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Infrastructure in the new Programme for Government
Comments
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Join Date:Posts: 6185
Apologies. I've just got a bit of a bee in my bonnet with the Green's on this issue - it was nearly as if they used the issue to give the impression of a vision on improved public transport, and then dumped it at the door to Leinster house on being elected to Government. It wasn't aimed at you personally
It's fine IIMII, I just feel like I'm under attack slightly from quite a few posters lately when I try to defend the Greens.
Do you mean the Dublin-Navan line?0 -
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knipex
Out of curiosity what is the range of an electric car ? (real range using things like wipers and lights and window demisters and radios not the fantasy range) are you going to roll out stations close enough to suit that ?
THe Mitsubishi i-Miev has a range of 160kms. It's my understanding that the stations will be rolled out in Dublin first. Seriously, you would think that fossil fuel cars have limitless range the way you're talking.
Ryan specifically launched the Nissan Leaf with 'a vision' of electric cars on our "MOTORWAYS" by 2011 to quote Ryan, now we find the chargers will not be installed outside the M50 .
I suppose a towtruck could bring it back to Dublin all the same0 -
Join Date:Posts: 6185
Sponge Bob wrote: »Ryan specifically launched the Nissan Leaf with 'a vision' of electric cars on our "MOTORWAYS" by 2011 to quote Ryan, now we find the chargers will not be installed outside the M50 .
I suppose a towtruck could bring it back to Dublin all the same
Personally I find the motorway comment, if that's what he said, a bit odd because at the moment the technology is such that petrol cars are actually more efficient on motorways, going at a steady speed. Perhaps he was referring to PHEVs, which are also a grid car.0 -
I reiterate to all: please be courteous and civil to one another. Smart Alecry and obnoxiousness aren't appreciated here.
With respect. The poster made a number of claims that do not stand up. Surely we are allowed to question and challenge these claims ? Or are we now supposed to take Green Party press releases as gospel ?
At no time have I, Sponge Bob or any other poster on this thread insulted the poster or made anything approaching a personal comment.
If asking questions and challanging assumptions is now considered smart Alecry or abnoxious then do me a favour and wave your ban stick.0 -
With respect. The poster made a number of claims that do not stand up. Surely we are allowed to question and challenge these claims ? Or are we now supposed to take Green Party press releases as gospel ?
At no time have I, Sponge Bob or any other poster on this thread insulted the poster or made anything approaching a personal comment.
If asking questions and challanging assumptions is now considered smart Alecry or abnoxious then do me a favour and wave your ban stick.
Furet was merely giving a reminder to everyone to make sure things are kept civil, we all know sometimes these debates can get heated, and indeed even I observed a few instances where things got a little personal (though within the limits of what's necessary/acceptable to address the point in question).
Furet's message was a light-warning, and it wasn't to you or anyone else in particular so chill a bit.
Also, you'd be well-advised to avoid comments like "do me a favour and wave your ban stick". And that's a serious warning.0 -
I said Finance Ministers AND other members of national governments.
No your initial post claimed full credit for the Greens. A claim that does not stand up.Try factoring in the electrification of transport.
You still don't understand.
6 billion in energy imports which includes heating oil, diesel, petrol, gas etc. less than 3 billion of this is for electricity.
Moving cars from petrol and diesel to electricity will not change that total.
Look at the efficiency of a modern diesel engine.
Now look at the efficiency of a power generation plant.
The efficiency of power distribution systems (including transformation stages)
Look at the efficiency of a charging system the efficiency of the battery and the electric motors.
Sorry, where did I say that it was free? Strawman. Do some research. I recommend Simon Awerbuch and his work on application of portfolio theory to renewables. Approximately 95% of the costs of wind energy are up front. O&M costs are minimal. You also don't have to worry about pollution or offsetting of carbon, given that those are actual costs.
And You call me a straw man. I agree with you that the costs are all up front. Its the level of those costs that you clearly do not understand. 5 million per MW output is orders of magnitude more expensive that gas, oil coal or nuclear. At 30% efficiency and a life of 25 years power generated by wind is much more expensive than power generated by gas coal or oil. The difference in capital costs more than covers the cost of the fuel...
As for the pollution issue........ What is the greatest carbon sink in Ireland ? Where are wind farms installed ?
Wind Turbines are energy intensive to manufacture, ship and install. They are not pollution free any more than they produce free power. I have looked for but failed to find any independent research looking at the true environmental cost of wind turbines from design to disposal but what little bits I have been able to find shows that they are far from pollution free.Oh I'm sorry, I didn't realise there was plenty of energy to go around. Silly me.
Not silly just miss informed. So some independent research as to the true cost of wind power.
Load factor is the critical issue regarding the feasibility of wind power and there are not an infinite number of sites where higher load factors are available.
Even with a 35% load factor there will be significant periods of low or no power availability. Blackouts are not acceptable so alternative generation capacity needs to be kept as a backup.
At the moment we are paying companies to build CGT generation plants purely to act as a backup for wind. As no business will invest in a power station when they are only allowed to sell power when their competitors (wind) cannot so we are paying them a capacity payment just to be available in case we need them...........
Wind without storage is not a reliable or secure power supply which is why it is worthless for exports. It is also expensive which makes to uncompetitive in an export market. Using what we have at the moment the only way we could export wind power is to back it up with more subsidised CGt stations and subsidise the power so it can compete thereby driving Irish Electricity costs higher.
The Storage required to make wind power a real solution is measured in hundred of Gw hours and this will still not address power generation costs associated with wind.
I have no doubt that a lot of traffic goes between Carrigaline and Cork. But there are services/locations within Carrigaline that people access by car and the point of the cycle network is to allow people to access those routes by bike.
Have you ever actually been to Carrigaline ? Do you know what shift patterns are like in the area ?Incorrect. The tradesmen have to provide evidence of qualifications and their backgrounds are checked. Now who's assuming what?
No assumption at all. I actually know a number of registered installers and I know exactly what they had to do to become registered and exactly what experience and qualification they have in the field.
Sorry but you don't even cycle.
Oh this is very funny when combined with your next lineDon't assume to know exactly why everyone does and does not cycle.How do you think cities like Amsterdam get the majority of people commuting by bicycle if "people in the main cycle for exercise and fun, not as a mode of transport". I have been cycling in Dublin for 6 years, worked in the DTO and I understand what makes people want to cycle and not. The main obstacle is fear for their safety and cycle lanes go a long way in providing proper space for cyclists on the roads and a sense of priority in that space.
Do you have a problem with maps ? Look at Amsterdam and look where people live relative to where they work.
Look at Ireland and look at where people live relative to where they work.
Its not rocket science it involves look at the reality around you. A minority of people will be able to cycle to work the majority will not. Picking a figure of 150,000 based on the commute distance quoted in the census is a joke.
Imagine your a self employed plumber. What is your commute ?
A sales man ?
There are many reasons why a short commute would be recorded on the census but would prevent you cycling.You don't think having a more transparent planning process is a big deal? Wow.
The point was about the Mayor. I don't see what your problem is the elected mayor position. The position is a political one. You are aware that the current mayor is not a professional either?
Having a politician in charge result in a transparent planning system ? That where we have been going wrong....
Oh hang on.... councillors are politicians and were responsible for planning but didn't John Gormley take powers from them because of the mess they were making of planning.
You claimed the mayor was a good thing as an elected politician would be responsible for planning.... Planning should be the responsibility of professionals with overall policy set by government. Once politicians become involved then planning becomes a political issue where votes mean more than good planning.
knipex, please go and look up demand management or V2G technology or storage capabilities. Anyway, most cars will be charged up at night when there is a valley in the demand curve.
Oh this is an area i know a little about. So cars are going ts use charging stations overnight.... Very .......... convenient......Did I say I was going to build a charging station? No. I said there are private businesses who are going to start building a charging station. Research in the US is working on bringing charging times down to 3 minutes. There will also be the ability to charge in your house at night. Again more lack of knowledge - battery swapping is not going to work.
A 3 minute charge is years away at best and drive efficiencies down even further resulting in more power wastage.
Battery charging does work as long as you lease the batteries instead of buying them. It may be expensive and a but impractical but that never stopped you before.
You also seem to be confused on this topic. you tell me that electric cars are for urban use only then you have a discussion with Spongebob about motorway usage.
Based on current technology charging stations are a joke as charging times are two long.
It will work where you drive in for work, charge the car while in the office and then drive home but will not work like a petrol station as you previously implied. The range and refueling times mean that electric cars are only suitable for a small minority....Note: It would be nice if you didn't use language that sets me up as the government/green party. I am a member of the greens but I don't speak on behalf of them and nor the government.
You were quite happy to make a post claiming allot of credit on their behalf. If you make claims like that then be prepared to defend them.It really is unnecessarily aggressive.
Now you are having a laugh.
You made claims, I challenged them and you call be aggressive.
Get a grip.
THe Mitsubishi i-Miev has a range of 160kms. It's my understanding that the stations will be rolled out in Dublin first. Seriously, you would think that fossil fuel cars have limitless range the way you're talking.
The i-Miev will not do 160 kms in actual usage when you need to use lights, wipers and even want to turn on the radio.
The manufacturers claims for all electric cars do not live up to real life much like the claims by Toyota for the Prius back in the day.
I drive a diesel car. I have a range of 1,100km per tank (in reall world driving) and takes less than 5 minutes to fill.Did I say that all of them were the above? No. But again it will be part of the solution. As I said, there are cities where the majority of commuters travel by bike. We may not get the same numbers but the tiny 5% of cycling commuters we have now would be very easy to improve on.
You claimed a figure as fact that you now admit you may not reach. Now that's progress. Its also very expensive progress.. How much will the scheme cost again ?Hang on a sec - you just said the wholesale price wasn't bad and it was the retail price. But now it's all the fault of our renewable energy programme?
How hard is this to understand ? The additional costs associated with wind energy is what causes the difference between wholesale costs (ie the cost of a MW of electricity coming out of Money-point) and the cost charged to the consumer.
Well that's been knocked on the head - see above.
Where ???
More is going to be built offshore with higher load factors. Again re costs, see above.
Load factors do improve off shore but so do costs. They increase dramatically for both installation and maintenance so overall efficiencies are the same. Off shore wind power is actually more expensive to produce than on shore.Given that we have been identified by Andris Pielbags as having the greatest wind and wave energy resources in Europe, I think your doom and gloom analysis is more than a little wide of the mark. And again I refer you to Awerbuch's work on the economics of wind power.
I refer you to reality..
I will do the math if you wish but to prevent you starting running away after we need to agree some figures.
Are you willing to accept an installed cost for wing of 1.5 million per MW ?
Are you willing to accept an average load factor of 25 to 30% ?
Do you accept that wind power is neither reliable or secure and a backup supply must exist ? Do you accept that this back up must be paid for ?
Once we have agreement on those basic principles then I will be more than happy to do the math.I think there are sufficient checks and balances in place. There is a code of practice, BER assessors are regularly audited and thrown of the register if they commit any offences. And some have already been thrown off.
The conflict of interest remains and there are very little checks and balances in place. If you don't believe me ask SEI just how many inspected there are monitoring the BER inspectors ?
Jesus I've never read such naysaying, negative posts.
Reality does suck.....0 -
Join Date:Posts: 6185
No your initial post claimed full credit for the Greens. A claim that does not stand up.You still don't understand.6 billion in energy imports which includes heating oil, diesel, petrol, gas etc. less than 3 billion of this is for electricity.
Moving cars from petrol and diesel to electricity will not change that total.Look at the efficiency of a modern diesel engine.
Now look at the efficiency of a power generation plant.
The efficiency of power distribution systems (including transformation stages)
Look at the efficiency of a charging system the efficiency of the battery and the electric motors.
However, improvements are being made in the efficiency of transmission and a key point is that any improvements in the efficiency of a petrol/diesel car take about 10-15years to spread (time it takes to replace the national fleet). Whereas with BEVs, any improvement in electricity generation or transmission will be passed down the chain almost instantly.
There are other issues like the obviously increasing scarcity of oil and the fluctuations in price. Transport is a tricky one and electric vehicles will never replace a decently designed urban space with proper cycling and transport links to reduce dependency on private cars.And You call me a straw man. I agree with you that the costs are all up front. Its the level of those costs that you clearly do not understand. 5 million per MW output is orders of magnitude more expensive that gas, oil coal or nuclear. At 30% efficiency and a life of 25 years power generated by wind is much more expensive than power generated by gas coal or oil. The difference in capital costs more than covers the cost of the fuel...As for the pollution issue........ What is the greatest carbon sink in Ireland ? Where are wind farms installed ?Wind Turbines are energy intensive to manufacture, ship and install. They are not pollution free any more than they produce free power. I have looked for but failed to find any independent research looking at the true environmental cost of wind turbines from design to disposal but what little bits I have been able to find shows that they are far from pollution free.Not silly just miss informed. So some independent research as to the true cost of wind power.Load factor is the critical issue regarding the feasibility of wind power and there are not an infinite number of sites where higher load factors are available.Even with a 35% load factor there will be significant periods of low or no power availability. Blackouts are not acceptable so alternative generation capacity needs to be kept as a backup.At the moment we are paying companies to build CGT generation plants purely to act as a backup for wind. As no business will invest in a power station when they are only allowed to sell power when their competitors (wind) cannot so we are paying them a capacity payment just to be available in case we need them...........
Wind without storage is not a reliable or secure power supply which is why it is worthless for exports.It is also expensive which makes to uncompetitive in an export market.Have you ever actually been to Carrigaline ? Do you know what shift patterns are like in the area ?Do you have a problem with maps ? Look at Amsterdam and look where people live relative to where they work.
Look at Ireland and look at where people live relative to where they work.
Its not rocket science it involves look at the reality around you. A minority of people will be able to cycle to work the majority will not. Picking a figure of 150,000 based on the commute distance quoted in the census is a joke.
Imagine your a self employed plumber. What is your commute ?
A sales man ?
There are many reasons why a short commute would be recorded on the census but would prevent you cycling.Having a politician in charge result in a transparent planning system ? That where we have been going wrong....
<snip>
Planning should be the responsibility of professionals with overall policy set by government.Oh this is an area i know a little about. So cars are going ts use charging stations overnight.... Very .......... convenient......A 3 minute charge is years away at best and drive efficiencies down even further resulting in more power wastage.You also seem to be confused on this topic. you tell me that electric cars are for urban use only then you have a discussion with Spongebob about motorway usage.Based on current technology charging stations are a joke as charging times are two long.
It will work where you drive in for work, charge the car while in the office and then drive home but will not work like a petrol station as you previously implied. The range and refueling times mean that electric cars are only suitable for a small minority....You were quite happy to make a post claiming allot of credit on their behalf. If you make claims like that then be prepared to defend them.You made claims, I challenged them and you call be aggressive.
Get a grip.The i-Miev will not do 160 kms in actual usage when you need to use lights, wipers and even want to turn on the radio.I drive a diesel car. I have a range of 1,100km per tank (in reall world driving) and takes less than 5 minutes to fill.You claimed a figure as fact that you now admit you may not reach. Now that's progress. Its also very expensive progress.. How much will the scheme cost again ?How hard is this to understand ? The additional costs associated with wind energy is what causes the difference between wholesale costs (ie the cost of a MW of electricity coming out of Money-point) and the cost charged to the consumer.Using purchasing power parities, Ireland is cheaper than the average in the EU for domestic electricity in the two highest consumption bands and specifically in the highest consumption band (band DE) 13% below the average and in the second highest consumption band (band DD) 2% below.Load factors do improve off shore but so do costs. They increase dramatically for both installation and maintenance so overall efficiencies are the same. Off shore wind power is actually more expensive to produce than on shore.Are you willing to accept an installed cost for wing of 1.5 million per MW ?Are you willing to accept an average load factor of 25 to 30% ?Do you accept that wind power is neither reliable or secure and a backup supply must exist ? Do you accept that this back up must be paid for ?The conflict of interest remains and there are very little checks and balances in place. If you don't believe me ask SEI just how many inspected there are monitoring the BER inspectors ?0 -
Join Date:Posts: 6185
knipex, am genuinely interested in your figures for wind costs.
Also, would you have any stats on the cost curves for renewables vs non renewables?
And what about cost of back up capacity vs storage costs? Is there not an issue with the inflexibility of baseload plants, resulting in great inefficiencies?
Also, what would you see as an ideal share of renewables in the electricity mix? Given that wind will probably make up the majority but that newer more reliable technologies like tidal are coming down the line (eg openHydro).
Also, I have seen demand management meters that can almost entirely match demand to supply at a household level.
And what impact would carbon tax have on levelling the cost field?0 -
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taconnol,
A quick question - and I know you are not the Green Party spokesman on boards, but you do seem to understand their "policies".
Green strategy seems to be to develop public transport by rail in preference to roads.
A related strategy seems to be to discourage the use of cars through taxing them off the road, through a revised system of motor tax and introducing carbon tax.
In my case, I have to travel from Galway to Dublin and back every weekend to attend to a chronically sick relative. I need my car (or a car) in Galway at weekends. The public transport system in Galway is at best inadequate and will take years if not decades to reach the levels aspired to by the Greens. A bus journey to Galway (and in Galway) take ridiculously long because the Galway Bypass has been opposed at every opportunity by the Greens. New road schemes are to be "reviewed" as part of the PFG and the emphasis is to be on Public Transport.
So....
I have to travel by car. My car is now substantially devalued due to the new VRT regime. My petrol will cost considerably more.
Now forget policy aspirations about mythical green cars (which has been admitted above have only range of 160km and which won't work for inter urban transport) and mythical frequent rail services.
What NOW has the Green Party done for me and the tens of thousands in a similar situation to me who have to travel throughout Ireland other than within Dublin?0 -
churchview wrote: »In my case, I have to travel from Galway to Dublin and back every weekend to attend to a chronically sick relative. I need my car (or a car) in Galway at weekends. The public transport system in Galway is at best inadequate and will take years if not decades to reach the levels aspired to by the Greens. A bus journey to Galway (and in Galway) take ridiculously long because the Galway Bypass has been opposed at every opportunity by the Greens. New road schemes are to be "reviewed" as part of the PFG and the emphasis is to be on Public Transport.
In fairness, the GoBus service takes 2:45 minutes from Galway to Dublin. When the M6 is complete it will be shorter (let's say 2:30). Outskirts of Galway (Doughiska) to outskirts of Dublin (M50) will take 2 hours. I don't think that is an unreasonable length of time to spend in Public Transport.
Then, what's needed is Bus Park & Rides on the outskirts of towns/cities - say at Doughiska/Rathmorissey and the M50. You then have the issue of going where you want to go.
Again, in fairness, Bus Lanes have been provided in Galway - in Claregalway and in Galway City itself, and for the few weeks of the year that it is in operation, the Park & Ride at Ballybrit is a success. Galway needs more Bus Lanes, and more frequent services.
The Outer Bypass will not solve Galway's (at-times) chronic traffic situation. It will help to alleviate it, but it will not solve it. More Public Transport i.e Buses and yes, cycling, will.
We have to get out of our cars. Specially for work commutes where you have people doing the same journey everyday in their cars.0 -
serfboard,
You're missing the point of my question.
You're citing aspirational "policies" of the Greens i.e. bus lanes, bicycles etc.
Funding for buses has been cut.
Gobus are unlikely to carry a bike for me and while the PFG wants to have future trains carry bikes, no timeframe is put on this.
I need a car in Galway to transport my relative.
So, I'm not interest in future plans.
What I am stating is that Green policies are now costing me a lot (devalued car) and will cost me considerably more soon (carbon tax) and the bypass would save me at least an hour in dense traffic emitting carbon as I would not be stuck in gridlock getting to and from the west of the city.
Park and Rides, bike lanes etc. are all fine aspirations for travel within a city but they ignore the reality that most travel between cities is now done by road.
Just to add - I'm not talking about work commutes. I take public transport in Dublin, Luas and Bus when possible. I'm talking about inter urban travel which doesn't fit the mindset of Green urban politics.0 -
churchview wrote: »Just to add - I'm not talking about work commutes. I take public transport in Dublin, Luas and Bus when possible. I'm talking about inter urban travel which doesn't fit the mindset of Green urban politics.
Fair enough. There will always be occasions where we need to travel by car. However, although you use Public Transport, you are doubtless aware that there are a lot of people who could travel by bus who don't. It's not the people who must travel by car that are blocking up our towns and cities - it's the people who could use a public transport alternative and who don't.
Of course, the Public Transport alternatives do not exist in anything like the numbers necessary at present. This is what the Greens should have pushed for in the PFG, if they are to give any meaning to what they are supposed to be about.
Instead, they pushed for no third-level fees. Which there's nothing "Green" about at all.0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 6185
churchview wrote: »What NOW has the Green Party done for me and the tens of thousands in a similar situation to me who have to travel throughout Ireland other than within Dublin?
Oh I'm a firm believer in more carrot than stick. And I oppose strong policies that compel individuals to leave their cars until there is a viable alternative. eg the congestion charge proposed for Dublin city centre.
A lot of the issues you point out area direct result of failed policy in the past - lack of decent public transport in Galway itself and then also lack of decent public transport links between Galway and Dublin. These are not issues that can be resolved in two years.
I'd also like to point out that transport is not one of the Green ministeries, although of course planning and energy are connected. Anyway, I'll take them both separately and then road travel as well:
1) Galway public transport: There are plans underway to improve Galway's PT system, including recent €2m funding for a bus priority scheme. A lot of this is to do with Galway City Council and I'm not sure what else they have planned.
2) Intercity public transport: God, what can I say? Irish Rail is awful with irregular services and high prices (not to mention awful customer service)! From what I can tell, the unions are a large part of the problem and they really need to be broken for things to start moving forward. At peak the services to/from Galway are hourly but at off-peak they are every two hours.
So the investment by Irish Rail in upgrading its carriages is all well and good but IMO the problem is deeper than that. I also think we need to get more freight onto rail as it would help subsidise passenger rail trips.
3) Roads:Work on the M6 continues with the Athlone to Ballinasloe section opening in July on time and under budget. There are local residents that are holding up the work (http://www.galwayindependent.com/local-news/local-news/cappataggle-residents-block-m6-work-/). Can you refer to where the Green Party opposed the M6? I'm a Green and believe a proper motorway network is vital!
There is not going to be a perfect solution that will please everyone all of the time. I'm sorry the new VRT has hit you as it sounds like you're between a rock and a hard place. As I say, personally I wouldn't go for hitting motorists with any sort of additional tax until viable alternatives are put in place.
That said, we need to get people out of their cars - we have the highest per capita car usage in the world...!0 -
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Serfboard,
In complete agreement, but maybe with a slightly different emphasis.
The way I see it, not only did they not push for public transport alternatives, but in the full knowledge that public transport is inadequate, they still punish the car owner, even though in many cases there is no option but to use a car. In effect, it's all stick and no carrot.
The whole third level fees situation is crazy. The universities are in financial crisis and now the PFG has condemned them to financial ruin. All that I've heard proposed by some Green spokeman is that we in Ireland should look at the way Universities are funded in the US - are they aware of the size of University fees in the US :rolleyes:
Still interested to hear if taconnol feels that the Greens have a viable inter urban transport policy.0 -
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Hi churchview, I'd agree with Bluntguy and say that their infrastructure proposals were too vague.
And I'd like to add that I am really interested in taking your views on board because as a Green member I can go in and try to persuade people0 -
taconnol,
Your last reply pipped mine at the post, hence I hadn't seen it when I said I still would like to hear from you.
1. One of the central problems with Galway's Public transport is the nature of the "City". You'll never be able to build a comprehensive system of buslanes in what was built as a small, largely medieaval town, bounded by water to a large extent. Therefore, the bypass is needed to take some traffic out of the city and to allow for the development of bus lanes by replacing urban car routes with bus routes. Unfortunately, the former Galway Green Councillor opposed the bypass at every opportunity aided by Minister Gormley who interfered some months ago, and this project must now be more likely to suffer severe delay as it hasn't progressed.
2. Full agreement on Irish Rail and on the need to rein in the Unions. Anyone remember Brendan Ogle? The service really is appaling and a lot of this seems to come down to staff who couldn't care less.
3. I don't think the Greens opposed the M6. They have opposed the N6 Galway bypass. And they are reviewing roads (94 schemes if I recollect correctly) which haven't gone ahead yet. Will the Atlantic Corridor be sacrificed in favour of Thomas the Tank Engine aka the Western Rail Corridor?
Glad to see your sensible attitude of incentivising people to change rather than punishing them - carrot and stick. I have to say that this is not the general impression the Greens as a party seem to convey (to me at least).
Thanks for your reponse.0 -
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churchview wrote: »1. Unfortunately, the former Galway Green Councillor opposed the bypass at every opportunity aided by Minister Gormley who interfered some months ago, and this project must now be more likely to suffer severe delay as it hasn't progressed.
Ah OK, I wasn't aware of this.churchview wrote: »2. Full agreement on Irish Rail and on the need to rein in the Unions. Anyone remember Brendan Ogle? The service really is appaling and a lot of this seems to come down to staff who couldn't care less.churchview wrote: »Will the Atlantic Corridor be sacrificed in favour of Thomas the Tank Engine aka the Western Rail Corridor?churchview wrote: »Glad to see your sensible attitude of incentivising people to change rather than punishing them - carrot and stick. I have to say that this is not the general impression the Greens as a party seem to convey (to me at least).0 -
I really don't think sustainable transport (and buildings etc) should be about suffering. I've lived in other major cities than Dublin and it's just been a no-brainer for me to never buy a car and just jump on the nearest bus/train/tram (that brings me to within a few hundred metres of my destination at a low ticket price). I want sustainable living to be a no-brainer.
What you're saying there is a sensible and viable approach to implementing Green policies. The problem is that the Green Party in Ireland doesn't seem to share your opinion.0 -
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churchview wrote: »Therefore, the bypass is needed to take some traffic out of the city and to allow for the development of bus lanes by replacing urban car routes with bus routes. Unfortunately, the former Galway Green Councillor opposed the bypass at every opportunity aided by Minister Gormley who interfered some months ago, and this project must now be more likely to suffer severe delay as it hasn't progressed.
That is it in a nutshell ..bar a quibble. The former Green councillor and Gormley were joined by not a few Labour Party nutjobs too while Michael D kept his gob shut rather than show any leadership
The sequence in Galway should be
1. Build bypass
2. THEN drastically restrict traffic in and near the CBD/NUIG/UCHG and prioritise buses on the medieval streetscape with some allowance for deliveries/taxis and with private cars bottom of the gene pool .
3. Increase the density of office / employment in the CBD while bringing in a moratorium on new office/bulky retail/warehouse on the outskirts and even flattening some of them that have been empty for years.
4. Green belt everywhere around the Bypass that is green . Building must go up in Galway not out .
That sequence would be sensible and trending to the sustainable but as Chrchview said the current situation is lunacy , guaranteed gridlock with no end in sight .
Adding this risible 'gléas' proposal from Brian Guckian into the Galway mix shows how completely intellectually bankrupts these green/labour loonys are. A concept like the 'gléas may work if you upgrade an established public transport corridor .
That would be 10-20 years down the line after 1 2 3 and 4 above have been implemented.
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As far as I can tell, several projects for the Atlantic Corridor are nearing completion, some have gone to tender and others are still in the planning phase.
The M18/17 and the M20 are still to be built. As far as I know, the Greens oppose these two roads and would like to see them killed off. Majority opinion here seems to be that both are vital to transport and connectivity in Ireland, which is a view I share.0 -
Were the greens a national party and not largely a small cabal inside the M50 they would have a specific policy objective of creating a vibrant corridor ( at a minimum) between Galway and Cork .
That would be a start .
There is of course no such policy .....which vacumn partly goes to explaining their overweening lack of intellectual rigour0 -
Sponge Bob wrote: »That is it in a nutshell ..bar a quibble. The former Green councillor and Gormley were joined by not a few Labour Party nutjobs too while Michael D kept his gob shut rather than show any leadership
The sequence in Galway should be
1. Build bypass
2. THEN drastically restrict traffic in and near the CBD/NUIG/UCHG and prioritise buses on the medieval streetscape with some allowance for deliveries/taxis and with private cars bottom of the gene pool .
3. Increase the density of office / employment in the CBD while bringing in a moratorium on new office/bulky retail/warehouse on the outskirts and even flattening some of them that have been empty for years.
4. Green belt everywhere around the Bypass that is green . Building must go up in Galway not out .
That sequence would be sensible and trending to the sustainable but as Chrchview said the current situation is lunacy , guaranteed gridlock with no end in sight .
Adding this risible 'gléas' proposal from Brian Guckian into the Galway mix shows how completely intellectually bankrupts these green/labour loonys are. A concept like the 'gléas may work if you upgrade an established public transport corridor .
That would be 10-20 years down the line after 1 2 3 and 4 above have been implemented.
You're dead right. Credit where credit's due The Labour Party were a disgrace on this issue as well and thankfully as a result have found themselves in the political wilderness in Galway.
Completely agree with your sequence of needed developments....see what I did there? I used the word development in a positive way:)
Greens, Govt. etc. need to start listening to people with ideas such as yours (developers if you will) who are "joined up" in that they recognise that private and public transport must be integrated. It's shouldn't be public, to the exclusion of private. Hopefully tacannol and his attitude isn't an isolated one in the Green Party. We need more like him who are genuinely willing to debate rather than preach.0 -
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churchview wrote: »Hopefully tacannol and his attitude isn't an isolated one in the Green Party. We need more like him who are genuinely willing to debate rather than preach.0 -
Oops, my trying to modify some of your views might be acceptable, but modifying your sex is a bit over the top Sorry 'bout that.0
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12 May 09: Directly elected Mayor for Dublin: Mayor will be charged with delivering reliable, integrated and cost effective transport for Dublin; new role will transform public’s connection with local government
When you say "Dublin" do you mean the Greater Dublin Area or the current Dublin City area?
What powers will the Mayor have? Will the Mayor replace the city manager?
One other point on the new PFG; it says there will be a 2:1 ratio in favour of public transport spending over road.
Seeing as the current motorway projects are coming to an end and there aren't any major new projects on the horizon, won't the resulting reduction in road capital spending lead to a 2:1 ratio ? i.e. are the Greens taking credit for something that was going to happen anyway?0 -
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When you say "Dublin" do you mean the Greater Dublin Area or the current Dublin City area?What powers will the Mayor have? Will the Mayor replace the city manager?
-chair of the Dublin Transport Authority (National Transport Authority?)
-set municipal charges like water & waste.
-land-use planning
-housing
-congestion charges (fingers crossed this doesn't happen..)
Re: city managers, I'm guessing the mayor will work with the county councils to implement strategies. I suppose a large part of the role of the city managers is to implement council decisions - I'm guessing they will also now be implementing Mayor decisions, and giving more regional coherence to decisions taken.One other point on the new PFG; it says there will be a 2:1 ratio in favour of public transport spending over road.
Seeing as the current motorway projects are coming to an end and there aren't any major new projects on the horizon, won't the resulting reduction in road capital spending lead to a 2:1 ratio ? i.e. are the Greens taking credit for something that was going to happen anyway?Having successfully focused on the delivery of major roads infrastructure in Transport 21 over the past five years, the emphasis in new projects will shift significantly to public transport. Following the completion of payments for the major motorways programme in 2011, the ratio of expenditure on new Transport 21 projects between public transport and the national roads programme will be 2:1 in favour of public transport.
I don't have figures for how much has been spent on roads under Transport21 so far, their website is more than a little difficult to navigate. Would you have them?0 -
knipex, am genuinely interested in your figures for wind costs.
Give me a little time to dig them out and I will give you a comparison between wind power costs and a CGT plant built in Cork very recently.
The differences are astronomical.
Your cost of 2 million per MW off shore is low based on some checking out I did a few months back the figures were much higher. I seem to remember a project in the UK that was recently either approved or coming on line that was fully budgeted and was giving costs of over £3million sterling. Again i will try and dig it out.Also, would you have any stats on the cost curves for renewables vs non renewables?
Unfortunately no. A number of studies do exist but the ones I have been able to access are so vastly different as to be useless. Even when you try and find out ho the curves were calculated the information available is at best "suspect" all studies seem to accept that the cost to generate windpower is higher but exactly how much higher is in question. They also accept that power generated using coal is also the cheapest. Most studies also exclude backup and storage costs for wind others also exclude carbon credit costs.
It constant amazes me (and its not directed at you personally but in general to the population at large) the number of people who assume that because of the lack of fuel costs that wind power is cheap. It also amazes me that these same people will refuse to accept that it is not in fact cheap while actively supporting the subsidies for wind power.And what about cost of back up capacity vs storage costs? Is there not an issue with the inflexibility of baseload plants, resulting in great inefficiencies?
That is a huge subject worth of a thread of its own.
backup capacity has a number of issues.
It has a capital cost to build and put in place both financially and environmentally. (and this ties in with the second part of your question which we will address later.)
An actual running cost to generate electricity over and above the capacity payment cost.
The reversal of the carbon benefit which will take place by actually running the backup plant.
The storage option is actually better in theory as the cost is primarily in capital with minimal running costs.
It cancels out (virtually) the problem with carbon benefit reversal.
It allows wind to become a truly reliable and secure supply.
It also allows us to offer real energy exports as it could also be used as load balancer for the UK and Europe buying cheap off peak power from them and selling it back at a higher price during during peak times.
The issue with both is that they both add an additional layer of cost to an already expensive power source.
The issue with storage is how. I have looked at many different options and the only one that currently seems to work is pumped hydro. However pumped Hydro on the scale required is a relatively unknown issue (although there are some significant projects coming on stream in the US.)
For Ireland we do not really have the same natural geology to make a similar project possible. The one project hat does interest me is the Spirit of Ireland
proposal for pumped salt water hydro.
I have many issues with their proposal (which got me interested in the whole renewable area in the first place) but most relate to their economic case and their plan to use wind power as the only supply without being able to demonstrate that their claimed figures stand up.
However the pumped storage option does have merit. Assuming their engineering stands up (which a number of bodies say it does) the pumped storage option looks interesting. A claimed costing of 800 million for a 200Gw hour storage is relatively cheap. However the environmental impact of an artificial salt water inland lake does concern me.
Regarding the base load issue. You are correct with most traditional generation capacity varying output has a detrimental impact on efficiencies and plant life. However CGT plants are much much better suited to the role and are what are currently being built. however they are more expensive to build and inefficient to operate when compared to traditional gas generation plant. This also has the impact of keeping our dependence on imported fuels and leaves us at the mercy of international gas prices affecting electricity costs.Also, what would you see as an ideal share of renewables in the electricity mix? Given that wind will probably make up the majority but that newer more reliable technologies like tidal are coming down the line (eg openHydro).
That is loaded question. What we have at the moment is stretching our grid which was never designed to hook up a large number of small wind-farms. indeed a multi billion investment is planned to purely to allow more small scale expensive wind-farms to be added.
Without getting into the technicalities with today's grid and technology I would say that 8 to 10% is the point where it starts to have a detrimental affect on electricity costs and starting to cancel out their inherent benefits..
We are well past that point.
As more secure and reliable technologies come of age and are proven then that will change but the level will always depend on their cost v's alternative generation technologies and the level of grid infrastructure and investment required.
Without more info on the technologies and how they will mature it is impossible to give an answer.Also, I have seen demand management meters that can almost entirely match demand to supply at a household level.
Interesting. Any more information ? Will they restrict availability of electricity to houses ? Will i be able to have a shower when I come home from work ?And what impact would carbon tax have on levelling the cost field?
Based on any of the studies I have seen they will close the gap a bit (particularly with coal) but not enough to eliminate it.
Oh and to your earlier post. Compare efficiencies of electric cars V's modern diesel engines.............. Its a surprising result.
Add in the environmental impact of batteries and to be really Green you would run a mile from electric cars.
Regarding rapid charging. The technology already exists and is in use for may smaller scale items. It has a dramatic effect on efficiencies (touch any battery on rapid charge and it gets very very hot) and effects battery life.
Do not get me wrong. I love engineering and I love cars, the best method of propulsion for a car is electricity. No real engineer or petrol head will deny that. The issue is with current power storage technologies..
They are just not advanced enough. I would love to see all government's invest money in storage technologies. If you can nail that then all our problems are solved.
ps...
I don't drive a diesel because its better, its not, to any keen driver petrol engines are superior in almost every way to diesel. I chose to drive a diesel not for economic reasons but for environmental ones. I also looked at the prius but after 5 minutes research I ran away.0 -
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Jaysus knipex we may have gotten off on the wrong foot but full respect for that post!
I'll read it later this evening when I have time.0 -
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Any more information ? Will they restrict availability of electricity to houses ? Will i be able to have a shower when I come home from work ?
The same person peddling these Demand Management Meters ( so called smart) will not tell you these four things ....because they are all true .
1. A scheme to roll out 25,000 of them in Ireland has been scaled back to between 2500 and 4000. There is NOT ENOUGH COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE IN IRELAND to cope with the larger number . Funnily enough the same arrogant muppet of a minister is responsible for the demand metering scheme and for the underlying causes of failure ...our sheer lack of modern reliable communications networks unlike other countries and most especially in rural areas where grids are weakest.
2. Demand management meters are designed to prevent grid cascades and disorderly blackouts . They do this by causing disorderly blackouts in the home so that the grid can stay up . In theory your blackout will be shorter than it would otherwise be BUT the tendency to protect the grid will probably mean that what may have been a brownout more often becomes a sizeable 2 hour blackout between 5pm and 7pm .
3. There is no ORDERLY mechanism for the meter to turn the shower off although it could come in 10 years ( and if you get a new shower) . demand management meters are either off or on. Technologies like homeplug could be used in high load devices like showers and cookers and heaters and vacumn cleaners and kettles first without taking th ewhole meter out . This will come in time.
4. The minister and the ESB expect us to PAY EXTRA for these trojan horses in our homes . Thank feck I have an old house with an inside meter0 -
While I found their infrastructure proposals to be vague and uninspired in general, I have to give them kudos for this (and a few other areas).
I wouldn't be so positive about that if I were you:
http://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/fergus-finlay/a-new-programme-for-government-who-do-they-think-theyre-kidding-103140.html0 -
OK costings
Bord gais spent 400 million building a 440 Mw combined gas Turbine plant in Cork. (please remember CGT plants are relatively expensive to build)
To build a 440mw wind farm would cost as follows.
Assume a 25% load factor.
So for 440MW output would require 1760MW installed at a cost of 1.5 million per MW.
2.64 Billion. V's 440 million or a difference of 2.44 Billion Euros....
That would buy a hell of allot of gas.
At 30% load factor that drops to a difference of 1.8 billion still a hell of allot of gas.
Add the cost of funding that extra 2.44 Billion and the costs grow even higher.... In real terms it would be closer to 4 billion in difference for the capital costs for a small 440 Mw generating plant for a CGT plant V's wind.
As for off shore...
Even assuming 2 million per MW installed and 40% efficiency.
that's 1100Mw installed or again 2.2 billion so funnily enough it does scale up.
The London Array project is approx 1,000MW installed and the quoted costs vary between (depending on source) 1.5 billion sterling and 2 billion sterling which would back your figure.
See wind power is not cheap....0 -
Irish and Proud wrote: »WS2 is no longer a standard - both the WS2 and 2+1 standards were replaced with the 2+2 spec. 2+1 is only to be used for retrofit purposes according to the current NRA DMRB document.
Regards!
That's probably going to change because of the revised Programme for Government which states that the 'appropriate road standards' in all of the 94 planned NRA schemes, especially 'design standards for national secondary routes' will be reviewed:We will review the completion dates and appropriate road standard of the remaining 94 road projects at the design stage or earlier stage of development in light of the economic circumstances, falling road usage and our climate change objectives. We will ensure new design standards for national secondary routes to take account of current economic and environmental circumstances.
They're going to review 'completion dates' too. It seems likely that a lot of these projects will not be completed within the Transport 21 time-frame.0 -
Jaysus knipex we may have gotten off on the wrong foot but full respect for that post!
I'll read it later this evening when I have time.
No offence was meant.....
I have had this same discussion with a number of your party members and when I started quoting figures I was brushed me off as a quack without even debating the subject. It was taken as fact that wind power is cheap and any discussion to the contrary was not allowed . They just refused to listen to facts...
So I admit I frustrated and defencive on this topic.0 -
The London Array project is approx 1,000MW installed and the quoted costs vary between (depending on source) 1.5 billion sterling and 2 billion sterling which would back your figure.
See wind power is not cheap....
I doubt if the Thames is 40% efficient , that figure likely only applies off the Atlantic coasts of Scotland and Ireland . It could be as low as 25% as against possibly 15% onshore in Kent and Essex.
Offshore will always be relatively better but it only makes sense in shallow waters right now and they are often on suboptimal coasts like east of Ireland and east of England .
The Norwegians , bless, have just launched a floating turbine into the Atlantic . Lets see how that goes0 -
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OK just on the costings...you can divide CGT costs into four sections:
1. Fuel
2. Cost of CO2 (ETS)
3. O&M
4. Initial investment, ie capital costs.
Above, you have just talked about number 4, which clearly favours CGT. So let's take your figures and have a look at both for all four costs for both technologies:
WIND
1. €0
2. €0 or very little
3. €1.2-1.5c/kwh
4. €1,000/kw
CGT
1. ?? Can't find a price as expressed in kw/h or €6.05/GJ
2. €0.007c/kw (c. 360g/kw, and assuming say €20/tonne)
3.
4. €1,000/kw
Edit, hang on...trying to find exact figures and I know I have to factor in load factor! Is there a load factor for CGT or do they run 100% of the time?0 -
I take it he checked .
Quite a good article on a lot of the typical wind assumptions here and how they are measured.
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_return_on_investment_%28EROI%29,_economic_feasibility_and_carbon_intensity_of_a_hypothetical_Lake_Ontario_wind_farm
Gas Turbines tend to spin up fast so they do not provide base load but are used to deal with sudden power demand . As their day to day usage is unpredictable it is difficult to contratc ahead and a lot of gas is bought on the spot market unless there is onsite storage ...but even then .
I would assume that the price of gas to a turbine is high ....even by gas price standards . Top third of rates apply I would think .
Finally the concept of EROI is important , The Oil Drum carries a lot of serious quality energy analysis . This piece is on EROI itself
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3786
Finally if you are trying to 'smooth' the intermittence of wind you need a lot of fast spin up gas plant rather than semi baseload 'traditional' gas that takes time to bring online .
CCT is the best 'cold start' technology and if we overly rely on Wind in Ireland we will tend to have a lot of CCT plant rathe rthan traditional gas plants because if it ain't a blowing we need a plan B , right now.
Our grid cannot deliver sufficient gas at short notice for unpredicatble fast spins so we therefore need CCT + Onsite Storage that can charge the tanks at off peak times which is even more expensive
We cannot , in fairness, design a reliable grid without fast spin technology to compensate for the intermittence of wind .
The more we rely on wind the more complicated we make it and principle demand side demand metering is almost impossible in Ireland right now even if the greens honestly explained what their beloved 'smart green' meters actuallly ARE , namely rolling spot blackouts .
It has gotten to the stage that the words smart and green , when used together in a sentence in Ireland , actually mean a sneaky kludge.0 -
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Sponge Bob, this is the smart meter I was referring to:
http://www.coolpower.ie/energycontrol/index.html
It doesn't require any energy blackouts at all. There are other plans by US companies that might not suit Ireland because we don't have our residential hot water boilers on 24hrs/day but they basically front-load the hot water boilers with sufficient heat for 3 days when the energy is available on the grid.
You're right about serious upgrade of grid and IT capacity of the grid required but our grid is ageing and is in need of an overhaul. We might as well incorporate this technology as we go. The very fact of putting a smart meter in a consumer's house has been proven to reduce electricity consumption by 10-15%.0 -
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OK just on the costings...what about fuel costs for the CGT?
Also carbon tax costs and other costs that are currently externalised, such as other forms of air pollution? I mean if we're going to talk about costs, let's talk about all the costs, right?
Also, just on the €1m/MW. I have EWEA data showing €1,000/MW for a typical 2MW turbine in Europe with a breakdown of costs. AWEA also have figures of $1000/KW. Can you provide a source for the €1m/MW and a breakdown of costs?
I didn't do a break down of fuel costs. But I think we can accept that you will buy a hell of allot of gas for 3 or 4 billion which is the difference in capital costs....
The wholesale cost of electricity in currently about €40 a MW hour (on the long term market) on the spot marker it varies all over the place from pretty much worthless to a multiple of €40) Funnily enough the spot price drops considerable when the wind is blowing as you have extra capacity which makes wind power pretty much worthless as stand alone proposition.
To sell it on the long term market and ensure it has any value you need to either build a CGT plant as a backup (which eats into your carbon benefits and savings) and adds to your costs or add some form of storage which will need significant grid investment and add even more cost.
Now you have the capital cost of the wind farm. Assume a 20 year life for a turbine and do the calculations on cost per MW to pay for the capital costs of the wind farm. Then add 10% for maintenance (as per your figures)....
Ahhh hell Im feeling generous..
24*365*20 = 175200 hours
multiplied by 440 Mw = 77,088,000 MW hours
Total cost for this many hours is 2.64 billion lets forget financing costs for the moment)
1Mw hour = €34 in capital depreciation alone ........................
add 10% for maintenance €37.40 per MW hour
Do you want to add financing costs now ?
Now to get market value you need to add the cost of the backup or storage..........
What about a margin ?
You are up near €80 to €90 now.....
As for the 1.5 million per MW installed. I have a number of sources for that the last of which was the Spirit if Ireland proposal. They estimated they could get the price down to 1.3 million due to the volumes they were buying and the lower installation costs associated with their proposal.
Its one of the reasons I insisted we agreed figures in advance.
If you can buy a 3Mw turbine for 3K or a 2Mw turbine for 2K then I will take 10 off you for my back garden.;)
Have a look at a small domestic turbine and the price.
edit see you edited to reflect Kw price not Mw.0 -
Strictly speaking that is an inside domain load balancer not a demand management meter and it does not interoperate with the meter either .
It is more of an intelligent fuseboard than an intelligent meter
Smart meters are basically designed so if the cops want to raid your house at 6am then the electricity will be cut off at 5:59am and there is nothing you can do about it but they will of course do a lot more than that .
There is a hell of a lot of work to be done on the different domains and interops
http://www.nist.gov/smartgrid/Report%20to%20NISTlAugust10%20%282%29.pdf
However we can do nothing much until the energy minister does something useful and works on the access deficit in communications networks .0 -
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Thanks for that knipex. A few questions:
-Is a CCGT plant going to be on 100% of the time?
-What would the cost in carbon credits be over, say a year?
-What are the O&M costs of CCGT plant over, again say a year?
-Is it the case that wind turbines life span is increasing beyond 25 years?
Also when you talk about providing back up - wind developers are not required to provide back up for their wind turbines. Surely enough conventional capacity already exists?
The EWEA report I'm using as reference also shows a cost of approximately:
- €73/MWh of onshore wind
- €63/MWh of offshore wind
- €55/MWh of CCGT
- €54/MWh of Coal
ie, wind is about 1/3 more expensive than CCGT or coal with the assumption of oil at $59/barrel.
BUT if oil goes up to $120/barrel, the costs change to:
- €73/MWh of onshore wind
- €63/MWh of offshore wind
- €95/MWh of CCGT
- €68/MWh of Coal
And also, is there not an economic cost to such fluctuations in energy price?
Sponge Bob - the EMMA can be bought and installed right now. What does the Energy Minister need to do for that to happen?0 -
Sponge Bob - the EMMA can be bought and installed right now. What does the Energy Minister need to do for that to happen?
Nothing at all, sure buy away , I recommend you avoid micro wind because the payback is about 12 years if it survives that long..... or something enormous like that
Demand metering , packaged as smart metering , will eventually be a form of eugenics in rural areas. Every time it gets cold and the grid gets stressed poor old country people will find their electricity turned off for 'the good of the grid' and that will not happen in Leafy D4 or D6 where core green voters may be found .
Genuine smart metering is a form of energy social contract and requires full disclosure of transmission domain and distribution domain metrics ( in real time) together with the generation domain data we get now . All of this requires ubiquitous low latency always on networks nationwide.
We have not even started to discuss this and in the absence of this information and the means to transmit it nobody should touch smart meters unless they are the kind of turkey who would vote for christmas .
I will end up having to firewall my dear old mothers kettle before long0 -
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Hang on - Smart Meters depend on Home Area Networks with individual appliances being connected up. They're not interested in appliances like kettles but rather the emersion, hot water cylinder, air conditioning - things like that.
Also, residential demand management devices won't work off on/off. The resident will be allowed to choose from a number of options on when and under what circumstances their electricity will be switched off.
Heh, I know how awful micro wind is. PV is quite successful though, well the real stats I have seen come back on installed residential ones are quite good.0 -
Hang on - Smart Meters depend on Home Area Networks with individual appliances being connected up. They're not interested in appliances like kettles but rather the emersion, hot water cylinder, air conditioning - things like that.
Also, residential demand management devices won't work off on/off. The resident will be allowed to choose from a number of options on when and under what circumstances their electricity will be switched off.
And this must be communicated right back to the NOC and the Billing system . if you program the aircon off ( on request) on a hot evening when the grid is stressed in California you should get credit for it against someone who said feck it , blast away .
Behaviour and outturn and two way real time communications between willing informed contracted parties are what a smart grid really is . If the grid is stressed aand a demand reduction request goes out then those who are seen to respond should get paid for it and those who do not should pay a premium .
This cannot happen in eamon ryans 3g mobile waffle bubble , it is technically impossible to communicateHeh, I know how awful micro wind is. PV is quite successful though, well the real stats I have seen come back on installed residential ones are quite good.
Only if you import it same as wood pellet stoves and boilers .
Paying sei approved installers their price gouger premium makes the business case much weaker .0 -
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Thanks for that knipex. A few questions:
-Is a CCGT plant going to be on 100% of the time?
-What would the cost in carbon credits be over, say a year?
-What are the O&M costs of CCGT plant over, again say a year?
-Is it the case that wind turbines life span is increasing beyond 25 years?
Also when you talk about providing back up - wind developers are not required to provide back up for their wind turbines. Surely enough conventional capacity already exists?
The EWEA report I'm using as reference also shows a cost of approximately:
- €73/MWh of onshore wind
- €63/MWh of offshore wind
- €55/MWh of CCGT
- €54/MWh of Coal
ie, wind is about 1/3 more expensive than CCGT or coal with the assumption of oil at $59/barrel.
BUT if oil goes up to $120/barrel, the costs change to:
- €73/MWh of onshore wind
- €63/MWh of offshore wind
- €95/MWh of CCGT
- €68/MWh of Coal
And also, is there not an economic cost to such fluctuations in energy price?
Sponge Bob - the EMMA can be bought and installed right now. What does the Energy Minister need to do for that to happen?
CGT plants are not designed to be base load facilities but rather load balance, hence their use as a backup for wind-power. They are inefficient and expensive to operate and would never have existed on our grid network except for the introduction of large scale wind power with its massively variable output.
As outputs are variable so are costs hence I just cannot answer your question.
The figures you quote for wind look reasonably Ok but I would think ignore the significant grid investment required and also the costs associated with the backup supply (which you will find is excluded from all wind power costings and from most discussion on the subject) which will increase that total.
Your costs for Gas and coal look high to me. Based on the current long term wholesale energy costs they look very high...
The cost of coal generated electricity is relatively unaffected by oil prices so I cannot see how the cost would increase so dramatically as oil prices increase. Demand on coal would no increase dramatically as there is a finite number of coal generating plants.
Coal power electricity is popular for one major reason. It is cheap.
As for the life of wind turbines. Some turbines manufactures are now stating 25 year life BUT that is on older, smaller and less efficient models. Also there is no data as to how maintenance costs will rise as the turbine life increases. Increasing turbine life by an additional 5 years will increase depreciation time but will also increase financing costs. Their will be a net savings but quantifying it would be difficult.
The final issue which you have not addressed is backup.
As oil prices increase so will the cost of the backup solution which will increase your wind costs. They are not immune to energy prices which is another issue that none of the proponents of wind power are willing to discuss.
There is one fact that is now agree is beyond dispute. Wind power is not cheap.
Load factors are critical to the economic feasibility of any wind farm. 35% should be a minimum but wind farm have been built and government supported in Ireland with load factors as low as 20%. There appears to be no research of planning involved.
I am not saying wind does not have its place, it most certainly does but how its being currently implemented in Ireland is an example of how not to do things...
If you can get load factors high enough and either sort out a storage solution of accept the true cost of backup when doing cost benefit then I support it 100%.
However this government have committed to spending billions upgrading our grid to accept a hodgepodge of small scale wind farms with no overall planning or cost benefit in place. All this will do is result in high electricity costs in Ireland for generations.
As there is no discussion allowed on the subject I am afraid that this will continue until we are at the stage where it all implodes and a number of companies go bust taking investors and jobs with them.
While I am not a supporter of Spirit of Ireland had have a number of concerns regarding their proposal they at least have accepted these two facts and have an interesting idea as to interfacing with the grid.
I would recommend you make contact with them as they have allot of data on wind and appear willing to share.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 6185
The figures you quote for wind look reasonably Ok but I would think ignore the significant grid investment required and also the costs associated with the backup supply (which you will find is excluded from all wind power costings and from most discussion on the subject) which will increase that total.Your costs for Gas and coal look high to me. Based on the current long term wholesale energy costs they look very high...Coal power electricity is popular for one major reason. It is cheap.The final issue which you have not addressed is backup.
As oil prices increase so will the cost of the backup solution which will increase your wind costs. They are not immune to energy prices which is another issue that none of the proponents of wind power are willing to discuss.There is one fact that is now agree is beyond dispute. Wind power is not cheap.Load factors are critical to the economic feasibility of any wind farm. 35% should be a minimum but wind farm have been built and government supported in Ireland with load factors as low as 20%. There appears to be no research of planning involved.If you can get load factors high enough and either sort out a storage solution of accept the true cost of backup when doing cost benefit then I support it 100%.However this government have committed to spending billions upgrading our grid to accept a hodgepodge of small scale wind farms with no overall planning or cost benefit in place. All this will do is result in high electricity costs in Ireland for generations.While I am not a supporter of Spirit of Ireland had have a number of concerns regarding their proposal they at least have accepted these two facts and have an interesting idea as to interfacing with the grid.
I would recommend you make contact with them as they have allot of data on wind and appear willing to share.
Edit: Also, we're not the only ones with this problem. What are the policies of countries like Denmark and Germany in relation to the integration of wind and other renewables? I know Germany have just launched a huge plan for Offshore in the North Sea and their EGG regulation requires the grid operators to pay for connection and energy utilities to prioritise the purchase of renewable energy.0 -
There is the argument that significant grid investment is required anyway, not just to allow for the integration of further renewables and so the cost of grid upgrade should be socialised.
Even if the cost of the grid upgrade is being primarially driven by the very nature of renewables and the relative small scale of production ?
Do you have a source? The costs include carbon credits.
The only source I have is a financial times story on wholesale electricity costs in the UK and France. Irish wholesale costs are about on par. I am not aware if they include the cost of carbon credits.Yeah, I know. It sucks.
There is some significant research into cleaning up coal burning with very interesting results. If the technology matures as expected then coal remains an option.Do you consider back up capacity the only solution in further integration of renewables? What about increased grid connection and demand management as well as increased energy efficiency in buildings?
Absolutely. Wind power is too variable you cannot guarantee supply and its either a backup \ storage or blackouts. Industry in Ireland will not survive without reliable power. It would destroy the country.
What you are talking about is to put it bluntly and no offence meant) nieve and does not take reality into account.
if you ration electricity we might as well shut down the country.
No but burning fossil fuels is even more expensive when the costs of climate change are factored in. What is the alternative?
Now you are talking ideology rather than reality.
You cannot ignore reality. Wind power is expensive, on its own it is not a solution. You are proposing power cuts, brown outs, even more expensive electricity than we have now and effectively rationing of power.
All that will achieve is drive all industry out of Ireland and put us back in the stone age.
Its is not an alternative.Yes I would consider load factors vital for planning purposes. But high load factors are possible. The average load factor in the North Sea, for example, is over 40%.
So why are we building wind-farm with low load factors ? We are we allowing these to go ahead. Why are we investing billions in a grid to connect these ?Is it a case that the larger the wind turbine the better, always?
Of course not. 3MW seems to be about the best point at the moment but as the technology matures larger turbines will become possible.Yes, they're having a conference or presentation soon that I hope to attend. But I'm not a supporter either. I have heard that the pumping efficiencies are not high and at a time when sea levels are expected to rise, I wonder about the long-term feasibility of the project.
Look at the recent data on sea level increases..............
Pumping efficiencies are far far higher than battery efficiencies.
Pumped Hydro is a well proven reliable technology. Even salt water pumped hydro is a proven and reliable. The main issue here is scale.Edit: Also, we're not the only ones with this problem. What are the policies of countries like Denmark and Germany in relation to the integration of wind and other renewables? I know Germany have just launched a huge plan for Offshore in the North Sea and their EGG regulation requires the grid operators to pay for connection and energy utilities to prioritise the purchase of renewable energy.
Denmark has the highest level of wind-power in the world.
Look at their electricity prices....
They also import allot of electricity as backup.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 6185
Even if the cost of the grid upgrade is being primarially driven by the very nature of renewables and the relative small scale of production ?The only source I have is a financial times story on wholesale electricity costs in the UK and France. Irish wholesale costs are about on par. I am not aware if they include the cost of carbon credits.There is some significant research into cleaning up coal burning with very interesting results. If the technology matures as expected then coal remains an option.What you are talking about is to put it bluntly and no offence meant) nieve and does not take reality into account.
Also, Wellinghoff, the new Chairman of FERC has been on record as calling the need for backup capacity "anachronistic" - do you think he's wrong?
But just on back up capacity, would you consider nuclear a viable technology? Apparently there is a new reactor in France that is very flexible in its output:“The most recent nuclear plant in France (Flamanville 3, in Lower Normandy, EPR standard design currently under construction) will have considerable response capability – being able to maintain its output at 25% and then ramp up to full output at a rate of 2.5% of rated power per minute up to 60% output and then at 5% of rated output per minute up to full rated power. This means that the unit can change its output from 25% to 100% of full rated output in less than 30 minutes.”So why are we building wind-farm with low load factors ? We are we allowing these to go ahead. Why are we investing billions in a grid to connect these ?Of course not. 3MW seems to be about the best point at the moment but as the technology matures larger turbines will become possible.Look at the recent data on sea level increases..............Pumping efficiencies are far far higher than battery efficiencies.Denmark has the highest level of wind-power in the world.
Look at their electricity prices....
They also import allot of electricity as backup.0 -
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