Pricewise & Wayne Bailey Tips Log

Fromvert

argosy2006 wrote: »

do you follow hugh taylor, yes he has been in great form this week, while pricewise has been in awful form,, but thats de way it goes,,,,
or do you back hugh taylors tips to?
i,m down 1500 since monday,so can see your point BOX,, but things have to turn round, i keep having to increase my bet as the losers rack up,,bets are in hundreds now

Seriously buddy you are doing the worse thing any gambler should do and thats chase the money you lost. If this is a regular thing you should re think how you gamble.

Boxfresh

argosy, you should just consider that 1500 lost for now and only gamble with what your comfortable with. Increasing your bets to hundreds was a bad idea and your only digging a bigger hole for yourself.

careca

Anyone who backs horses everyday or follows a tipster every day will lose money in the long run. Remember its the tipster's job to give their selections each day. I'd imagine some days they are scratching their heads to find something, but they have to pick one/two.

Any serious punter who wants to make money from racing, will probably have no more than 4/5 bets a year (that may be a bit conservative).

for the rest of us who like to have a bet most days or certainly at the big festivals, then its a case of limiting our losses and enjoying the days when we do win a few bob.

thedini

careca wrote: »

Anyone who backs horses everyday or follows a tipster every day will lose money in the long run. Remember its the tipster's job to give their selections each day. I'd imagine some days they are scratching their heads to find something, but they have to pick one/two.

? Come on Careca, there's value to be had in every single race, finding it is the difficult part, but to say that it's not possible for a tipster to be successful in the long run is incorrect.

Any serious punter who wants to make money from racing, will probably have no more than 4/5 bets a year (that may be a bit conservative).

Lol, where do these figures come from, there are many ways to skin a cat.

for the rest of us who like to have a bet most days or certainly at the big festivals, then its a case of limiting our losses and enjoying the days when we do win a few bob.

Agreed.

wb

argosy2006 wrote: »

do you follow hugh taylor, yes he has been in great form this week, while pricewise has been in awful form,, but thats de way it goes,,,,
or do you back hugh taylors tips to?
i,m down 1500 since monday,so can see your point BOX,, but things have to turn round, i keep having to increase my bet as the losers rack up,,bets are in hundreds now

Seriously man, you need to quit while you are behind. I think the original poster set this up for a bit of fun. The amount you are betting with could not make betting a fun activity. Loss chasing is never going to work. The OP is using sensible €2 stakes as nothing has been proven long term yet. Indeed it mixes high SR (mine) selections at short prices with low SR (pricewise) selections at long prices. It's supposed to be a bit of craic. I'd feel uncomfortable to know you are betting my selections with such stakes and there are disclaimers all over the site saying it may not be profitable long-term.

careca

Ok I agree with some of your points thedini (I just plucked the 4/5 bets figure from the air) but I suppose I was trying to say that you should limit your bets to when you are getting very good value on something that you really fancy.

Its ok to say you can get value in every race, but do you back a 150/1 shot because he really should be 66/1, even though you really fancy the 1/4 shot in the race?

As for tipsters, again fair enough, some of them might show profit over a year or so (I don't know enough about them to verify this) but I just feel blindly following them is not the way to go. For example, (and we will forget about the templegates etc for this, as they have to pick a horse in each race each day) Wayne Bailey* writes an article each Sat for the indo and picks a couple of horses for the day (likewise Johnny Ward in the Sunday indo - picks one, maybe two for the day). Now what would happen if Wayne or Johnny didn't find any value that Sat/Sun or simple didn't think something was worth a punt. Do you think they would say to the editor "sorry - nothing jumping out at me today" or would they just pick something anyway and go with it to ensure they have a column?


*Not picking on WB in particular as I like his articles and his selections are well researched and I know he posts here. Just using it as an example.

thedini

Its ok to say you can get value in every race, but do you back a 150/1 shot because he really should be 66/1, even though you really fancy the 1/4 shot in the race?

I can understand the point you are making, I wouldn't back it in this instance (except, maybe as a once off), because you would need a betting bank which tbh isn't feasible. The losing runs chasing a 66/1 shot would be horrendous and Bill Gates would be doing well to be able to sustain them.

As for tipsters, again fair enough, some of them might show profit over a year or so (I don't know enough about them to verify this) but I just feel blindly following them is not the way to go.

I agree, unless it's for a bit of fun/interest, to back them seriously then they definitely need a proven record.

Do you think they would say to the editor "sorry - nothing jumping out at me today" or would they just pick something anyway and go with it to ensure they have a column?

Agreed.

[/quote]

Boxfresh

Pricewise Extra
1.45 York - Cosmic Sun @ 6.4
5.20 Sals - Kings of Windsor @ 2.82

Wayne Bailey
4.25 Sand - Super Sleuth (non runner)
5.00 Sand - Brett Vale @ 1.44
7.35 Kilb - All Rise @ 3.1

Tom Segal (Pricewise)

1.45 York - Classic Vintage @ 7.2
3.25 York - Equiano @ 32 to win and 8.4 to place

All €2 singles

Bank €61.49

raheny red

Apple Orange wrote: »

Well considering the bookies all rock up to the races in top of the range brand new cars I'd safe the only safe bet is that they always come out on top!!

Have you seen the cars that the failed bookies are driving in?!

Apple Orange

raheny red wrote: »

Have you seen the cars that the failed bookies are driving in?!

Failed Bookies??? Are you serious?! The only one I know of is John McCririck! I expect even the failed bookies would be driving something as good as your average punter anyway!

Boxfresh

Failed bookies are as rare as hen's teeth.

Apple Orange

I plan on making my fortune laying favourites at Cheltenham next March! Not sure how many won this year, I know 2 won out of 4 days in 2008! There has to be scope for profit there! And one of the winning favourites was Master Minded, possibly the one favourite all week you definitely wouldn't be laying. Well, I wouldn't have!

wb

careca wrote: »

Ok I agree with some of your points thedini (I just plucked the 4/5 bets figure from the air) but I suppose I was trying to say that you should limit your bets to when you are getting very good value on something that you really fancy.

Its ok to say you can get value in every race, but do you back a 150/1 shot because he really should be 66/1, even though you really fancy the 1/4 shot in the race?

As for tipsters, again fair enough, some of them might show profit over a year or so (I don't know enough about them to verify this) but I just feel blindly following them is not the way to go. For example, (and we will forget about the templegates etc for this, as they have to pick a horse in each race each day) Wayne Bailey* writes an article each Sat for the indo and picks a couple of horses for the day (likewise Johnny Ward in the Sunday indo - picks one, maybe two for the day). Now what would happen if Wayne or Johnny didn't find any value that Sat/Sun or simple didn't think something was worth a punt. Do you think they would say to the editor "sorry - nothing jumping out at me today" or would they just pick something anyway and go with it to ensure they have a column?


*Not picking on WB in particular as I like his articles and his selections are well researched and I know he posts here. Just using it as an example.

You've hit the nail on the head really with regard to newspapers.

I've received an email one time asking me why I wrote about certain horse in the Indo on the Saturday but I didn't put it on my site at a tip. The horse was far from a certainty and I hadn't got 100% confidence so I didn't put it on the site. But he caught my eye and I though he was a little overpriced. I wrote as much in the paper and told punters I had reservations.

That's the difference between tipping services and newspaper writers. I must admit that the Indo give me free reign to write what I want - but I only write on Saturdays. If my main bet of the week happens to be on a Friday, there's not much I can do about that. There are some days that nothing stands out as a cert (sorry to use that word) but I still write about the racing and give my thoughts - as most people bet on Saturdays more than any other day. That said, my Indo column is slightly ahead for the year so I'm not saying there are no decent bets in there.

You have to bear in mind that many readers will have only a passing interest in racing and will want to hear about the big race of the day. There's no point in writing about a seller in Wolverhampton if the Grand National is on, people just don't want to know! However, from a betting point of view, the seller may offer the better opportunity.

But I like to think that the readers know the score and can differentiate between newspaper 'tips' and a tipping service. Some tipsters have to write about something every day and that must be extremely difficult to do. Selectivity is the key in racing but hopefully most readers know the deal when they buy a newspaper. Most readers are not serious punters and just want to get your thoughts before they place a few fun bets. Others may know a lot about racing but your article may give them food for thought or point out something they overlooked. Even though I write about racing myself, I still love to read the RP and the RFO and other newspapers etc and I'll often find something that makes me think twice about having a bet . I certainly don't know it all (far from it) and am always looking to learn.

People say that once you've picked your horse, you should 'never change your mind' but if the circumstances demand that you change your mind (perhaps you overlooked something), you must be open to doing that. Often, I'll read something in the paper I may have overlooked myself and it makes me think twice. There are some good newspapers out there (the aformentioned Johnny Ward is also well up for the year) but it's not as easy as it looks! Blindly following anything is probably not the best idea in the world but newspaper tipsters can be helpful in helping you to make up your mind or maybe reinforce an opinion you may have made on your own. Likewise, they may make you question your bet, and that's not always a bad thing. On my site, I state "Wayne Bailey racing simply serves as an information service but it’s up to the individual to decide for themselves if they want to act on that information or not. Wayne encourages punters to consult the form book and make up their own mind on his selections! "

I think this should be how most people approach tipping/following tips.


On the flip side, tipsters should be able to put up with a bit of stick now and then - most are getting paid after all. Believe me, the stick does come during a losing run and you have to have skin like leather. There's also a a moral side to it when you tip a rake of losers some days (knowing someone lost money because of you). People don't consider that either but I think about it quite a bit when I'm writing.

raheny red

Boxfresh wrote: »

Failed bookies are as rare as hen's teeth.

But to suggest that they are 100% bomb proof is ludicrous.

onemorechance

Friday August 21 2009
Sandown 16:25

Capital Group Recruitment Maiden Fillies' Stakes
£5000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m 14y, Class 5, £3238.00 penalty
5 runners
Going: Good
Results
1st Flora Trevelyan 4/5fav

2nd Chicora (USA) 4/1
Non-Runners
3 00-045 Ela Gorrie Mou 22 BF 3 9-0 T T Clement C Catlin 60 nag me NR
7 (5) 252-230 Super Sleuth (IRE) 89 3 9-0 B J Meehan R Hughes 107 nag me NR

Friday August 21 2009
Sandown 17:00
Hampton Court Handicap
£8000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m 2f 7y, Class 4, £5181.00 penalty
5 runners
Going: Good

Result: 1st Master Fong (IRE) 5/1
2nd Nawaadi (USA) 7/1

Non-Runners
6 (4) 655 Dubai Gem 77 3 9-0 Jamie Poulton M Halford (3) 68 nag me NR

Boxfresh

Pricewise Extra
1.45 York - Cosmic Sun @ 6.4 Lose
5.20 Sals - Kings of Windsor @ 2.82 Lose 2nd

Wayne Bailey
4.25 Sand - Super Sleuth (non runner)
5.00 Sand - Brett Vale @ 1.44 Lose
7.35 Kilb - All Rise @ 3.1 (non runner)

Tom Segal (Pricewise)
1.45 York - Classic Vintage @ 7.2 Lose
3.25 York - Equiano @ 32 to win Lose and 8.4 to place Lose

All €2 singles

Bank €63.49

Boxfresh

Pricewise Extra
3.50 Sandown - Macdillon 9.6
4.45 Newton Abbot - Noble Action 9

Wayne Bailey
5.15 Bath - Soccer 3.1

Tom Segal (Pricewise)
2.55 Chester - Sabotage 4.7
3.15 Sandown - Hillview Boy 12.5 to win & 3.65 to place
3.15 Sandown - Almiqdaad 16.5 to win & 4.5 to place

All €2 singles

Bank €48.39

I might not make it to the end of the month at this rate!

mike65

Its got to turn round at some point!

soundsham

wb b sides 3 for 4 today incl 5/1 11/4 and 4/6
maybe should be using these 2

edit: make it 4 from 5 another at 11/4

wb

Cheers. To be perfectly honest, I needed a couple of nice prices as the B Sides were getting dangerously close to going back in the red as you can see:

soundsham

could have done with it myself burst my bank on tiger last week ....meh
starting again today with a few horses incl your a bet
but really banking on cork footballers tomorrow to get the show back on the road

gl wb
and enjoy the hols

argosy2006

Boxfresh wrote: »

argosy, you should just consider that 1500 lost for now and only gamble with what your comfortable with. Increasing your bets to hundreds was a bad idea and your only digging a bigger hole for yourself.

you were right i shouldnt have chased it , i now lost 2500 this week, thought bad run would turn but it kept on coming,
so its either put 500 on de next one or quit while i,m behind

wb

argosy2006 wrote: »

its either put 500 on de next one or quit while i,m behind

NAP!

Boxfresh

Pricewise Extra
3.50 Sandown - Macdillon 9.6
4.45 Newton Abbot - Noble Action 9

Wayne Bailey
5.15 Bath - Soccer 3.1

Tom Segal (Pricewise)
2.55 Chester - Sabotage 4.7 3rd
3.15 Sandown - Hillview Boy 12.5 to win & 3.65 to place
3.15 Sandown - Almiqdaad 16.5 to win & 4.5 to place

All €2 singles

Not one winner today

Bank €48.39

argosy2006

wb wrote: »

NAP!

Yea i have no idea what NAP means ,, i must look that up, i see that word mentioned alot in horse racing
but come on, are u telling me i will never hit a winner, that pricewise extra will never win again? to me thats crazy,\
maybe tomorrow is my day, i only bet on tips posted

wb

As far as I know, NAP comes from the card game called Napoleon and it's called a NAP when you go all in.

In racing, your NAP is your best bet of the day (in other words, the horse you'd go all-in on).

Pricewise will get another few winners for sure - However, it's based on the 'value' principle and looks for outsiders. Therefore, the win rate is low and it has long losing runs. I'd never ever recommend loss-chasing, but certainly not on horses with low win rates. The idea is that when you hit the nice big value winner, you will get plenty back. But this type of betting always involves long losing runs.

Pricewise needs to be followed with sensible stakes and only use a very small percentage of your bank so you don't run out of bread during the inevitable long losing runs.

Boxfresh

Pricewise Extra
2.20 Muss - Morocchius 8.6

Wayne Bailey
2.50 Muss - Jozafeen 2.48

Bank 44.39

Boxfresh

Pricewise Extra
2.20 Muss - Morocchius 8.6 Win €16.34

Wayne Bailey
2.50 Muss - Jozafeen 2.48 2nd

Bank €60.73

soundsham

soundsham wrote: »

could have done with it myself burst my bank on tiger last week ....meh
starting again today with a few horses incl your a bet
but really banking on cork footballers tomorrow to get the show back on the road

gl wb
and enjoy the hols

show back on the road big time
cork win @ 2.6
cork ht-ft @ 4.1

get in there ton on both

argosy2006

congrats!!
good to see someone winning

Boxfresh

Pricewise Extra
4.40 Kempton - Becausewecan 4.6

Wayne Bailey
On holidays 100/1

Bank €58.73

Noland

Doesnt make much sense to me what your doing in all fairness.

Whats the timeframe, target? if you have none then its pointless in the long term.

You need to set a bank okay thats done.

Realistic target - 50 points into 150-250 etc.

Win,place,dutch bets and once your winning increase stakes to gain max profits, few loses then reduce stakes to limit losses.

Wayne has good strike rate but 2 euro on will limit your return plus not to advised stake.

Segal will get a big priced winner here and there but before that time your 2 euros will run down slowly, so you may probably level out.

I can guarantee you i will make your 100 quid into 250 by selective betting -

Hows about that?
thats what you should be aiming for

Boxfresh

It's all a bit of fun really, nothing too serious. I just want to see what sort of profit/loss that can be made by using the combination of these two tipsters which are followed by many people on this forum. I'm using betfair prices and their minimum bet of €2.

Noland wrote: »

I can guarantee you i will make your 100 quid into 250 by selective betting -

Hows about that?
thats what you should be aiming for

That's sounds good. Why don't you start a new thread with a starting bank of €100 with your selective betting and see how you get on over the course of a month or two. Prove it.

Noland

Okay, its all selective betting -

Thread started - Noland bets

Hopefully you will follow with interest - no timeframe as the target is to turn 100 (ten points) into 250 (25 points)

Boxfresh

Noland wrote: »

Okay, its all selective betting -

Thread started - Noland bets

Hopefully you will follow with interest - no timeframe as the target is to turn 100 (ten points) into 250 (25 points)

Well if someone comes on to a betting forum saying "I can ~guarantee~ you I can make you money". I'm sure you'll have plenty of interest. Guarantee is a strong word to be using when your gambling.

abouttobebanned

I've seen hundreds of these threads come and go on forums all over the internet. 95% of the thread starters get bored after a few losses and the threads descend into oblivion.

Gamblers, in essence, are deluded people. They know that what they're doing, in the long run, can't possible succeed, but they do it anyway.

Boxfresh

Pricewise Extra
4.30 Southwell - Spring Quartet @ 3.8

Wayne Bailey
On holidays

Bank €56.73

argosy2006

what time is on holidays running '',

argosy2006

Noland wrote: »

Okay, its all selective betting -

Thread started - Noland bets

Hopefully you will follow with interest - no timeframe as the target is to turn 100 (ten points) into 250 (25 points)

cant find nolan bets,, got link?

mike65

LOL, Wayne is on holidays!

Boxfresh

On holiday is a fine horse, she's running at 2.30. It's 50/1 which is a bit of a turnaround for wayne. I've got €100 ew on her. Giddy Up!

allthedoyles

This webssite has the best tips I've seen so far. Indeeed few days ago , they tipped every single winner in Cork racecourse.

http://www.gg.com/tips/

NabyLadistheman

allthedoyles wrote: »

This webssite has the best tips I've seen so far. Indeeed few days ago , they tipped every single winner in Cork racecourse.

http://www.gg.com/tips/

great for picking favourites

mike65

Whoever picks the Sandown races seems to know his stuff.

argosy2006

torresistheman wrote: »

great for picking favourites

i know that website too,, but some days they have very lil winners out of all the race meetings,, and yea there very short odds,they only pick favourites mostly, not thats there anything wrong with backing a favourite,but yea its good site, layed out well,
yeps they picked all the winners for cork on sunday .

Boxfresh

Pricewise Extra
4.30 Southwell - Spring Quartet @ 3.8 2nd

Bank €56.73

argosy2006

Realt Na Mara (IRE) 17:20 Catterick tomorrow, worth a look, previous PW-E tip and in good form, won last two,
is it possible it could win 3 in a row?

Boxfresh

That name looks familiar alright, might be worth a look.

Noland

If admin doesnt reckon its spam then see below, the site is free to me so the tips are free to anyone it doesnt cost me anything but makes money for me through advertising and sales of my write ups etc.

already up online but for this case we wil start fresh with the 100 euro for boxfresh - currently checking the races on Saturday as a decent card and entry for the Celebration mile although i just might have one lined up for the March stakes.

then site can be found at Nolandbets

Aboutobebanned, i wont be going anywhere until i make the level i advised i would, i currently write racing articles and write ups for local newspapers, and also write featured selections for paddy power betting blog plus numerous forums and websites.

sure watch with interest you might just learn something

base individual

Noland wrote: »

If admin doesnt reckon its spam then see below, the site is free to me so the tips are free to anyone it doesnt cost me anything but makes money for me through advertising and sales of my write ups etc.

already up online but for this case we wil start fresh with the 100 euro for boxfresh - currently checking the races on Saturday as a decent card and entry for the Celebration mile although i just might have one lined up for the March stakes.

then site can be found at Nolandbets

Aboutobebanned, i wont be going anywhere until i make the level i advised i would, i currently write racing articles and write ups for local newspapers, and also write featured selections for paddy power betting blog plus numerous forums and websites.

sure watch with interest you might just learn something

Thanks for the link. Feel like explaining what dutching methods are?