublin's taxes to rural areas that prevent it from doing so.

The same urban->rural transfer prevents other urban areas from developing properly, Cork especially.

jd

antoobrien wrote: »

Population being served by MN approx 250k - 350k (Dublin Central, North, North West and being generous North Central electoral areas) with no benefit to the GDA. Can we really justify spending (at the most optimistic cost of 2.5 billion) over €7m - €10m per head on a local project?

You may want to recheck those calculations.

D.L.R.

Aard wrote: »

In another thread it was stated that the cost of Dublin's congestion to the entire Irish economy is in the region of €4 BILLION per year. OK, so Metro North won't solve all of Dublin's congestion. But even if it reduces congestion by 10%, then MN is effectively paid for after six years or so. After that, it's a net benefit in terms of reducing the impact of congestion on the cost of doing business.

Very well put. The benefits of Metro are about as plain to see as darwinian evolution. But then Ireland is still a little bit backward. Pains me to say.

cgcsb

antoobrien wrote: »

This is a local rail link not a national project. It connects the city center to a hospital, a college, Ballymun and Swords. D.C.C. & Fingal Co Co should be funding this not the national government.

Words cannot express how angry the above makes me. Dubiln produces most of the State's revenue. The State pays for the F*cking Tralee bypass, but the minute that Dublin NEEDS a bit of investment, it suddenly becomes a local issue. Tell ya what, how about Dublin taxes ONLY pay for things in Dublin, that oughtta make you quit your yammering.

antoobrien wrote: »

I can't see any great numbers using this for airport traffic

2010 passanger numbers are at 19million people at the airport. Based on other cities around eurpoe, approximately one third will use the available rail link, meaning 5-6 million people a year at a conservative estimate. 5-6 million passengers a year is more than enough to justify one stop on a light rail line my dear.

cgcsb

AngryLips wrote: »

This argument can be made about Dart Underground, any of the many proposed Luas lines or practically every other capital investment to improve the country's infrastructure.

I always thought that building Metro North with a terminus in the city centre was a mistake when transport planning in the city (and the country) should be getting away from "An Lar-ism". Of course, it would've still been a worthwhile project despite the monumental cost back when times were good. Building it now, when the country can't even afford to borrow money on the open market, is just living in cloud cuckoo-land.

At a time when Dublin Bus, the main provider of public transport in the city, is scaling back services due to a fall in demand triggered by the recession I think Dubliners can well afford to wait for the bailout period to expire before we revisit this Celtic Tiger vanity project.

I was actually fine with your post up until the last sentence. MetroN is the second most important railway project EVER in the state, after DART underground.

cgcsb

antoobrien wrote: »

I fail to see how this is any more vital to the national interest than WRC might be (both are perceived to be a waste of money by many) if it were used correctly.

Did you just make a comparison between MetroN and the WRC???? one will move more passengers in an day than the other will in a year.

weehamster

Originally Posted by antoobrien View Post
I fail to see how this is any more vital to the national interest than WRC might be (both are perceived to be a waste of money by many) if it were used correctly.

cgcsb wrote: »

Did you just make a comparison between MetroN and the WRC???? one will move more passengers in an day than the other will in a year.

Ahhh ha ha ha ha....:D I think he just did. That is funniest thing I read in a while. Thanks for making my night. WRC=Metro North...Good One.

cgcsb

weehamster wrote: »

Ahhh ha ha ha ha....:D I think he just did. That is funniest thing I read in a while. Thanks for making my night. WRC=Metro North...Good One.

I had hoped that I was misinterpreting him or something. I feel like I should take a big red marker and write "F" on his post. I felt the same away about people who put a "1" beside a FF candidate in the last election.

BluntGuy

Okay, enough of the jibbing.

But really, anto, you are going to have to qualify some of this stuff,

antoobrien wrote: »

I fail to see how this is any more vital to the national interest than WRC might be (both are perceived to be a waste of money by many) if it were used correctly.

This is baffling logic quite frankly. It's a bit like arguing that Knock Airport could be as vital as Dublin Airport if it were used correctly. The scales are so vastly different.

Flawed logic and damned arrogant i.m.o. - good for Dublin does not automatically mean good for the country. Economically right now it could be argued that good for Dublin is actually bad for the country as it re-enforces the cost of living and employment, both of which need to drop for us to become competitive. It's all well and good paypal announcing 200 jobs in blanch, but not everyone can do those types of jobs and we're being priced out of various markets & industries that we could do well in.

Again, not that it's the principle topic of this thread and I don't want to derail it too much, but how does Dublin, our largest city, with the largest economy-of-scale opportunities (i.e. opportunities for competitiveness) "reinforce the cost of living and employment"? I'm not even sure what you mean by that. Not not everyone can work at Paypal in Blanch, but I really see a disconnect between that and the conclusion that due to those types of job opportunities being available "we are being priced out of various markets and industries".

WRC and the motorways are good examples of attempts at national level infrastructure, they run through several counties to the intended benefit of the region. On WRC it is intended (no matter how badly managed and implemented) to serve the area from Limerick to Sligo - which is nearly the length of the eastern seaboard from Dundalk to Rosslare.

What matters is how many people are served and what is the most efficient, quick and cost-conscious way of moving these people. It isn't a rickety old rail line. The project may well be more "national" in terms of the geographic "area" they serve, but in terms of benefit to both the national economy and number of people, they fall well short of par. Even Irish Rail's generous CBA for the WRC painted a grim forecast and implicitly acknowledged that alongside the new M18 motorway (and associated excellent bus routes), its shuffling mess of a service simply can't compete. To relate this back to Metro North, it is incredibly evident that many more people will (or perhaps would, might be a more appropriate conjugation) be served, the business case is far better for it, and indeed if the business case is to be believed there would be a wider benefit for the economy (and thus the country) as a whole. That to me is the definition of a national project.

But lets flip the point on the WRC's status as a waste of money over, if (as I fear) MN is run anywhere nearly as poorly as WRC why the hell would we want to waste 10-20 times the cost of WRC?

The more competent RPA would tender out operation of MN. I'd imagine the level of service would be more akin to the decently-run Luas than IE's absolute shambles.

And when Dublin taxpayers are asked to stump up €200m for Glaus, which is a project that will only benefit Galway city much like MN will only benefit part of North Dublin, they should just take it lying down?

You're again thinking in terms of geographic area rather than benefit to both number of people and overall economy.

dynamick

Frank must be delighted that having campaigned against metro north, he has been told off the record that it will be cancelled.

METRO NORTH and Dart Underground are to be dropped by the Government next month following a comprehensive review by Minister for Transport Leo Varadkar of “big ticket” transport projects.

According to well-placed sources, the two schemes will be “deferred” indefinitely on the basis that neither can be funded in the current climate, even under public-private partnership (PPP) arrangements.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0812/1224302301839.html

DWCommuter

dynamick wrote: »

Frank must be delighted that having campaigned against metro north, he has been told off the record that it will be cancelled.


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0812/1224302301839.html

Old news for some and new news for others. I predicted the death knell for MN and DU before the recession and I wasn't guessing. Regardless of petty press coverage, it's abundantly obvious that its all over.

In Navan, the soundings are pretty similar.

It saddens me to be right. I never took anything remotely positive from my negative commentary.

DWCommuter

dynamick wrote: »

Frank must be delighted that having campaigned against metro north, he has been told off the record that it will be cancelled.


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0812/1224302301839.html

I'd say Frank is as stunned by the rapid deterioation of matters as any of us. Much of his commentary was based on having money to provide the alternatives that he found attractive. Now, he is just backtracking and covering ass. The money was never really there, because the political will was never there. Rail based public transport projects were nothing more than fantasy.

BluntGuy

DWCommuter wrote: »

Old news for some and new news for others. I predicted the death knell for MN and DU before the recession and I wasn't guessing. Regardless of petty press coverage, it's abundantly obvious that its all over.

Aye. I must admit there is an odd sort of melancholia about the RPA website/facebook, with their "station of the week" thing that they're doing while "we wait for a decision". I can't really call it denial, as it's surely obvious to them more than anyone else at this point that it's quite simply fallen apart.

The real question is whether provision will be made for MN, should they decide to even build BXD, or whether they'll utterly cripple the future prospects of the project. Bets?

blackdog2

BluntGuy wrote: »

Aye. I must admit there is an odd sort of melancholia about the RPA website/facebook, with their "station of the week" thing that they're doing while "we wait for a decision". I can't really call it denial, as it's surely obvious to them more than anyone else at this point that it's quite simply fallen apart.

The real question is whether provision will be made for MN, should they decide to even build BXD, or whether they'll utterly cripple the future prospects of the project. Bets?

I say no. Not one rail project of the last 20 years(to my recollection, correct me if I am wrong) has been on schedule, to cost or has had the benefit originally envisaged. Investing more while the current crowd are in charge can only deliver the same result

AngryLips

For the cost of preparatory work already spent on Metro North we could have had a completed link between Red and Green line by now. This has to be the most disappointing aspect of the cancellation of MN.

dubhthach

Article in Irish times today:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0812/1224302301839.html

Metro North and Dart Underground 'deferred'
FRANK McDONALD, Environment Editor

METRO NORTH and Dart Underground are to be dropped by the Government next month following a comprehensive review by Minister for Transport Leo Varadkar of “big ticket” transport projects.

According to well-placed sources, the two schemes will be “deferred” indefinitely on the basis that neither can be funded in the current climate, even under public-private partnership (PPP) arrangements.

Even though construction costs are considerably lower than they were during the boom and estimates for Metro North were a closely guarded secret, it is believed the scheme would cost at least €3 billion.

Given that Dart Underground – billed as the “missing link” that would transform Dublin’s disparate suburban rail services into a network – was likely to cost €2 billion, the combined total would be €5 billion-plus.

For political reasons, the term “deferred” will be used, rather than “abandoned” or “cancelled”, with Mr Varadkar holding out hope that both could be built when economic conditions improve.

CIÉ’s proposal for a rail spur to Dublin airport from the Dart line at Clongriffin in north Dublin is also widely seen as a non-runner. “It’s a daft idea and the cost would be enormous,” one source said.

But the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) is optimistic that the Government will go ahead with plans for a city centre link between the existing Luas lines, with a spur to Broombridge on the Maynooth line.

The link, known as Luas Line BXD, has already been the subject of an oral hearing by An Bord Pleanála and the board’s approval for a railway order to facilitate its construction could be issued as early as next month.

It would run from St Stephen’s Green via Dawson Street, Nassau Street, lower Grafton Street, College Green, Westmoreland Street, O’Connell Street and then on to Broombridge on a currently disused rail line.

The line would be split in the city centre, with southbound trams running via Marlborough Street across a new bridge to Hawkins Street and College Street before rejoining the main route in College Green.

“If there are no further cutbacks, BXD would fit within the reduced capital spending envelope for transport projects, primarily because of its affordability,” an RPA source told The Irish Times yesterday.

“The Government is keen to stimulate the engineering sector and BXD could be done from its own resources. But the bigger capital projects [Metro North and Dart Underground] will have to be deferred,” he said.

Another source said PPP projects for the metro and Dart schemes would involve “crazy money” to service the debt. Interest rates would be “prohibitive”, especially with the financial markets in turmoil now.

This is recognised by the final two bidders for the Metro North PPP, the Celtic Metro Group, which includes Mitsui and Barclays Private Equity, and Metro Express, which includes Bombardier and Macquarie.

RPA chief executive Frank Allen, whose term of office was due to end this month, has had his contract extended for a further year, pending the agency’s proposed merger with the National Roads Authority.

The RPA has spent nearly €200 million on preparatory work for Metro North, which would run from St Stephen’s Green to Swords, via Dublin airport. The project was finally approved by An Bord Pleanála last October.

sunshinediver

dubhthach wrote: »

Article in Irish times today:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0812/1224302301839.html

Is it possible to get an approximate breakdown of cost figures regarding metro north to include input from PPP schemes, EU grants etc. From what I can see the private firms bidding seem to think that funding for the project is available. It seems to me there is a lot of political short term thinking involved.

I am very interested in finding out what the actual cost to the state would have been. Estimates of 2-5 billion would not be paid entirely by the state. What figure exactly can we not afford???

dynamick

I haven't got time to look for the source but my memory is that the state had to come up with another 800m in cash over the next 6 years and then start repaying 1.5bn in PPP and 0.5bn from the EIB at about 130m/year for 30 years.

In contrast they can do BXD for 300m all in.

To proceed with MN, they would be taking a bet on the availability of PPP finance to Ireland at fair rates in 2013. They's probably also need agreement from the EU/IMF reps. Maybe they've been told informally to can these projects.

markpb

blackdog2 wrote: »

I say no. Not one rail project of the last 20 years(to my recollection, correct me if I am wrong) has been on schedule, to cost or has had the benefit originally envisaged. Investing more while the current crowd are in charge can only deliver the same result

IIRC WRC and Luas from Busaras to the Point were delivered on time and on budget.

Jack Noble

I put this on the Dart Underground thread but it is also relevant here.

If these projects are 'deferred' post 2014 or even 2016, anyone think FG and Labour are storing up an election headache for themselves?

With Metro North and Dart Underground holding 10-year railway orders, I will be very surprised if FF, SF, ULA and Greens won't be making their own 'promises' re Metro and Dart come 2016.

Varadkar, Reilly, Burton and Shorthall will be particularly vulnerable on the issue locally and I fully expect FF and SF to exploit it to the maximum in Dublin North, North West and West, in particular.

I know DWC is very pessimistic but I'll look at the glass half full here and say 'deferral' in the current economic and political climate really is the best we can expect.

However, the need for these projects hasn't gone away and will actually grow when recovery takes hold.

The difference between now and the 1980s, is that Metro and DartU will have railway orders active until 2020 and 2022 and much of the design and preparatory work has already been done.

It is now up to advocates of public transport in Dublin to keep Metro and Dart on the agenda for when better economic times come and put them back on the political agenda post-2014 and the next general election.

Finally, let's see what Leo and govt actually says in September when the review is published.

As has been pointed out on another thread, the number 2 in the NTA told the Oireachtas Transport committee two weeks ago that he expected 'the right result' from the capital review - and the NTA's future strategy hinges on Metro and Dart.

That's my optimistic view...

NITransport

Apologies for the following potentially daft question but with planning approved for MN, when is the latest that construction can occur? If for example the deadline is 2015 for construction to commence, and the economy factors are such that it could sustain construction, surely it would be outrageous for the Government to not commence construction, no? Or after all our economic concerns, would writing of €200million be acceptable?

Jack Noble

NITransport wrote: »

Apologies for the following potentially daft question but with planning approved for MN, when is the latest that construction can occur? If for example the deadline is 2015 for construction to commence, and the economy factors are such that it could sustain construction, surely it would be outrageous for the Government to not commence construction, no? Or after all our economic concerns, would writing of €200million be acceptable?

Metro North Railway Order is active for 10 years and is enforceable until December 2020.

Others may know better on this point, but I have to presume that such an RO can be extended via legislation or ministerial order, if necessary.