Dublin Metrolink (just Metrolink posts here -see post #1 )

Zebra3

BluntGuy wrote: »

we as taxpayers will have to foot the bill.

And that's why they are not releasing any info.

To keep that bill as low as possible.

If there actually is one cos if it's too high, it won't be built.

Jack Noble

lods wrote: »

As the price goes down , the amount if jobs goes up . It was 4000 now it's 6000. If it's delayed another year , we could create 10,000 jobs

The figure has always been 6,000 jobs - 4,000 direct construction jobs and 2,000 jobs in support and spin-off services.

The actual figures over the four-a-half year construction period are 28,000 man years - 19,000 in construction and 9,000 in support/spin-off work.

All in the July 2010 Metro North Business Case which is online on the RPA website and has been linked here several times.

As for the price, we won't know that until May/June of this year when the two competing consortia sumbmit their 'Best and Final Offers' based on the Railway Order approved by An Bord Pleanala in October 2010.

The RPA don't know the final price yet - and won't until the BAFOs are submitted.

The €2.5billion figure leaked to the Indo last September was based on the previous tenders submitted prior to ABP issuing the RO.

ABP made significant changes to the plan in the RO it approved and this should result in lower tender prices in the BAFOs.

The outgoing govt and former transport minister, Noel Dempsey, committed to publishing details of the final price and the updated Cost Benefit Analysis. Let's hope the incoming govt do the same.

BluntGuy

This is the business case in question I am presuming:

http://www.nationaltransport.ie/downloads/metro_north_business_case.pdf

It is predicated on GNP growth of 2.37% from 2011-2015 (see Page 159). These figures are already beginning to look optimistic.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0201/1224288695105.html

The downgrading of its forecasts for gross national product (GNP), which is a narrower measure of economic activity, was more significant. Yesterday’s figures foresee a small shrinking GNP in 2011. If this occurs, it will be the fourth consecutive year of contraction. In October, the Central Bank expected GNP to expand by 1.7 per cent in 2011.

Cool Mo D

BluntGuy wrote: »

This is the business case in question I am presuming:

http://www.nationaltransport.ie/downloads/metro_north_business_case.pdf

It is predicated on GNP growth of 2.37% from 2011-2015 (see Page 159). These figures are already beginning to look optimistic.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0201/1224288695105.html

Even if Metro North doesn't do the business in the short term, it's not necessarily a big deal. Travellers will be getting benefit from it indefinitely, over 10, 20 or 50 years time, it will still be here. The DART route is in part over 180 years old.

Personally, I don't think a business case is the best way to evaluate a piece of transport infrastructure, as the figures are clearly going to be fudged to hell, no matter what the project, because potential future benefits beyond moving people around are impossible to quantify accurately.

A better way would be to have a panel of potential projects every few years, a set budget, and to rank them with a balance of cost vs. predicted usage vs. alternatives, and build the projects you can afford at the top of the list.

At the moment, business cases are irrelevant to what the business case is anyway: what gets built is what has enough political backing.

mgmt

BluntGuy wrote: »

This is the business case in question I am presuming:

http://www.nationaltransport.ie/downloads/metro_north_business_case.pdf

It is predicated on GNP growth of 2.37% from 2011-2015 (see Page 159). These figures are already beginning to look optimistic.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0201/1224288695105.html

The Metro North Economic Corridor has a population of c. 60,000 atm. The corridor is defined as 1km either side of the railway and is seen as 10min walking distance. The development plan for Metro North wants to increase the population in the corridor to 128,000 by 20 years.

This might be a problem given the amount of ghost estates in Dublin. Does the business case take into account the population not rising as expected or even falling?

dynamick

mgmt wrote: »

The Metro North Economic Corridor has a population of c. 60,000 atm. The corridor is defined as 1km either side of the railway and is seen as 10min walking distance. The development plan for Metro North wants to increase the population in the corridor to 128,000 by 20 years.

This might be a problem given the amount of ghost estates in Dublin. Does the business case take into account the population not rising as expected or even falling?

The business case shows a population of 123K rising to 134K over 19 years. This is an 8% rise and I don't think it is outlandish.
(see page 52)

Employers tend to site their new facilities near the highest capacity /frequency public transport line. Employees tend to live along those lines to make getting to work easier.

Jack Noble

Fine Gael Transport spokesman Simon Coveney has just committed FG to backing Metro North when in government during debate with Ciaran Cuffe of Greens on Last Word with Matt Cooper on Today FM. No fudging - said he was convinced by business case and the PPP funding model was attractive. But cast doubt on Dart Underground by saying we probably couldn't afford both. That bit is worrying but support for Metro North very encouraging - puts the ball back in Labour's court.

admiralofthefleet

fine gael councillor billy timmins (arklow) knocked on the door canvassing on friday morning so i asked him a few questions
he said there is no way metro north will proceed under fine gael

Jack Noble

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

fine gael councillor billy timmins (arklow) knocked on the door canvassing on friday morning so i asked him a few questions
he said there is no way metro north will proceed under fine gael

And whose word are you going to believe - a local councillor on the doorstep outside Dublin or the party's transport spokesman on national radio, Simon Coveney, or deputy leader, James Reilly, who has repeatedly stated FG back Metro provided the PPP tender and updated CBA are favourable?

lods

Jack Noble wrote: »

And whose word are you going to believe - a local councillor on the doorstep outside Dublin or the party's transport spokesman on national radio, Simon Coveney, or deputy leader, James Reilly, who has repeatedly stated FG back Metro provided the PPP tender and updated CBA are favourable?

i'd Say O'Reilly put pressure on Coveney to back it now. after the election they can do what they want, Didn't believe the finance was in such bad shape ete tec , blame FF & cancel it.

Zebra3

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

fine gael councillor billy timmins (arklow) knocked on the door canvassing on friday morning so i asked him a few questions
he said there is no way metro north will proceed under fine gael

Did he give a reason?

Jack Noble

lods wrote: »

i'd Say O'Reilly put pressure on Coveney to back it now. after the election they can do what they want, Didn't believe the finance was in such bad shape ete tec , blame FF & cancel it.

Or FG back the project - which is what I have been consistently saying for months now. Coveney was quite clear on what he said - go and listen for yourself. It should be on Last Word site and was just after 5.30pm today.

And the FG deputy leader's name is James Reilly.

DWCommuter

Jack Noble wrote: »

Or FG back the project - which is what I have been consistently saying for months now. Coveney was quite clear on what he said - go and listen for yourself. It should be on Last Word site and was just after 5.30pm today.

And the FG deputy leader's name is James Reilly.

I must admit that I have an obsessive interest in transport infrastructure and the politics surrounding it. My views are known and my identity is there for all to see devoid of any conflict of interest. But your promotion of Metro North is so akin to the RPA's Facebook page (with similar desperate spin on its election/party relevance) that I cannot possibly accept your views as those of just "a person interested".

So you are either towing the RPA line (which would represent pure ignorance and is unusual) or you are a staff member within the RPA. Own up or GTFOOH.:D

admiralofthefleet

Zebra3 wrote: »

Did he give a reason?

kept going on about no money for it but said the n11 will be widened after the beehive

lods

Jack Noble wrote: »

Or FG back the project - which is what I have been consistently saying for months now. Coveney was quite clear on what he said - go and listen for yourself. It should be on Last Word site and was just after 5.30pm today.

And the FG deputy leader's name is James Reilly.

Reilly or O'Reilly, FG want to get two seats , FF are trying to hold onto one. Can't believe your so naive:rolleyes:. a politician lying , god forbid. The desperation that those that want Metro North built show is incredible. The RPA are clinging to this & jumping on any statement by anybody supporting it as gospel. its an election, no one is going to say it won't go ahead at this time,

dynamick

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

kept going on about no money for it but said the n11 will be widened after the beehive

Arklow-Rathnew N11 scheme hasn't gone to tender yet and the decision to proceed with this project will be made by the next government. A politician can't honestly tell a voter that one project will proceed and another won't when the decisions have not yet been made.

lods

dynamick wrote: »

Arklow-Rathnew N11 scheme hasn't gone to tender yet and the decision to proceed with this project will be made by the next government. A politician can't honestly tell a voter that one project will proceed and another won't when the decisions have not yet been made.

FF are claiming MN will go ahead with absolutely no chance of ever being in government.:rolleyes:

Jack Noble

DWCommuter wrote: »

I must admit that I have an obsessive interest in transport infrastructure and the politics surrounding it. My views are known and my identity is there for all to see devoid of any conflict of interest. But your promotion of Metro North is so akin to the RPA's Facebook page (with similar desperate spin on its election/party relevance) that I cannot possibly accept your views as those of just "a person interested".

So you are either towing the RPA line (which would represent pure ignorance and is unusual) or you are a staff member within the RPA. Own up or GTFOOH.:D

DWC

I have no vested interest other than that of a commuter who is sick of being stuck in traffic. I have nothing to do with the RPA or IE or any other State body.

I want to see all the projects built - not simply Metro North. And I pointed out that Coveney's light dismissal re Dart Underground is worrying.

Metro simply cannot meet its potential without Dart Underground, which is the more important of the two projects - something the two of us agree on. Dart is not ready to go and won't be for at least two and probably three years - that is the fault of both IE and the present govt, not the RPA. They have done their job effectively re Metro North, others have not re Dart Underground.

What I posted here yesterday was simply that the transport spokesman of Fine Gael - which all polls suggest will be the largest party in government, if not the sole govt party, in three weeks' time - made an unequivical statement on live national radio in support of Metro North and gave more details on why FG supports the project than he or other FG spokespeople have given to date. (You may want to check the 'Dart Underground delayed' thread as I elaborate on the DU point and why I believe Coveney got a free ride on Metro over Dart yesterday.)

I also pointed out that this directly contradicts what opponents like lods say on this site and is consistent with what I have said here on boards.ie since I joined last year.

Please explain how this makes me some sort of RPA stooge.

Jack Noble

lods wrote: »

Reilly or O'Reilly, FG want to get two seats , FF are trying to hold onto one. Can't believe your so naive:rolleyes:. a politician lying , god forbid. The desperation that those that want Metro North built show is incredible. The RPA are clinging to this & jumping on any statement by anybody supporting it as gospel. its an election, no one is going to say it won't go ahead at this time,

It is official Fine Gael party policy - that may change when they get into govt and see all the books in Finance and the RPA/DoT re the Metro North PPP but as of now the party supports the project, whether you accept that or not.

Coveney went further on national radio yesterday in supporting Metro North than any FG spokesman to date, bar Reilly, who of course has a vested interest in the project being built as it serves his constituency. Coveney, being a Cork TD, has no such interest in such a big ticket project for Dublin - but he is the party's Transport Spokesman so it makes sense to believe he is giving official party policy when he states it on national radio, doesn't it?

As I have pointed out above to DWCommuter, I have nothing to do with the RPA or any other State transport body and have no vested interest in Metro North or any other transport project. I am simply a commuter sick to the back teeth of having spent the last 15 years stuck in traffic in first buses and now a car. I see the benefits for Dublin and its citizens and visitors of projects like Metro and Dart - unlike you who accepts the deluded ramblings and vested interests of a tacky salesman and his paddywhackery junk.

dubhthach

[Moderator]
Folks can we not descend into a personal slanging match and keep the message on the topic of the thread
[/Moderator]

dowlingm

At the present time it's hard to see how it would be prudential to proceed when one of the screened bidders (Metro Express) has a financier in deep trouble.

monument

dowlingm wrote: »

At the present time it's hard to see how it would be prudential to proceed when one of the screened bidders (Metro Express) has a financier in deep trouble.

Government are already paying amounts up front for enabling works, the PPP bidders are expected to raise funds from more than one source, and the European Investment Bank are funding at least €500m (and are possibly expected to fund more than that, how likely that will be is anybody's guess -- anybody here who claims to have insight into the EIB's thinking should have to declare what their conflict of interest is).

Jack Noble

Kevin Myers is at again today - Metro North is a big election issue for him.

And the price has now gone up to €30billion in Myarseland.

He really is losing the plot over this.

Here's his latest offering in this morning's Indo.

The Metro stuff is at the end of a rambling rant that takes us from Chechnya to North Korea via Nigeria, Bulgaria and Bosnia...

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/kevin-myers/kevin-myers-tram-for-ecowarriors-is-like-a-papal-visit-for-the-church-it-must-proceed-regardless-2531344.html

My particular grievance with our political class this morning is the presence within the Holy Stockade of Metro North. I don't fully know how it got there. Perhaps -- like the Irish language, anti-nuclear posing and neutrality -- it has become a defining piety. It certainly ticks the right sanctimony boxes. Rail is now the technological dogma for the green classes. Their wet dream is probably a tram from College Green to Los Angeles, regardless of journey time, cost or inconvenience. Tram for eco-warriors is like a papal visit once was for the Catholic Church: it must proceed, regardless of expense or practicality -- and if the tram goes needlessly underground, better still! It shows how much we care!
Even as the Greens are about to become extinct as a party, their pious toxins live on. Metro North is the single big-spend item remaining in Irish life, even as we're exporting boy sweeps to clean Indian chimneys, and Irish schoolgirls are now replacing canaries in North Korean coalmines (because they're cheaper).
Metro North presumably makes politicians feel decisive and virtuous, and is justified by some kind of pidgin-Keynesianism -- that it will kick-start the economy. By that logic, so too would a footbridge to Manhattan.
In a few words. We don't need an underground railway from St Stephen's Green to Dublin Airport. Buses will do. Metro North will not be managed by the Chinese, but by Ireland Inc, in whose care the cost of Dublin Port Tunnel went from €220m to €789m, the M50 widening from €190m to €560m, and building the Luas from €290m to €750m. So the €5bn Metro North will actually cost €15bn -- all of which we'll have to borrow, making it around €30bn.
It will involve the destruction of St Stephen's Green, with the effective closure of commercial activity in the area for some two years, and will cause 180,000 heavy lorry movements a year into Dublin city centre.
YET IT IS STILL NOT AN ELECTORAL ISSUE. Which is why Sam the Serb here will blow the brains out of any ****ing election candidate who comes anywhere near this column.

Plowman

This post has been deleted.

ei.sdraob

That article of his does have few interesting points

And on this subject, our political class (spit!) faithfully reflects the congenital dishonesty of Irish life, by which the great consensual falsehood becomes an Agreed Truth. We've spent billions on the language; every school-child spends a thousand hours learning it, so QED, we are a nation of Irish speakers; even though we all know we're not, and would be far better off learning Mandarin, German or Portuguese.

Now, there's not much you can do with a people who lie to themselves on so many issues, and who think that punctuality is about where you put your commas and colons.

Our political class proclaims our neutrality, and then depends on outsiders to defend our skies and rescue our drowning sailors. It condemns nuclear energy but then buys it from the UK. It permits medical patients to have abortions, but outlaws the necessary procedures within its

dubhthach

ei.sdraob wrote: »

That article of his does have few interesting points

The problem with Myers is there is a low Signal to Noise ratio (SNR) to his writing. He might make a good point regarding Nuclear power but it's drowned out in the drone about Metro North costing us €30 billion etc.

ei.sdraob

dubhthach wrote: »

The problem with Myers is there is a low Signal to Noise ratio (SNR) to his writing. He might make a good point regarding Nuclear power but it's drowned out in the drone about Metro North costing us €30 billion etc.

True, he gets paid for his writing style which is a form of trolling, anyways he probably gets a kick out of reading this forum and his name being mentioned with so much love.

jd

We should go out to Ballymore Eustace and put up "Yes to Metro " posters. He'd probably drive into the ditch with rage

lods

dubhthach wrote: »

The problem with Myers is there is a low Signal to Noise ratio (SNR) to his writing. He might make a good point regarding Nuclear power but it's drowned out in the drone about Metro North costing us €30 billion etc.

Who says it won't cost 30million :P

Absurdum

Look, if Kevin says it will cost €5bn, then it will cost €10bn, I'm sure he's done his homework here when he suggests €15bn, there's no way he throw figures like €20bn around if he wasn't certain it would cost €30bn + your firstborn if it weren't true :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

So €40bn it is then ok.