The "live as it happens" Budget comment thread....

DeVore

so, if you are watching the live feed.... and you want to comment on things as they unfold (or even "the state of yer man!") etc, then this is the thread for it.

This is not the thread for indepth discussion or analysis so dont get all annoyed if someone derails your back and forth about Child Benefits!

So, one hour to go, everyone got their popcorn ready?? Riots gear sales are up, perhaps we should have a special tax on them...

DeV.

_michelle_

im actually really nervous about it, as in how cuts ect will impact on my finances :(. but then again how bad can they really make it .

wyrn

_michelle_ wrote: »

im actually really nervous about it, as in how cuts ect will impact on my finances :(. but then again how bad can they really make it .

Famous last words.
Who knows?
I've given up trying to predict the obvious and logical path that the Government should take.

It won't be pretty but hopefully it'll be fair to all.
Hopefully this time next year it'll be be better.

yom 1

wyrn wrote: »

It won't be pretty but hopefully it'll be fair to all.
Hopefully this time next year it'll be be better.

That's it in a nutshell I reckon. Everyone knows it will be a tough budget but they'll accept it if they feel everyone is hit fairly.

Problem is define fair????

DeVore

I hope they cut deep and decisively. The alternative is... Greece, basically.

I hope they cut big wage earners and down to the lower middle classes and leave frontline and low income people alone. Fat chance I know but thats what I *hope* they do.

I hear they are going to drop tax on booze? Thats insane but I suppose it helps pacify the populace (doff's tinfoil hat).

They need to sugically cut the public sector, not across-all-sectors % cuts... nail the big earners.

If we dont do these sorts of painful cuts, we will have them imposed by the ECB and that will be 10 times worse.

DeV.

Liam79

So long as the PS Pay Cuts are graduated and not "10%" across the boards, ie 30-40K take 5%, 40-50K take 6.5% and so on up to >100k take 15% then I don’t think the PS will complain.

Liam79

DeVore wrote: »

I hope they cut deep and decisively. The alternative is... Greece, basically.

I hope they cut big wage earners and down to the lower middle classes and leave frontline and low income people alone. Fat chance I know but thats what I *hope* they do.

I hear they are going to drop tax on booze? Thats insane but I suppose it helps pacify the populace (doff's tinfoil hat).

They need to sugically cut the public sector, not across-all-sectors % cuts... nail the big earners.

If we dont do these sorts of painful cuts, we will have them imposed by the ECB and that will be 10 times worse.

DeV.

Its their response to Newry DeVor. Stop them heading north to spend the cash on booze they would spend here if they could

mathie

DeVore wrote: »

If we dont do these sorts of painful cuts, we will have them imposed by the ECB and that will be 10 times worse.

IMF you mean?

Lord Trollington

Liam79 wrote: »

Its their response to Newry DeVor. Stop them heading north to spend the cash on booze they would spend here if they could

Agreed, there is as good if not better Value in Tesco,Dunnes down here than there is in the North.
With the price of booze up there, they go up for it and end up doing the lot up there.

I think they should reduce VAT to 17% for the first 3 months of next year.

That will get people to spend some money after christmas by putting a time frame on it.

God knows its going to be tough after christmas for people in Business.

Rb

This will be very interesting. The last budget done was completely redundant and was merely yet another failure of our current Government, it will be interesting to see if this shower has the balls to pull a good, tough budget out of their arse this time when their public approval is probably at its lowest.

It's quite unfortunate though because with this budget comes the further push of people up to Newry, who ironically then give out about the Government sending money out of the country.

Main things I'm looking for are social welfare (all forms not just the dole)cuts, public pay cuts and tobacco & alcohol tax increases. A tax on luxury items like childrens clothing & shoes over a certain price would be a good input also, as would a new PAYE tier to tax a bit more off the very well paid and finally perhaps an increase in the taxes on second houses, holiday homes etc.

DeVore

I believe the IMF has been ruled out as a possibility (though who the f*ck knows). A bigger danger is the ECB and a sudden shortening of the credit line extended to the government or conditions put on it (for example, repairing the spending deficits in running the country etc).

DeV.

Lord Trollington

Rb wrote: »

A tax on luxury items like childrens clothing & shoes over a certain price would be a good input also, as would a new PAYE tier to tax a bit more off the very well paid and finally perhaps an increase in the taxes on second houses, holiday homes etc.

A tax on childrens clothing? are you for real?

Rb

whycliff wrote: »

Agreed, there is as good if not better Value in Tesco,Dunnes down here than there is in the North.
With the price of booze up there, they go up for it and end up doing the lot up there.

I think they should reduce VAT to 17% for the first 3 months of next year.

That will get people to spend some money after christmas by putting a time frame on it.

God knows its going to be tough after christmas for people in Business.

Dropping the VAT for the whole year even would be a great move and would encourage spending.

I wonder what the effect of dropping corporation tax further would be? Would it attract new investment and cover the amount lost by the companies already here paying less, or would it just result in less take-in as noone wants to be near the country at the moment?

It'd frustrate our mainland European counterparts though, that's guaranteed.

macplaxton

Rb wrote: »

Main things I'm looking for are social welfare (all forms not just the dole)cuts, public pay cuts and tobacco & alcohol tax increases.

Why? I can't understand it being desirable to increase taxes on those items at this time because the last increases put tax receipts on those items down.

Rb

whycliff wrote: »

A tax on childrens clothing? are you for real?

Is there a tax on childrens clothing? I know the shoes are tax exempt, hence why they're considerably cheaper than adults shoes... I'm open to correction on that though.

And yes, if there's not already tax on the clothing and footwear of children I would 100% be in favour of putting some on after a certain cutoff point. At the moment there's absolutely no need for kids to be going around in baby Gucci and other designer brands, and if people have the money and want to pay for this type of clothing for children, they can pay a tax on it.

I'm not talking about cheap stuff from Dunnes, Pennys etc. I'm talking about the unnecessary designer wear that a lot of women seem to cover their kids in and purely because it's significantly cheaper than the adults versions. I see absolutely no harm in adding tax to what is essentially a luxury good at a time of economic crisis in the country.

Liam79

Rb wrote: »

Is there a tax on childrens clothing? I know the shoes are tax exempt, hence why they're considerably cheaper than adults shoes... I'm open to correction on that though.

And yes, if there's not already tax on the clothing and footwear of children I would 100% be in favour of putting some on after a certain cutoff point. At the moment there's absolutely no need for kids to be going around in baby Gucci and other designer brands, and if people have the money and want to pay for this type of clothing for children, they can pay a tax on it.

I'm not talking about cheap stuff from Dunnes, Pennys etc. I'm talking about the unnecessary designer wear that a lot of women seem to cover their kids in and purely because it's significantly cheaper than the adults versions. I see absolutely no harm in adding tax to what is essentially a luxury good at a time of economic crisis in the country.

Praise the lord your not in Government. I'd guess you didnt study economics to any serious level Rb :rolleyes:

wyrn

Well all know to make cuts - that much is obvious.

However the main point is to make cuts (so that people can tighten their belts a bit and cut back on unnecessary material items) BUT the main aim is to make cuts and to make people spend. If they cut back too much - people won't spend, can't pay off debts, go up to the North etc.....

They need clever ways to make jobs (yes I know not easy and I've no ideas how) and to make people spend (not madly though) and to spend here in ROI. Not an easy task.

The last budget failed because more people went on the live register (from businesses failing, cutbacks etc...) and thus contributed to our national debt rather than help (by paying taxes, spending etc..) lower our debt.

Something drastic needs to be implemented. Perhaps some radical thinking. Alas our government don't have this kind of foresight.

jester77

Liam79 wrote: »

So long as the PS Pay Cuts are graduated and not "10%" across the boards, ie 30-40K take 5%, 40-50K take 6.5% and so on up to >100k take 15% then I don’t think the PS will complain.

hmm, but if you are just above one of those thresholds, from tomorrow you would end up with less than someone who was previously just below it.

Still a fairer way of doing it than a flat 6% cut for everyone.

Lord Trollington

Rb wrote: »

Dropping the VAT for the whole year even would be a great move and would encourage spending.

I wonder what the effect of dropping corporation tax further would be? Would it attract new investment and cover the amount lost by the companies already here paying less, or would it just result in less take-in as noone wants to be near the country at the moment?

It'd frustrate our mainland European counterparts though, that's guaranteed.

If you reduce it for the year, people would put spending on the Long finger.
if its reduced to 3 or 6 months, particularly after christmas and the harsh budget it might encourage spending.
Lets face it, very few people are going to spend next year unless its 100#% necessary.

Rb

macplaxton wrote: »

Why? I can't understand it being desirable to increase taxes on those items at this time because the last increases put tax receipts on those items down.

Well, they're both essentially luxuries, are they not? I mean, one doesn't have to drink and smoke, so if they've the money to be doing it at the moment then a little extra tax can't hurt.

The smokers are good targets at the moment also because the unemployed smokers will be smoking more than usual, and those who've still got a job will be more stressed than usual and will probably smoke more too. At the end of the day, if they don't like it they can just quit.

Rb

Liam79 wrote: »

Praise the lord your not in Government. I'd guess you didnt study economics to any serious level Rb :rolleyes:

So children should be entitled to walk around in tax free designer wear...? I'm not too sure where you're coming from. The country needs more money going towards the running of it, luxury goods should be taxed, simple as. If designer childrens footwear aren't a luxury, I don't know what is.

Max Power1

Lets hope they cut drastically public service expenditure, both PS wage bill and also the dole. I'd like to see a 20% cut, and a 40-50% cut for the under 23's, and a 50% cut for those living at home

Liam79

jester77 wrote: »

hmm, but if you are just above one of those thresholds, from tomorrow you would end up with less than someone who was previously just below it.

Still a fairer way of doing it than a flat 6% cut for everyone.

Incremental points see for that Jester, cant happen

frman

Rb wrote: »

Well, they're both essentially luxuries, are they not? I mean, one doesn't have to drink and smoke, so if they've the money to be doing it at the moment then a little extra tax can't hurt.

The smokers are good targets at the moment also because the unemployed smokers will be smoking more than usual, and those who've still got a job will be more stressed than usual and will probably smoke more too. At the end of the day, if they don't like it they can just quit buy them cheaper on the black market which will result in less revenue for the Government..

fyp there.

Lord Trollington

Reducing unemployment benefit, reducing childrens allowance, introducing VAT on childrens clothing.

Would it not be altogether a bit much.

The children after all aren't the ones who make the decisions on buying for the household, and we all know there are some bad parents out there.

Rb

whycliff wrote: »

If you reduce it for the year, people would put spending on the Long finger.
if its reduced to 3 or 6 months, particularly after christmas and the harsh budget it might encourage spending.
Lets face it, very few people are going to spend next year unless its 100#% necessary.

That's actually a very good point. However what do you think the effect would be if people suddenly spent a lot in the first three months and then went really tight the rest of the year?

Do you think if the VAT was reduced for the full year, people would spend more over that year than if it were for the first three months, where they spent a lot in those months and little to nothing thereafter?

whycliff wrote:

Reducing unemployment benefit, reducing childrens allowance, introducing VAT on childrens clothing.

Would it not be altogether a bit much.

The children after all aren't the ones who make the decisions on buying for the household, and we all know there are some bad parents out there.

Well, as I said, the clothing and shoes would remain taxfree to a certain point. I'm not talking about your usual kids wear, I'm talking about the stuff you find in BT, BT2 and other designer brand carrying clothing stores with dedicated children's clothing. It would, essentially, promote more expenditure on necessary items and less on unnecessary, especially as a lot of that money (on designer wear) just travels out of the country anyway.

Liam79

Rb wrote: »

So children should be entitled to walk around in tax free designer wear...? I'm not too sure where you're coming from. The country needs more money going towards the running of it, luxury goods should be taxed, simple as. If designer childrens footwear aren't a luxury, I don't know what is.

So lemmie see......no tax on Primark/dunnes runners....but tax on nike's ? Ok....so what about say....middle of the road runners...say....hi-tec...do we tax them??? And what if a new company start selling runners in Ireland....who decides what "level" they are at.....whats to stop them selling them for 20 euros for a few months, avoiding the tax bracket, and then incresing them 3 fold.....???

rasper

Rb wrote: »

Well, they're both essentially luxuries, are they not? I mean, one doesn't have to drink and smoke, so if they've the money to be doing it at the moment then a little extra tax can't hurt.

The smokers are good targets at the moment also because the unemployed smokers will be smoking more than usual, and those who've still got a job will be more stressed than usual and will probably smoke more too. At the end of the day, if they don't like it they can just quit.

But the country is awash with illegal cigarettes that the government does not get a penny from, as usual our government refuses to learn from the past or other countries experiences and instead makes tobacco more lucrative than cocaine, well done fianne failure

seamus

Liam79 wrote: »

Praise the lord your not in Government. I'd guess you didnt study economics to any serious level Rb :rolleyes:

Actually it's a fair point Liam. The reasons for having children's clothing tax-free is somewhat obvious; Children's clothes are a necessity and children need new clothes a *lot*. But at what point does a particular item of clothing become something the parent *has* to buy, and instead it becomes an impulse buy - like a €100 hoodie from Baby Gap that the child will grow out of in 6 months?

Maybe if we imposed 13% on all children's clothing over €50 we'd bring it a bit of cash without affecting the bottom line of those who have children.

And yes, children's shoes are tax free at present. My wife gets cheap runners. Not because she's a child, but because she has tiny feet so wears children's-size shoes.

Rb

frman wrote: »

fyp there.

If you stick another €0.50 onto the price of cigarettes or booze, do you honestly think that will send people fleeing to the black market?

There's already an existing market for cheap fags, yet we're still pulling in huge figures in revenue from tobacco products i.e though it exists, not a lot have access to it and even those who do will still buy them normally when push comes to shove.

Any further increases on alcohol will have close to zero effect, if people are still going to pubs they'll continue to do so if there's another €.50 stuck on a pint/shot/whatever. If they're going to the off-licence, they're not going to notice much of a difference.

Liam79

seamus wrote: »

Actually it's a fair point Liam. The reasons for having children's clothing tax-free is somewhat obvious; Children's clothes are a necessity and children need new clothes a *lot*. But at what point does a particular item of clothing become something the parent *has* to buy, and instead it becomes an impulse buy - like a €100 hoodie from Baby Gap that the child will grow out of in 6 months?

Maybe if we imposed 13% on all children's clothing over €50 we'd bring it a bit of cash without affecting the bottom line of those who have children.

And yes, children's shoes are tax free at present. My wife gets cheap runners. Not because she's a child, but because she has tiny feet so wears children's-size shoes.

Seamus, make it a 50E cut off point....then every kids clothes company in ireland will price their goods up or down to 49.99 ...............

frman

Rb wrote: »

If you stick another €0.50 onto the price of cigarettes or booze, do you honestly think that will send people fleeing to the black market?

Yes I do.

50c on a packet of fags for someone that smokes 20 per day is EUR182.50 extra per year.

Rb

Liam79 wrote: »

So lemmie see......no tax on Primark/dunnes runners....but tax on nike's ? Ok....so what about say....middle of the road runners...say....hi-tec...do we tax them??? And what if a new company start selling runners in Ireland....who decides what "level" they are at.....whats to stop them selling them for 20 euros for a few months, avoiding the tax bracket, and then incresing them 3 fold.....???

Well as I said, do it based on price. If a company increases the price of their product, then they get taxed. Same as if you get a wage increase and it pushes you from the basic tax tier to the higher tax tier.

Good point about companies opening up here, if they're producing and operating here then perhaps they could be left tax exempt in order to encourage people to "buy Irish" as well as encouraging companies to set up here.

rasper wrote: »

But the country is awash with illegal cigarettes that the government does not get a penny from, as usual our government refuses to learn from the past or other countries experiences and instead makes tobacco more lucrative than cocaine, well done fianne failure

The country is indeed awash with illegal cigarettes, but tax revenue from tobacco products is still extremely strong and €0.50 is not going to turn much more people to only buying illegally, or even quitting. Those who want to jump ship because of the price of cigs have already done so (I know I did).

frman wrote:

Yes I do.

50c on a packet of fags for someone that smokes 20 per day is EUR182.50 extra per year.

Unless you can show that a €.50 increase in the price will cause enough people to stop buying legitimately to outweigh the extra revenue gained, then it should be increased. If there's even an extra €10 in tax revenue (total) gained from putting it up then it should be put up.

seamus

Liam79 wrote: »

Seamus, make it a 50E cut off point....then every kids clothes company in ireland will price their goods up or down to 49.99 ...............

Why would they price their goods up? That will just depress sales if the goods were previously at a lower price.

I think you also underestimate the importance of image to some retailers and manufacturers. Brown Thomas's high prices don't reflect the quality of their merchandise, for example.

cson

frman wrote: »

Yes I do.

50c on a packet of fags for someone that smokes 20 per day is EUR182.50 extra per year.

Yes but do we want the short term gain of more tax receipts from steady tobacco sales or would we rather the long term implications of having to finance a health system to deal with the inevitable fallout from such consumption?

I'm for taxing alcohol and cigarettes.

MMD

Rb wrote: »

If you stick another €0.50 onto the price of cigarettes or booze, do you honestly think that will send people fleeing to the black market? most definitely

I haven't bought cigs in the ROI in about 5 months at this stage (duty free, not illegal). At an rate of about €2 above EU average in terms of cost, it figures people will not buy cigs in this country if they have to.

I don't buy into the fact that the Govt pump the tabacco revenue into the health service..it just enters another public finance black hole, therefore is unjustifiable to tax them so high.

Here's hoping Lenihan reduces the excise duty on cigs today.

cson

seamus wrote: »

I think you also underestimate the importance of image to some retailers and manufacturers. Brown Thomas's high prices don't reflect the quality of their merchandise, for example.

I would largely agree with that. A perception seems to have been concieved in the Celtic Tiger that the more an item costs the better quality it is. That is not always the case. Take polo shirts; there is very little discernable difference between a Tommy Hilfiger polo and a CS Sport one from Penneys. Yet the price discrepancy is > €50. It's a snobbery thing fo the most part.

macplaxton

I'm for taxing cigarettes and alcohol at rate which optimises tax receipts, rather than displace sales to personal imports and the black market.

I'd expect the tax will be left as it is though.

Rb

Do those saying that a €0.50 increase onto the price of cigarettes will turn enough people to the black market or quitting to result in a net loss in the tax revenue from said product have any empirical evidence to support it?

Liam79

seamus wrote: »

Why would they price their goods up? That will just depress sales if the goods were previously at a lower price.

I think you also underestimate the importance of image to some retailers and manufacturers. Brown Thomas's high prices don't reflect the quality of their merchandise, for example.

Company A call Company B and say "if we both price our product at 49.99 we can corner the market and avoid tax".....

Sorted......

cson

Aside from the border counties and people lucky enough to be able to holiday, the vast majority will still buy their cigarettes in the Republic. I'd imagine any increase of less than €1 would have a negligible effect on tax receipts.

cson

Liam79 wrote: »

Company A call Company B and say "if we both price our product at 49.99 we can corner the market and avoid tax".....

Sorted......

Collusion = Illegal.

Sorted......

Rb

Liam79 wrote: »

Company A call Company B and say "if we both price our product at 49.99 we can corner the market and avoid tax".....

Sorted......

No, just no. You don't drive a taxi by any chance?

MaceFace

Rb wrote: »

Do those saying that a €0.50 increase onto the price of cigarettes will turn enough people to the black market or quitting to result in a net loss in the tax revenue from said product have any empirical evidence to support it?

I doubt they do and from the way people are talking about it, black markets ciggies are all over the place. I have seen one person selling this on the streets in the last year and that was outside the Ilac.

Very naive responses and I bet most people who want the excise reduced would also be in favour of legalising canabis.

cson

MaceFace wrote: »

Very naive responses and I bet most people who want the excise reduced would also be in favour of legalising canabis.

That's not as ludicrous an idea as it sounds. It'd create an enormous tourist industry and if it was taxed, huge tax receipts. Now, I doubt very much the morals of the Irish public could be bent to allow this to happen, but in theory it's actually quite a good idea.

Innovation - I like it!

seamus

Liam79 wrote: »

Company A call Company B and say "if we both price our product at 49.99 we can corner the market and avoid tax".....

Sorted......

Meanwhile Dunnes and Penneys sell comparable products for 10.99 and market forces dictate they'll do better. And if Gap and Tommy decide to corner the "clothes for idiots' children" market and put Calvin Klein out of business while simultaneously making their products more affordable for said idiots, I don't see the problem?

Or am I missing your point?

Atwork

Rb wrote: »

Do those saying that a €0.50 increase onto the price of cigarettes will turn enough people to the black market or quitting to result in a net loss in the tax revenue from said product have any empirical evidence to support it?

Do you remember a ship searched by customs stuffed full of fags a couple of months ago. Huge market out there for cheaper smokes, an increase in price fo smokes will only make the black market smokes bigger.

Rb

Atwork wrote: »

Do you remember a ship searched by customs stuffed full of fags a couple of months ago. Huge market out there for cheaper smokes, an increase in price fo smokes will only make the black market smokes bigger.

Again, any empirical evidence on the matter? Or just heresay and whatifs?

cson

Atwork wrote: »

Do you remember a ship searched by customs stuffed full of fags a couple of months ago. Huge market out there for cheaper smokes, an increase in price fo smokes will only make the black market smokes bigger.

Create more jobs for Customs & Excise officers though.

Win -Win

Kered75

Atwork wrote: »

Do you remember a ship searched by customs stuffed full of fags a couple of months ago. Huge market out there for cheaper smokes, an increase in price fo smokes will only make the black market smokes bigger.

Smokes are about 2 euro cheaper per pack in the north at the moment

frman

Rb wrote: »

Again, any empirical evidence on the matter? Or just heresay and whatifs?

Of course I don't have any evidence in relation to something that hasn't happened. It is just my opinion.


Do you have any evidence that putting 50c on a packet of smokes won't drive people to the black market ? Thought not, just your opinion too eh ?