Verance's Betting Log

Verance

Here we go, want to keep track of my bets and see how i'll do! Trying to eliminate stupid bets and keep it rational and sensible :cool:

x PyRo

Verance wrote: »

Trying to eliminate stupid bets and keep it rational and sensible :cool:

That'll never happen!.

All the best Sir!.

Verance

.25 points Man City tb Blackburn 1-0 @ 7.4
.25 points Man City tb Blackburn 2-0 @ 7.8

Odds from Betfair and include commission.

I think City will make it four out of four under Mancini. I also fancy them to keep a clean sheet, even though they are missing a few at the back, as Mancini seems to have tightened up the defense since arriving.

Result: -.5 points

Verance

For the weekend...
2 points Birmingham tb Portsmouth Draw no Bet @ evens (Will Hill)
.5 points Birmingham -1 tb Portsmouth @ 5/1 (Sportingbet)

I really fancy Birmingham, coming into the game on a 12 match unbeaten streak. Their away form in the Premier League reads WDWWD, while Portsmouth have lost 7 out of 10 home league games this season and only have a squad of 18 to choose from at the moment. Birmingham should definitely be favourites imo. The pompey players don't know when their next pay cheque is coming and the state of the club's finances must be affecting the players. Playing at home may also be a disadvantage as the home supporters are sure to vent their anger. I expect heads to drop if they find themselves behind again so Birmingham on the handicap looks like value.

Verance

Now, to back Cameroon before they play tomorrow..
3 points Cameroon to win Group D @ 1.64 (Betfair, including commission)
2 points Samuel Etoo to be top scorer in African Nations @ 9/2 (Sky Bet)

Cameroon look the real deal since Paul Le Guen took over from Otto Pfister and I fancy them to go very close this year. I think they'll breeze past Gabon, Zambia and Tunisia and bag plenty of goals in the process. So, captain Etoo is in with a great chance to score a few. He top scored for them in world cup qualification with 3 and is worth a punt.

Verance

1 point Totally Focussed to place @ evens (Betfair, including commission) Winner

As much as I hate the AW, this one has been in the notebook for a while and I think it could score in this today. Was really well backed two starts ago when fading in the final furlong and looked to be travelling well last race under Hayley Turner until the gap closed leaving it no chance and it was immediately pulled up.


EDIT: Whoops just noticed that Hugh Taylor also tipped the horse, it hasn't been backed much since he tipped it up though. Was well backed in the morning though.

+.5 points

Verance

GABON SHOCK CAMEROON

:eek:
Oh what a nightmare! Didn't see the match myself, Cameroon must have been poor???

Verance

3 points liability laying the draw: South africa V England @ 2.95 (Betfair)

The only reason the draw is priced so low is due to forecasted thunderstorms over the five days but I don't usually pay much heed to weather forecasts for the cricket. The pitch at the Wanderers is sure to have plenty in it for the bowlers with groundsmen openly confirming this and hopefully the forecast rain can spice it up more. You can be sure South Africa will do all they can to tie the series, even risking losing 2-0. It took England's number 11 to save the draw for England at Centurion and Newlands and hopefully no such heroics will be seen this time round.

Verance

1.5 points place Crimson Fire @ 1/2 (Paddy Power) 7.5o Wolverhampton 2nd

Only beaten a short head last time out by Fantasy Ride and should go well here in second race for Sean Curran. Connections are confident and I expect him to go very close.

+1.25 points overall

Verance

Thank God, the jumps are back!
.5 points Braveheart Move 12.25 kempton @ 3.65 (Betfair)

A rating of 95 looks fully justified and this trip should pose no problems. Can reward new connections.

1 point Mad Max 12.55 Kempton @ 4/5 (several)

Great form hurdling beating Karabak and Pause and Clause and could well be better over fences. Handles the soft ground and 2 mile trip should be ideal.

.5 points place Duc De Regniere 2.45 Kempton @ 21/10 (Bet365)

Wide-margin winner two starts ago and third behind Big Buck's last time out. Has three wins round here, two over course and distance. Lots of weight to carry but could go well at a decent price.

.5 points place Fistral Beach 3.15 Kempton @ 4/5 (Bet365)

Has seven seconds to his name but is genuine. Was 27 lengths clear of third last time out and should prove difficult to beat here.

.5 points place First Avenue 3.45 Kempton @ 11/8 (Bet365)

Only a slight rise for coming second to Ronaldo Des Mottes last time out and should go well here. Has won on soft ground so conditions should pose no threat.

Verance

.25 points under 1.5 goals - Wolves V Wigan @ 21/10 (Extrabet)
.25 points under 1.5 goals - Stoke V Liverpool @ 2/1 (Will Hill)

Both matches should be very tight with none of the four teams in any form at the moment. Wolves, Wigan and Stoke average around a goal a game, with Liverpool averaging higher but without their three best players (arguably).

Verance

Verance wrote: »

2 points Birmingham tb Portsmouth Draw no Bet @ evens (Will Hill)
.5 points Birmingham -1 tb Portsmouth @ 5/1 (Sportingbet)

Bets void

Verance wrote: »

.5 points Braveheart Move 12.25 kempton @ 3.65 (Betfair) Unplaced

1 point Mad Max 12.55 Kempton @ 4/5 (several) Winner

.5 points place Duc De Regniere 2.45 Kempton @ 21/10 (Bet365) 2nd

.5 points place Fistral Beach 3.15 Kempton @ 4/5 (Bet365) winner

.5 points place First Avenue 3.45 Kempton @ 11/8 (Bet365) 3rd

Verance wrote: »

.25 points under 1.5 goals - Wolves V Wigan @ 21/10 (Extrabet) 0-2
.25 points under 1.5 goals - Stoke V Liverpool @ 2/1 (Will Hill) 1-1

+3.19 points overall

coffism

Hey nice bets on the GGs today, 4 placed from 5 bets ain't bad! Looking back, that's 6 placed from 7 bets from you actually, keep up the good work!
Good luck!!!

Verance

coffism wrote: »

Hey nice bets on the GGs today, 4 placed from 5 bets ain't bad! Looking back, that's 6 placed from 7 bets from you actually, keep up the good work!
Good luck!!!

Ha cheers! Great to have the jumps racing back, really enjoyed today!

Verance

Verance wrote: »

3 points liability laying the draw: South africa V England @ 2.95 (Betfair) South Africa win by an innings and 74 runs

+4.66 overall

Verance

.5 points Aston Villa to keep clean sheet V West Ham @ 2.1 (Betfair)
.25 points Blackburn V Fulham, 1-1 correct score @ 11/2

West Ham have one win in seven games and have only one win in ten on the road this season. Guillermo Franco has now been lost and Zola hasn't many recognised strikers at his disposal. Villa have Friedel back between the sticks and I expect him to have a quiet return after being rested against Blackburn.

A tight match predicted at Ewood park and I'll sit on the fence and go for the draw. Bobby Zamora is sidelined for the away side but Hangeland should be fit at the back. Fulham only have one away win to their name this season while Blackburn haven't managed a win in eight games.

Verance

.5 points Far away so close 1.45 Thurles @ 6/4 (VC)
Beaten 3 lengths by Hollo Ladies (Since won Grade 1) on first start over hurdles. Form pick here.

1 point place The Flying Dustman 3.30 Thurles @ 2.4 (Betfair)
Up 4 pounds for win last time out but should go close in this. Undergraduate looks main rival but he must prove himself.

1 point Cousin Vinny 2.00 Fairyhouse @ 1/2
Beaten four lengths by Roberto Goldback in first start over fences. 2m1f should be ideal and will be very hard to beat.

Verance

Verance wrote: »

.5 points Aston Villa to keep clean sheet V West Ham @ 2.1 (Betfair) 0 - 0
.25 points Blackburn V Fulham, 1-1 correct score @ 11/2 2 - 0

Verance wrote: »

.5 points Far away so close 1.45 Thurles @ 6/4 (VC) 3rd

1 point place The Flying Dustman 3.30 Thurles @ 2.4 (Betfair) Unplaced

1 point Cousin Vinny 2.00 Fairyhouse @ 1/2 3rd

+2.36 overall.

Verance

3 points Tottenham +1 tb Liverpool @ 8/13 (Stan James)

Absolutely great odds! Spurs have one loss in ten while Liverpool are in no form. Liverpool's record at Anfield isn't bad this season (6W 2D 2L), however, either Gerrard, Torres or Benayoun have scored in every macth they have won or drawn and that won't be happening on Wednesday. Get on while the price lasts!

Verance

2 points place Noun De La Thinte @ 1.65 (Betfair)

Won nicely last time with first two ten lengths clear. Should be better suited by today's ground and a strongly run race will suit. I'll take him to go close off a 7 pound higher mark.

Verance

Verance wrote: »

2 points place Noun De La Thinte @ 1.65 (Betfair) Winner!

Won nicely last time with first two ten lengths clear. Should be better suited by today's ground and a strongly run race will suit. I'll take him to go close off a 7 pound higher mark.

+3.59 points overall.

Verance

3 points India tb Bangladesh @ 1.5 (Betfair)

India took firm control on day four at Chittagong and I'll take them to take 8 wickets for victory on the final day. Bangladesh are already two down and their inexperienced batting line-up may well be skittled out quickly tomorrow. None of their batsmen average over 30 and I can't see them putting much of a fight here.

Verance

Verance wrote: »

3 points Tottenham +1 tb Liverpool @ 8/13 (Stan James) 2 - 0

Verance wrote: »

3 points India tb Bangladesh @ 1.5 (Betfair) Indai win by 113 runs

+2.02 points

Verance

Verance wrote: »

3 points Cameroon to win Group D @ 1.64 (Betfair, including commission) 2nd

-.98 points.

Verance

2 points place Bubbly Bellini 1.40 Lingfield @ evens (Betfair)

Would have won last two only for hanging inside the final furlong and I'll take him to place today dropping back to 5 furlongs.

1 point place Tarquinius 1.55 Wincanton @ 2.26 (Betfair)

Beaten by Fine By Me and Master Overseer on last two starts when travelling well. Fine By Me reapposes here but I fancy Tarquinius to reverse the form dropping down to 3m1f.

.5 points place Thousand Stars 3.05 Leopardstown @ 4/1 (Betfair)

Has looked the real deal since moving to Mullins, with connections being very enthusiastic and I'll take it go well in this at 4s.

1 point place Stravinsky Dance 3.10 Ascot @ 1.73 (Betfair)

Has shown good ability with two wins in France, making debut for Henderson here with the yard in great form.

1 point place Palypso De Creek 3.30 Haydock @ 7s (Betfair)

Connections really like this one but it will be tough in this company. I'l take a chance on it at 7s.

Verance

BUBBLY WINS!!

Verance

Tarquinius unplaced!

Verance

Verance wrote: »

2 points place Bubbly Bellini 1.40 Lingfield @ evens (Betfair) Winner!

1 point place Tarquinius 1.55 Wincanton @ 2.26 (Betfair) Unplaced

.5 points place Thousand Stars 3.05 Leopardstown @ 4/1 (Betfair) Unplaced

1 point place Stravinsky Dance 3.10 Ascot @ 1.73 (Betfair) Unplaced

1 point place Palypso De Creek 3.30 Haydock @ 7s (Betfair) 2nd! (Drifted to 33s!)

+4.144 points

Verance

1 point Noun De La Thinte 1.25 Lingfield @ 13/8 (VC)

Connections look to have found another easy contest here and I expect him to get up the five-timer.

yaaaboy

seems to be becoming quite fashionable around here for people to post up their tips everyday!

As a rule i try to stay away from the AW but i did back that one earlier i liked the look of him before, he just drifted out to 9/4 with a good few bookies there but is back into 2/1 with most again. I was also looking at the hardy boy, tom segal tipped him up at the start of the month but it unseated the rider, finished 2nd on his last run and could be dangerous here at 8/1.

yaaaboy

yaaaboy wrote: »

seems to be becoming quite fashionable around here for people to post up their tips everyday!

As a rule i try to stay away from the AW but i did back that one earlier i liked the look of him before, he just drifted out to 9/4 with a good few bookies there but is back into 2/1 with most again. I was also looking at the hardy boy, tom segal tipped him up at the start of the month but it unseated the rider, finished 2nd on his last run and could be dangerous here at 8/1.

SP 2/1 WINNER. from sportinglife: jumped well, made all, in command from 3 out, eased towards finish, unchallenged opened 15/8 touched 5/2 £900-£400 £675-£300 £1200-£600