Your Predictions for the Economy Post Lisbon

kippy

constance tench wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sED3iApAvE

To be honest.
It'd be extremely difficult to prove whether any type of jobe creation was as a direct result or Lisbon, in the same way that it would be very hard to prove that any job loses will be as a direct result of Lisbon.
For example once COULD say that the rise in unemployment in the past year has been as a direct result of Lisbon not being ratified here first time out. No one said that, but its extremely difficult to prove or disprove it.

As I said above, interesting times ahead but we've far more local issues which will cause the man on the street problems than anything to do with the Lisbon treaty.

Rb

Ugh, the No side insist that this was not a vote on whether or not we want to be in the EU, nor should it have been used as such.

However, they do believe that it should have been used to show disapproval for our national government, and claim we've failed for having not done so.

Morons.

nullzero

Rb wrote: »

Ugh, the No side insist that this was not a vote on whether or not we want to be in the EU, nor should it have been used as such.

However, they do believe that it should have been used to show disapproval for our national government, and claim we've failed for having not done so.

Morons.

Thats a pretty big brush you have there for tarring all No voters.
I voted No but I didn't advocate protest voting against the government.
Enough stupid ****ers voted for them to be in power and how many of them are now complaining about them?
It's not as if they weren't warned.
They are the true morons.

K-9

kippy wrote: »

I really would love it if there was something similiar to boards.ie in the 70's when the first EU vote was held in this country.
We could look back on what the no side were saying about the EU and how bad it was for us. The same people continue to be very anti EU and I dont think a single thing has changed in their attitudes towards the EU since then. Despite all the good joining the EU has done for us. Of curse there has been some bad however in the majority it has been good.
While this hasnt been a vote for or against the EU, there were those who wanted to turn it such a way, on both sides.

Anyway, the no side will no doubt link anything "negative" that happens this country with the yes vote, while the yes side will anything positve that happens this country with the yes vote.
The reality, the treaty hasnt been ratified fully as of it and COULD still fall down, it will no doubt take years to see the results of this, but I think the whole thing, for the common man on the street was much ado about feck all really.
Theres far more sinister things happening in boardrooms and meetings that the public have no vote on, no idea of and which will have a far bigger impact on them. NAMA, bank bailouts, golden circles, government/Union/Ibec talks etc.....

Well said. Some of the ones now saying Lisbon will have little affect on the economy will be using the poor economy as reasons to vote No in future.

Whether we like it or not cuts have to be made as we can't go back to the 80's.

odoylerulez

free-man wrote: »

How do you think the economy will fare after Lisbon.

Are the mainstream parties right in that ratification of Lisbon will lead to economic recovery, a reduction in unemployment and more jobs?

Unfortunately I think the economy will not be effected by ratification.

Your thoughts?

Seriously is this a trick question? Do you live in ireland and europe and know how politicians do business. I give you a major clue. Its all lies..

Daftendirekt

I generally avoided speaking my mind on the link between Lisbon and the economy during the campaign, simply because I didn't want to make anyone think they were voting on economic recovery... But now that it's over, I can blab.

I don't think Lisbon will have any drastic effect on the economy. I do think however, that we're in a much better position now than we were two days ago. With Lisbon ratified, we've shown we're fully on-board with the other EU members, and any doubt for potential investors has been removed.

I don't think it's going to be a miracle cure for our economy; the only way we'll get out of this financial crisis is to get the banks lending and people spending again. But it is one element of uncertainty removed, and in the circumstances, that might just make a hell of a lot of difference.

RandomName2

Fuhrer wrote: »

Heres a wild idea...


Investment?

Investment?
Why because our taxes have gone down?
Because infrastructure has improved?
Because the education of our workforce is better?
Because we have opened up to new markets?
Because wages have decreased?
Because there has been a relaxation of union laws?
Because start-up costs are less?

because... we are 'pro-Europe'

Oh maybe Intel will get the Commission to overturn their previous judgement and RyanAir will be merged with AerLingus.

Wonderful.

deathofan80sman

Daftendirekt wrote: »

I don't think Lisbon will have any drastic effect on the economy. I do think however, that we're in a much better position now than we were two days ago. With Lisbon ratified, we've shown we're fully on-board with the other EU members, and any doubt for potential investors has been removed.

Well thats just dandy...coz we were so NOT on-board w the other EU countries while this govt, FF in particular, treated us to a freefall.

Our compliance certainly will make any recovery seem linked to lisbon and either way we need europe to emerge from recession relativley intact but the yes vote, like it or not, is a vote for the status quo in Leinster House and for the sake of appearing 'mature' we have risked irresponsibility.

The next general election WILL see FF brandishing its laurels of having legitimized peoples wishes re lisbon.

If the treaty gets shot down by czech or brit events over the next 6 months we won't give a toss.....we got what we wanted/needed....a pat on the head.

RandomName2

Rb wrote: »

Ugh, the No side insist that this was not a vote on whether or not we want to be in the EU, nor should it have been used as such.

However, they do believe that it should have been used to show disapproval for our national government, and claim we've failed for having not done so.

Morons.

A protest vote at a government who helped write Constitution/Lisbon, and a government which chose to put it a second referendum before the people - a government who promised jobs from this referendum who had been very adept at losing such jobs up until this point - a government who predicated the implementation of NAMA on Lisbon success.

The no side insisted that the yes side were making it a vote on whether or not to be in the EU.

Morons.

Daftendirekt

deathofan80sman wrote: »

Well thats just dandy...coz we were so NOT on-board w the other EU countries while this govt, FF in particular, treated us to a freefall.

Our compliance certainly will make any recovery seem linked to lisbon and either way we need europe to emerge from recession relativley intact but the yes vote, like it or not, is a vote for the status quo in Leinster House and for the sake of appearing 'mature' we have risked irresponsibility.

The next general election WILL see FF brandishing its laurels of having legitimized peoples wishes re lisbon.

If the treaty gets shot down by czech or brit events over the next 6 months we won't give a toss.....we got what we wanted/needed....a pat on the head.

By the same logic, a No vote would have been an approval of Cóir, Sinn Féín, Nigel Farage and UKIP, Declan Ganley and Libertas, the Socialists and the Communists.

So if you want to warp the result of this referendum to say that it gives the current government the approval of the electorate, then it's still better than the alternative.

deathofan80sman

Daftendirekt wrote: »

By the same logic, a No vote would have been an approval of Cóir, Sinn Féín, Nigel Farage and UKIP, Declan Ganley and Libertas, the Socialists and the Communists.

So if you want to warp the result of this referendum to say that it gives the current government the approval of the electorate, then it's still better than the alternative.

a logic that willfully excludes the context of reality... 'Cóir, Sinn Féín, Nigel Farage and UKIP, Declan Ganley and Libertas, the Socialists and the Communists' are not in the seat of power nor are considered to be...i didn't, for example, say that Mick O Leary got an endorsement coz thats no the point.

come the next general election FF will get back in on 'we saved ireland from itself by securing lisbon'......betcha

Daftendirekt

deathofan80sman wrote: »

a logic that willfully excludes the context of reality... 'Cóir, Sinn Féín, Nigel Farage and UKIP, Declan Ganley and Libertas, the Socialists and the Communists' are not in the seat of power nor are considered to be...i didn't, for example, say that Mick O Leary got an endorsement coz thats no the point.

come the next general election FF will get back in on 'we saved ireland from itself by securing lisbon'......betcha

So let them try. They'll still be voted out.

K-9

Daftendirekt wrote: »

So let them try. They'll still be voted out.

Exactly. It isn't a Yes to FF, or indeed a Yes to FG/Labour/Greens/IBEC/Ryanair/SIPTU etc.

The funny thing about Anti EU Treaty parties, they tend to become Pro EU Treaty parties when they get power.. The Workers Party/DL and the Greens being examples. They are just protest parties to gain coverage.

Ganley and SF play on voters just as much as FF.

Boskowski

Nothing will change.

We were in the sh1t before Lisbon and we will still be in it after. I mean this 'Yes to jobs' thing was at best - I don't know what to call it - metaphorical? Like - be positive and something positive will happen to you? And we all knew it, regardless whether we are 'Yes' or 'No' people.

I tell you - nobody actually realizes how deep we're in the sh1t. We're totally and utterly fvcked,

There's the budget thing, we gonna spend 20 billion more than we have this year. They just found another 2 missing actually, so that's 22 now. And that's including the 4 billion we gotta give to Anglo. Or is it 7 already? (You kinda lose track with all these billions flying around these days)
Chances are there'll be another 2 or so 'missing' by the end of the year cos our 'government' are doing their predictions still based on some cloud-cuckoo land figures from 2 years ago.

Anyway...

So they're going to hit us again in December but again it will be half-arsed. Has to be. I mean, if you go for broke there'll be even less of a tax take next year and more jobs lost. So basically they're fvcked. They need a lot more money but they can't take it cos it will make things worse. But they need it so bad that they'll take just 'a little' more. Which will only make things just 'a little' worse. But it won't be enough to stabilize things next year either. But it will only make things a little worse. We won't lose our Sky subscription just yet.

Also they gonna have to look at the public wage bill and also at the welfare stuff. But they gonna get huge resistance for every little thing they try. Your average PS worker is already feeling the pain but will be the easy target - especially with the anti-PS lynch-mob out there (and in here too). Where real money needs to be saved is health & education (roughly 75% of public expenditure between them). But, well, they won't go near that cos the teachers and nurses will fight tooth and nails and of course someone has to think of the children. So they squeeze a few more bob out of Joe the street sweeper and Annie the motor tax clerk but of course that wont make much of a difference either. Only Joe and Annie are rightly pissed off now. And of course the 'looking at' the public wage bill will never ever include their own wages. We will see more scandals, more expense bills and at best the odd voluntary token gesture from our political 'elite'.

Ah ye. And then of course the NAMA thingy on top of it all. That's going to be a right mess of course. That'll be some spectacle to see 2000 developers dragging another over-fvckin-paid quango to court over every single evaluation to begin with. Ye and the banks will get more cocky when they have the bucks and they will start increasing interest rates and probably get more pissy with Joe's & Annie's mortgage backlog. Of course we gonna lose billions over it - added to the billions that we already pumped into Anglo and Nationwide - and before we know it we have another tribunal because it's going to get real ugly then. It will also keep house prices up but hey who cares its not as if anyone could actually afford a house anymore. How we pay those billions back we have no idea really. I mean we were meant to make money on this after all weren't we? <snigger>

So all that s left to be done is to hope for the end of the recession to come along. But the problem is the whole tiger thingy started with us being educated and cheap so the multinationals came here and gave us jobs. But we're not cheap anymore and we're not as desperate for jobs anymore either. Also we have no industry to speak of and our agriculture is only surviving on the Brussels money. So yuck, no new boom in sight either.

There's my prediction for the next 2 years or so.
But none of this will have to do anything with Lisbon. We will have forgotten about Lisbon in no time at all because it will hit home very soon that we're in the sh1t more or less up to our eyeballs. Maybe, just maybe we gonna get some emergency funding of sorts from Europe. As we will be piss poor again and net receivers on a par with Transsylvania.

Basically the credit card bill for the last 10 year splurge just came through the door and we're still busy changing our underwear and haven't started thinking how to repay it yet. Why do we care about Lisbon?

Edit: Actually, now that I'm reading my little rant, we should probably care about Lisbon a lot because it seems Europe is our only hope to survive this mess. Why didn't I think of this earlier? I was a 'No' man all the way and now it seems I'm changing my mind...

K-9

What we need now is simple, a responsible opposition like Alan Dukes did.

To have that we need a FF Minister for Finance with b*alls. McSharry stood up to Haughey and Haughey could do nothing as it was a minority Govt. and the Minister for Finance couldn't resign.

Lenihan has that set of circumstances. He has dodgy Independents and soft Greens.

What we don't have is a responsible, strong FG leader who will put the national interest ahead of his political future.

A General Election would be great fun, but delays the chances of a National Govt. and recovery by years.

RiverWilde

The problem with this country is that when we find ourselves in need of strong political leadership we just stand around dithering. If someone does decide to step forward and lead, he gets stabbed in the back.

Backward, parochial, insular. Between the brown envelopes and the clientism that goes on it's a wonder the country functions at all.

Riv

rumour

If we have been given guarantees on taxation policy we must wait it out now until Lisbon is ratified everywhere.

Then we will have to exploit these to their maximum. Surely this is an advantage we must now use.

Lower taxes as low as possible to attract investment. The public service won't like this but there is going to be no money anyway.

marco_polo

rumour wrote: »

If we have been given guarantees on taxation policy we must wait it out now until Lisbon is ratified everywhere.

Then we will have to exploit these to their maximum. Surely this is an advantage we must now use.

Lower taxes as low as possible to attract investment. The public service won't like this but there is going to be no money anyway.

We don't have to wait.

free-man

marco_polo wrote: »

We don't have to wait.

We're probably better off waiting till the next accession treaty.. just in case.