Rugby Betting thread

profitius

I thought we could do with a thread for rugby only.

At the moment I can't see any good bets but the season has just begun so hopefully in the next few weeks there might be some good bets. I was going to back the All Blacks this morning but the price put me off thankfully. It means that SA wasn't trying last week against Australia.

jkmanc1974

Possibly the wrong code, however St Helens to win the Super League grand final is definitely worth a bet at 2/1 with Skybet to win outright....

Brgds
Johnny

profitius

Matches this weekend include.

ML
Glasgow Vs Ospreys
Munster Vs Dragons
Connacht Vs Ulster
Cardiff Vs Scarletts
Edinburgh Vs Leinster

GP
Newcastle Vs Harlequins
Northampton Vs Leeds
Worcester Vs Sale
Bath Vs Leicester
London "Irish" Vs Wasps
Saracens Vs Gloucester

---

I fancy Ulster, Munster, Northampton, London Irish to win. I've only backed Ulster though.

profitius

Its the big match this weekend. Munster are about 8/11 (1.73) on betfair although theres no money there yet so that'll change.. After last year they'll want revenge but BOD will be back for Leinster. I think I won't have a bet on it.

Former Great

I know this is a good bit away but im waiting for the six nations and Ireland v England..I think England are certanties to win this in twickenham..Im wondering what price they wil be.. Hopefully evs but i reckon they will be slight odds on..

profitius

Former Great wrote: »

I know this is a good bit away but im waiting for the six nations and Ireland v England..I think England are certanties to win this in twickenham..Im wondering what price they wil be.. Hopefully evs but i reckon they will be slight odds on..

They'll probably be favourites but why do you think they're certainties? Ireland won the grandslam and could even be better by the time the 6 nations comes around.

Warper

profitius wrote: »

Its the big match this weekend. Munster are about 8/11 (1.73) on betfair although theres no money there yet so that'll change.. After last year they'll want revenge but BOD will be back for Leinster. I think I won't have a bet on it.

I'm looking forward to this match but not as a betting proposition - it could go either way so just sit back and enjoy.

I've backed France myself for the 6 Nations @ 5-2 mainly because they have 3 home games incl. Ireland and England at home.

Former Great

profitius wrote: »

They'll probably be favourites but why do you think they're certainties? Ireland won the grandslam and could even be better by the time the 6 nations comes around.

Johnson is doing a good job with this english team..They destroyed France in twickenham , should have beaten wales and we scraped over them in Croke Park ..They will win the championship i would say and will go close to the grand slam, they could slip to France in Paris but there recent record there is good..

jkmanc1974

jkmanc1974 wrote: »

Possibly the wrong code, however St Helens to win the Super League grand final is definitely worth a bet at 2/1 with Skybet to win outright....

Brgds
Johnny

Saints v Leeds in the final next Saturday, very close to call but St Helens have to be backed at 13/8 with PP, massive price!!

Brgds
Johnny

superfootyfan

So what are everyones picks for the Heineken Cup this weekend I like the look of Ulster at home to Bath myself

8-10

superfootyfan wrote: »

So what are everyones picks for the Heineken Cup this weekend I like the look of Ulster at home to Bath myself

London Irish in the RDS. You can get up to 3/1 according to oddschecker, I fancy that big time.

Leinster have obviously just come off a massive win, but don't forget how much better improved this season the Irish are. Armitage being out is a blow, and why Ryan Lamb is on the bench is anyone's guess. But I really like the Samoan pairing in the centre which could disrupt the creativity of Leinster's backline.

Irish have scored 149 points so far this season, including 40 against Gloucester and 56 against Leeds....about 50points more than the next team (Saracens I think?)

Also they've scored 15 tries, next closest is Wasps with 10. Very impressed with them this year and I think they're dark horses for the Pool Winners.

I agree with Ulster v Bath, might look into that one too. But for value, London Irish at 3's are my pick this weekend. Also my advice would be to steer clear of the Tigers v Ospreys game, neither team on top form yet, hard to predict.

cson

I'd take Irish on the handicap but not to win outright. I just do not think they'll have enough about them to turn over Leinster in the RDS. Leinster have a fantastic set of forwards securing ball for a pretty potent back line at the moment. I'm on Leinster.

profitius

I'm backing Ulster to beat Bath. They're playing well at home and I think they'll win because Bath might not be targeting the HEC either.

soundsham

1 london irish are 4/1 on betfair
2 handicap is 7 pts

does 4/1 on match where the h'cap is 7 pts not seem large?

anyway it does, to me so I've had a nice few bob on Irish......all I want is for them to start well by scoring 1st or keep the game tight or be close for 20 mins or till @ ht

surely the 4/1 will tumble if either of these happen
and should be able to lay off the bet to profit........

thats the plan no1.for the weeekend anyway,:D

2 & 3 may be revealed later;)

soundsham

phew....layed Irish @ 2.36 having backed em @ 4.9
bit sweaty in 1st half though irish went out to 6/1

profitius

I've just looked at saturdays games. A few stand out but I don't think I'll do anything. Maybe have a look at Llanelli and munster.

Cardiff Blues 2/5 Vs Harlequins 11/4. Cardiff seems a short price .

Llanelli 4/7 Vs Brive 7/4 Dunno how Brive will approach it. Any sign of them resting players then Llanelli will be worth a bet.

Glasgow 6/5 Vs Biarritz 10/11 Same as the Llanelli brive situation I'd imagine.

Northampton 5/6 Vs Munster 10/11

profitius

I'm backing Munster. The lineout will improve they'll get back to basics and the backs will have better ball.

TheSpecialOne48

Hey Profitius,

Great thread mate, loving betting on the rugby and delighted the HC is back.

Bit of aftertiming but followed you in with Ulster at evens (bet of the weekend) had London Irish yesterday as well (I'm a leinster fan but thought the price in runnning was great value)

Not so much luck today backed Quinns against the blues, watching Glasgow v Biarritz now but no bet.

Going to follow you again with munster so fingers crossed, any thoughts on sunday games yet ???

Cheers,

profitius

Shocking from Munster. Handling errors and soft tries given away and still they'd a chance to win it. Scrums and lineouts were ok but the rest was poor.

TheSpecialOne48 wrote: »

Hey Profitius,

Great thread mate, loving betting on the rugby and delighted the HC is back.

Bit of aftertiming but followed you in with Ulster at evens (bet of the weekend) had London Irish yesterday as well (I'm a leinster fan but thought the price in runnning was great value)

Not so much luck today backed Quinns against the blues, watching Glasgow v Biarritz now but no bet.

Going to follow you again with munster so fingers crossed, any thoughts on sunday games yet ???

Cheers,

I took a risk with Munster and it backfired again. Northampton are an average team but do the basics well and that was enough today but I'm disappointed with Munster again. They're not match fit at the moment. Its a long season though.

Tomorrow I'm having no bets. Nothing stands out really.

myflipflops

profitius wrote: »

Northampton are an average team but do the basics well .

Can't agree with that. Northampton are a really good side this year. The signing of Geraghty looks a good move for club and player. They have a big pack, lots of experience and a bit of gas out wide. Maybe lacking something in the 12/13 channel but tick a lot of boxes in my opinion.

I backed them (as posted here a while ago!!) to win the outright @ 40/1. Don't think they're the best team in it but it was a big price. Perpignan losing to Treviso is a big plus to Saints and Munster. The French will give up the ghost now and both sides should make the quarters.

profitius

pwhite587 wrote: »

Can't agree with that. Northampton are a really good side this year. The signing of Geraghty looks a good move for club and player. They have a big pack, lots of experience and a bit of gas out wide. Maybe lacking something in the 12/13 channel but tick a lot of boxes in my opinion.

I backed them (as posted here a while ago!!) to win the outright @ 40/1. Don't think they're the best team in it but it was a big price. Perpignan losing to Treviso is a big plus to Saints and Munster. The French will give up the ghost now and both sides should make the quarters.

Compared to Munster they're average. How many Northampton players would get on the Munster team? Munster were very poor and still Northampton were hanging on near the end. I couldn't believe the amount of mistakes Munster made. The lineout went well but then they lost their own lineout on the Northampton line which summed it all up. I don't think a Northampton winger touched the ball because of their limited gameplan.

Yeah I think you're right about Perpignan. At that price you could hedge your bet if Northampton get through the group.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

for value, London Irish at 3's are my pick this weekend. Also my advice would be to steer clear of the Tigers v Ospreys game, neither team on top form yet, hard to predict.

Happy with that, Irish won (I know they went bigger than 3/1) and Tigers drew with Ospreys which I'd never have backed.

profitius

Perpignan Vs Northampton. The prices are not out yet but if I think Perpignan are up for this I'll have a nice bet on them. They are french champions and Northampton are not so good away.

Brive Vs Leinster Its a must win game for Leinster and I think they'll play better then they did against LI. I don't think they'll let chances slip away again.

Bath Vs St Francis. On paper an easy win but you can't trust Stade to have the right attitude.

8-10

profitius wrote: »

Bath Vs St Francis.

of Assisi?

I agree with your first 2 choices, but I don't think there's value in the Bath game. Both teams odds on? No thanks.

I'm going with Ulster, Leinster and Ospreys. I'm guessing Ospreys will be in the region of 8/13, making the treble a little better than 6/1 overall. (PP prices) Ulster going to be the big gamble obviously.

Warper

profitius wrote: »

Perpignan Vs Northampton. The prices are not out yet but if I think Perpignan are up for this I'll have a nice bet on them. They are french champions and Northampton are not so good away.

Brive Vs Leinster Its a must win game for Leinster and I think they'll play better then they did against LI. I don't think they'll let chances slip away again.

Bath Vs St Francis. On paper an easy win but you can't trust Stade to have the right attitude.

The French are notoriously strong at home and crap away from home. Perpignan have to beat Northampton but I feel they are out of the HC already after last weeks debacle. Next weekend they are away to Munster so expect 2 defeats out of 3 there. Munster are trading @ 8-11 or 4-6 to win this Group and I think that is printing money. They have 2 home games next Treviso and Perpignan and that should catapult them to the top.

Brive could be tricky enough at home but Leinster have to win. Havnt seen any odds on this but the bookies might have Leinster very short so would avoid that.

funnyname

profitius wrote: »

Perpignan Vs Northampton. The prices are not out yet but if I think Perpignan are up for this I'll have a nice bet on them. They are french champions and Northampton are not so good away.

I know French teams at home are very hard to beat but given their failure to beat Treviso last week I won't be putting any money on them. Over the years only Stade Francais and Toulouse have consistantly shown any real interest in winning the HC.

ALTESSE100

Brive could be tricky enough at home but Leinster have to win. Havnt seen any odds on this but the bookies might have Leinster very short so would avoid that.[/quote]


leinster handicap is 6 pts

Warper

PP only have prices atm and Leinster are 4-9 and as said - 6 in the handicap. Avoid.

Munster are -32 pts - thats a lot of points and avoid

Anyways odds here

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/

cson

Jesus I'd definitely fancy Treviso to beat Munster with a handicap that size. Munster are lacking a bit of fluency that'll come later and I definitely can't see them covering a handicap that size, even at Thomond. Thats at least 5 converted tries :eek:

Blut

3rding Treviso +32 as looking good. Might also throw a tenner on a treble of Ulster&Leinster winning and Munster failing to beat the spread.

PhatPiggins

Blut wrote: »

3rding Treviso +32 as looking good. Might also throw a tenner on a treble of Ulster&Leinster winning and Munster failing to beat the spread.

I'll try and play devils advocate.

Are Treviso that good because they beat Perpignan, they gave Perpignan trouble in both group games last season but were thrashed by Leicester and the Ospreys(by an average of 50+points)

How far are Munster from hitting fifth gear? They were in neutral against Leinster, played most of the Northampton game in third gear, can they up it again this weekend. To be honest even fourth gear will put 40 points on Treviso.

If DeVilliers and Mafi click they could run riot and Munster will know that a five pointer will put them back in control of the group.

I'm not touching this one to be honest as I'm not sure which Munster team will turn up.

Kalashnikov_Kid

Sale vs Cardiff tonight. Cardiff 11/10 to win outright on brooks. I know Cardiff haven't been their best but Sale have been rubbish this season - get it in!

soundsham

6/4 on betfair
on it too

PhatPiggins

soundsham wrote: »

6/4 on betfair
on it too

Cardiff have a lot of injuries and reports of the flu doing the rounds earlier in the week.

Thought Cardiff were flattered by last weeks score and they've been awful in the ML.

Blut

Last weeks result for Treviso was probably flattering alright, I still can't really see Munster putting 32 points+ on them though. Munster will play for their bonus point and completely relax after that, probably make a rake of substitions and lose all shape, hopefully conceeding a few points. With Flannery and Hayes out the Munster scrum and lineout should be fairly weakened too, hopefully limiting their scoring or at least slowing it down. If I had to call an exact score I'd be expecting Munster by 20-25pts.

Cardiff have been as bad in the ML as Sale have been in the GP so I dont think I'd be entirely comfortable betting on them either.

Kalashnikov_Kid

I reckon Charlie 'reliable under pressure' Hodgson could have another howler on the back of returning from injury - I'm hoping anyway!

soundsham

looks a bad call rush is out but gethin jenkins returns
now 15/8 though:(

8-10

I like Cardiff now @ 11/2. 8pts down but capable having watched them vastly improve this second half.

Don't want to aftertime but I got a better price before Powell's try. 11/2 now I think is a great price. 58th minute, 24-16 Sale.

PhatPiggins

8-10 wrote: »

I like Cardiff now @ 11/2. 8pts down but capable having watched them vastly improve this second half.

Don't want to aftertime but I got a better price before Powell's try. 11/2 now I think is a great price. 58th minute, 24-16 Sale.

Unlucky there bud. Better game then I thought it would be. Hopeless refing once again from a frenchman.

8-10

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Unlucky there bud. Better game then I thought it would be. Hopeless refing once again from a frenchman.

I only had a small bit on, just thought I'd share the price as they'd been playing very well up to the try, 75% of second half possession I believe, and still a decent price after the score.

I think they were unlucky, one of Sale's tries was a bit dubious. But at 24-9 down I'm sure they would have taken the bonus point.

My big bet this weekend remains Leinster, Ulster and Ospreys @ roughly 6/1.

Blut

That Munster bet is looking fairly decent right about now, lets hope I'm not speaking too soon...

Brive to score less than 17.5pts @ 6/5 against Leinster is tempting me at the moment before that game kicks off, given Brives bad scoring record this season and Leinsters fairly solid defense.

Juwwi

good god that +32 was jammy in the end :eek:.

I was hoping that ogara had a bet on the +32 when he went for that conversion at the end.

relying on brive now +6 for the double

PhatPiggins

I like the look of under 39 points in the Quins game.

Toulouse tend to be the arch minimalists when playing away. Quins dont score much or concede many and Toulouse tend to play a much more forward orientated game when playing abroad

Juwwi

robbie1977 wrote: »

good god that +32 was jammy in the end :eek:.

I was hoping that ogara had a bet on the +32 when he went for that conversion at the end.

relying on brive now +6 for the double

Never got any run for my money with brive at all.
god some of their players are brain dead.
I was'nt in the changing room at half time but it would'nt take a brain surgeon figure out that the manager must of said stop giving away so many penaltys.
1 minute and 20 seconds into the second halfand they had given away another 2 penaltys.

Went back down and backed toulose -5.

why they did'nt take a shot at goal with the 82nd minute with the penalty l dont know .it was the last kick of the game.
they got the penalty just before that from further out so the ball was gona dead if he missed.

ah sometimes when your luck is out its just out.

myflipflops

robbie1977 wrote: »

why did'nt take a shot at goal in the 82nd minute with the penalty l dont know .it was the last kick of the game.

If they kick goes short/left/right and is kept in play then it's still alive and Quins can counter. No reason to kick the points as Quins still got a losing BP even if Toulouse kicked them. Booting it out and ending the game was the best option.

Frustrating for you though! Unlucky.

Juwwi

pwhite587 wrote: »

If they kick goes short/left/right and is kept in play then it's still alive and Quins can counter. No reason to kick the points as Quins still got a losing BP even if Toulouse kicked them. Booting it out and ending the game was the best option.

Frustrating for you though! Unlucky.

+1 just talking through my pocket.

heres hoping they lose the group by point difference by 3 points tho .;)

profitius

I'm going with Stade to beat Bath. Stade are targetting the HEC this season (final in Paris) and are in great from since saking the coaches a few weeks ago. Bath have not been so good.

profitius

Bump

Anyone fancy Ireland to beat the Aussies?

funnyname

A £30 double at 3.65 of Ireland - 20 and New Zealand - 13

profitius

Argentina +9.5pts. They're usually tough opposition.

Warper

PP have odds up for this weekends Ire v SA match and SA are 4-6 with Ire 5-4. SA -3pts 10-11.

I have been thinking of this match for the past week and have been waiting for the prices to go up. South Africa should win this and I will take the 4-6 if it is the best price available but feel someone will go at least 8-11 or possible 4-5. There is no doubt that they have the better team and they are looking like the bet of the weekend already.