Nulty's Value bets

Nulty

I've thought about it and decided f*** it! I may as well put my neck on the block like most of the other brave/fool-hardy loggers on here.

I wont be posting every day for certain, I don't have someone telling me to make a selection every day like the pro tipters so I'll make use of my privilage.

I will post selections up to 5 mins before the off, any one with any sense and no deadline ought to do the same. So much can change in an hour.

I'll be looking for good value and have a preferance for the flat. This is my first season of the jumps and I'm not confident punting horses I've only seen a couple of times in races that I find difficult to predict.

The stake plan will be simple = 1pt and 3pt.

No 'initial' bank, I dont see the point. Profit and loss will be logged.

Prices settled at Betfair prices = best value (silly sometimes), advised and SP

x PyRo

All the best with this Nulty, seems to be lots of us now backing horses here so could be very interesting.

Woddle

Glad to see the boardsie leading the tipping table set up a log best of luck

Nulty

Wolvwerhampton 4.50

Sairaam @ 7.8

Running respectably while dropping in the weights. Only beaten 2 1/2 and 3 lengths last two CD runs. Atzeni taking 3lbs.

1pt Win


Bank
-1pt

Nulty

Was tempted by Littlemisssunshine in the 3.40 at Lingfield today when 14/1 last night on Betfair. HT's analysis of the race is nailed on and I cant make a case for her at 10/1 considering the way the race will be run.

Lingfield 4.10

Waterloo Dock was 12/1 earlier with Ladbrokes and is now 7/1. Not too happy about that but I'm willing to take a chance on the gelding from a decent draw, winning maiden here off 49 and 1/2l 2nd in handicap next start 10lbs higher. He's 1lbs lower than that now with a good claimer on board taking 5lbs off.

1pt Win @ 8.4

EDIT:
Everynow and then I'll stick up selections but they aren't horses I'm keen to back but I have done Lingfield so here they are -

Lingfield

12.50 Nubar Boy
1.20 Wicked Daze
1.55 Palmilla
2.30 Young Dottie
3.05 Semptemberintherain
3.40 Littlemisssunshine
4.10 Waterloo Dock

Nulty

Kempton 5.00

Iquisitress

Last win was over course and distance just one pound lower than now. Ran well behind current favorite Musashi and has pull in weights. Should go well. Inside draw to boot.

1pt @ 10.00

Nulty

Sweet Applause

Lingfield 3.25

Good speed ratings and is forgiven for poor performance LTO from a 2 month layoff. Seems worth a shot each way at 25/1 despite long maiden status. Can get a place.

1pt EachWay @ 25/1

Nulty

Bank - 5pts

Nulty

Lingfield 2.55

OH MY GOD! HUGH YOU BASTARD!

Nawaaff was 16/1 when I found him 5 minutes ago. I just clicked into ATR racecards to check him out there. Hugh Taylor Stole my selection:mad:

1pt e/w

Lingfield 4.40

Hold The Bucks 16/1

Stan Moores Stable is on fire and last two runs came in claimers. Much improvement needed but stats are comparatively good and he's faster than quite a few of these. Worth 16/1 I think.

1pt e/w

Bank -9Pts

Nulty

Leopardstown 3.45

Money Trix 7/2

Favorite Cooldine has huge qustion marks over his readiness to race. Mullins says he's clean but may not be match fit which on ratings gives the other runners a chance.

Money Trix won the 'first heat' of this race in the Lexus. Ground conditions set to suit and English 3m chasers have great record in Grade 1's here.

All things considered, 7/2 (Paddy Power) is a great price. Get on Guaranteed Prices cause could drift before the off.

2pts Win

Nulty

I'm having a miserable time of late with horses. I'm putting a 14lb penalty on everything I back. Some of them were bad bets/horses but on the whole, it's not been good.

It can only get better:o

Nulty

Sedgefield 2.40

Whiteabbey 25/1

Won Point in Heavy ground and capable of going well and claiming a place at nice odds. wary of the drifting price but nothing 5/1 place will upset.
McCain in good form (19% - 7 from 37 runners last 14 days). Jason Maguire banging them in (23% 9 - 39)

1pt e/w

Nulty

I didn't get to see the race. When I came back I checked RP results and they had Whiteabbey in third. Then they added Saddlers deal. Man thats cruel!

x PyRo

That's a kick in the balls alright!, Unlucky man.

Nulty

I'm finished with horses until my luck turns.

I had Mont Tresor to win and Forever Emo each way in the 4.25 at Fairyhouse.

One took down the other.

Also did 6 horse doubles and trebles. Didn't do e/w and got 1 11/1 winner and 5 places.

I'm disillusioned to say the least

P.S. didn't do a single on the winner

If I back another horse I might just kick the TV through the wall

Nulty

Kempton 5.00

Mister Incredible @ 14/1 PP

Running well enough in Cl7 handicaps last 2. 7lb claimer on board tonight and a decent draw in 7 of 11. Has run well at kempton in the past and has good speed figures. Worried about the drift but that seems to be the only negative.

Looks overpriced.

2pts e/w

5th

Nulty

Bad to worse

Bank - 17pts

Nulty

Lingfield 3.30

Souters Sister @ 10/3 VC

Group 3 winner and Group 2 third as two year old. Over a year ago but Botti is going well and this horse has over a stone in hand if running to mark. That is unlikely but any where in between could win her this race. Chance taken on reputable trainer.

1pt Win

Wolverhampton 7.50

Seldom @ 4/1

Running consistently well over 7f at Wolves since break. Jimmy Quinn, having a great time of it, rode twice and sneaking suspicion he has suggested the horse go a longer distance. Good comparative speed figures and if covered up may have speed to nick the race in the last furlong.
Eaves and Smart (on fire) have Sadeek in this race who won a listed race in second ever start but has plummetted from 108 then to 64 now. must win eventually and coukld go well....in behind Seldom of course!

1pt Win

Done my last tenner on that bastard!

Nulty

Current (woeful) Form

Horse| Result| Dist| Stake| Odds| Bank
Sairaam| 6th| 7l| 1Win| 7/1|-1
Waterloo Dock| 7th| 3 1/4l| 1 Win| 15/2|-2
Inquisitress| 4th |2l| 1 Win| 9/1|-3
Sweet Applause| 6th |3 3/4l| 1 ew| 25/1|-5
Nawaaff| 8th |7l| 1ew| 16/1|-7
Hold The Bucks| 10th |12l| 1 ew| 16/1|-9
Money Trix| 6th |18l| 2 Win| 7/2|-11
Whiteabbey| 5th |35l| 1 ew| 25/1|-13
Mister Incredible| 5th |2 1/2l| 2 ew| 14/1|-17
Souters Sister| 3rd |1l| 1 Win| 10/3|-18
Seldom| 2nd |nk| 1 Win| 4/1|-19
Kentmere| 2nd |nse| 1 ew| 12/1|-17.6
Kheyley| 4th |3l| 1 Win| 8/1|-18.6

argosy2006

Days like this will always come,I should know,
good luck tomorrow,

Nulty

Kempton 4.20

Kentmere 12/1

Ran promisingly C&D LTO in Cl5Hc. Chance taken with more promising pace

1 e/w

Nulty

I may just be reaching the end of my barren spell. Nutted on the line by a nose.

Nulty

Kempton 5.20

Kheyley @ 8/1

Trainer and jockey with recent wins. Jockey rode to 2nd at the distance 1lb higher 4 starts ago. Return to 6f at a course he's won at before. 8/1 reflects lat two starts ove 5f and a chance taken that 6f is best trip. Jockey takes the 5 off again and respectable run expected.

1pt Win

argosy2006

Nulty wrote: »

I may just be reaching the end of my barren spell. Nutted on the line by a nose.

uNLUCKY, had two of them myself today,

Nulty

Wolerhapton 5.10

Herbert Crescent @ 8/1

Really dont like this horse, but then I dont like any of the other horses in this race either. HC has McHugh in the plate (41% SR) and trainers Ollie Pears had recent winner and has finished 2nd 3 times in 5 starts at Wolves. McHugh might have the touch to get him in front where it matters. Chance taken in weak field.

1pt Win

Nulty

Wolverhampton 5.40

MisterIsland @ 6/1

Building up performance and going down in the weights. Eaves on board a good booking. Best opportunity he's had to get a win. Support in market a plus.

1pt Win

Suprise! The horse did everything except win! - A joyful 2nd

Nulty

I continuously heap on the misery for my enormous loyal following (:P).

The barren run continues.

Both selections today missed the break. And people still think I'm crazy for my signature! :rolleyes:

Bank - 20.6

Vurnon San Benito

I've faith in ya man!
Go on Nulty!

Nulty

Southwell 2.00

Angle of Attack @ 7/1 bf (or early price)

Angle of Attack has fond a new desire to race and seems to like the fibresand. A prominant racer, he proved he gets 7 furlongs finishing second to the speedy Ejeed at Kempton LTO. I expect him to up there pushing Fuzzy cat for stamina and if he can get his nose in front, Fuzzy cat wont be able to pass him.

2pts ew

Southwell 3.30

Toby Tyler @ 25/1 bet365

Toby Tyler is not the most obvious selection in this field. Two very interesting stats about this horse. One, he won his first race as a two year old and he won his first race as a three year old. This is his first race as a four year old. Two, His three year old win came at this track. He's bred to get the mile and has in form jockey Jimmy Quinn on board and the trainers going well also. A price like 25/1 is very hard to pass up in these circumstances.

2pts ew

argosy2006

Good luck,, is 2pt ew a total stake of 4pts

Nulty

yeah 2 pts ew is 4 point total.

Can't believe Toby Tyler was 25/1 last night:rolleyes: