Nulty's Value bets

Nulty

I've thought about it and decided f*** it! I may as well put my neck on the block like most of the other brave/fool-hardy loggers on here.

I wont be posting every day for certain, I don't have someone telling me to make a selection every day like the pro tipters so I'll make use of my privilage.

I will post selections up to 5 mins before the off, any one with any sense and no deadline ought to do the same. So much can change in an hour.

I'll be looking for good value and have a preferance for the flat. This is my first season of the jumps and I'm not confident punting horses I've only seen a couple of times in races that I find difficult to predict.

The stake plan will be simple = 1pt and 3pt.

No 'initial' bank, I dont see the point. Profit and loss will be logged.

Prices settled at Betfair prices = best value (silly sometimes), advised and SP

x PyRo

All the best with this Nulty, seems to be lots of us now backing horses here so could be very interesting.

Woddle

Glad to see the boardsie leading the tipping table set up a log best of luck

Nulty

Wolvwerhampton 4.50

Sairaam @ 7.8

Running respectably while dropping in the weights. Only beaten 2 1/2 and 3 lengths last two CD runs. Atzeni taking 3lbs.

1pt Win


Bank
-1pt

Nulty

Was tempted by Littlemisssunshine in the 3.40 at Lingfield today when 14/1 last night on Betfair. HT's analysis of the race is nailed on and I cant make a case for her at 10/1 considering the way the race will be run.

Lingfield 4.10

Waterloo Dock was 12/1 earlier with Ladbrokes and is now 7/1. Not too happy about that but I'm willing to take a chance on the gelding from a decent draw, winning maiden here off 49 and 1/2l 2nd in handicap next start 10lbs higher. He's 1lbs lower than that now with a good claimer on board taking 5lbs off.

1pt Win @ 8.4

EDIT:
Everynow and then I'll stick up selections but they aren't horses I'm keen to back but I have done Lingfield so here they are -

Lingfield

12.50 Nubar Boy
1.20 Wicked Daze
1.55 Palmilla
2.30 Young Dottie
3.05 Semptemberintherain
3.40 Littlemisssunshine
4.10 Waterloo Dock

Nulty

Kempton 5.00

Iquisitress

Last win was over course and distance just one pound lower than now. Ran well behind current favorite Musashi and has pull in weights. Should go well. Inside draw to boot.

1pt @ 10.00

Nulty

Sweet Applause

Lingfield 3.25

Good speed ratings and is forgiven for poor performance LTO from a 2 month layoff. Seems worth a shot each way at 25/1 despite long maiden status. Can get a place.

1pt EachWay @ 25/1

Nulty

Bank - 5pts

Nulty

Lingfield 2.55

OH MY GOD! HUGH YOU BASTARD!

Nawaaff was 16/1 when I found him 5 minutes ago. I just clicked into ATR racecards to check him out there. Hugh Taylor Stole my selection:mad:

1pt e/w

Lingfield 4.40

Hold The Bucks 16/1

Stan Moores Stable is on fire and last two runs came in claimers. Much improvement needed but stats are comparatively good and he's faster than quite a few of these. Worth 16/1 I think.

1pt e/w

Bank -9Pts

Nulty

Leopardstown 3.45

Money Trix 7/2

Favorite Cooldine has huge qustion marks over his readiness to race. Mullins says he's clean but may not be match fit which on ratings gives the other runners a chance.

Money Trix won the 'first heat' of this race in the Lexus. Ground conditions set to suit and English 3m chasers have great record in Grade 1's here.

All things considered, 7/2 (Paddy Power) is a great price. Get on Guaranteed Prices cause could drift before the off.

2pts Win

Nulty

I'm having a miserable time of late with horses. I'm putting a 14lb penalty on everything I back. Some of them were bad bets/horses but on the whole, it's not been good.

It can only get better:o

Nulty

Sedgefield 2.40

Whiteabbey 25/1

Won Point in Heavy ground and capable of going well and claiming a place at nice odds. wary of the drifting price but nothing 5/1 place will upset.
McCain in good form (19% - 7 from 37 runners last 14 days). Jason Maguire banging them in (23% 9 - 39)

1pt e/w

Nulty

I didn't get to see the race. When I came back I checked RP results and they had Whiteabbey in third. Then they added Saddlers deal. Man thats cruel!

x PyRo

That's a kick in the balls alright!, Unlucky man.

Nulty

I'm finished with horses until my luck turns.

I had Mont Tresor to win and Forever Emo each way in the 4.25 at Fairyhouse.

One took down the other.

Also did 6 horse doubles and trebles. Didn't do e/w and got 1 11/1 winner and 5 places.

I'm disillusioned to say the least

P.S. didn't do a single on the winner

If I back another horse I might just kick the TV through the wall

Nulty

Kempton 5.00

Mister Incredible @ 14/1 PP

Running well enough in Cl7 handicaps last 2. 7lb claimer on board tonight and a decent draw in 7 of 11. Has run well at kempton in the past and has good speed figures. Worried about the drift but that seems to be the only negative.

Looks overpriced.

2pts e/w

5th

Nulty

Bad to worse

Bank - 17pts

Nulty

Lingfield 3.30

Souters Sister @ 10/3 VC

Group 3 winner and Group 2 third as two year old. Over a year ago but Botti is going well and this horse has over a stone in hand if running to mark. That is unlikely but any where in between could win her this race. Chance taken on reputable trainer.

1pt Win

Wolverhampton 7.50

Seldom @ 4/1

Running consistently well over 7f at Wolves since break. Jimmy Quinn, having a great time of it, rode twice and sneaking suspicion he has suggested the horse go a longer distance. Good comparative speed figures and if covered up may have speed to nick the race in the last furlong.
Eaves and Smart (on fire) have Sadeek in this race who won a listed race in second ever start but has plummetted from 108 then to 64 now. must win eventually and coukld go well....in behind Seldom of course!

1pt Win

Done my last tenner on that bastard!

Nulty

Current (woeful) Form

Horse| Result| Dist| Stake| Odds| Bank
Sairaam| 6th| 7l| 1Win| 7/1|-1
Waterloo Dock| 7th| 3 1/4l| 1 Win| 15/2|-2
Inquisitress| 4th |2l| 1 Win| 9/1|-3
Sweet Applause| 6th |3 3/4l| 1 ew| 25/1|-5
Nawaaff| 8th |7l| 1ew| 16/1|-7
Hold The Bucks| 10th |12l| 1 ew| 16/1|-9
Money Trix| 6th |18l| 2 Win| 7/2|-11
Whiteabbey| 5th |35l| 1 ew| 25/1|-13
Mister Incredible| 5th |2 1/2l| 2 ew| 14/1|-17
Souters Sister| 3rd |1l| 1 Win| 10/3|-18
Seldom| 2nd |nk| 1 Win| 4/1|-19
Kentmere| 2nd |nse| 1 ew| 12/1|-17.6
Kheyley| 4th |3l| 1 Win| 8/1|-18.6

argosy2006

Days like this will always come,I should know,
good luck tomorrow,

Nulty

Kempton 4.20

Kentmere 12/1

Ran promisingly C&D LTO in Cl5Hc. Chance taken with more promising pace

1 e/w

Nulty

I may just be reaching the end of my barren spell. Nutted on the line by a nose.

Nulty

Kempton 5.20

Kheyley @ 8/1

Trainer and jockey with recent wins. Jockey rode to 2nd at the distance 1lb higher 4 starts ago. Return to 6f at a course he's won at before. 8/1 reflects lat two starts ove 5f and a chance taken that 6f is best trip. Jockey takes the 5 off again and respectable run expected.

1pt Win

argosy2006

Nulty wrote: »

I may just be reaching the end of my barren spell. Nutted on the line by a nose.

uNLUCKY, had two of them myself today,

Nulty

Wolerhapton 5.10

Herbert Crescent @ 8/1

Really dont like this horse, but then I dont like any of the other horses in this race either. HC has McHugh in the plate (41% SR) and trainers Ollie Pears had recent winner and has finished 2nd 3 times in 5 starts at Wolves. McHugh might have the touch to get him in front where it matters. Chance taken in weak field.

1pt Win

Nulty

Wolverhampton 5.40

MisterIsland @ 6/1

Building up performance and going down in the weights. Eaves on board a good booking. Best opportunity he's had to get a win. Support in market a plus.

1pt Win

Suprise! The horse did everything except win! - A joyful 2nd

Nulty

I continuously heap on the misery for my enormous loyal following (:P).

The barren run continues.

Both selections today missed the break. And people still think I'm crazy for my signature! :rolleyes:

Bank - 20.6

Vurnon San Benito

I've faith in ya man!
Go on Nulty!

Nulty

Southwell 2.00

Angle of Attack @ 7/1 bf (or early price)

Angle of Attack has fond a new desire to race and seems to like the fibresand. A prominant racer, he proved he gets 7 furlongs finishing second to the speedy Ejeed at Kempton LTO. I expect him to up there pushing Fuzzy cat for stamina and if he can get his nose in front, Fuzzy cat wont be able to pass him.

2pts ew

Southwell 3.30

Toby Tyler @ 25/1 bet365

Toby Tyler is not the most obvious selection in this field. Two very interesting stats about this horse. One, he won his first race as a two year old and he won his first race as a three year old. This is his first race as a four year old. Two, His three year old win came at this track. He's bred to get the mile and has in form jockey Jimmy Quinn on board and the trainers going well also. A price like 25/1 is very hard to pass up in these circumstances.

2pts ew

argosy2006

Good luck,, is 2pt ew a total stake of 4pts

Nulty

yeah 2 pts ew is 4 point total.

Can't believe Toby Tyler was 25/1 last night:rolleyes:

Nulty

Horse| Result| Dist| Stake| Odds|Bank
Souters Sister| 3rd| 1l| 1 Win| 10/3| -18
Seldom| 2nd| nk| 1 Win |4/1 |-19
Kentmere| 2nd| nse| 1 ew |12/1| -17.6
Kheyley| 4th| 3l| 1 Win| 8/1| -18.6
Angle of Attack| 3rd| 3l| 2 ew| 7/1| -17.1
Toby Tyler| 7th| 11l| 2 ew| 25/1| -21.1

Fuzzy Cat did it well and showed he has another string to his bow by coming off the pace. Probably a good idea, thinking he didn't want to get in a battle for the lead. Selection performed well enough but I expected him to be able to hold on with his 7f exploits.

Nulty

Southwell 4.30

City Gossip @ 11/1

2pts ew

Nulty

Lingfield 4.00

Lopinot @ 10.00

Its Lopinots turn to win. He's been knocking on the door the last three starts over CD. Found Stanley Goodspeed too good LTO and he went on to win another straight away. This is Lopinots mark and the instructions have gone from cover, to mid div - late run, to mid div early run and the latest tactics nearly paid off. A similar performance will see him go close.

NonRunner

Lingfield 4.30

Dark Ranger @ 10.00

Won off 1lb lower over 10f at CD and recent performances better than placings. Beaten by 7l by Franco is my name who's up 10lbs while the selection is down 4lb (1 stone in difference). Has to find the will to win but is handicapped to do so.

Edit:
Just read that Dark Ranger is said to have lost a shoe on his last run.

1pt Win

LittleLebowski

Not havin a good week Nulty.NR and a 5th but I watch with interest.
Your luck has to change!

Nulty

Cheers Lebowski, I'm getting pretty pissed off at this stage.

Southwell 1.50

Taiper Jean Girl @ 4/1 WH

Wasn't fancied LTO in a seller againts and odds on shot which he ran to a neck. Blinkers applied and 4/1 looks a bit generous. Delta Sky looks the danger, especiall as I saw Amy weaver said that if she ever had a point and shoot, she'd book Hayley Turner to do the job....I'm just waiting for that combination to roll in.

1pt Win

Meydan 6.05

Crowded House @ 7/2

I was very impressed with Crowded Houses return to racing when finishing second to a fantastic Alexandros. A run and experience of Meydan under his belt, Crowded House can return to winning ways...and hopefully so can I!

1pt Win

Southwell 2.55

Rock Tech @ 10/1

Only 6 races for this 5yo who showed much more than previously when stepped up to 11f at Kempton. None jump off the page in this race and 10/1 on the improver looks bigger than it ought to be. Has to take to the FS but the extra furlong could see him in better light than all previous runs.

1pt ew

Nulty

Southwell 4.40

Kensington @ 7/1
Other have question marks with distance and Kensington with two good recent runs and a double CD gets the shout at a decent price

1pt ew

3rd SP 15/2
Can't buy a winner.

Piggy Bank = 32.6

Southwell 5.10

Makintosh @ 3/1

Beat Special Cuvee LTO whos been running well of his mark in handicaps at Southwell. That was the selections first visit to Southwell which coincided with the application of a visor. What ever got the run out of him, all the conditions are consistent and Makintosh has shown enough to beat this lot (famous last words)

1pt win

2nd Who do I have to kill.....

Nulty

This is ****.

I couldn't tip a waiter.

Horse|Result| Dist| Stake| Odds|Bank
City Gossip| 8th| 20l| 2 ew| 11/1| -25.1
Lopinot | NR| _|1 Win | 9/1| -26.1
Dark Ranger| 5th| 5l| 1 Win | 9/1| -27.1
Taiper Jean Girl| 3rd| 3l |1 Win| 4/1| -28.1
Crowded House |2nd| .5l| 1 Win |7/2| -29.1
Rock Tech |5th| 3.75l| 1 Win |10/1| -30.1
Kensington |3rd |1.75l |1 ew |7/1| -29.6
Makintosh |2nd |1.75l |1 Win |3/1| -30.1

Nulty

Gonna take a weeks break. Probably bake in March.

If Hugh Taylor can take a break - so can I!

Last year HT took a break and came back for the Ebor meeting and banged in

Yurituni @ 12/1
Sesenta @ 25/1
Roaring Forte @ 10/1

Thats what I'll do:pac:

Nulty

Pissed cause I selected Binnion Bay @ 9/1 but was on hiatus.

I'm back prematurely...

Lingfield 3.30

Jake the Snake @3/1

Running consistently well without winning. Will win off current mark if breaks come. Last 5 races beaten total of 5 1/2l. Last run best of lot. This the best chance in a while. A Baker takes the 5 off again and the trainer is 5 for 14....

1pt Win

Bank: -31.1

Nulty

FFS

POINTBREAK

Jake was the Pricewise Extra selection and they cant buy a winner either.

Nulty

Its gotta turn...any idea what price pricewise tipped him at?

POINTBREAK

Nulty wrote: »

Its gotta turn...any idea what price peicewise tipped him at?

7/2 was the price. Trading Post also tipped it. The winner was the only one backed against it.

Nulty

Jaysus, I ought to keep track of the big tipsters. I didn't know they had it as their selection.:rolleyes:

POINTBREAK

Nulty wrote: »

Jaysus, I ought to keep track of the big tipsters. I didn't know they had it as their selection.:rolleyes:

Pricewise extra are running so bad they changed their tipsters and got our thread closed. Its hard to break a losing run though. I always reckon the best way is just go back to basics, good trainer, good jockey and a bit of support in the market fits the profile of most winners. Good luck anyway.

Nulty

Two of my past picks ran in the money today.

Kheyley found 3rd @ 14/1 (tipped @ 8/1 and finished 4th)

Hold the Bucks 1st @ 7/1 (tipped @ 16/1 and finished 10th)

Nice to see their doing it when I'm not around:rolleyes:

Nulty

Lingfield 16.20

Suits Me @ 7/2

Closest rated to Gitano Hernando who's the obvious pick. Has finished in the top 3 in 4/5 Listed races, one of them won. Ran well in two races over the winter and is taken to be there to pounce if Gitano Hernando finds the race too much too soon after a 6 month break

1pt Win

Nulty

Seeing as though "its my blog and I can cry if I want to'...

I was most of the way through writing a tip for Glamorous Spirit at 7/2 but writing out my reasoning I slowly figured that the price wasn't worth that much value.

I kind of wish it hadn't gone and won. This curse is really getting to me.

Come on Suits Me - LIFT MY CURSE!

Nulty

Horse| Result| Dist| Stake| Odds| Bank
Rock Tech| 5th| 3.75l| 1 Win | 10/1| -30.1
Kensington| 3rd | 1.75l | 1 ew | 7/1| -29.6
Makintosh | 2nd | 1.75l | 1 Win | 3/1| -30.6
Jake the Snake| 2nd | nse | 1 Win | 3/1| -31.6
Suits Me | 2nd | 4.5l | 1 Win | 7/2| -32.6

Average odds for 24 tips = 10.2/1

Nulty

Lingfield 5.25

Abbondanza @ 9/2

Has a good strike rate at this track and the trainer has being going well so fitness unlikely to be a problem. 1st and 2 2nds out of six. Won here in handicap off 104 last may and has the potential to run well after break. Likely to come second though.

1pt Win