Racing Post Money Printing Thread - Mod note post 1572

mike65

Hmmm 3/1, hate backing at prices too short for e/w

argosy2006

hmmm its hard to know if 3-1 is good each way,, i know if it wins with 10 on it its 30 won,, with 5 each way its 18.75 if it wins,,but if it loses with 10 on its ten lost,, if it loses and only places with 5ew on its 3.75 won plus 5 back = 8.75 . so only 1.25 lost of your 10 ..means ur loss is less,but still a loss,,
and less of a loss is good thing in this game!

Desert Orchid

I could never back EW at 3/1. It's different if you're going through the motions of a mathematical exercise but in real betting I struggle to see the point of backing EW at a single-figure price at all. I tend only to bet EW at 20/1 or more. However, if I can get close to the true fractions in a place-only market (ie 4/1 place-only about a 16/1 shot) I'd have the full stake - sometimes double - on the place-only bet. It's far better value.

Here's the reasoning (without wishing to patronise those who know what I'm saying as it is):

If you put E10 ew on a 16/1 winner (1/4-odds), your E20 would return E220, or 10/1. 16/1 shots win a lot less often than 10% of the time (about half that in the long run), therefore the bet is bad value.

If it just places, your return is E50, or 6/4. If you backed a 16/1 shot Ew simply hoping for a place, ask yourself, 'would I back this at 6/4 just to be placed?' The answer should be a very strong 'no way, José'.

If you put your E20 on at 4/1 place-only and it wins or places your return is E100, or genuinely 4/1. I'd take this bet any day over a 16/1 ew if the best I thought it could do was to place.

argosy2006

i look at it as backing EW but not looking for just a PLACE, looking to win,but if it happens to place my loss is less,
but yea i get your point Desert,
5 ew even on 2-1 is better than 10 to win IF it fails to win,, but if it comes second i dont lose anything, if it wins i get 22.5 for win and place,,yes its less than a 10 to win which is 30,
but 5 ew is profit if it wins and no loss if it only places,
but what would i know i lost 2500 this week! and advised on here not to put 500 on de tip today,,
i know no one wanted to see me dig a bigger hole ,but i knew win had to come

Desert Orchid

5 ew on a 2/1 second (at ¼ odds the place) returns 7.50 for 10 staked so you've lost money on the bet. You've paid for your horse not to win.

mike65

PW-E
2.20 Musselburgh - Morocchius 17/2 win

Paper tip
4.10 Folkestone Tinkerbelle 3/1 unplaced

Anyone got the paper tips?

mike65

Kempton 4.40 Becausewecan 9/2

hopefully another to follow

boccy23

mike65 wrote: »

Anyone got the paper tips?

2:30 WIND Sunraider 3pts win
3:40 KEMP Hyades 1 pts e/w
4:40 KEMP State Banquet 2 pts win

mike65

The paper and PW-E going against each other in the 4.40. I think I'll pass.

boccy23

Agree about that one. There is also a once raced Bin Surror horse, Bawadi, in that one. Will take a wathcing brief also.

James Pyman (Trading Post) has Lake Chini in the 5:20 as Hamilton.

curious guy

boccy23 wrote: »

2:30 WIND Sunraider 3pts win
3:40 KEMP Hyades 1 pts e/w
4:40 KEMP State Banquet 2 pts win

sorry how does the points thing work..? its been buggin me with a while

Boxfresh

curious guy wrote: »

sorry how does the points thing work..? its been buggin me with a while

Basically the more points they advise the more confident they are in the horse to win. It can also be used to record the profit/loss. If they advise 1 point on a 5/1 horse that won they'd be up +5points. That's my understanding of it anyway.

mike65

Kempton 4.40 Becausewecan 9/2

Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! :mad: beaten on the line.

boccy23

mike65 wrote: »

Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! :mad: beaten on the line.

Thought you were going to pass Mike?

I left it alone and was cheering on Lethal Glaze.

mike65

I left the paper tips alone, had already gone with Becausewecan

argosy2006

mike65 wrote: »

I left the paper tips alone, had already gone with Becausewecan

Becausewecan lost though, maybe i,m de bad luck, i only back de losers and when theres a winner i miss it,
i,m very unlucky

mike65

He finished 2nd, at 9/2 so thats your almost all your e/w money back - 94c in the euro.

boccy23

Paper Tips

2:45 SEDG Itsallyours Al
4:30 SOUT Spring Quartet

mike65

4.30 Southwell - Spring Quartet moving at 7/2 Meh!

Both tipsters picking same horse, it better win.

mike65

4.30 Southwell - Spring Quartet 7/2 placed

3.40 Ayr High Severa 7/1, confirmed

Hit F5 in case of a second bet.

boccy23

Paper tips:

4:00 Warwick Suffolk Punch

4:10 Ayr Red Jade

mike65

3.40 Ayr High Severa 7/1 unplaced

I think this thread needs retitling Still, the cold run has to end at some point...

Southwell 5.30 - Golden Future 13/2

soundsham

or retiring maybe:D

Nulty

Chin up mike , 12-1 the otherday.

Golden Future's a slow mover, doesn't look like it's likely to get much shorter than 6's considering the field size

mike65

Another looser. While I'll keep posting the selections I'm quitting betting until the corner has been turned. The fact they are only selecting one horse a day rather than two and often at shorter odds suggests a loss of confidence.

argosy2006

if your goal is profit making and not just following pricewise regardless of success then maybe another tipster is one to follow, but who i dunno!
but it is possible to make profit every week, and it should be the goal,
it would mean selecting shorter prices but having more wins and more profit,
yea coming from a guy who lost big ,

''A strategy is a plan of action designed to achieve a particular goal''

Nulty

Your absolutely right mike, tipsters, as with horses, trainers and everything else go through patches of form. Keep posting though, just for posterity;)

soundsham

as delia said "lets be 'avin ye".......chin up mike, a change is a comin i can feel it:D

mike65

» 4.05 Newmarket Royal Trooper 17/1
» 5.10 Newmarket Eastern Hills 21/1

These are the two biggest movers on RP but a couple of strange choices....maybe they are getting desperate!

yaaaboy

mike65 wrote: »

Another looser. While I'll keep posting the selections I'm quitting betting until the corner has been turned. The fact they are only selecting one horse a day rather than two and often at shorter odds suggests a loss of confidence.

But if you look at the figures they give out at the end of the every month their always up, i think we are missing out on the staking plan as 1pt win is asdvised for some of them and up to 3pts win on others so if they advise a 6/1 shot for 3pts and it wins its really +18pts. Even 2pts win on a 5/1 shot would clear a backlog of 10 losers.
I watched an interview with hugh taylor on at the races a few days ago and he says that they dont worry in the slightest about the losers since they are goin for bigger priced winners they dont expect to win everyday and they never panic pick, only selecting the horses they think will win and some weeks have more "eyecatchers" than others.

I'll be sticking with it a while longer anyway with tiny bets on those tips today. Also someone i work with is signed up to the PWE tipping service and he said he'll give me his password for the last week of his subscription starting tomorrow so il post up the articles as soon as i get them (if thats ok with you mike)