Summer 09 is set to be a scorcher

chris2007

It's the first day of summer and we're set for a sizzler.

Weather experts say we are on course for a hot, dry, "barbecue summer" -- one of the best in years.

Scorching temperatures to rival Greece and Spain are coming our way with very little rain.

Those who can't afford a sun holiday abroad will be able to bask in sunshine rising above 30C in the comfort of their own back gardens.

Meterorologists say it's quite normal for a sunny spell to follow two summers, which brought some of the worst floods in decades.

They optimistically predict weather will be warmer and drier than average for the entire months of June, July and August.

These months are likely to see prolonged spells of hot weather with temperatures above the magic 30C mark -- something which only happened in 2008 on a single day.

There will be some rain, but the washout weather of the past two years is very unlikely, and the prospect of three soggy summers in a row is "extremely small".

cycle

The scientists say the good summer weather will be linked to a natural cycle on the other side of the world called the El-Nino Southern Oscillation.

The cycle -- which lasts from two to seven years -- alternates between El Nino years, when the Eastern Pacific is unusually warm, and La Nina years when the Eastern Pacific is cool.

The miserable summers of 2007 and 2008 coincided with a severe La Nina. However, La Nina is weakening this year and forecasts expect high pressure and drier weather across Europe.

Already the first signs of decent weather are on their way, with a forecast for a mild May Bank Holiday weekend, which will be reasonably warm, sunny and dry, as heat pushes up from the Azores.

As weather gains increasing importance for lifestyles, supermarket chains and department stores are using long-range forecasts to help to plan their stocks.

Tesco recently appointed six data experts to advise on how to turn weather information into stocks on shelves. It found, for instance, that meat sales rise three times for each 10C rise in temperature, because more people have barbecues, while beer sales rise 10pc for every 3C rise.

ManFromAtlantis

give me a cool cloudy day any day of the week.
dont like squinting/skin cancer and sweatin like a pig.

enda1

ManFromAtlantis wrote: »

give me a cool cloudy day any day of the week.
dont like squinting/skin cancer and sweatin like a pig.

Boo urns! You should paint your face white and use a black umbrella, don't ye know that's what all the cool kids do!?

Sunny weahter is amazing, makes you feel so alive and happy!

Shelllz

Bring on the sunshine! Twill help Ireland find some happiness in these recessionary times!

When is this scorcher of a summer going to commence? soon I hope!

ManFromAtlantis

enda1 wrote: »

Boo urns! You should paint your face white and use a black umbrella, don't ye know that's what all the cool kids do!?

Sunny weahter is amazing, makes you feel so alive and happy!

sunny weather makes me grumpy. six hours putting suncream on the kids. then the sun is gone. i HATE sunny hot weather.

emperors clothes, ........c'mon stand up if you hate the so called 'good' weather.

mike65

I shall hail a warm sunny summer, cheap to live during such weather.

M.T. Cranium

He lost me at "it's the first day of summer."

Danno

Hi MTC, oddly enough the Irish Education System, due to its historical ties to the Catholic Church, regard May 1st as the start of Summer. The reason being, I feel is that Saint Brigid's Day, February 1st is the start of Spring. It also has alot to do with aincent Celtic feasts such as Halloween which marks the end of the Harvest (Autumn/Fall), So again the Irish regard the 1st November as the start of Winter.

amacachi

Danno wrote: »

Hi MTC, oddly enough the Irish Education System, due to its historical ties to the Catholic Church, regard May 1st as the start of Summer. The reason being, I feel is that Saint Brigid's Day, February 1st is the start of Spring. It also has alot to do with aincent Celtic feasts such as Halloween which marks the end of the Harvest (Autumn/Fall), So again the Irish regard the 1st November as the start of Winter.

Also the 1st of August is the start of autumn apparently, good old Ireland.

How accurate do these forecasts usually be?

*shadow*

Is this a ploy to take our minds of the recession and make us think 'happy Summery thoughts'!! Im suspicious

squonk

We get this every year... long hot summer, scorchers, ice cream sales up.. blah blah blah! I really, really want to be made eat my hat here but it may be a better summer than the two previous (not hard) but I don't foresee anything spectacular tbh. As I say, really want to be proved wrong!

Sea Devils

Meh I'll believe it when I see it

Gonzo

dont believe it either, every autumn were promised the coldest winter on record and every April were promised an Africian Summer.

nacho libre

two noticeably wet summers in sucession are usually followed by a good summer.

conorlechance

heres hoping, good for me i live right beside white rock in killiney(dublin) which imo is absolutely class if you can get it relatively quiet on a nice day...not very often mind but ive been know to swim with basically nobody there in the sun.

ManFromAtlantis

nacho libre wrote: »

two noticeably wet summers in sucession are usually followed by a good summer.

meh ! i like your scientific analysis.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for that explanation, Danno, of course I had no idea ... as with most things, actually.

Which seems like a perfect introduction to my own LFR for the (real) summer, near normal (going out on a limb there).

So a bit better than either 07 or 08, but I don't foresee a really fine summer for any part of western Europe, just a more normal one than the past two.

No complicated explanations, just not seeing any dominant factors in any direction far from average, so a bit of everything all mixed up into a near normal result.

Omcd

chris2007 wrote: »

....Already the first signs of decent weather are on their way, with a forecast for a mild May Bank Holiday weekend, which will be reasonably warm, sunny and dry, as heat pushes up from the Azores.

As weather gains increasing importance for lifestyles, supermarket chains and department stores are using long-range forecasts to help to plan their stocks.

Tesco recently appointed six data experts to advise on how to turn weather information into stocks on shelves. It found, for instance, that meat sales rise three times for each 10C rise in temperature, because more people have barbecues, while beer sales rise 10pc for every 3C rise.

What ? The weather on the May bank holiday weekend was miserable ! If Tesco are banking on a barbecue summer, why hasn't the tasty barbecue seasoning they did last summer reappeared on the shelves ?

TheGreenGiant

Pestilence may be stalking the planet, and the global financial system is still teetering on the edge of collapse, but there finally came a reason today for us all to cheer up: Britain is heading for a warm and dry summer.After two successive years of wash-outs, characterized by soggy picnics, muddy pop festivals and flooded villages, the Met Office is forecasting a "barbecue summer", which will cheer thousands of people foregoing foreign holidays because of recession-hit finances and the weak pound.


Meteorologists issuing their long-range forecast for June, July and August said near or below-average rainfall this year made it unlikely there would be a repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008.
"After two disappointingly wet summers the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30C, something we hardly saw at all last year," said the chief meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum. "Last year it only got above 30C once: 30.2C in Cambridge on 28 July."


The mean temperature this summer will be 14.4C. Last year it was 14.48C, but this was due to high night-time temperatures, while the daytime temperature was below average, the Met Office said. The average UK temperature for June to August from 1971 to 2000 was 14.1C.
One in five Britons who holidayed overseas last year will stay at home this summer because of the recession, according to figures from the national tourism body, Visit Britain. This means an extra five *million holidaying in UK beauty spots and beaches.


"Britons tend to dash overseas for guaranteed sunshine during the summer," said Elliott Frisby of Visit Britain. "We are already expecting this year to be a good year for tourism in the UK, but the prospect of good weather this summer will make it even more successful."


The Met Office said the conditions behind the brighter forecast were due to warmer sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. "There are indications that throughout the summer this year the seas of the Pacific are going to warm up a bit and that leads to high pressure developing over Europe, bringing warmer, drier conditions," said a spokeswoman. "Over the last two summers we've had cool sea temperatures in the Pacific which has bought the wet weather."


Although the prediction is "odds-on for a barbecue summer" according to the forecasters, the UK can still expect some heavy downpours. There is a low risk of a third successive wet summer.
The summer of 2008 was the fifth wettest since 1914. An average of 327.3mm (nearly 13in) of rain fell in the UK between 1 June and 31 August. The average previously has been 226.9mm.
The UK experienced just 463.9 hours of sunshine up to 31 August 2008, a below-average figure that included the dullest August since records began in 1929.


The early months of summer 2007 were the wettest since records began in 1766. Between May and July, 387.6mm of rain fell across England and Wales. In June and July, there was major flooding in parts of England and Wales. Thousands of homes were devastated, with Yorkshire and Gloucestershire among the worst hit areas.
After two successive wet summers, the National Trust warned that a third miserable summer could spell disaster for a range of species including crane flies, butterflies, members of the tit family, puffins and bats. A 2008 audit by the trust showed that heavy rain during mid-May meant hard times for early summer insects, which in turn meant many blue tit and great tit nests failed. In June, coastal birds such as choughs, kittiwakes and razorbills bred late and reared few young. In July, puffin numbers on the Farne Islands were down 35% in five years.


The weather was also unkind to bats. Heavy summer rain meant there was a shortage of the insects they depend upon.
Speaking about the Met Office forecast, Matthew Oates, the trust's adviser on nature, said: "This is the most welcome news imaginable for much of the UK's wildlife, especially for warmth-loving insects such as butterflies, bees and hoverflies whose populations have really been decimated by two foul and abusive summers."

I just hope we tap into some of their sun drenched summer bbq days:P:pac:

moe_sizlak

nacho libre wrote: »

two noticeably wet summers in sucession are usually followed by a good summer.

untill climate change came along and the rule book can be torn up

*shadow*

moe_sizlak wrote: »

untill climate change came along and the rule book can be torn up

Climate change has always been around we just exacerbated the situation!!

thewing

I don't buy it..

ManFromAtlantis

i'm afraid to ask you what it is you dont buy. worms and cans.

murph01

meh..........Ireland.............summer........lots of rain and thats been optimistic :P :P

moe_sizlak

*shadow* wrote: »

Climate change has always been around we just exacerbated the situation!!

i live in rural ireland and regulary get chatting with the people who know most about weather , farmers

ask any of them who are over the age of 40 , its far far wetter now than it used to be , this year has been another disaster for farmers with constant heavy rainfall this past four weeks , the biggest challenge facing farmers going forward is the weather

*shadow*

moe_sizlak wrote: »

i live in rural ireland and regulary get chatting with the people who know most about weather , farmers

ask any of them who are over the age of 40 , its far far wetter now than it used to be , this year has been another disaster for farmers with constant heavy rainfall this past four weeks , the biggest challenge facing farmers going forward is the weather

I live in rural Ireland too:D

I know things are getting worse there is no debating that I just want people to be more aware of what exactly global warming and climate change are and untill we fully understand these concepts we are going to struggle to work together to bring about any kind of reform.

We are living now in what is known as the great ice age and it is understood that ice ages have benn occuring throughout the earths lifetime. During an ice age the earth experiences glacial (cool) periods and interglacial (warm) periods. We are living in an interglacial period. Previous to the glacial period of about 20,000 years ago the last interglacial period was bout 100,000 years ago. Also 49 warm-cold swings have been identified in the Last Great Ice age alone.

People have to realise that it is not possible to stop Climate change or global warming, these have been occuring on earth since the beggining of time however WE have worsened the situation.

Previous to human excistence, carbon on earth was stored in fossil fuels and was slowly realeased into the atmosphere over millions of years, humans however began burning these fosil fuels and this dramatically increased the levels of carbon being pumped into the atmosphere and so upset the natural carbon cycle.

moe_sizlak

*shadow* wrote: »

I live in rural Ireland too:D

I know things are getting worse there is no debating that I just want people to be more aware of what exactly global warming and climate change are and untill we fully understand these concepts we are going to struggle to work together to bring about any kind of reform.

We are living now in what is known as the great ice age and it is understood that ice ages have benn occuring throughout the earths lifetime. During an ice age the earth experiences glacial (cool) periods and interglacial (warm) periods. We are living in an interglacial period. Previous to the glacial period of about 20,000 years ago the last interglacial period was bout 100,000 years ago. Also 49 warm-cold swings have been identified in the Last Great Ice age alone.

People have to realise that it is not possible to stop Climate change or global warming, these have been occuring on earth since the beggining of time however WE have worsened the situation.

Previous to human excistence, carbon on earth was stored in fossil fuels and was slowly realeased into the atmosphere over millions of years, humans however began burning these fosil fuels and this dramatically increased the levels of carbon being pumped into the atmosphere and so upset the natural carbon cycle.

off topic i know but from talking to farmers , if the last three years are typical of the kind of weather we can expect in the future , it will destroy agriculture in this country , it cannot be overestimated what the weather is presently doing to farmers , its a disaster

do you think we will see more of this relentless rain for weeks on end , each year

mike65

Its bad alright, no decent spells to allow draining. If we are to belive the climate change people the east and south-east will be parched in summer by 2050, in teh short term ie this summer - if its gonna be good then its being kept well under wraps. Maybe it'll just turn at some point in the next month and that'll be it for rain until late Sept.

nacho libre

moe_sizlak wrote: »

i live in rural ireland and regulary get chatting with the people who know most about weather , farmers

ask any of them who are over the age of 40 , its far far wetter now than it used to be ,

ask them about the summer's of '86 and '87. i think you'll find those two Summers were almost as wet as last Summer

thewing

I remember 86 especially...miserable...

@ManFromAtlantis - I don't buy the fact it's gonna be a scorcher...having played golf in the pouring rain last night for 4 hours, I'm not impressed with Summer '09 so far...

kmick

My father in law who is nearly 70 says all the 9s 59,69,79,89,99 were scorchers and all the 8s were awful. He predicts the sun will arrive in mid-jun and stay for the summer.

I had a look here
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html
for the first of July 99,89,79 and the mean temp was around 10 degress according to the chart.