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She says buy, I say wait - who's right?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,288 ✭✭✭✭ntlbell


    jetski wrote: »
    Yea im gonna sit here and search trought 2000 odd posts.... anyone can say prices are gonna come down... if your good youd say by how much.

    70% from peak.

    Bookmark it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    jetski wrote: »
    Yea im gonna sit here and search trought 2000 odd posts.... anyone can say prices are gonna come down... if your good youd say by how much.

    Its simple. Let me help you. Search under a username the word 'price drop' or 'price fall'.

    I've said since day1 in 2006 it would be at least 50%, i was laughed at then here and in real life.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    ntlbell wrote: »
    70% from peak.

    Bookmark it.

    That'll be marvellous - I'll be able to move back to my hometown and buy three houses on a 2.5 x salary mortgage. Can't wait.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,288 ✭✭✭✭ntlbell


    That'll be marvellous - I'll be able to move back to my hometown and buy three houses on a 2.5 x salary mortgage. Can't wait.

    That's if.

    you still have a job.

    if you're lucky to are on the same salary.

    That salary isn't getting taxed so much you can afford a mortgage of 2.5 your salary

    The banks have any money to give you.

    you have the capacity to save 3 X 20% deposits.

    and on and on and on

    where is home? I might buy a few myself.

    Once I talk the market down enough I'll have my own empire:cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,288 ✭✭✭✭ntlbell


    gurramok wrote: »
    Its simple. Let me help you. Search under a username the word 'price drop' or 'price fall'.

    I've said since day1 in 2006 it would be at least 50%, i was laughed at then here and in real life.

    I had told the missus our home would drop about 50% I had to give her a roll of kleenex she was laughing so hard.

    She not laughing any more :D


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 58 ✭✭Mugatu


    ntlbell wrote: »
    70% from peak.

    Bookmark it.

    For what? Houses, apartments, duplexes, sites?
    Where, Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Midlands?
    From what prices? Peak? According to some surveys certain parts of the market are down 50% already. So could I assume you are looking to bid an 20% lower on houses currently on the market?


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,288 ✭✭✭✭ntlbell


    Mugatu wrote: »
    For what? Houses, apartments, duplexes, sites?
    Where, Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Midlands?
    From what prices? Peak? According to some surveys certain parts of the market are down 50% already. So could I assume you are looking to bid an 20% lower on houses currently on the market?

    It was a bit of tongue and cheek at jeski as it's just about impossible to come up with a % figure like that.

    to answer the latter part I'm a home owner and not looking to bid on anything.


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭jetski


    I was gonna ask the same questions but didnt bother.... a €400,00.00 house in dublin is to be worth €120,00.00 HA!

    Edit: Should have know you werent serious


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    jetski wrote: »
    I was gonna ask the same questions but didnt bother.... a €400,00.00 house in dublin is to be worth €120,00.00 HA!

    Edit: Should have know you werent serious

    I've seen some asking 200k that were 400k in 2006.

    Its not unrealistic to expect it to hit 120k as we have a few more budgets to come along plus the rest of bubble has not burst yet as well as the bank problems not cleared up yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,679 ✭✭✭Freddie59


    gurramok wrote: »
    I've seen some asking 200k that were 400k in 2006.

    Its not unrealistic to expect it to hit 120k as we have a few more budgets to come along plus the rest of bubble has not burst yet as well as the bank problems not cleared up yet.

    Precisely. And Jetski - did I say I posted the predictions HERE?;):p:D

    PS I'D HATE TO HAVE BOUGHT A HOUSE AT THE PEAK THOUGH.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,288 ✭✭✭✭ntlbell


    Freddie59 wrote: »

    PS I'D HATE TO HAVE BOUGHT A HOUSE AT THE PEAK THOUGH.

    Get that salt out of your hands :D:pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭jetski


    Freddie59 wrote: »
    Precisely. And Jetski - did I say I posted the predictions HERE?;):p:D


    Now isnt the convenient.


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭jetski


    gurramok wrote: »
    I've seen some asking 200k that were 400k in 2006.

    Its not unrealistic to expect it to hit 120k as we have a few more budgets to come along plus the rest of bubble has not burst yet as well as the bank problems not cleared up yet.


    Ill buy you a present if you can show me a realistic house being sold for 120k that was for sale at 400,000 during the peak.


  • Registered Users Posts: 761 ✭✭✭mikewest


    jetski wrote: »
    Ill buy you a present if you can show me a realistic house being sold for 120k that was for sale at 400,000 during the peak.

    Who says we are at the bottom yet? Long way down before the economy of the country improves and maybe you can tell me which direction house prices will be going until then.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 365 ✭✭DJDC


    In reference to the OP, this excellent post by "Edo" from politics.ie may of some interest to you:
    Having said that - women were complete suckers for the whole property rollercoaster - the amount of property and consumerist porn that was produced to push the biological buttons in women in this country over the last 10 years was serious - houses,fashion,WEDDINGS etc etc - the whole thing was you could have it all - get your public service job (between 2000-2007 66%-70% of all PS jobs were taken by women), buy your mini/volkswagen convertable, throw on the auld Destiny's Child CD,, and spend your weekends off dragging the fella off to housing developments or Wedding fairs , or if single , buy that 1/2 bed duplex that cost 6-9 times your income - cos you'll be independent and those nice people at the property store said you were lucky to get in now , cos in 2 years or so you wouldn't be able to afford it and the prices would be thru the roof.

    In short, be careful.


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭jetski


    mikewest wrote: »
    Who says we are at the bottom yet?

    Good question let me know when you find out.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,064 ✭✭✭Gurgle


    gurramok wrote: »
    I've seen some asking 200k that were 400k in 2006.
    You've seen some asking 200k that were asking 400k or were sold at 400k in 2006?

    The difference is important.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,203 ✭✭✭bobbysands81


    rediguana wrote: »
    Hello,

    My wife and I are in our late twenties and, ordinarily, we would be actively house hunting about now. We're sick of renting (no garden, ugly Dunnes furniture, having to hide our cat).

    Anyway, she is desperate to buy. Obviously, houses are cheaper than they were. And apparently if you ask for tens of thousands of euro of you will get it (though I did read that, unsurprisingly, estate agents are just factoring in the "discount" to the price, so it isn't as much of a bargain as you might think).

    I'm aghast at the prospect of signing up to a thirty or forty-year mortgage when the market still seems to be tanking, and the bad news continues every day. I'm strongly opposed to buying until I am reading regularly, and from independent sources, that the market is near the bottom.

    I feel there is little risk in waiting six or twelve or eighteen months. In the meantime, we can (try to) organise our finance and get everything in place so that we're ready to pounce when things have reached their nadir.

    Buy low, isn't that the idea?

    Obviously, nobody can be certain about when is the best time to buy. But surely now isn't it?

    Let's be honest mate - she's right, women are ALWAYS right! ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 58 ✭✭Mugatu


    gurramok wrote: »
    I've seen some asking 200k that were 400k in 2006.

    Its not unrealistic to expect it to hit 120k as we have a few more budgets to come along plus the rest of bubble has not burst yet as well as the bank problems not cleared up yet.

    I'm being very honest that I don't have a clue where house prices are going. Probably some more downward pressure on them but I have no idea by how much.

    My big problem with this is at the peak a houe for 400k would be generally in an area like Knocklyon (for example), 3 bed semi-d. At 120K with an 8% deposit a person on their own claiming the dole could easily cover the monthly repayments (1 year teaser rate@ 360€ approx). Can someone explain to me how they see this as ever possible?:confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 686 ✭✭✭bangersandmash


    Gurgle wrote: »
    You've seen some asking 200k that were asking 400k or were sold at 400k in 2006?

    The difference is important.
    As we know the absence of any kind of public price database makes the latter difficult to ascertain beyond personal anecdotes from those who bought/sold at the time.

    I do think it's a fair assumption to make that the vast majority of properties sold in early to mid 2006 were sold for at least the asking price and probably more. These are still useful comparisons unless we're talking about unique properties.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 70 ✭✭PullOutMethod


    > "My big problem with this is at the peak a houe for 400k would be generally in an area like Knocklyon (for example), 3 bed semi-d. At 120K with an 8% deposit a person on their own claiming the dole could easily cover the monthly repayments (1 year teaser rate@ 360€ approx). Can someone explain to me how they see this as ever possible?confused.gif"

    Let me explain...the dole is about to be severely cut.
    According to economists (e.g. Moore McDowell) 90% of the increase in government revenue since 2000 was spent on 2 areas:
    (1) Public spending increases
    (2) Social welfare increases

    Now that that revenue has been savaged both of these areas are about to be severely curtailed.
    The government is awaiting 2 reports (due later this year) to rubber stamp this:
    The commission on Taxation and An Bord Snip.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 58 ✭✭Mugatu


    > "My big problem with this is at the peak a houe for 400k would be generally in an area like Knocklyon (for example), 3 bed semi-d. At 120K with an 8% deposit a person on their own claiming the dole could easily cover the monthly repayments (1 year teaser rate@ 360€ approx). Can someone explain to me how they see this as ever possible?confused.gif"

    Let me explain...the dole is about to be severely cut.
    According to economists (e.g. Moore McDowell) 90% of the increase in government revenue since 2000 was spent on 2 areas:
    (1) Public spending increases
    (2) Social welfare increases

    Now that that revenue has been savaged both of these areas are about to be severely curtailed.
    The government is awaiting 2 reports (due later this year) to rubber stamp this:
    The commission on Taxation and An Bord Snip.

    You must be a politician as you managed to avoid answering the real question I asked.;) But I take your point.

    So let me change my example. How about somone on minimum wage being easily able to afford this. Please don't try to tell me everyones wages will be cut down to below minimum wage over the next few years.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 70 ✭✭PullOutMethod


    Hi Mugatu,
    The minimum wage will be lowered.
    It must happen to regain competitiveness (it will lower childcare costs and a host of other living expenses).
    I predict it will come out as a recommendation from one of the two reports.
    Nothing weird in anything I am saying, Ireland is inevitably returning to European norms.

    P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 686 ✭✭✭bangersandmash


    Mugatu wrote: »
    My big problem with this is at the peak a houe for 400k would be generally in an area like Knocklyon (for example), 3 bed semi-d. At 120K with an 8% deposit a person on their own claiming the dole could easily cover the monthly repayments (1 year teaser rate@ 360€ approx). Can someone explain to me how they see this as ever possible?:confused:
    Whatever about the figure of €120k, it's probably not a good idea to base mortgage affordability on 1 year teaser rates when ECB rates are at a record low. At 5% over 25 years we would be talking €630 per month - without considering maintenance and the possibility of property taxes to come.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Gurgle wrote: »
    You've seen some asking 200k that were asking 400k or were sold at 400k in 2006?

    The difference is important.

    Yes it is. In early 2006, sale prices were going for more than the asking price in the last frenzy of the buying back then.
    jetski wrote: »
    Ill buy you a present if you can show me a realistic house being sold for 120k that was for sale at 400,000 during the peak.

    We're not there yet. Will you still buy me a present when it does?
    Mugatu wrote: »
    I'm being very honest that I don't have a clue where house prices are going. Probably some more downward pressure on them but I have no idea by how much.

    My big problem with this is at the peak a houe for 400k would be generally in an area like Knocklyon (for example), 3 bed semi-d. At 120K with an 8% deposit a person on their own claiming the dole could easily cover the monthly repayments (1 year teaser rate@ 360€ approx). Can someone explain to me how they see this as ever possible?:confused:

    Knocklyon were asking 500-600k back then. Bangersandmash answered your question correctly.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 58 ✭✭Mugatu


    gurramok wrote: »
    Yes it is. In early 2006, sale prices were going for more than the asking price in the last frenzy of the buying back then.



    We're not there yet. Will you still buy me a present when it does?



    Knocklyon were asking 500-600k back then. Bangersandmash answered your question correctly.

    10 year fixed is €530 a month.

    So lets say minumum wage goes to 6€ an hour. 6€*8hrs*5days*52weeks = a take home of €1000 a week (approx). So once again at a push someone on minimum wage could clear the payments.

    Sorry lads I never see this happening. People in that bracket should be looking to pickup a one bed apartment somewhere outside the city. Not a 3 bed semi is a very nice part of Dublin.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 70 ✭✭PullOutMethod


    Minimum wage earners have started paying levies and furthermore will be brought into the tax net in the next budget.
    You're pointing out inconsistencies in the system, these will exist until equilibrium is restored.


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭jetski


    gurramok wrote: »
    We're not there yet. Will you still buy me a present when it does?

    Absolutly, wrapped and a red ribbon for good measure.

    As a previous poster said, ill buy 4 of them myself


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 58 ✭✭Mugatu


    Minimum wage earners have started paying levies and furthermore will be brought into the tax net in the next budget.
    You're pointing out inconsistencies in the system, these will exist until equilibrium is restored.

    Ok, but you are only pointing out yet unknown possible tax increases, minimum wage cuts and dole cuts to avoid answering the original question. Do you see a point in time when very low earners can afford houses that have only been affordable to people on far above the average wage?

    My problem with this argument is it seems that people took Morgan Kelly saying the gains made in the boom would be lost by 70% in the bust, as meaning all houses will drop by 70%.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Mugatu wrote: »
    10 year fixed is €530 a month.

    So lets say minumum wage goes to 6€ an hour. 6€*8hrs*5days*52weeks = a take home of €1000 a week (approx). So once again at a push someone on minimum wage could clear the payments.

    Sorry lads I never see this happening. People in that bracket should be looking to pickup a one bed apartment somewhere outside the city. Not a 3 bed semi is a very nice part of Dublin.

    6 x 8 x 5 x 52 = €12480/12= 1040 per month...not week.

    Min wage jobs are not really guaranteed and i don't think banks would touch them for mortgages.

    However, nearly 40% of the workforce on around that wage never paid tax before the last budget so if there is chronic oversupply still in a couple of years, the demand issue with affordability of course will come into play for that bracket.

    That 70%+ is an overshoot as bubbles tend to force down the prices to the extreme before recovering to a stable level so it really depends how long that overshoot occurs.(Finland comes to mind)


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