Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 05-12-2016 08:20AM

Monday, 5 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, moderate southeast winds 30-50 km/hr, and patchy drizzle near some coasts. Highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, some light rain on outer portions of west coast, mild with southerly breezes, lows 4-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Occasional rain mainly confined to west coast, highs 10-12 C, southerly breezes 40-60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, occasional light rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C. Moderate south to southwest winds, 50-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Rain may become somewhat heavier in west and later in other regions, southerly winds 50-70 km/hr and highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather mild and unsettled through next weekend, then a more variable and possibly stormy (at times) interval with the risk of strong winds, temperatures falling back to more average values of 5-8 C.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and cold (3 deg) with a strong westerly wind, and overnight there have been reports of scattered flurries with heavier snow in the local mountains. Colder air is spreading to many parts of central and eastern North America as well, in advance of what looks like a very cold outbreak later this week.

M.T. Cranium · 06-12-2016 08:21AM

Tuesday, 6 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Overcast, mild, rain heavier near Atlantic coast (about 15 mm there, only 3-7 mm eastern counties). Highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Foggy, mild, a little more rain in some places, lows 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy, mostly cloudy, light rain at times, highs near 11 C. Winds southwest 40-60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild. Intermittent light rain near Atlantic coasts, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain at times, mild. Highs near 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, somewhat cooler, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing, highs near 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy at times early next week, highs near 10 C, and more rain is likely, followed by a colder and drying trend past mid-month. At this point, the degree of cooling appears moderate and temperatures will likely settle around 5-7 C with light frosts returning to the picture.

My local weather on Monday featured a heavy wet snowfall of about 8-10 cms with more on local hills, temperatures steady about 0 to 2 C, but with clearing skies tonight we're expecting lows near -2 C and what's left of this snow turning partly to ice. Very cold in western Canada in general, heavy snow falling across the eastern prairies and parts of North Dakota. This colder air is heading for the east coast by about Thursday after some rain turning to sleet there today and Wednesday.

M.T. Cranium · 07-12-2016 08:35AM

Wednesday, 7 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Very mild, temperatures likely to remain steady 12-15 C then fall off slightly during the afternoon after passage of a weak front with an interval of rain, moderate south to southwest winds 50-70 km/hr at times. About 5 mm of rain in some places.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, fog patches. Lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Some morning sunny or at least brighter intervals, then mostly cloudy, mild. Intermittent light rain near Atlantic coasts by late in the day, with highs near 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain at times, mild. Lows 5-9 C and highs near 12 C. Gusty southwest winds especially for northwest coastal regions where gusts to 90 km/hr are possible.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy across northern counties, with some morning showery rain in south and southeast coastal counties, generally somewhat cooler, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing, highs near 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy at times early next week, highs 10-12 C, with more rain likely, followed by a colder and drying trend past mid-month. At this point, the degree of cooling appears moderate and temperatures will likely settle around 5-7 C with light frosts returning to the picture. Models are somewhat scattered on details, higher pressure seems to be a theme but it could build from the central Atlantic or from central Europe depending on whether large-scale patterns stay similar or possibly begin to shift west (retrograde motion) -- I think the chances are fairly good that the Christmas holiday period will be somewhat colder than average with the chance of some kind of stronger disturbance around the 27th to 29th. No very definite signs about Christmas eve or day snowfall potential yet, so for the time being will suggest not very likely but possible in a few northern areas.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and cold most of the day, the snow from Monday remained on the ground and side roads and pavements were icy, and highs were about -1 C. It looks as though we will have a heavy snowfall here on Thursday night and Friday morning, speculation is 10-20 cms.

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2016 08:37AM

Thursday, 8 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain soon clearing the east coast, then a partly cloudy and mild day with increasing cloud by late afternoon in western counties, some rain by evening there. Highs 11-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, a few intervals of rain, mild, lows 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, very mild, rain (5-15 mm), winds southwest 40-70 km/hr. Highs 11-14 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, somewhat cooler, isolated showers. Lows 4-7 C and highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, mild, lows 3-6 C and highs 10-13 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue mild with occasional rain, possibly an interval of stronger southwest winds (more likely for the north). Lows 7-10 C and highs 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat cooler by mid-week, highs generally 6-9 C but could briefly reach 10-12 C as lows pass to north, occasional rain to the weekend of 17th-18th. A more variable and sometimes colder pattern seems likely to follow that in the lead up to Christmas. The chances for any snow around the holiday seem at least as good as average if not a bit better seeing the trend.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and quite cold, snow and ice have remained in place, and highs were only about -1 C. Overnight temperatures are ranging from -5 C in the city to -10 C in nearby rural areas. And there's more snow on the way here Thursday night. Meanwhile, blizzard conditions have closed roads in North Dakota, Manitoba, northern Minnesota and northwestern Ontario. Behind that is a frigid arctic air mass with temperatures near -30 C in parts of Alberta and northern Saskatchewan. That frigid air is heading for the eastern U.S. over the weekend, and snow will follow for the Midwest. Heavy lake effect snow squalls will develop today and tomorrow in the Great Lakes region.

M.T. Cranium · 09-12-2016 08:28AM

Friday, 9 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mild and increasingly windy with a few intervals of light rain, followed by partly cloudy skies moving into western counties before dark. Highs 12-15 C. Winds southwest 50-70 km/hr but with stronger gusts to 90 km/hr around mid-day in exposed coastal areas.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing and a bit cooler, lows 4-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers most likely in northwest, and moderate westerly breezes 40-60 km/hr. Highs 9-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain may edge into western counties by late in the day, morning lows 2-5 C with patchy frost, and afternoon highs turning milder again with highs 11-14 C.

MONDAY ... Intervals of rain (10-15 mm on average), moderate southerly winds of about 60-80 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain, drizzle, fog, turning somewhat cooler in west by late afternoon, temperatures steady 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy, colder, temperatures 4-7 C with variable cloud and passing showers.

THURSDAY ... Another milder interval with rain, highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder around Friday 16th with a generally colder trend although details remain very sketchy -- some signs of a highly variable period in a fast westerly flow, but other models are still trying to establish a European high closer to Britain and Ireland that could send its own brand of chill similar to the late November setup (although nothing that strong is shown yet). With an extremely cold pattern certain to develop over North America, the jet stream is bound to be energized and I suspect that forecast models will be scrambling to adjust to the details of whatever storms develop off the east coast of the U.S. as a result.

My local weather continues very cold, snow is on the doorstep after a clear day with temperatures near -1 C. Strong "outflow" winds are going to keep any weak push of milder air off to the south and 10-20 cms of snow seems likely by this time tomorrow. Extreme cold covers almost all of Canada and the northern third of the U.S., and once this Pacific storm moves inland over the weekend, a strong low will form in the central plains states and move to New England, creating a snowstorm across the Great Lakes and inland northeast. Even colder air will move south behind that, anyone travelling to the eastern U.S. or Canada in the next week or so should expect temperatures well below average and far below last year's balmy Christmas (it was near 20 C then, likely to hit -15 C in the same places this week).

M.T. Cranium · 10-12-2016 08:27AM

Saturday, 10 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

Mild until about Wednesday, then possibly turning colder; two of three major models show a return to the late November high pressure setup, but a third shows variable and windy conditions in the days leading up to Christmas

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, just a few isolated showers mainly near the northwest coasts, winds westerly 40-60 km/hr. Highs 9-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, rather cold with isolated patchy frost, lows 1-4 C.

SUNDAY ... A few sunny intervals, increasing cloud by afternoon, highs 8-10 C east and 10-13 C west. Rain by evening in Atlantic coastal counties.

MONDAY ... Some rain likely, mild with southerly winds 50-70 km/hr. Lows 4-7 C and highs 10-13 C.

TUESDAY ... A few showers or intervals of light rain, lows 3-6 C and highs 9-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain ending, breezy, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... As mentioned in our (rare) headline, two of the three models that I regularly consult are showing the Azores high transferring rapidly to beef up a weak European high somewhere in the vicinity of Britain and France; this would gradually create a return to colder weather at least at night, and for some places in the daytime hours, with inversion conditions and fog. But a third model is holding to the fast westerly train of disturbances. It also turns colder at times but would be somewhat milder than the high pressure scenario. Which is right? Maybe neither -- when these models go off on two separate paths like this, reality can sometimes be a third, unforeseen outcome, such as a cold northerly. I do suspect that the high pressure outcome is more likely, in part because the most similar autumn I could find on the charts had that same sequence in December.

So rather than a forecast as we usually place in the outlook section, I will have to go with probability, and say that there is perhaps a 50-50 chance of the high developing (it will also have to be close enough to Ireland to clamp down an inversion, otherwise, we just see a change from mild/showery to mild/dry). The chance of a continued mild and unsettled pattern is perhaps 30 per cent, and the other 20 per cent would be one of those wild card outcomes that would probably start to show up on the charts soon. Why this uncertainty? It's not that unusual at eight to ten days, part of the problem is the focus on the approaching holiday period making our outlook forecast more relevant to more people than usual. But also, the atmosphere sometimes locks into patterns that seem easier for the models to run for a week or two; when three or four models all show the same outcome, quite often we have a high degree of confidence in that shared outlook. But this divergence seems to happen maybe three or four times a year on this sort of scale.

Oddly, the models are very much in agreement on what happens over North America in the same time frame; cold outbreaks of massive arctic high pressure from Alaska and the Yukon all the way southeast to the eastern U.S. will continue with snow events from time to time (rain in the Gulf coast states). My local weather on Friday eventually delivered most of the expected snow, and it continues to fall albeit rather sleety and foggy at -1 C. The roads have been a bit of a challenge all day even though plenty of road treatment was done before and during the event (storm might be too strong a word, more of a 24-hour nuisance snow but in a hilly city full of new drivers, that's more than enough for chaos). Extreme cold continues in other parts of western Canada, currently near -30 C in much of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Our snowfall event will feed into a developing low near Denver over the weekend and that will drop 15-25 cms of snow in parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Monday.

M.T. Cranium · 11-12-2016 08:29AM

Sunday, 11 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Isolated frost in west Munster should clear rapidly, as the day begins with widespread sunny intervals, increasing cloud by afternoon, with highs 8-10 C east and 10-13 C west. Rain will edge onto land by evening in Atlantic coastal counties.

TONIGHT ... Intermittent light rain mostly over western counties, lows 4-7 C.

MONDAY ... Some rain likely, mild with southerly winds 50-70 km/hr. Lows 4-7 C and highs 10-13 C. Rain continuing overnight in the east, amounts by Tuesday morning about 10-15 mm.

TUESDAY ... There will be a break between fronts with some sunny spells developing, followed by a few showers or intervals of light rain, lows 3-6 C and highs 9-11 C. This rain will also persist through most of the night in the east.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain ending, breezy, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Overcast, light rain at times, highs 7 to 10 C, moderate southerly winds, fog likely. This frontal system has the potential to become strong but seems to be trying to establish itself just about when high pressure to the southwest begins to link up with European high pressure; the result is that it won't be drawing in much mild air compared to the previous few systems.

OUTLOOK ... The chances of a cool or possibly cold dry spell have increased; yesterday I mentioned that two out of three models liked the high pressure (and the scented hair spray) but now they all like it and only details on timing and intensity remain as differences, so it would appear that the days leading up to Christmas may be settled, rather cold especially inland, with the possibility of frost and fog returning to the weather picture. It may not be as marked a cold spell as we saw in late November but with nights even longer now, lows could easily reach about -3 C in this sort of setup, days would vary from about 3 C inland under low cloud or fog, to 8 C near some coasts where it might be pleasantly sunny.

This is still not quite a "done deal" so stay tuned; also, Christmas is still two weeks away and this spell may be breaking down by then. I think there would be a good chance of windy and possibly stormy conditions developing a few days after Christmas so the entire holiday week may not be settled.

My local weather on Saturday saw wet snow turning to light rain and drizzle, but the snow continued on nearby hills and further inland where they now have almost 30 cms on the ground. Here, the previous 15 cms remains, as temperatures only struggled up to about 1 or 2 deg. The severe cold continues inland all the way east to Quebec now, while a storm develops later today over Colorado bringing heavy snow and possible blizzard conditions to the central plains states, somewhat further south than last week's storm across North Dakota. This will extend the snow pack south across most of Iowa, Nebraska and northern Illinois. Heavy lake effect snow will ease as winds go calm ahead of this developing storm. This low will drag along some heavy rain for parts of the mid-Atlantic states that could turn to sleet and freezing rain over higher inland valleys. That mixture will then show up around New York City and Boston by late Monday (probably all rain in the cities but mixtures in the regions nearby).

M.T. Cranium · 12-12-2016 08:08AM

Monday, 12 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain will be followed by periods of heavier rain moving across the country by afternoon into the evening for eastern counties. Highs 10-12 C. Some fog is likely to develop during the rain.

TONIGHT ... Rain ending in western counties but continuing in the east, total amounts about 15 mm. Lows 6-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning sunny intervals (once the eastern rain clears) and afternoon cloud, further rain will develop late in the day and overnight. Highs about 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain to showers, partly cloudy later in the day, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 or 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain at times (5-10 mm), gusty south winds developing, lows about 5 C and highs 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and colder, passing showers more frequent in west, winds westerly 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradually becoming more settled, temperatures will likely remain near mid-December normal values in west and north, but could be somewhat on the cold side at times in the east and south which will be closer to high pressure over Britain next weekend and into the week before Christmas. This settled pattern may break down into showery frontal passages and more of a northerly flow near Christmas which may mean a touch of snow possible on northern hills; current indications are for temperatures around 6-8 C for most of the country in the holiday period but 4-6 C in the north.

My local weather was rather horrible (again) with a very cold drenching rain that sometimes mixed with ice pellets; heavy snow fell not far away either at higher elevations or further inland. Heavy snow also fell across the midwest U.S. into the lower Great Lakes region. An intense cold wave is developing and will sweep south during the next few days to cover most of North America.

M.T. Cranium · 13-12-2016 08:19AM

Tuesday, 13 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain clearing from east this morning then partly to mostly cloudy, further showers developing, heavier rain by late in the day, highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain (10-15 mm) and fog developing, turning rather cold in western counties after midnight, lows 3-7 C west, 7-9 C east. Full moon at 00:06 (just after midnight) will likely not be visible except perhaps towards morning in west.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, passing showers, cool. Highs 7-9 C at best, could be held to 5-7 C in parts of north.

THURSDAY ... Rather cold to start, lows 0-3 C east, 3-6 C west, then increasing cloud but bright intervals during the morning in east, rain gradually spreading into west by afternoon, moderate southerly winds and highs about 7-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy and rather cold, morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy, some local frosts more widespread in south and central counties, lows -2 to +3 C , highs 6-10 C, mildest in north and west.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The settled spell may last to about Tuesday 20th then it could turn rather windy with showers and gusty southwest winds just before Christmas, then possibly turning colder around Christmas Eve. Temperatures will probably peak at around 9 or 10 C around the 23rd before turning colder again.

My local weather featured some heavy wet snow in the early morning hours, with about 10 cm added to the 15 cm of partially frozen slushy snow already on the ground, highs around +1 C, and then skies slowly cleared as we get further into an advancing cold air mass that is spreading out in all directions from a base in western Canada.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2016 08:23AM

Wednesday, 14 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will continue at least through the morning in most of Leinster and east Ulster, and will then taper off to drizzle during the afternoon. Further west, partial clearance with sunny breaks more frequent near Atlantic coasts, highs for most 8 or 9 C. About 10-15 mm further rain is possible in south Leinster.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, sharp frost developing, lows -3 to +2 C. Foggy at times especially in eastern valleys after the late ending rain leaves ground saturated. Freezing fog and black ice problems may develop before the morning; watch for alerts.

THURSDAY ... Increasing high cloud will dim any sunshine during the morning, rain will develop across western counties during the afternoon, and rain will then continue most of the night in all regions (10-15 mm). Highs 7-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, colder, passing showers more frequent near northwest coasts. Lows 1-3 C and highs 7-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, some heavy frost and fog likely inland south and east, lows there -4 to -1 C, further west and north lows -2 to +3 C, patchy frost; then some sunshine could develop once low cloud or fog dissipate, highs will range from 5 to 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Frosty to start, some hazy sunshine later, a bit milder especially in Connacht and Ulster, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, light rain at times, lows 1-3 C and highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Becoming more unsettled towards mid-week, and possibly windy or even stormy around 23rd or 24th, then turning colder ... some guidance suggests that it will be quite wintry by Christmas Eve and Day, but we'll wait and see if these charts continue to appear before getting too definite about how cold, for now would expect a peak of about 10 C around 23rd and then falling to about 3-7 C during the holidays. If it got a little colder than that, snow showers might be in the mix. The wind could peak around 100 km/hr in gusts by about 23rd or 24th; here again, there is some potential for even stronger winds.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny, very cold to start (about -5 C) and not much warmer at mid-day (-2 C) as all the recent snow remains frozen and in place. Unlike most Canadian cities, the Vancouver philosophy on snow clearance is basically to wait for a thaw, so side streets are icy and some sidewalks are also, but most people have cleared them by now, so getting around is a bit treacherous for the elderly. The more severe cold continues inland all the way to the east coast now, and a major storm will develop by about Friday over the central Rockies, moving to the lower Great Lakes with heavy snow and freezing rain bands this coming weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2016 08:41AM

Thursday, 15 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some brighter intervals this morning in east, rain spreading across the west will eventually cover eastern counties by mid-afternoon. Rain may become heavy at times especially in south-central counties where 20 mm could fall. Rather gusty southeast winds 50-70 km/hr will make the day feel colder than the actual highs of 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, drizzle and fog, slowly clearing near Atlantic coasts towards dawn but rain continuing over the east, some local flooding of roads in east Munster and south Leinster possible as 15-25 mm falls there. Dense fog may become a problem towards morning. Lows 5-7 C east, 2-5 C west (patchy frost could develop if any clearing takes place in Clare, Galway and Mayo).

FRIDAY ... Rain ending across the east, partly cloudy elsewhere from early morning, and clearing across the east by mid-day, cooler with highs 6-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning frost and fog widespread in the inland south and east, with lows -4 to -1 C there. Lows -2 to +3 C further north and west. Hazy sunshine at times during the day with some lingering fog or low cloud possible inland southeast, highs there may be held down to 4-7 C but will reach 7-10 C elsewhere.

SUNDAY ... Scattered light frosts, fog patches, followed by hazy sunshine. Lows about -3 C and highs 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, a little milder, some light rain in northwest. Highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY currently look rather breezy and cool with passing showers, highs near 8 C, nights generally frost-free but chilly. Winds southwest about 50-80 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Windy, unsettled towards Christmas Eve, with the risk of very strong winds developing around the 24th (stay tuned as models are adjusting). Temperatures near normal so probably a bit too mild for any widespread snow although wintry showers will be possible on northern hills. The best guess for Christmas Day at this point would be windy, occasional showers, temperatures around 6 or 7 C.

My local weather remains clear and very cold, the morning lows near -10 C and afternoon highs at or below -3 C. No melting yet of the largely frozen 10-15 cm snowpack (which increases to 40 cm in the nearby Fraser valley). Deep cold has swept over the Great Lakes setting off some locally intense squalls, but many places outside the snow belts are dry and even sunny. This colder air is moving into the northeast states but will be swept back out by the approaching storm from the Rockies, set to drop 15-30 cms of snow in the Midwest and lower Great Lakes on the weekend. While that happens, temperatures will briefly spike at 10-15 C on the east coast before falling back below freezing with light snow possible in New York and Washington DC around Monday.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2016 08:41AM

Thursday, 15 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some brighter intervals this morning in east, rain spreading across the west will eventually cover eastern counties by mid-afternoon. Rain may become heavy at times especially in south-central counties where 20 mm could fall. Rather gusty southeast winds 50-70 km/hr will make the day feel colder than the actual highs of 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, drizzle and fog, slowly clearing near Atlantic coasts towards dawn but rain continuing over the east, some local flooding of roads in east Munster and south Leinster possible as 15-25 mm falls there. Dense fog may become a problem towards morning. Lows 5-7 C east, 2-5 C west (patchy frost could develop if any clearing takes place in Clare, Galway and Mayo).

FRIDAY ... Rain ending across the east, partly cloudy elsewhere from early morning, and clearing across the east by mid-day, cooler with highs 6-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning frost and fog widespread in the inland south and east, with lows -4 to -1 C there. Lows -2 to +3 C further north and west. Hazy sunshine at times during the day with some lingering fog or low cloud possible inland southeast, highs there may be held down to 4-7 C but will reach 7-10 C elsewhere.

SUNDAY ... Scattered light frosts, fog patches, followed by hazy sunshine. Lows about -3 C and highs 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, a little milder, some light rain in northwest. Highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY currently look rather breezy and cool with passing showers, highs near 8 C, nights generally frost-free but chilly. Winds southwest about 50-80 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Windy, unsettled towards Christmas Eve, with the risk of very strong winds developing around the 24th (stay tuned as models are adjusting). Temperatures near normal so probably a bit too mild for any widespread snow although wintry showers will be possible on northern hills. The best guess for Christmas Day at this point would be windy, occasional showers, temperatures around 6 or 7 C.

My local weather remains clear and very cold, the morning lows near -10 C and afternoon highs at or below -3 C. No melting yet of the largely frozen 10-15 cm snowpack (which increases to 40 cm in the nearby Fraser valley). Deep cold has swept over the Great Lakes setting off some locally intense squalls, but many places outside the snow belts are dry and even sunny. This colder air is moving into the northeast states but will be swept back out by the approaching storm from the Rockies, set to drop 15-30 cms of snow in the Midwest and lower Great Lakes on the weekend. While that happens, temperatures will briefly spike at 10-15 C on the east coast before falling back below freezing with light snow possible in New York and Washington DC around Monday.

M.T. Cranium · 16-12-2016 08:26AM

Friday, 16 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain ending this morning in Leinster and east Ulster, partly cloudy by afternoon, highs 8-10 C. Sunny intervals all day further west, isolated showers in northwest, cool, highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cold. A sharp frost is likely in most inland areas, lows will reach -4 to -1 C. Some fog patches may form and untreated roads will be icy. Somewhat milder near Atlantic coast and in parts of Ulster, lows -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Lingering frost inland south and east, hazy sunshine developing, highs 5-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning frosts, daytime sunny intervals, lows -4 to +1 C, highs 6-10 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Some light rain will develop on Atlantic coasts.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will be breezy and somewhat unsettled with near normal temperatures, highs 7-10 C, although a heavier rainfall may develop late Tuesday with a peak in temperatures near 11-12 C and strong wind gusts possible (southwest 50-80 km/hr).

FRIDAY and (Christmas Eve) SATURDAY 24th will bring the risk of strong to severe wind gusts, details yet to be confirmed but all guidance has something like this taking place with peak wind gusts in Connacht and west Ulster of 110 km/hr, watch for updates. Windy and cold with squally showers or mixed wintry showers on higher terrain during this period, temperatures around 6-7 C at lower elevations, and around 3-5 C on higher ground.

OUTLOOK for CHRISTMAS and 26th DECEMBER ... Windy, unsettled, showers that may contain some hail or (on higher ground) snow, temperatures rather cold in the 3-6 C range, strong westerly winds.

It may then turn a bit milder although staying windy and possibly stormy at times in the week between Christmas and New Years.

My local weather on Thursday remained clear and cold, lows near -10 C and highs near -2 C. This is set to continue a few more days before another snowfall turns to rain around Monday. Meanwhile a snowstorm is developing for the Midwest U.S. states, with low pressure over Colorado tonight heading for Missouri and Ohio. This will be the disturbance passing north of Ireland on Tuesday 20th. Some parts of Michigan could see 50 cms of snow from this storm.

M.T. Cranium · 17-12-2016 08:57AM

Saturday, 17 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine except where fog lingers in parts of the inland southeast, frost in some parts of east and south slowly dissipating; mildest in western counties where highs may reach 10 C, colder in east, some inland locations 5-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Patchy frost and fog mostly confined to southeast, increasing cloud, lows will range from -3 C inland southeast to +3 C in west and north.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, drizzle may brush some outer northwest coasts, highs 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, after scattered morning frost and fog, lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, some light rain developing, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will see blustery and rather cold weather with showers that may become wintry at times especially on higher terrain in west and north. Highs generally 5-8 C but could be held to 3-6 C on higher ground. Winds westerly and sometimes gusting to 80 km/hr.

SATURDAY (24th) will continue windy and rather cold but a spell of rain is likely as temperatures warm slightly to near 9 C.

SUNDAY (Christmas Day) looks very unsettled from this distance, with strong southwest winds and blustery showers, turning colder late in the day after temperatures steady near 10 C. By the night of 25th-26th temperatures may fall enough to permit mixing of showers to include some wintry outbreaks at least on higher terrain.

OUTLOOK calls for continued windy and unsettled conditions with somewhat colder temperatures on 26th then milder again.

My local weather remained clear and very cold, the temperature range was -10 C in the early morning to -4 C by afternoon. Snow is widespread overnight in the Midwest with very nasty freezing rain conditions in parts of Indiana and Ohio. An extreme cold warning has been posted for the Midwest and Great Lakes regions with readings of -20 to -30 C expected by Sunday and Monday. This will have less direct impacts on the northeastern states but after a mild weekend it will turn quite cold there on Monday.

M.T. Cranium · 18-12-2016 08:12AM

Sunday, 18 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Some late clearing will allow frost to return to the inland south and east, lows -3 to +1 C. Further west and north, persistent cloud and lows 3-6 C.

MONDAY ... Some sunny intervals in south and east, overcast in west and north, patchy drizzle near northwest coasts. Highs 8-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning frost and fog, some sunshine in east at first, overcast elsewhere with rain moving in from west, strengthening south to southwest winds reaching 40-60 km/hr. Lows -3 to +2 C, highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and colder with passing showers, some of them turning wintry over higher ground. Morning lows near 3 C, afternoon highs 5-8 C. Winds west-southwest at about 50-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, occasional showers, lows 1-3 C and highs 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain becoming heavier at times, 10-15 mm likely, highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY (24th) ... Windy and cold, passing showers will become wintry and snow could accumulate on some northern hills, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, temperatures steady around 3-5 C. Overnight (Christmas eve) it will stay very windy with temperatures slowly rising, any snow or sleet will change to rain and winds will become southwest 80-110 km/hr.

SUNDAY (Christmas Day 25th) ... Very windy with squally rain showers, temperatures peaking at about 10-12 C in south, 7-9 C north, about mid-day, then turning sharply colder later in the day with a return to mixed wintry showers as winds turn more to west-northwest at 80-110 km/hr. Potential for damaging wind gusts to 120 km/hr in exposed areas, as temperatures fall gradually to 4-5 C.

MONDAY (26th) ... Windy and cold with wintry showers, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures steady near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and unsettled, still rather cold on 27th then turning milder, most of the precipitation will be rain but some snow could come and go on higher terrain.

My local weather was still cold and dry on Saturday, with a high near +1 C. Snow is moving in overnight and we expect 10-15 cms before a change to rain occurs on Monday. Extreme cold is moving into most of the Midwest, Great Lakes and interior northeast states. It has also moved through the plains states and north Texas, dropping temperatures in some places from near-record highs (23-27 C) to near-record lows (-10 to -20 C). Some astounding one-hour or three-hour temperature drops have been reported. Tomorrow, I will let you know what the lowest temperature in the northern U.S. was, but I've seen some readings near -35 C in Saskatchewan heading towards North Dakota.

M.T. Cranium · 19-12-2016 08:22AM

Monday, 19 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

Several strong frontal systems will probably control the weather from Friday 23rd to about Wednesday 28th; one of these, and possibly the strongest, will arrive on Christmas Day. All of the exact details and timing are subject to change, the forecast is based on the most likely scenario but the details are less certain than the general theme of unsettled and sometimes stormy weather. It should remain fairly quiet for several days this week, giving a good opportunity to get out and about, perhaps in contrast with the peak of the holiday season.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with some brighter intervals in south and east, overcast in west and north, patchy drizzle near northwest coasts. Highs 8-11 C. Moderate south to southwest winds falling off to light this evening.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, colder with some frost and fog developing, lows -3 inland to +3 C coastal districts, some icy roads possible by morning.

TUESDAY ... Morning frost and fog, some sunshine in east at first, overcast elsewhere with rain moving in from west, strengthening south to southwest winds reaching 40-60 km/hr. Lows -3 to +3 C, highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and colder with passing showers, some of them turning wintry over higher ground. Morning lows near 3 C, afternoon highs 5-8 C. Winds west-southwest at about 50-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, occasional showers, lows 1-3 C and highs 8-10 C. Rather windy at times, heavier rain likely by evening.

FRIDAY ... Rain becoming heavier at times, 10-15 mm likely, highs near 10 C. Strong southwest winds are likely with 50-80 km/hr probable and 80-110 km/hr possible at times in west and north.

SATURDAY (24th) ... Windy and cold, passing showers will become wintry and snow could accumulate on some northern hills, winds westerly 60-90 km/hr, temperatures steady around 3-5 C. Overnight (Christmas eve) it will stay very windy with temperatures slowly rising, any snow or sleet will change to rain and winds will become southwest 80-110 km/hr.

SUNDAY (Christmas Day 25th) ... Very windy with squally rain showers, temperatures peaking at about 10-12 C in south, 7-9 C north, during the morning hours (possibly before dawn), then turning sharply colder during the day with a return to mixed wintry showers as winds turn more to west-northwest at 80-110 km/hr. Potential for damaging wind gusts to 120 km/hr in exposed areas notably Connacht, west Ulster, and parts of west Munster, as temperatures fall gradually to 4-5 C. Snow appears possible at times on higher terrain if not more widespread.

MONDAY (26th) ... Windy and cold with wintry showers, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures steady near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and unsettled, still rather cold on 27th with mixed wintry showers, then turning milder by the 28th and 29th, when most of the precipitation will be rain but some snow could come and go on higher terrain. There could be another interval of strong or damaging south to southwest winds and with the new moon this storm could include storm surge potential.

Anyone with travel plans to Europe or Britain should note that storms will be fast-moving so that timing will be similar there, intensity likely to be stronger in Scotland at times than other parts of Britain but there it will be similar to eastern Ireland. Northern France will be included at times.

My local weather on Sunday included another snowfall of about 10 cms, which has recently turned to drizzle as temperatures have edged up to about +2 C. Rain is now expected on Monday melting some but not all of the snow on the ground. Intense cold has swept across the eastern half of the continent and temperatures will be well below normal for a few days in most regions before recovering somewhat around Christmas.

M.T. Cranium · 20-12-2016 08:41AM

Tuesday, 20 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... TUESDAY 20th ... Morning frost and fog should dissipate by about ten o'clock in the east and south (inland mostly), and there could be some sunshine in parts of the east at first, but overcast elsewhere with rain moving in from west, strengthening south to southwest winds reaching 40-60 km/hr with highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, rain may be rather heavy at first, then clearing after midnight, temperatures near 6 C will then fall off to about 2 C with scattered ground frost possible. Moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr with the rain.

WEDNESDAY 21st (winter solstice at 10:44 a.m.) ... Breezy and colder with passing showers, some of them turning wintry over higher ground. Morning lows near 2 C, afternoon highs 5-8 C. Winds west-southwest at about 50-70 km/hr. Better sunshine is likely for parts of the south and east by afternoon.

THURSDAY (22nd) ... Partly cloudy, occasional showers, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8-10 C. Rather windy at times, heavier rain likely by evening.

FRIDAY (23rd) ... Rain becoming heavier at times, 10-15 mm likely, with highs near 10 C. Strong southwest winds are likely with 50-80 km/hr probable and 80-110 km/hr possible at times in west and north. Although it may become very windy around Achill, Belmullet and later Donegal, the worst of this storm should stay out in the open Atlantic where gusts to 150 km/hr are possible, so any change in details on this storm could bring stronger gusts to land; on the other hand there is some chance of this event being downgraded closer to the time. Stay tuned on this one.

SATURDAY (24th) ... Windy and cold, passing showers will become wintry and snow could accumulate on some northern hills during the morning and mid-day hours, winds westerly 60-90 km/hr, temperatures steady around 3-5 C but then rising gradually during the evening. Overnight (Christmas eve) it will stay very windy with temperatures slowly rising to 10-12 C, any snow or sleet will change to rain and winds will become southwest 80-110 km/hr.

SUNDAY (Christmas Day 25th) ... Very windy with squally rain showers, temperatures peaking at about 10-12 C, during the morning hours (possibly before dawn), then turning sharply colder during the day with a return to mixed wintry showers possible, as winds turn more to west-northwest at 80-110 km/hr. Potential for damaging wind gusts to 120 km/hr in exposed areas notably Connacht, west Ulster, and parts of west Munster, as temperatures fall gradually to 4-5 C. Snow appears possible at times on higher terrain if not more widespread. Strongest winds will probably occur when the temperatures begin to fall off around mid-day.

MONDAY (26th) ... Windy and cold with wintry showers, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures steady near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Although it will remain unsettled with further Atlantic frontal systems moving past around 27th-28th, the trend may be towards less windy and milder, then eventually high pressure may crest once again over Ireland and Britain towards New Years. Highs will generally be 8-10 C but the high may produce the usual frosts and lingering cold into the daytime for some inland areas.

While we can't put much stock in charts two weeks out, for what it's worth the early January pattern looks rather variable and near normal in temperatures but with significant cold starting to build up to the north.

My local weather on Monday turned milder and temperatures peaked at around 5 C with some sunshine breaking through; slow melting of snow and ice is ongoing and rain is moving in now, but there is still about 10 cms of snow on the ground. The very cold air mass is modifying over central and eastern regions. The coldest reading that I saw in the U.S. was -36 C in western Minnesota, and a little below -40 in parts of the Canadian subarctic during this past weekend. But now it's starting to transform to a milder zonal flow that allows Pacific air into the central and then eastern portions of southern Canada and the northern U.S.; it may stay just cold enough for more lake effect snow today but if you're heading for places like New York or Boston at Christmas you'll find it rather mild by then (8-12 C) with rain.

M.T. Cranium · 21-12-2016 08:49AM

Wednesday, 21 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... WEDNESDAY 21st (winter solstice at 10:44 a.m.) ... Breezy and colder with widespread heavy rain showers at first, then partly cloudy with passing showers, some of them thundery, and some turning wintry over higher ground. Afternoon highs 5-8 C. Winds west-southwest at about 50-70 km/hr. Better sunshine is likely for parts of the south and east by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals developing, showers more confined to north and west, with some wintry showers over higher parts of north Connacht and west Ulster. Further east, expect a slight frost inland, lows -1 to +3 C.

THURSDAY (22nd) ... Partly cloudy, occasional showers, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8-10 C. Rather windy at times, heavier rain likely by evening.

FRIDAY (23rd) ... Rain becoming heavier at times, 10-15 mm likely, with highs near 10 C. Strong southwest winds are likely with 50-80 km/hr probable and 80-110 km/hr possible at times in west and north. Although it may become very windy around Achill, Belmullet and later Donegal, the worst of this storm should stay out in the open Atlantic where gusts to 150 km/hr are possible. No real change in trend on the most recent guidance.

SATURDAY (24th) ... Windy and cold in the morning, passing showers will become wintry and snow could accumulate on some northern hills during the morning and mid-day hours, winds westerly 60-90 km/hr, temperatures steady around 3-5 C from dawn to mid-day, but then rising gradually during the afternoon and evening, reaching 10-12 C by midnight. Overnight (Christmas eve) it will stay very windy with temperatures slowly rising to 10-12 C, any snow or sleet will change to rain and winds will become southwest 80-110 km/hr.

SUNDAY (Christmas Day 25th) ... Very windy with squally rain showers, temperatures peaking at about 10-12 C, during the morning hours (possibly before dawn), some sunny intervals mid-day with scattered showers, then turning colder during the day with a return to mixed wintry showers possible by evening, as winds turn more to west-northwest at 80-110 km/hr. Potential for damaging wind gusts to 120 km/hr in exposed areas notably Connacht, west Ulster, and parts of west Munster, as temperatures fall gradually to 4-5 C. Snow appears possible at times on higher terrain if not more widespread. Strongest winds will probably occur when the temperatures begin to fall off around mid-day.

MONDAY (26th) ... Windy and colder with wintry showers, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures steady 5-8 C.

TUESDAY (27th) ... Some sunny breaks, morning frosts, then highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Quite variable after a brief dry interval after Christmas, with a few more windy days in the mix, generally near normal in temperatures with highs in the range of 7 to 11 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was milder with some sunny breaks, allowing a slow melt of snow on the ground; we still have about 5-10 cms and some ponding of melted snow but conditions are improving slowly on side streets and pavements. Further east, the sharp cold is moderating in most places and temperatures have returned to near normal values in eastern regions of North America.

M.T. Cranium · 22-12-2016 08:07AM

Thursday, 22 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... THURSDAY (22nd) ... Partly cloudy, occasional showers becoming less frequent by afternoon, with some sunny breaks developing, highs 8-10 C. Rather windy at times, southwest 40-60 km/hr, with heavier rain developing in western counties by late evening.

TONIGHT and FRIDAY (23rd) ... Rain becoming heavier at times overnight, 10-15 mm likely, with temperatures rising slowly to reach early morning highs near 10 C. Strong southwest winds are likely with 50-80 km/hr probable and 80-110 km/hr possible at times in west and north. Although it may become very windy around Achill, Belmullet and later Donegal, the worst of this storm should stay out in the open Atlantic where gusts to 150 km/hr are possible. Rain becoming more showery then partial clearing by late afternoon as winds ease slowly.

SATURDAY (24th) ... Windy and cold in the morning, passing showers will become wintry and snow could accumulate on some northern hills during the morning to about mid-day, winds westerly 60-90 km/hr, temperatures steady around 3-5 C from dawn to mid-day, but then rising gradually during the afternoon and evening, reaching 10-12 C by midnight. Overnight (Christmas eve) it will stay very windy with temperatures slowly rising to 10-12 C, and occasional rain as winds become southwest 80-110 km/hr.

SUNDAY (Christmas Day 25th) ... Very windy with a few squally rain showers, also some sunny intervals mainly in east and south, with mild temperatures peaking at about 10-12 C, during the morning hours (to about mid-day west, afternoon east), then turning somewhat colder during the afternoon and evening with a return to mixed wintry showers possible on high ground in the north by evening, as winds turn more to west-northwest at 80-110 km/hr. Potential for damaging wind gusts to 120 km/hr in exposed areas notably Connacht, west Ulster, and parts of west Munster (110 km/hr there), as temperatures fall gradually to 4-6 C. Strongest winds will probably occur when the temperatures begin to fall off around mid-day as a fast-moving cold front races east.

MONDAY (26th) ... Windy and colder with a few wintry showers during the early morning hours, then partial clearing, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr should ease considerably later in the day to northwest 30-50 km/hr, with temperatures steady 5-8 C.

TUESDAY (27th) ... Some sunny breaks, morning frosts, then highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY (28th) and THURSDAY (29th) ... Mild, dry most of the time except for some light rain in Atlantic counties, moderate southerly winds, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued rather mild and only brief showery intervals, towards New Years Eve, with temperatures around 10 C then turning a bit colder with sunshine by New Years Day.

The storms passing north of Ireland on Friday and Christmas Day may bring stronger winds to western Scotland; conditions in most of Britain will be fairly similar to the forecast above for Ireland.

My local weather continues to be cloudy and a little milder, but snow cover hangs on without enough warmth or rain to melt much of the 10 cms still on the ground, highs near 5 C, and some light rain expected later tonight here.

M.T. Cranium · 23-12-2016 07:57AM

Friday, 23 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... (Friday 23rd) ... Windy with intervals of heavy rain followed by partial clearing and blustery passing showers. Winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr for most, 80-120 km/hr for exposed parts of the northwest, followed mid-day and afternoon by westerly winds at similar strengths. About 15 mm of rain is likely. Highest temperatures this morning about 10 C, then falling to about 3-5 C by late afternoon and evening. Some of the later showers could become wintry especially on northern hills. There is also a slight chance of thunder. (the strongest portion of the storm "Barbara" will be well offshore and will affect Faeroes and possibly Shetland by tonight with gusts 120-150 km/hr in those regions).

TONIGHT ... Blustery and cold with passing showers, some wintry on higher ground. Lows 2-4 C. Winds westerly 40-70 km/hr.

SATURDAY (24th) ... Continued windy, cold at first but becoming progressively milder, some breaks in the overcast mid-day, then a band of rain likely by evening as winds back to southwest 50-80 km/hr and temperatures climb to about 11-13 C where they will likely remain overnight. The rain may be patchy and will clear before morning except for some lingering fog or mist near hills.

SUNDAY (Christmas Day 25th) ... Windy and mild to mid-day, then turning gradually colder, with winds southwest 60-100 km/hr veering to westerly with risk of a few higher gusts especially in portions of north Connacht and west Ulster. Temperatures steady 11-13 C until the cold front then dropping gradually to about 5 C by evening, some clear intervals in the mild sector then patchy rain with the fronts, persisting into the colder evening hours. (this storm will also become much more intense to the north of Ireland bringing some very strong wind gusts 130-160 km/hr to Faeroes and northern Scotland by afternoon and evening Christmas Day).

MONDAY (St Stephen's Day 26th) ... Rather windy and cold at first, some passing showers that could be wintry on hills, then a clearing trend with winds diminishing later in the day, cool but pleasant and bright with morning lows about 3 C and afternoon highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY (27th-28th) will likely be settled with some sunshine each day, some clear intervals at night promoting frost and valley fog with light southerly winds picking up near coasts and more noticeably for western counties. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather mild to New Years Eve with patchy light rain at times, highs near 10 or 11 C, then a colder trend into the first few days of the new year, models somewhat mixed on how much colder.

My local weather on Friday was dull and wet with about 10 mms of rain but at only 4 or 5 deg C the snow is rather reluctant to melt and some icy sections of side streets are becoming worse rather than better despite the rain. We likely won't get enough of a thaw to remove a lot of this frozen slush before it turns slightly colder with mixed rain and snow expected here for the next day or so.

M.T. Cranium · 24-12-2016 07:46AM

Saturday, 24 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... SATURDAY (24th) ... Continued windy, rather cold at first with a few more squally showers, but becoming progressively milder, some breaks in the overcast mid-day, then a band of rain likely by evening as winds back to southwest 50-80 km/hr and temperatures climb to about 11-13 C where they will likely remain overnight. The rain may be patchy and will clear before morning except for some lingering fog or mist near hills.

TONIGHT ... Windy and very mild, patchy light rain but becoming dry and partly cloudy at times, temperatures steady 10 to 13 C, winds southwest 60-100 km/hr.

SUNDAY (Christmas Day 25th) ... Windy and mild to mid-day, then turning gradually colder, with winds southwest 60-100 km/hr veering to westerly with risk of a few higher gusts especially in portions of north Connacht and west Ulster. Temperatures steady 11-13 C until the cold front then dropping gradually to about 5 C by evening, some clear intervals in the mild sector then patchy rain with the fronts, persisting into the colder evening hours. (this storm will also become much more intense to the north of Ireland bringing some very strong wind gusts 130-160 km/hr to Faeroes and northern Scotland by afternoon and evening Christmas Day).

MONDAY (St Stephen's Day 26th) ... Rather windy and cold at first, some passing showers that could be wintry on hills, then a clearing trend with winds diminishing later in the day, cool but pleasant and bright with morning lows about 3 C and afternoon highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY (27th-28th) will likely be settled with some sunshine each day, some clear intervals at night promoting frost and valley fog with light southerly winds picking up near coasts and more noticeably for western counties. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather mild to New Years Eve with patchy light rain at times, highs near 10 or 11 C, then a colder trend into the first two days of the new year, models somewhat mixed on how much colder but probably 4-7 C. Another mild day or two will then be followed by somewhat stronger cold outbreaks.

My local weather on Friday was cold with rain turning to sleet, fairly light amounts, and temperatures falling from about 4 C to near freezing at present. We are expecting some sunshine each of the next few days, and frosts at night, with snow cover persisting from last week.

M.T. Cranium · 25-12-2016 08:11AM

Sunday, 25 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and mild until mid-day west, afternoon east; turning gradually colder as winds shift from southwest 60-100 km/hr to westerly 70-110 km/hr. Highs 12-13 C then temperatures slowly falling to about 5 C. Patchy light rain mainly confined to the frontal passage.

TONIGHT ... A few passing showers, windy and rather cold, lows 3-6 C. Winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... (26 December, St Stephen's Day) ... Sunny intervals, showers mainly confined to north and west near hills, and dying out by afternoon. Winds rapidly decreasing across the south, and more gradually moderating in north and exposed west coast. Rather cold, highs 6-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Sharp frosts inland and some sunny intervals during the day, lows from -4 to +2 C and highs 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Frost somewhat less widespread, then increasing cloud, but dry for most, lows -3 to +3 C and highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cloudy, mild, highs 10-11 C, less chance of frost, and occasional light rain developing from Thursday to Saturday (New Years' Eve), then turning colder overnight into New Years Day with highs near 5 C. The pattern beyond that cold spell looks variable but with periodic return to colder temperatures and perhaps eventually cold enough for some wintry precipitation to be added to the mix.

My local weather on Christmas Eve was generally overcast, highs near 3 C, but with some afternoon sunny breaks, and currently clear and cold with temperatures near -2 C. A heavy snowfall is developing for the Dakotas and Manitoba later today, but it is mild and tranquil on the east coast of the U.S. with highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2016 07:18AM

Monday, 26 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Bright and colder with a brisk west to northwest wind (40-70 km/hr) that should begin to ease first in the inland south this afternoon, then in all other regions by this evening, a few more passing showers that could be wintry on hills in the north. Highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, winds becoming light, frost developing away from Atlantic coasts. Lows for most -4 to -1 C, and around 2-4 C on the west coast.

TUESDAY ... Frost and a few fog patches slowly dissipating, hazy sunshine, with some cloudy periods near west coast. Highs eventually reaching 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue similar to the Tuesday weather, in general terms, mainly dry, some cloud and some sunny intervals, generally light to moderate south to southwest winds, and a decreasing chance of frost each night as the weak Atlantic influence expands. Highs each day near 10 C or a little below inland, lows at first near -3 C then closer to +3 C by Friday.

SATURDAY (New Years' Eve) will become rather breezy with a few passing showers and a wind shift from southwest to northwest then north, introducing a considerably colder air mass for the first two days of the new year. Highs on Saturday near 10 C, readings by midnight 2-4 C and feeling colder (on the current timing, this could change as we are six days away still).

SUNDAY (New Years' Day) will be sunny with cloudy intervals, breezy and cold with highs 4-7 C. A sharp frost will follow on the second of January, then a cold and bright day for Monday 2nd.

OUTLOOK for the first week of the new year sees the first cold spell briefly relaxing back to seasonable highs near 10 C. A stronger cold outbreak is possible around the end of the first week of January, but we should recall that in late November there were charts showing similar flooding south of cold air in December that disappeared from the charts closer to the time. Second time lucky for cold fanciers? We shall see.

Meanwhile, my local weather on Christmas Day was sunny and rather cold with the high near 2 C. Snow is expected by morning, mixing with rain later on Monday. A snowstorm is moving through the Dakotas and southern Manitoba towards northwestern Ontario, milder air is moving northeast ahead of this low and highs will reach 10-15 C in most of the eastern states and even southern Ontario and Michigan today. The outlook there is rather similar to Ireland in that a quiet end to the year will be followed by stronger cold outbreaks in early January.

M.T. Cranium · 27-12-2016 08:10AM

Tuesday, 27 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few spots of rain might be noted although it appears to be evaporating before hitting the ground. This cloud has cut off frost formation but there was some patchy frost earlier so be aware of isolated black ice conditions on roads in the inland southeast until perhaps 0900h. Highs will struggle up to about 6 to 8 C in most places and could hit 10 C near some coasts. Light southerly winds will strengthen a bit near south and west coasts.

TONIGHT ... Cloud may break up enough to allow more frost to form, lows -3 to +3 with cloud more likely near Atlantic coasts.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will bring similar weather, mostly cloudy, moderate south to southwest winds, spotty light rain brushing northwest coasts at times, dry for most elsewhere, lows -1 to +4 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY (New Years' Eve) will continue cloudy and mild with a greater chance of rain at times in the north. Lows 2 to 6 C and highs 7 to 12 C. A cold front will edge south into Ulster and Connacht by midnight (the more exact New Years' Eve) bringing scattered rain showers. Winds ahead of this front will pick up to westerly 40-60 km/hr and shift rapidly to north then northeast. Temperatures will fall steadily to about 5 C after this front passes. Some wintry mixture may develop over higher parts of Ulster and north Connacht late overnight towards dawn on New Years' Day.

SUNDAY (New Years' Day, 1st Jan 2017) will see the colder air continuing to press south reaching all portions of Munster and south Leinster by mid-day. Temperatures in the north will remain close to 4 or 5 C while falling to those levels later in the south from 8 or 9 C. Drizzle or light rain may accompany the front which will have less chance of bringing high elevation snow or sleet as it reaches the south, but there still could be patchy sleet over higher parts of Leinster with snow showers feeding into parts of Ulster and Connacht on northeast winds 40-60 km/hr.

MONDAY will then see a sharp frost and some clearing with temperatures remaining quite cold, between -3 and +5 C.

OUTLOOK then becomes rather uncertain with different models depicting different outcomes, some have reloading cold spells at intervals with one or two milder days between the colder days, other guidance seems to confine the cold to the one outbreak with milder southwest winds returning. That's what happened in early December so I would not be overly surprised if that happens.

My local weather on Monday was a nasty mixture of wet snow and sleet; at my elevation of 120 metres, we had 10 cms of snow, but down the hill near sea level it was just a slight covering and sleety rain. This mixture is going to continue tonight and part of Tuesday here.

M.T. Cranium · 28-12-2016 08:15AM

Wednesday, 28 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, moderate southwest breezes developing, some sunshine could break through at times in south and east. Highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear breaks, fog or mist patches, lows 3-6 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue cloudy and rather mild with patchy light rain at times near northwest coasts, moderate southwest breezes, lows 3-7 C and highs 8-12 C. New moon occurs at 06:53 Thursday.

SATURDAY will become rather windy with rain developing, becoming more showery in the north towards midnight on New Years' Eve. Southwest winds of 50-70 km/hr will shift to northerly in the evening across Ulster and north Connacht and around midnight in south Connacht, north-central Leinster. When that happens, temperatures will drop rapidly from near 10 C (the likely high for the day) to near 5 C.

SUNDAY (New Years' Day) will be windy and cold with the windshift and temperature drop clearing the south coast by dawn. Winds will become north to northeast 40-70 km/hr in all areas, passing wintry showers may develop especially over higher parts of the north. But there should be some sunny intervals elsewhere, especially near the south coast. Morning lows 1 to 3 C and highs only 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY will continue breezy, bright and cold, with morning lows -3 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY may then turn a bit milder with light rain and highs near 10 C but this may not last too long with stronger cold fronts being indicated for mid-week and beyond. There may be about a week of cold, sometimes wintry weather with light snow possible at various times depending on wind direction and weak fronts; nothing heavy is currently indicated but a slight covering may develop in some places.

My local weather has a lot more than a slight cover, despite some sunshine in the morning we continue to deal with a sloppy mess of about 15 cm of slushy snow, a lot of standing water on busy roads and in some parking lots, and ice in the shade in quieter locations. The high was about 4 C which promoted the spread of slush. Meanwhile, the high on Tuesday was 20 C in Washington DC in the warm sector of the storm that moved through northern Ontario bringing heavy snow there. Bands of freezing rain have developed along a trailing front in parts of southern Ontario and Michigan.

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2016 08:17AM

Thursday, 29 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and rather mild, with some brighter intervals near east and southeast coasts, and some patchy light rain at times near northwest coasts, southwest breezes of 40-60 km/hr, and highs 8-12 C.
New moon occurred at 06:53 just before both Sun and Moon were rising. There was no eclipse anywhere as the Moon is currently almost 5 degrees separated from the Sun (higher in the sky at mid-day).

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy with drizzle near northwest coasts, some mist or fog, and lows 3-7 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with moderate southwest winds, mild with patchy light rain in north and west, highs near 11 C.

SATURDAY will become somewhat more windy and mild with rain developing, becoming more showery in the north towards midnight on New Years' Eve. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm are likely. Southwest winds of 50-70 km/hr will shift to northerly in the evening across Ulster and north Connacht and around midnight in south Connacht, north-central Leinster. When that happens, temperatures will drop rapidly from near 10-12 C (the likely highs for the day) to near 5 C.

SUNDAY (New Years' Day) will be windy and cold with the windshift and temperature drop clearing the south coast by dawn. Winds will become north to northeast 40-70 km/hr in all areas, passing wintry showers may develop especially over higher parts of the north. But there should be some sunny intervals elsewhere, especially near the south coast. Morning lows 1 to 3 C and highs only 4 to 7 C. Winds north to northeast 40-60 km/hr, possibility of some afternoon mixed wintry showers in bands across the coastal southeast.

MONDAY will continue breezy, bright and cold, with morning lows -3 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C. There may be isolated wintry showers in the north, winds will start out northerly and back to westerly, so north Connacht and west Ulster may be more likely to see a bit of hill snow.

TUESDAY will continue rather cold at first, but with moderating temperatures by afternoon in moderate westerly breezes, lows -4 to +1 C and highs 8-11 C. Some light rain may develop by late in the day.

OUTLOOK ... Mild weather near 10 C on Wednesday will be replaced by another rather cold spell by late Wednesday night, or during Thursday of next week. Some charts for the weekend of the 7th-8th of January look very cold with highs not much better than freezing and lows to -6 C, snow potential is only slight and confined to some streamers in north to northwest winds, so more likely for the western and northern hills.

My local weather really needs an intervention, today we had steady sleety rain and highs near 3 C, making more of a mess out of the 15 cm slushpack. Instead of that, we are about to get more snow. Temperatures are returning to normal values after a very mild spell in eastern parts of the U.S. and Canada.

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2016 08:15AM

Friday, 30 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... FRIDAY (30th December) will be cloudy with moderate southwest winds, mild with patchy light rain in north and west, highs near 11 C. Winds occasionally southwest 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, light rain at times, 3-5 mm expected, and mild with lows 6-9 C.

SATURDAY (31st December) will become somewhat more windy and mild (temperatures steady around 10-12 C) with rain developing, becoming more showery in the north towards midnight on New Years' Eve. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm are likely. Southwest winds of 50-70 km/hr will shift to northerly in the evening across Ulster and north Connacht and around midnight in south Connacht, north-central Leinster. When that happens, temperatures will drop rapidly from near 10-12 C (the likely highs for the day) to near 5 C.

SUNDAY (New Years' Day) will be windy and cold with the windshift and temperature drop clearing the south coast by dawn. Winds will become north to northeast 40-70 km/hr in all areas, passing wintry showers may develop especially over higher parts of the north. But there should be some sunny intervals elsewhere, especially near the south coast. Morning lows 1 to 3 C and highs only 4 to 7 C. Winds north to northeast 40-60 km/hr, possibility of some afternoon mixed wintry showers in bands across the coastal southeast.

MONDAY (2nd January, 2017) will continue breezy, bright and cold, with morning lows -3 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C. There may be isolated wintry showers in the north, winds will start out northerly and back to westerly, so north Connacht and west Ulster may be more likely to see a bit of hill snow.

TUESDAY will continue rather cold at first, but with moderating temperatures by afternoon in moderate westerly breezes, lows -4 to +1 C and highs 8-11 C. Some light rain may develop by late in the day.

OUTLOOK ... A brief interval of milder weather with highs near 10 C on Wednesday will be replaced by another rather cold spell by late Wednesday night, or during Thursday of next week. Some charts for the weekend of the 7th-8th of January continue to look very cold with highs not much better than freezing, with lows about -6 C and snow potential while rather slight seems to be increasing on more recent charts, largely confined to some streamers in north to northwest winds, so more likely for the western and northern hills, but with some potential for brief intervals of snow in Leinster if winds briefly turn more northeasterly. This very cold spell seems set to last about four days to Tuesday 10th with somewhat milder and settled weather to follow.

My local weather continued unpleasant with sleety rain most of the day, and highs only 2 or 3 C. With some partial clearing it has turned quite foggy at the surface. Meanwhile, a snowstorm developed over eastern New England with reports of 15 to 30 cms of snow in Maine and New Hampshire. As this low moves into Quebec, the eastern provinces of Canada will see very strong winds although mostly rain rather than snow, blowing snow may arrive near the end of the storm around New Years.

This storm is having no impact on weather in New York or Washington D.C. except to draw in some rather cold air for New Years eve, and there will also be outbreaks of lake effect snow in the cold northwest winds being drawn into the strong low.

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2016 08:15AM

Friday, 30 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... FRIDAY (30th December) will be cloudy with moderate southwest winds, mild with patchy light rain in north and west, highs near 11 C. Winds occasionally southwest 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, light rain at times, 3-5 mm expected, and mild with lows 6-9 C.

SATURDAY (31st December) will become somewhat more windy and mild (temperatures steady around 10-12 C) with rain developing, becoming more showery in the north towards midnight on New Years' Eve. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm are likely. Southwest winds of 50-70 km/hr will shift to northerly in the evening across Ulster and north Connacht and around midnight in south Connacht, north-central Leinster. When that happens, temperatures will drop rapidly from near 10-12 C (the likely highs for the day) to near 5 C.

SUNDAY (New Years' Day) will be windy and cold with the windshift and temperature drop clearing the south coast by dawn. Winds will become north to northeast 40-70 km/hr in all areas, passing wintry showers may develop especially over higher parts of the north. But there should be some sunny intervals elsewhere, especially near the south coast. Morning lows 1 to 3 C and highs only 4 to 7 C. Winds north to northeast 40-60 km/hr, possibility of some afternoon mixed wintry showers in bands across the coastal southeast.

MONDAY (2nd January, 2017) will continue breezy, bright and cold, with morning lows -3 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C. There may be isolated wintry showers in the north, winds will start out northerly and back to westerly, so north Connacht and west Ulster may be more likely to see a bit of hill snow.

TUESDAY will continue rather cold at first, but with moderating temperatures by afternoon in moderate westerly breezes, lows -4 to +1 C and highs 8-11 C. Some light rain may develop by late in the day.

OUTLOOK ... A brief interval of milder weather with highs near 10 C on Wednesday will be replaced by another rather cold spell by late Wednesday night, or during Thursday of next week. Some charts for the weekend of the 7th-8th of January continue to look very cold with highs not much better than freezing, with lows about -6 C and snow potential while rather slight seems to be increasing on more recent charts, largely confined to some streamers in north to northwest winds, so more likely for the western and northern hills, but with some potential for brief intervals of snow in Leinster if winds briefly turn more northeasterly. This very cold spell seems set to last about four days to Tuesday 10th with somewhat milder and settled weather to follow.

My local weather continued unpleasant with sleety rain most of the day, and highs only 2 or 3 C. With some partial clearing it has turned quite foggy at the surface. Meanwhile, a snowstorm developed over eastern New England with reports of 15 to 30 cms of snow in Maine and New Hampshire. As this low moves into Quebec, the eastern provinces of Canada will see very strong winds although mostly rain rather than snow, blowing snow may arrive near the end of the storm around New Years.

This storm is having no impact on weather in New York or Washington D.C. except to draw in some rather cold air for New Years eve, and there will also be outbreaks of lake effect snow in the cold northwest winds being drawn into the strong low.

M.T. Cranium · 31-12-2016 08:32AM

Saturday, 31 December, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, rain will begin early this afternoon in the north, and may become heavy for a brief time, with 5-10 mm expected. This front will accelerate south during the evening and this will reduce the amount of rain although still providing a brief interval of heavy showers. It will remain quite mild (10-12 C) until the rain ends, then turn sharply colder as winds veer rapidly from southwest 40-60 km/hr to northerly 50-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Although mostly dry with clear intervals, some wintry showers may develop in parts of Ulster and these could spread further south late in the night, but for most, the midnight conditions will be dry and very cold in a strong northerly wind of 50-70 km/hr. Temperatures of 3-5 C will feel more like --5 C. Before dawn some roads could become icy in a few parts of the inland north. Lows will reach zero to 2 C.

SUNDAY (New Years' Day) will be a bright, very cold day with isolated wintry showers most likely near southeast and northwest portions of the country in two bands of streamers. These may stay largely offshore but where they hit land there could be briefly heavy falls of sleet, hail or snow. Highs will reach about 5 C and winds north to northeast 50-80 km/hr will make that feel more like about --2 C.

MONDAY will start with a heavy frost especially inland where lows could reach as low as -6 C. The wind will continue to be rather brisk especially near coasts, and if it falls off a bit in the early morning inland it will likely pick up during the day. Partly sunny but very cold with highs near 3 C except where warmed by exposure to the warmer seas, still some chance of isolated wintry showers and winds northeast 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY will have some patchy frost to start with some low cloud, lows in a range between -5 C and +2 C. During the day it will begin to feel milder as winds slacken somewhat and turn more westerly again, with highs of 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue mostly dry if rather cloudy, and temperatures will be in a similar range, lows -3 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C. Although it may start turning colder in parts of Ulster late Thursday, the cold spell may be somewhat more aimed at Britain than Ireland.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will likely see colder temperatures and isolated mixed wintry showers in north to northeast winds. Lows about -4 C and highs 4-7 C. This spell could be considerably colder in Britain, but there is still some chance that later forecasts will return the deeper cold to Ireland too.

OUTLOOK beyond Saturday 7th is for rather cold weather to continue with possibly a deeper cold setting in, details from one model to another are a bit scattered but almost all guidance shows some days that would be near freezing in the daytime and might produce local snow streamers especially near east or south coasts. I think we will be getting a more definite handle on how cold, and how long the spell might persist, by early next week.

It's worth mentioning that a rather extensive snowstorm appears likely in eastern Europe next week when a low develops near the North Sea around Tuesday and moves to eastern Poland then towards Moscow. Anywhere north of that track could see a lot of snow, 15 to 30 cms, (including Sweden, most of Poland, northern Germany, the Baltic states, southern Finland and the western parts of Russia). That snow cover would be a factor in promoting a cold easterly flow aimed at Britain and Ireland later in the month.

My local weather was finally pleasant although the milder sunshine did not melt a lot of the snow, in fact we just have more of a slushy mess now and it could freeze up overnight. Some snow is expected here in the next day or two and then a very cold interval associated with a huge cold outbreak that is likely to cover almost all of North America by about 3rd-4th of January. That will set off an intense storm in the Great Lakes region with heavy lake effect snowfalls likely mid-week. Temperatures are likely to drop to -20 to -30 C in most of the northern tier of states and all of southern Canada away from the somewhat warmer coasts (where -10 C is expected).

Happy New Year to you and yours, I will post something on Sunday morning since the weather pattern is so active.

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2017 08:57AM

Sunday, 1st of January, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... SUNDAY (New Years' Day) will be a bright, very cold day with isolated wintry showers most likely near southeast and northwest portions of the country in two bands of streamers. There could be briefly heavy falls of sleet, hail or snow in these regions, most other places will remain dry. Highs will reach about 5 C and winds north to northeast 50-80 km/hr will make that feel more like about --2 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, sharp frost developing with lows inland about -6 to -2 C. Some coastal areas exposed to onshore northeast winds will remain a little above freezing and some wintry showers may persist especially in east Ulster, coastal Leinster and north Mayo.

MONDAY will start with a heavy frost especially inland where lows could reach as low as -6 C. The wind will continue to be rather brisk especially near coasts, and if it falls off a bit in the early morning inland it will likely pick up during the day. Partly sunny but very cold with highs near 3 C except where warmed by exposure to the warmer seas, still some chance of isolated wintry showers and winds northeast 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY will have some patchy frost to start with some low cloud, lows in a range between -5 C and +2 C. During the day it will begin to feel milder as winds slacken somewhat and turn more westerly again, with highs of 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue mostly dry if rather cloudy, and temperatures will be in a similar range, lows -3 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C. Although it may start turning colder in parts of Ulster late Thursday, the cold spell will be mostly aimed at eastern Britain rather than Ireland.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are now expected to remain close to normal January temperatures of 2-4 C overnight and 7-9 C daytime. The first of several cold spells is now being confined to the North Sea and regions further east as the strong low and snowstorm in eastern Europe pull very cold air across Scandinavia.

Beyond Saturday, the outlook is quite uncertain with some guidance suggesting that more cold air masses will form around Iceland and north of Scotland, heading south at intervals and dropping temperatures close to freezing at times. But given that the models had the Thursday to Saturday outbreak poorly handled in general, we will have to take a wait and see approach to these further alleged cold spells.

Meanwhile, as it approaches New Years Eve here, the weather is clearing after 10 cms of snow during the day and it is quite cold at -2 C.

Once again, happy new year and take care if you have to drive in any wintry precipitation in a few places later today.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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