Gael Poll answers on Lisbon2: 59% NO vs. 41% YES

isocket

Not sure if this is a repost, apologies if it is.

Gael Poll answers on Lisbon2: 59% NO vs. 41% YES

http://www.teameurope.info/node/603

BlitzKrieg

Spotted first at the Politics.ie forum and forwarded with utmost delight:

what the hell?

marco_polo

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

what the hell?

The shrills have invented their own poll for a morale boost.

BlitzKrieg

no seriously any link to the actual organisation. Google search throws up libertas and politics.ie and ukip talking about it but I cant find any links to the crowd themselves.

efb

Dyslecsic Sceptics?

isocket

marco_polo wrote: »

The shrills have invented their own poll for a morale boost.

Please sir/madam, read the link article.

"The last Gael Poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th 2008) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners. On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes. The uncanny poll prediction which was out by only a half a percent was the most accurate poll in the country."

Your on the ropes !

BlitzKrieg

looks like i am not the only one lost for answers

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/09/22/could-the-gael-poll-be-an-elaborate-hoax/

I cant even find their last poll that they did for the first referendum

efb

Rope a dope?

BlitzKrieg

irish sun website

http://www.irishsun.com/

no archive function from what I can see sadly

Euro_Kraut

This might give us some insight into 'Gael Poll' - http://www.teameurope.info/node/409

A new opinion poll shows that 70% of people do not want a rerun of the Lisbon Treaty. The poll also shows that if a new treaty was forced upon the electorate that it would end up being heavily defeated.

The poll was carried out by former staff members of the Catholic Hibernian magazine, who have now set up their own non-profit social affairs research organization Gael Poll.

Famously the last Hibernian opinion poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners.

On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes.

The uncanny poll prediction which was out by only a half a percent was the most accurate poll in the country.

At the time more established and heavily funded opinion polls were all over the place, and indicating that the Lisbon Treaty would be passed.

Scofflaw

I was reading a Slugger O'Toole post on this:

Slugger has just had sight of some polling figures, done by Gael Poll for tomorrow’s Irish Sun that suggests that big soft ‘don’t know’ may not be as soft as the Irish Times polling has been suggesting. On a nation wide sample of 1500 and in answer to some pretty straightforward questions, the figures they get are 59% NO ‘V’ 41% YES. Now those are flat figures, no weighting and the methodology so far as we can tell is pretty unconventional… But…

Update: Ladbrokes now only 7/2 NO.

The last Gael Poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th 2008) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners. On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes.

Talking to both yes and no camps, we reckon it’s much, much closer than that… In fact, it looks like there is still a slight advantage to the YES camp… Time will tell whether this survey is indicating another ‘black swan’, or a nasty swerve ball to try and put the opposition off their stride… 10 days until the end, when the plain people of Ireland get to pronounce on the fate of the Lisbon Treaty…

But then - today:

Slugger ‘got’ by partisan Euro ‘pollster’...

So what happened to Slugger’s great ‘scoop’ of last night? Well, first thing I tune into “What is says in the Papers” on Morning Ireland and… well, nothing… Then I go and look at the thread, and Dewi reports Mike Smithson at Political Betting (who’s parted with £100 on the strength of the same ‘tip off’ I got) is now suspicious its an elaborate hoax…

So I give the guy I spoke to at Gael Poll last night, Tom Prenderville, who points out to me that he never said it was going to be into today’s Sun… but stands over absolutely the fact that the paper ran with a similar poll last year… What I had was a press release sent out to all the major tabloid publications in Ireland and all the significant No campaigners… Most of them, it seems, had the good sense not to touch it with a barge-pole…

So that strange methodology I mentioned last night (and which should have triggered my own good sense)... The researchers were friends of the organisers who in turn interviewed people in their social groups, paying some attention to the spread of social class… It is, in effect a huge straw poll of the friends of Gael Poll, a derivative project of a pretty extreme ultramontane Catholic magazine, The Hibernian. In other words, if it measures anything accurately it has to be of the attitude of social groups surrounding one extremely anti Lisbon group indeed.

That is not in anyway an accurate measure of the national mood on Lisbon. That they got it dead on last time, may only be an indication of how their hinterland of folk matched that national mood, and perhaps something the journalists on the Sun may have been able to read across from their own instincts and soundings.

That they haven’t touched it this year suggest that attitudes may have hardened against those near the extreme of the debate, and the ‘polls’ more extreme variance from the national polling averages. But also that it is just as tight as both yes and no camps suspect…

So, as I have often rather pompously intoned in the past, speed kills. Sitting on the sharp end of what I thought was a good story, I neglected to do what I have often done in similar situations in the past: get a second sane opinion. That every newsroom in Dublin had the same story and saw through it demonstrates, that it’s not always the MSM that gets things wrong.

It appears Slugger is not impressed.

Tom Prenderville, of course, is the author of the €200bn in fish story. It's interesting to find him working for Hibernian magazine, which, in turn, is a Catholic-right outlet that ran several glorifications of Declan Ganley last year...

As to the swing in the No odds at the various bookies, it appears that they're the result of this "poll", as per the experience of Mike Smithson that Slugger refers to:

Have I just wasted £100?

Yesterday evening I got a call and an email purporting to be from the UKIP press office alerting me to a poll that was just coming out showing the the NO campaign in the Irish Lisbon referendum had taken a substantial lead.

It was said that before the 2008 referendum the same pollster had had a survey in the Irish Sun which had produced a prediction, within one percent, of the final result.

I was urged to make contact with the man behind the Gael Poll who would explain the methodology.

A search of Google could not find any news organisation that was putting out these numbers. Seven hours later, (at the time of writing it’s now 2am), I still cannot find any independent verification. The search page above shows what happened when I put “Gael Poll” into Google news search.

Alas after the “poll” was being discussed on the previous thread I did put £100 on at 11/2 on a NO victory with PaddyPower. That might turn out to be pretty foolish for on reflection it does seem odd that the leading Irish bookie was still prepared to lay such a bet at that price.

The polls that have been published in the Irish media are all suggesting a solid YES victory.

So, this appears, if you'll pardon my saying so, straight out of the dirty tricks department - and some people, like Mike Smithson, would probably have good grounds to sue for material damages.

Today, instead, the odds on a No have swung back the other way - possibly on foot of the realisation that a campaign that needs to resort to this kind of shady dealing is a campaign on the ropes.

cordially,
Scofflaw

K-9

isocket wrote: »

Please sir/madam, read the link article.

"The last Gael Poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th 2008) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners. On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes. The uncanny poll prediction which was out by only a half a percent was the most accurate poll in the country."

Your on the ropes !

Any links?

isocket

Scofflaw wrote: »

Today, instead, the odds on a No have swung back the other way - possibly on foot of the realisation that a campaign that needs to resort to this kind of shady dealing is a campaign on the ropes.

You corrected me earlier about campaigning?

The polls that have been published in the Irish media are all suggesting a solid YES victory.

The entire Irish mainstream media is on the yes side.
This is a David & Goliah battle & by God the No vote will win again!

K-9

isocket wrote: »

You corrected me earlier about campaigning?



The entire Irish mainstream media is on the yes side.
This is a David & Goliah battle & by God the No vote will win again!

Any links to the poll done last year?

Seen this on Politics.ie earlier and it seems that this is the only back up.

BlitzKrieg

This is a David & Goliah battle & by God the No vote will win again!

Why is it that I feel like i'm on the minority side if its such a david vs goliath battle. What has the yes side done that has completely outclassed the no campaign?

stabu

The actual naming of the poll, "Gael" ... is it intended to be self-affirming in some way? i.e. it suggests itself as representative of women's opinions as to whether to kick Gael out of bed for eating crisps?

isocket

I opened this thread.
Perhaps what I should have titled it is - Boards.ie & Gael Poll show lead for No Vote in Lisbon Treaty.

Now, who on the yes side will dare argue that Boards.ie are contacting their No friends to vote No on the Boards.ie poll?

This is the type of ridiculous arguments being put forward by Yes voters in this & other threads concerning polling in this referendum.

The Yes side are on the ropes, you are losing the debate & the Irish public are not idiots.

Sam Vimes

Members on politics.ie, a very anti Lisbon website, told people to sign up here and "make their voices heard". We had a huge influx of people with a few posts spreading bullsh!t all over the forum. It's safe to say they bumped up the no's significantly

But I wouldn't instantly dismiss a poll that showed a no leading, it's not beyond the realms of possibility. I dismiss this one because dismissal is clearly the correct course of action

Rb

isocket wrote: »

I opened this thread.
Perhaps what I should have titled it is - Boards.ie & Gael Poll show lead for No Vote in Lisbon Treaty.

Now, who on the yes side will dare argue that Boards.ie are contacting their No friends to vote No on the Boards.ie poll?

This is the type of ridiculous arguments being put forward by Yes voters in this & other threads concerning polling in this referendum.

The Yes side are on the ropes, you are losing the debate & the Irish public are not idiots.

So, should a Yes come through on October 2nd, you will maintain that the Irish people are not idiots...right?

Sam Vimes

[QUOTE=isocket;62225432
]
The Yes side are on the ropes, you are losing the debate & the Irish public are not idiots.[/QUOTE]

Just because people with anti-EU agendas won't shut the fcuk up lying doesn't mean they're winning the debate. They might succeed in tricking the Irish people if they repeat their lies often enough but they are by no stretch of the imagination winning the debate.

You better hope the Irish people are idiots because it's the only way the no side will win

isocket

Rb wrote: »

So, should a Yes come through on October 2nd, you will maintain that the Irish people are not idiots...right?

Of course I will.
However, unlike the Yes campaigners who are proving themselves incapable of accepting the result of the first referendum, I would interpret that should a yes vote occur on October 2nd, that the Irish public were treated like idiots by the entire political/religious/corporate/entertainment/media establishment & buckled under the pressure.
Unfortunately, this has happened before to an old & wise people like the Irish & doubtless it could happen again.
Should this occur, I will return to the allegory of The Cave & it's shadows

Scofflaw

isocket wrote: »

I opened this thread.
Perhaps what I should have titled it is - Boards.ie & Gael Poll show lead for No Vote in Lisbon Treaty.

Now, who on the yes side will dare argue that Boards.ie are contacting their No friends to vote No on the Boards.ie poll?

This is the type of ridiculous arguments being put forward by Yes voters in this & other threads concerning polling in this referendum.

The Yes side are on the ropes, you are losing the debate & the Irish public are not idiots.

Well, that post certainly has 'winner' written all over it. The boards.ie poll is unrepresentative of anywhere except boards.ie - and maybe not even that (thanks FutureTaoiseach). The Gael Poll is similarly unrepresentative. If they're right, it will be by a fluke. That's why this hasn't been published anywhere - it's rubbish.

[EDIT]It has since been published in the Daily Mail and the Irish Sun - which doesn't, I'm afraid change my opinion either of the poll, or those papers.[/EDIT]

cordially,
Scofflaw

Daftendirekt

Since we're posting random, unrepresentative polls, here's a boards one that looks promising for the Yes side.

tonycascarino

The poll appears to be legit.;)

http://www.theparliament.com/no_cache/latestnews/news-article/newsarticle/roche-admits-hes-nervous-over-vote-on-eu-treaty/

Euro_Kraut

tonycascarino wrote: »

The poll appears to be legit.;)

http://www.theparliament.com/no_cache/latestnews/news-article/newsarticle/roche-admits-hes-nervous-over-vote-on-eu-treaty/

How does that proves it legit??? It just mentions it.

tonycascarino

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

How does that proves it legit??? It just mentions it.

It proves that it's not bluff. I don't read too much into polls myself whether it's for yes or no. The reality is that October 2nd is the only poll that counts.

Euro_Kraut

tonycascarino wrote: »

It proves that it's not bluff. I don't read too much into polls myself whether it's for yes or no. The reality is that October 2nd is the only poll that counts.

All it proves is that the journalist did not do a very good job checking his sources. This poll has yet to be published anywhere. Until such time as it is, we should not pay any attention to it.

marco_polo

http://blogs.libertas.eu/ireland/tag/gael-poll/

As I said, shrills. Half expecting it to appear in the European Edition of the Wall Street Journal next, for the final act of legitimacy for the poll.


This one is more reliable apparently, because unlike the other polls it asks people how are they are going to vote on the Lisbon Treaty.

Anyways I am off to to some on the ground research at Oktoberfest for a few days. I am a bit aprehensive that I will be mobbed by Europeans begging me to save them from their sham democracies, but it is a chance I am willling to take. See you in five days suckers. :pac:

Euro_Kraut

marco_polo wrote: »

Anyways I am off to to some on the ground research at Oktoberfest for a few days. I am a bit aprehensive that I will be mobbed by Europeans begging me to save them from their sham democracies, but it is a chance I am willling to take. See you in five days suckers. :pac:

Prost!

isocket

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

All it proves is that the journalist did not do a very good job checking his sources. This poll has yet to be published anywhere. Until such time as it is, we should not pay any attention to it.

You are not going to find it published in the mainstream media since they are all on the yes side, that should be quite obvious at this stage, surely.

Again, Gael Poll, have proven to be correct on the last referendum, they may well be again

K-9

isocket wrote: »

Again, Gael Poll, have proven to be correct on the last referendum, they may well be again

Still awaiting a source on their poll last year. It shouldn't be that hard to find.

Surely just like you posted this thread and it is on p.ie, libertas etc., there must be a link to last years poll published in the Sun?

Otherwise, all we are relying on, is their word!

It must have been big news last year, going against the "mainstream" polls.

BlitzKrieg

K-9 wrote: »

Still awaiting a source on their poll last year. It shouldn't be that hard to find.

Surely just like you posted this thread and it is on p.ie, libertas etc., there must be a link to last years poll published in the Sun?

earliest mention I can find is: http://www.teameurope.info/node/409

ghost_ie

Sam Vimes wrote: »

Just because people with anti-EU agendas won't shut the fcuk up lying doesn't mean they're winning the debate. They might succeed in tricking the Irish people if they repeat their lies often enough but they are by no stretch of the imagination winning the debate.

You better hope the Irish people are idiots because it's the only way the no side will win

Don't you love it when a yes voter calls the no side liars. No argument, no rational debate, no putting forward of the facts as they see them - they just stamp their feet, scowl and says anyone who doesn't agree with them are telling lies.

If Brian Cowen has the gall to call for Lisbon III, I hope the yes side will have learned before the debate begins how to make a decent argument and not descend again to argumentum ad hominem which merely shows that you cannot defeat your opponent in a debate and resort to personal remarks and name calling instead

Scofflaw

I've seen a claim that the Gael Poll one came out in the Irish Sun on June 4th last year, but the nearest match I could find in The Sun archives is a poll talked about by The Sun on June 7th last year:

The shock survey has revealed that 35 per cent of the Irish intend to vote “No” in the referendum.

That compares to just 30 per cent in favour – and the “No” vote has doubled in just three weeks.

35/65 = 53.8% No

That might be it, but here's RTE from the 5th of June:

The latest opinion poll on the Lisbon Referendum is showing the 'No' side surging ahead in a dramatic reversal of opinion.

The TNS/mrbi poll in tomorrow's Irish Times shows opponents of the Treaty with a 5% lead over those in favour.

Up to now, opinion polls on the Referendum campaign have consistently shown the 'Yes' side ahead, although opponents have been closing the gap.

But now the 'No' side has done more than that, surging into a commanding lead with just a week to polling day.

The poll shows the 'Yes' side at 30%, down five points since their last poll three weeks ago, while the 'No' side is at 35%, up a staggering 17%, with 'Don't Knows' down 12 at 35%.

That makes it pretty likely that the one The Sun is talking about there on the 7th is the MRBI on the 6th. The Sun doesn't mention any other recent polls - instead this is a "shock survey".

Perhaps someone can dig up a copy of the paper edition of the June 4th Irish Sun. Otherwise, this story grows more fantastical by the hour.

amused,
Scofflaw

Captain Furball

Everyone should go out and vote.

Never mind these polls.

BlitzKrieg

I've seen a claim that the Gael Poll one came out in the Irish Sun on June 4th last year, but the nearest match I could find in The Sun archives is a poll

Well its meant to be the irish sun (linked to their website in an earlier post) but they have no archives nor a means to contact them so I guess the british sun is the next best source if they are sharing resources. But I think someone said earlier that the irish sun is owned by a different company.


Ghost.ie If you are so confident that *yes* voters dont back up their arguments and provide facts, I assume you'll have no problem representing the no side in the boards.ie debates. Note its not modded by the politics mods, so you wont have to fear *bias* since the admins would be modding it (and if I remember correctly and I might be wrong but Devore was a no voter in the first referendum.) so if the facts and truth are on your side I see no downside to you coming and giving them a whopping eh?

K-9

Scofflaw wrote: »

I've seen a claim that the Gael Poll one came out in the Irish Sun on June 4th last year, but the nearest match I could find in The Sun archives is a poll talked about by The Sun on June 7th last year:



35/65 = 53.8% No

That might be it, but here's RTE from the 5th of June:



That makes it pretty likely that the one The Sun is talking about there on the 7th is the MRBI on the 6th. The Sun doesn't mention any other recent polls - instead this is a "shock survey".

Perhaps someone can dig up a copy of the paper edition of the June 4th Irish Sun. Otherwise, this story grows more fantastical by the hour.

amused,
Scofflaw

I remember that MRBI poll alright. It was the first to show a big swing to the No side.

Strange. I mean this poll is on here, p.ie and the Libertas site but nobody can find any reference to last years one.

Jk_Eire

I was pretty astounded when I first saw this poll, yet reassured by the fact that only vigilant no campaigners were the only ones touting it.

Smacks of bias.

ArmaniJeanss

Does the website www.irishsun.com have anything to do with the newspaper? In style, content, fontsize, the presense of google ads etc it looks totally different to all editions of the paper and the papers main website. http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/

I think this is just clever use of words, they can say that something was published in Irish Sun and people take it to mean a high distribution newspaper, whereas it's just a two bob website.

PopeBuckfastXVI

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Does the website www.irishsun.com have anything to do with the newspaper? In style, content, fontsize, the presense of google ads etc it looks totally different to all editions of the paper and the papers main website. http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/

I think this is just clever use of words, they can say that something was published in Irish Sun and people take it to mean a high distribution newspaper, whereas it's just a two bob website.

Well it's

copyright© Midwest Radio Network Ltd 2002 - 2009. All rights reserved

Hitman Actual

While we're on the subject of polls of representative sections of voters, there looks to be massive support amongst farmers for Lisbon- 80% compared to about 40% prior to Lisbon I. That's a huge jump in support.

That Gael Poll is clearly ridiculous to anyone with an ounce of common sense. And I'm not sure if it's laughable or just pathetic the way some No supporters are creaming themselves over the results of that poll and the various boards.ie polls.

thebman

check the Internet archive for sun poll page I imagine.

BlitzKrieg

just did...no such luck it seems

though I am curious if the poll on osama bin ladin on the website was previously about lisbon?

Could be the source

kn

Scofflaw wrote: »

Well, that post certainly has 'winner' written all over it. The boards.ie poll is unrepresentative of anywhere except boards.ie - and maybe not even that (thanks FutureTaoiseach). The Gael Poll is similarly unrepresentative. If they're right, it will be by a fluke. That's why this hasn't been published anywhere - it's rubbish.

cordially,
Scofflaw

It was published in the Daily Mail Tuesday and the Irish Sun on Wednesday.

Sam Vimes

kn wrote: »

It was published in the Daily Mail Tuesday and the Irish Sun on Wednesday.

you mean the same newspaper that had a campaign for the introduction of the cervical cancer vaccine as soon as possible in Ireland while simultaneously running a campaign against its introduction in the UK because of supposed side effects?

http://www.thedailydust.co.uk/2009/04/16/daily-mail-campaign-targets-daily-mail-campaign/

A reliable source I'm sure

DeVore

We can top that for accuracy. Last time out our poll was within 0.1% of the final tally. Spooky.

I wouldnt be complacent if I were in the Yes camp. (I'm not in any camp by the way.)

DeV.