She says buy, I say wait - who's right?

rediguana

Hello,

My wife and I are in our late twenties and, ordinarily, we would be actively house hunting about now. We're sick of renting (no garden, ugly Dunnes furniture, having to hide our cat).

Anyway, she is desperate to buy. Obviously, houses are cheaper than they were. And apparently if you ask for tens of thousands of euro of you will get it (though I did read that, unsurprisingly, estate agents are just factoring in the "discount" to the price, so it isn't as much of a bargain as you might think).

I'm aghast at the prospect of signing up to a thirty or forty-year mortgage when the market still seems to be tanking, and the bad news continues every day. I'm strongly opposed to buying until I am reading regularly, and from independent sources, that the market is near the bottom.

I feel there is little risk in waiting six or twelve or eighteen months. In the meantime, we can (try to) organise our finance and get everything in place so that we're ready to pounce when things have reached their nadir.

Buy low, isn't that the idea?

Obviously, nobody can be certain about when is the best time to buy. But surely now isn't it?

jobless

go with your gut feeling.... you are right to wait...

would you prefer to be sick of renting or sick that you might be in 30 k negative equity this time next year?

mrgaa1

you could be right - but you could also get a chance to buy your new home in an area where you want to. If you are planning on staying there for quite some time then over the long term your house will be an investment. Rent money is only good if you want to up sticks and move every so often.

davgtrek

No wait another 6-12 months. listening to an economist on radio last week who nailed the recession with his last book had a new book out. he was being interviewed and when asked about house prices he said only a mug would buy now thinking it had bottomed out. He felt it had another long way to fall and that at least next year was the time to buy.
He also reckoned that Ireland was facing 10 years before growth again.

Grim enough stuff so defo wait.
Like was said on another thread wait and wait until you hear that prices have just started to rise by like 1 %. that way you are sure you ar buying at the bottom.

rediguana

Thanks,

When we buy, there is a good chance that we will live in the house forever; it's not to sell on / make a profit off per se. The reason I want to wait is so that we end up getting a mortgage for (e.g.) €50K less for the same place.

She's tempted because mortgage repayments, at current interest rates and house prices, would be easily affordable for us. But why get locked in at (e.g.) €900 per month for thirty-five years when we can sit on our hands for a year and get the same house for €750 per month?

PCPhoto

dont buy.

is_that_so

Nothing to stop you looking anyway. You may also find that dream home, which negates that whole negative equity argument. As others have commented it depends on how much longer you can put up with rented accommodation. Perhaps a short term solution is to try to find nice accommodation to make the wait more tolerable.
Either way it strikes me that no-one really knows when the market will bottom out. There are good well-argued guesses but that's it. For the average punter IMO it comes down to circumstances as to when a property is good value to buy.

jobless

rediguana wrote: »

Thanks,

When we buy, there is a good chance that we will live in the house forever; it's not to sell on / make a profit off per se. The reason I want to wait is so that we end up getting a mortgage for (e.g.) €50K less for the same place.

She's tempted because mortgage repayments, at current interest rates and house prices, would be easily affordable for us. But why get locked in at (e.g.) €900 per month for thirty-five years when we can sit on our hands for a year and get the same house for €750 per month?

mortgage rates wont be this low forever, maybe only for a couple of years... remember the 50 k you might save on the mortgage cost will also nearly save you another 50 k over the life of the mortgage...

google the life cycle of housing busts or the reports from morgan kelly... it'll tell you the average bust is 6-7 years, we're still at the early stages of ours... and personally i think ours may be a lot worse than average!

Mr. Presentable

is_that_so wrote: »

Nothing to stop you looking anyway. You may also find that dream home, which negates that whole negative equity argument. As others have commented it depends on how much longer you can put up with rented accommodation. Perhaps a short term solution is to try to find nice accommodation to make the wait more tolerable.
Either way it strikes me that no-one really knows when the market will bottom out. There are are good well-argued guesses but that's it. For the average punter IMO it comes down to circumstances as to when a property is good value to buy.

This is pretty much it.

When people post here they ask the opinions of strangers. Inexperts. Agendaists. You should not base your decisions on the opinions of posters here - only you know when it is right for you

rediguana

My friend is an actuary in London and he was saying that a "fair" value for a house is 16-17 times the annual rent that a property generates, and that by that reckoning there is still some way to go.

Yeah, we kind of are looking. But for me that's the thin end of the wedge. If we see a nice place there is a risk we'll jump on it.

As an aside, there have been some terribly ugly places built in this country over the past few years. When I see how small some places (especially apartments) are and how poorly-designed and soundproofed many of them are, I lose any sympathy I might have had for the current woes of builders.

Is it really so hard to design attractive apartments like you might see on the continent?

rediguana

Nipplenuts, I'm going for the wisdom of the crowds here

With all due respect to the power of Boards, I won't base any life-changing decisions on one of its threads. It's just kind of a starting point. Anecdotal stuff has its place. Read the papers and much of the info is skewed and biased.

mikewest

Ask her how much extra she is willing spend to buy now. Use one of the mortgage calculators out there and set the rate at a "normal" average rate i.e. 5% or greater not our current historic lows. Then input the price of the house today into the calculator and note the total repayments over the life of the mortgage e.g €300,000 will require €580,000 total repayments while if you wait for 12 months of the current price drops you will probably buy the same house for €250,000 requiring €483,000 in total over 30 years and leaving you richer to the tune of €97,000 for a wait of 12 months. Do your own calculations and figure how much you will save over your lifetime by waiting. Maybe she can be convinced this way.

rediguana

mikewest wrote: »

Ask her how much extra she is willing spend to buy now. Use one of the mortgage calculators out there and set the rate at a "normal" average rate i.e. 5% or greater not our current historic lows. Then input the price of the house today into the calculator and note the total repayments over the life of the mortgage e.g €300,000 will require €580,000 total repayments while if you wait for 12 months of the current price drops you will probably buy the same house for €250,000 requiring €483,000 in total over 30 years and leaving you richer to the tune of €97,000 for a wait of 12 months. Do your own calculations and figure how much you will save over your lifetime by waiting. Maybe she can be convinced this way.

I think this is a great way of looking at it, thanks. I'll definitely be showing her this.

rediguana

Thanks everyone. i'll be offline for a while, but I'll check back later.

colsku

You're dead right... It would be a terrible decision to let your (wife's) emotions cloud your judgment and buy now.

A serious amount of info on www.thepropertypin.com

Murtinho

As someone said, no harm in looking, check out peak prices, loads of info on the pin etc and take 30-40% off that, put in a few low ball bids if you find something you like but remember your the one calling the shots and that there is serious money to be saved.

oceanclub

rediguana wrote: »

We're sick of renting (no garden, ugly Dunnes furniture, having to hide our cat).

So rent a place with a garden and no furniture. That's what we're about to do when our lease if up; for the current rental price of our city 1-bed, it seems easy enough to get a 2-bed house in the 'burbs.

P.

Gurgle

Only thing I would add: Don't expect the current interest rates to last too long, daft & their radio ads would have you believe 'its cheaper to buy than rent'. Sure it is, this month, but you're going to be paying that mortgage for a long time.

Do your calculations for an ECB rate of 5% and see how it works out.

Colin12

now isn't the time 2 buy you would be mad 2. the market will drop even more over the next few years. however if you plan 2 live there forever it can be a different story. way up the pro's and the con's how much will you spend on rent between now and when you do actually buy would it make more sense to actually buy now. however plans are made to be changed very few people stay in the one house forever so if you buy now and in a few years your circumstances change you will most definately make a loss on the sale of the property. happy hunting

ZYX

mikewest wrote: »

Ask her how much extra she is willing spend to buy now. Use one of the mortgage calculators out there and set the rate at a "normal" average rate i.e. 5% or greater not our current historic lows. Then input the price of the house today into the calculator and note the total repayments over the life of the mortgage e.g €300,000 will require €580,000 total repayments while if you wait for 12 months of the current price drops you will probably buy the same house for €250,000 requiring €483,000 in total over 30 years and leaving you richer to the tune of €97,000 for a wait of 12 months. Do your own calculations and figure how much you will save over your lifetime by waiting. Maybe she can be convinced this way.

Every time this comes up I respond in the same way. You are not taking inflation into account. In real terms if inflation rate is the same as the interest rate over the 30 year term you will only save the original €50,000. If average interest rates over next 30 years are lower than inflation, then, in real terms, your saving after 30 years will be less than the original €50,000.

Xiney

Inflation is very rarely higher than interest rates. Even at the height of the boom in Ireland inflation never touched 6%.

mikewest

ZYX wrote: »

Every time this comes up I respond in the same way. You are not taking inflation into account. In real terms if inflation rate is the same as the interest rate over the 30 year term you will only save the original €50,000. If average interest rates over next 30 years are lower than inflation, then, in real terms, your saving after 30 years will be less than the original €50,000.

I'm sorry but what you are saying does not make the least bit of sense. Assuming an average 5 % interest rate for a 30 year lifespan of a mortgage then it will cost you €97,000 more to buy a house at €300,000 than it will cost you to buy a house at €250,000 regardless of the intervening inflation rate. In fact if the inflation rate is higher than average the differential between the two costs will be even greater as interest rates will be hiked up to "control" inflation and mortgage rates always exceed inflation rates when averaged over time or the lender loses money.

ZYX

mikewest wrote: »

I'm sorry but what you are saying does not make the least bit of sense. Assuming an average 5 % interest rate for a 30 year lifespan of a mortgage then it will cost you €97,000 more to buy a house at €300,000 than it will cost you to buy a house at €250,000 regardless of the intervening inflation rate. In fact if the inflation rate is higher than average the differential between the two costs will be even greater as interest rates will be hiked up to "control" inflation and mortgage rates always exceed inflation rates when averaged over time or the lender loses money.

Yes it will save you €97,000 but that is in 2039. I am talking about "real terms" The buying power of the money depends on inflation in the mean time. To put it in context, think what you can buy with €97,000 now and what you could buy with it in 1979 then you will get the idea.

mikewest

ZYX wrote: »

Yes it will save you €97,000 but that is in 2039. I am talking about "real terms" The buying power of the money depends on inflation in the mean time. To put it in context, think what you can buy with €97,000 now and what you could buy with it in 1979 then you will get the idea.

No, you are saving yourself about €270 per month every month for 30 years. Personally I would prefer to have that €270 per month rather than giving it to a developer or specualtor for an overpriced house but thats just me.

ZYX

mikewest wrote: »

No, you are saving yourself about €270 per month every month for 30 years. Personally I would prefer to have that €270 per month rather than giving it to a developer or specualtor for an overpriced house but thats just me.

€210 a month not €270. Listen I am not saying it's not good to save €50,000 if this is what happens, but people have to be realistic. €50,000 is not €97000.

kmick

I agree that now may not be the time to buy as prices are likely to fall further. But everyone says oh I am going to wait until we reach the bottom. Problem with that is who calls the bottom. Also the bottom is not going to be the same for all types of housing. In other words a 3 bed semi in Rochestown in Cork (desirable location, desirable size) is going to reach and bounce off the bottom a lot faster than a 1 bed apartment in Mahon (less desirable area, less desirable size). There was a development in Dublin near the Phoenix Park and a train station (Ashtown I think) which recently sold out of a special offer of a 1 bed apt for 158k (Desirable price, desirable location, undesirable size). So now lets say that the bottom has been reached in that area as properties in that location at that price are selling. http://www.daft.ie/searchnew_development.daft?id=8442&search=1

So now lets assume you have an area (Bishopstown), a size (3 bed semi 1000sq ft) and a price in mind (225,000). What you need to do is look for a fire sale, a sale due to a parent passing away, or less palatably a repossession sale. In this case the current value of say nominally 250,000 becomes very negotiable. So all of a sudden you are building in a buffer against further falls.

Not taking into account the fact that yourt rent is paying someone elses mortgage,you and your cat may not have to sneak around any more and that your wife is likely to nag you mercilously on this (the nesting factor) you should get your finances in order now and start looking around. Get to know the market intimately. What is falling fast, what is falling slowly, where are other first time buyers buying and why would that be, which banks are lending, how much can you borrow, how safe are your jobs etc etc etc. You have no defence if you are not armed with all the facts. You may not buy now or in the next 12 months but information is king. because of the number of variables at play here the one size fits all answer you are looking for here just does not exist.

Caveat emptor

mikewest

ZYX wrote: »

€210 a month not €270. Listen I am not saying it's not good to save €50,000 if this is what happens, but people have to be realistic. €50,000 is not €97000.

Please check your figures. The difference for an "average" 5% rate is approx €1610 pm for €300,000 and approx €1340 pm for €250,000. The €50,000 initial difference becomes €97,000 purely because it is based on a €300,000 mortgage. This is all assuming a low average interest rate for 30 years but we have seen interest rates in the high teens for long periods in this country in the past and this is where anyone overpaying for a house will get royally screwed as economic recovery works it way through the system

El Stuntman

rediguana wrote: »

She's tempted because mortgage repayments, at current interest rates and house prices, would be easily affordable for us. But why get locked in at (e.g.) €900 per month for thirty-five years when we can sit on our hands for a year and get the same house for €750 per month?

if you need to take out a 35 year mortgage, you can't afford it, simple as - it will cost you a fortune in extra interest too.

wait until you can comfortably afford the repayments on a 20/25 year mortgage, prices are only going one direction

Borzoi

kmick wrote: »

I agree that now may not be the time to buy as prices are likely to fall further. But everyone says oh I am going to wait until we reach the bottom. Problem with that is who calls the bottom.

Also, no one will be able to call the bottom until after it happens, and some of the doomsayers around here will then go into talking about dead cat bounces etc etc.

Use your best judgement, buying a home isn't just a financial transaction

Freddie59

To the OP:

As well as www.thepropertypin.com check these also:

www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com

www.irishpropertywatch.com

www.irishhometruths.com

And oh - DON'T BUT FOR A WHILE YET.

We viewed a house in a new development in Waterford City yesterday.

1200 sq ft 3-bed semi-D. Beautiful house. Was on at €335k up to last week. Now reduced to €245k - fully furnished. And there will be more to come. There are some 350,000 unsold units in the country. TWENTY YEARS SUPPLY according to some.

krugerrand

rediguana wrote: »

Nipplenuts, I'm going for the wisdom of the crowds here

With all due respect to the power of Boards, I won't base any life-changing decisions on one of its threads. It's just kind of a starting point. Anecdotal stuff has its place. Read the papers and much of the info is skewed and biased.

Glad that you won't base any of your life-changing decisions based on what you read in a thread on Boards.ie. You'll find a lot of evangelical types here on Boards who will try and convince you that house prices will be falling for years on end. I would strongly advise you to use your common sense to reject much of what these doomsday merchants are peddling on Boards.ie and on some of the more extremist internet forums for irish property. Many of these doomsday merchants have a vested interest; they attempt to scare potential purchasers (mainly first-time-buyers) from buying by "talking down" house prices in the hope that the doomsday merchant himself will be able pick up a house on the cheap. You can spot them a mile away.

dny123456

OP, would you be happy waiting 10 years?

That's how long you might be waiting, as the price may very well continue to slowly slide, or stay stable for a very long time. The big drop is over, but now we could be in for a slow painful grinding down of prices. Problem with waiting of course is, a shorter time to pay the mortgage off (and higher repayments as a result) and more importantly 10 years of hiding the cat!

Good luck with the choice, you will probably dither for a couple of years and then eventually get fed up waiting and take the plunge.

Either that or you'll break up with the GF and lose the cat.

jetski

LOL

gurramok

krugerrand wrote: »

Glad that you won't base any of your life-changing decisions based on what you read in a thread on Boards.ie. You'll find a lot of evangelical types here on Boards who will try and convince you that house prices will be falling for years on end. I would strongly advise you to use your common sense to reject much of what these doomsday merchants are peddling on Boards.ie and on some of the more extremist internet forums for irish property. Many of these doomsday merchants have a vested interest; they attempt to scare potential purchasers (mainly first-time-buyers) from buying by "talking down" house prices in the hope that the doomsday merchant himself will be able pick up a house on the cheap. You can spot them a mile away.

That post belongs in the Humour forum.

Selling a gaff are you? Overpaid for your gaff?

Of course, falling prices is nothing to do with economics and more to do with scaremongering:p

'Doomsday merchants', 'extremist internet forums', this gets funnier.
Never knew there would be an Al Qaeda style property forum in existence

SkepticOne

Get her to agree to hold off for one year and see where things stand then would be my advice. Personally I think there's at least a couple more years of declines. The reason for this view is that there's still a lot of denial out there that the market has yet to purge.

Pa ElGrande

If you don't like the place you are currently renting there are plenty other places available to rent, prices have come down and some even have gardens and are more flexible towards cats.
If you are thinking of starting a family you can even rent in an area you might desire to live long term either near a school and other services.

Of course there is nothing to stop you going out there and doing some tyre kicking, there are some good properties on sale via EAs that are not advertised on the web sites such as daft.ie for fear of alerting the neighbours and creditors to their financial distress.

The challenge for you, you are being motivated by emotional rather than rational considerations and this is nearly always a bad idea as the basis of a major financial commitment over 30/40 years.

What I would suggest is you sit down with a pen and paper, turn off the TV and d'internet and write out the reasons for buying and the reasons for renting. Also get your girlfriend to do this exercise, but you have to be honest, and try and workout realistic costs of both options and other costs of living (kids are expensive). You can then use it as a basis to decide what specifications you both want in a property, what your price and location limits are and what will meet your goals in life.

This is a useful exercise because you both will be like putty in an estate agents fingers the minute you step through the door of his/her office, your girlfriend will select the property that you are going to buy, the EA will pick right up on this and play to it. So if you guys already know what you want and how much you are prepared to pay for it, then you can start knocking the vendors down to meet your expectations and best of all there is no pressure on you to queue overnight to get an overpriced shoebox like in 2006 and if the vendor does not accept your offer then bide your time there are other properties out there.

We are not at the end of the housing price crash and if you buy today then the price of your home will be lower next year, this is a matter of fact that you normally expect when buying a car, why should a buying a house be any different? If you both have already worked this out logically before you commit to buying, then there is no scope for recrimination or beating your self up in a years time when it's cheaper again.

tomcollins97

I am also looking with a view to buying in 9-12 months. I am more ‘actively’ searching than my partner but I wouldn’t say I am desperate! I have seen about 10 houses in the last 6 weeks, not a lot I know, but none of them are right. I am prepared for it to take up to a year to find a home which is why I have started looking before we get desperate. Let her look, chances are nothing will come up for a few months anyway. It amy be worthwhile putting a list together of ‘must haves’ and ‘nice to haves’. This is great to use when viewing a property. You may be wowed on first impression but if you start ticking off items on your list and many are not there it makes it easier to have an unemotional response and walk away if the place is not perfect.

Just to give you and idea these are the types of things we have specified that we want:

Garden – decent size and south or west facing.
Beds – min 3 but must have potential to extend
Type – preferably an older house
Location – we have a few picked. We both hate estate houses so are staying away from these
Budget – our max is to buy a walk-in property or cover the cost of purchase+renovations

rediguana

Thanks for the advice, everyone. On balance, I thought people were saying to wait. I showed my wife the thread and she called it a draw - that's what you're up against! :rolleyes:

I'm not saying we should wait forever, I just think there iz zero risk in waiting another few months (maybe as few as six) just to shave another X-grand off prices. We're not planning to move ever from the place, so the negative equity thing, though annoying, isn't a primary concern for us.

She says we should just roll in making stupidly-low offers for places and, as someone in this thread noted, if you can knock off a good bit this way, you insulate yourself to an extent against future price falls.

If I even thought that the bulk of the bust was over, I'd be happy to wade in now. Someone in this thread said that the main decrease is behind us, but I'm sure there would be massive disagreement on that point.

Anyway, keep the arguments coming. I reckon I only need another six or seven "wait, you fools!" points before we have a winner

gurramok

Think of it this way regiguana.

We are going to have a budget today with tax rises/cutbacks. As a result if they do as they have decared in the run up to today, it will leave everyone with less disposable income.

That means less amounts can be borrowed via mortages from banks and that results in even lower selling prices on the market to accommodate this, its really common sense that the only way is down from now on on this aspect.

Xiney

Personally, I would at least wait until unemployment stops rising so fast.

I mean, I won't make any assumptions about your jobs, but nothing is particularly safe right now, apart from collections agents.

But even if your jobs are safe, it stands to reason that prices are going to continue to drop while people continue to lose their jobs.

ntlbell

krugerrand wrote: »

Glad that you won't base any of your life-changing decisions based on what you read in a thread on Boards.ie. You'll find a lot of evangelical types here on Boards who will try and convince you that house prices will be falling for years on end. I would strongly advise you to use your common sense to reject much of what these doomsday merchants are peddling on Boards.ie and on some of the more extremist internet forums for irish property. Many of these doomsday merchants have a vested interest; they attempt to scare potential purchasers (mainly first-time-buyers) from buying by "talking down" house prices in the hope that the doomsday merchant himself will be able pick up a house on the cheap. You can spot them a mile away.

Yes, boards is single handedly responsible for the down turn.

can you give us an overview what YOU think is going to happen over lets say the next 12 months it might be helpful to the OP and I'm looking forward to hearing some good news and a bit of positivity.

voxpop

I still think there is quite a bit if denial and a refusal to drop prices in the property market. I think if you go in with low bids your offer wont be accepted in most cases as the seller still wants to "hold out" for what the property is worth in their eyes (read a year ago).

For example - take the rental market. There is a glut of houses out there and yet I keep coming across houses with really poor finishes, grubby and unkept interiors, rubbish furniture that the landlord is unwilling to remove, crazy conditions on renting and no flexibility. These ppl are still looking for 1600/1700 a month! even thought the house has been sitting empty for 2+ months. They think that because they got away with this for the last rental that they will get away with it for the next rental.

This time next year - it will have sunk in and property might become somewhat reasonable. Even the argument of keeping the house for life is not great because no matter how well you plan, life has a way of being unpredictable. You may get a great job offer, but have to move to take it, for example, but you cant because you house is worth 50k less than your mortgage.

I would wait until 2010 at least - the government is going to continue to scrabble around and everything will be up in the air for the next few months. It will need to settle down before anyone can have have a hope of calling the bottom of the decline correctly.

t-ha

I'm not a property expert or anything, so take this with a pinch of salt.

I'd say the power is in your hands more so than anytime in the recent past when it comes to buying a house. Have a look & you may find your ideal property and your bargaining power will be high.

The only things I would add are that [1] you should be willing to walk away and not buy if you can't get exactly what you want, and [2] you should be able to pay your mortgage comfortably, so that new taxes/levies don't endanger your ability to pay and you can handle any future inflation from economic revival plans.

Shane™

1/ I would just like to point out that at the moment with so many houses and so little competition that you really can buy any house you like, more so that any time in the recent past or when the market does eventually pick up.

2/ I would also like to say as did another poster before me, that house prices are not likely to rise again while the economy is in such bad condition, if the economy picks up prices may or may not continue to fall but at least it would be a much safer time to buy than now.

3/ My first point is actually not a good reason to buy, I believe that the perfect house will always cost more and for me it's not worth it. I would much prefer to buy a cheaper/bigger/better located "almost" perfect house later than buying now.

For what it's worth I predicted a 50% drop over 10 years when I was looking to buy 3 years ago (when my wife was pregnant) and I'm sticking by that for myself. I think it's likely that we could follow Japan where if I remember correctly they're house prices fell for 14 years in a row. I think there's no harm buying into negative equity if you know what you're doing . . . unless of course the economy is falling to pieces.

krugerrand

Quote:
Originally Posted by krugerrand
Glad that you won't base any of your life-changing decisions based on what you read in a thread on Boards.ie. You'll find a lot of evangelical types here on Boards who will try and convince you that house prices will be falling for years on end. I would strongly advise you to use your common sense to reject much of what these doomsday merchants are peddling on Boards.ie and on some of the more extremist internet forums for irish property. Many of these doomsday merchants have a vested interest; they attempt to scare potential purchasers (mainly first-time-buyers) from buying by "talking down" house prices in the hope that the doomsday merchant himself will be able pick up a house on the cheap. You can spot them a mile away.

gurramok wrote: »

That post belongs in the Humour forum.

Selling a gaff are you? Overpaid for your gaff?

Of course, falling prices is nothing to do with economics and more to do with scaremongering:p

'Doomsday merchants', 'extremist internet forums', this gets funnier.
Never knew there would be an Al Qaeda style property forum in existence

No, your post should be in the Humour forum instead.

Sounds lilke I touched a raw nerve with you; your rection says it all.

Since you have asked, I can tell you, no i'm not selling a house, no I did not pay too much for my house, and, furthermore, I got on the property ladder in the 1990s.

As I said before, there's quite a few people on this Forum with Vested Interests in "talking down" house prices and I'm sure that any reader with a modicum of common sense and intelligence can see right through them.

So, let me guess, you might be predicting that the price of a three bedroom semi in, let's say Lucan, will be no more than €70k in five years time?

gurramok

krugerrand wrote: »

No, your post should be in the Humour forum instead.

Sounds lilke I touched a raw nerve with you; your rection says it all.

Since you have asked, I can tell you, no i'm not selling a house, no I did not pay too much for my house, and, furthermore, I got on the property ladder in the 1990s.

As I said before, there's quite a few people on this Forum with Vested Interests in "talking down" house prices and I'm sure that any reader with a modicum of common sense and intelligence can see right through them.

So, let me guess, you might be predicting that the price of a three bedroom semi in, let's say Lucan, will be no more than €70k in five years time?

All i can see is a rant against anyone detailing economic sense. You cannot 'talk down' house prices, the economy takes care of that.

Those Vested Interests you speak of are buyers who do not want to be saddled with 35yr mortgages on a shoebox and to your surprise contains homeowners who see this policy are dangerous and morally wrong.

Those other Vested Interests are those whose livelihoods depend on selling those 35yrs mortgages to those buyers hence warrant valid criticism using facts and figures.

If you cannot see the difference between the two sets, well where is the intelligence and common sense?

ntlbell

krugerrand wrote: »

Quote:
Originally Posted by krugerrand
Glad that you won't base any of your life-changing decisions based on what you read in a thread on Boards.ie. You'll find a lot of evangelical types here on Boards who will try and convince you that house prices will be falling for years on end. I would strongly advise you to use your common sense to reject much of what these doomsday merchants are peddling on Boards.ie and on some of the more extremist internet forums for irish property. Many of these doomsday merchants have a vested interest; they attempt to scare potential purchasers (mainly first-time-buyers) from buying by "talking down" house prices in the hope that the doomsday merchant himself will be able pick up a house on the cheap. You can spot them a mile away.


No, your post should be in the Humour forum instead.

Sounds lilke I touched a raw nerve with you; your rection says it all.

Since you have asked, I can tell you, no i'm not selling a house, no I did not pay too much for my house, and, furthermore, I got on the property ladder in the 1990s.

As I said before, there's quite a few people on this Forum with Vested Interests in "talking down" house prices and I'm sure that any reader with a modicum of common sense and intelligence can see right through them.

So, let me guess, you might be predicting that the price of a three bedroom semi in, let's say Lucan, will be no more than €70k in five years time?

so again just to clarify your position

you think there will be NO more reductions from now and we have established the bottom?

can you clear this up and explain why it is so?

Freddie59

gurramok wrote: »

All i can see is a rant against anyone detailing economic sense. You cannot 'talk down' house prices, the economy takes care of that.

Those Vested Interests you speak of are buyers who do not want to be saddled with 35yr mortgages on a shoebox and to your surprise contains homeowners who see this policy are dangerous and morally wrong.

Those other Vested Interests are those whose livelihoods depend on selling those 35yrs mortgages to those buyers hence warrant valid criticism using facts and figures.

Hands up! I'm a vested interest. Sold our home in November. Got good money for it, thank God. Do not want to pay above the odds while the market is in freefall. Advise others when I can, and on any forum, about information freely available on the Internet. Guilty as charged m'Lud!:)

For God's sake, why are people called vested interests because they're trying to obtain maixumum value for minimum debt? It's common sense.

And what's helping us all this time around? The Internet. Instant information. On demand. The nemesis of the EAs and Property Developers. Long may it last!:D

JuliusCaesar

On the other hand, if you can afford it, you can make extra payments against your mortgage now while interest rates are low, thus reducing the interest you pay in the long-term AND reducing the life of your mortgage.

PS many of the bank of unsold houses will stay unsold because a) they are in locations far from anywhere -see ghosttown.ie and b) the quality of the build is atrocious.

krugerrand

gurramok wrote: »

All i can see is a rant against anyone detailing economic sense. You cannot 'talk down' house prices, the economy takes care of that.

Those Vested Interests you speak of are buyers who do not want to be saddled with 35yr mortgages on a shoebox and to your surprise contains homeowners who see this policy are dangerous and morally wrong.

Those other Vested Interests are those whose livelihoods depend on selling those 35yrs mortgages to those buyers hence warrant valid criticism using facts and figures.

If you cannot see the difference between the two sets, well where is the intelligence and common sense?

Obviously both have Vested Interests. On this forum, I've read many tirades by posters against what they call Vested Interests who they believe contributed to the rise in house prices. Yet the danger of these posts is that the very same poster is apparently either oblivious of or suspiciously silent about the fact that he himself holds a Vested Interest.

So, why not be honest and say: "Hi, I'm [insert your name here], I want house prices to come down and I have a Vested Interest in having lower house prices so that I can buy one cheaper. Therefore, to try and realise my Vested Interest I'm going to be excessively negative in my predictions for house prices in the hope that this will scare other purchasers and result in the prophesy becoming self fulfilling."

Woger

Sorry to bring this off topic but I have a question about negative equity. Is this only an issue if you are thinking about selling in the near future and is one of the problems with some Irish property buyers that they are thinking of what should be their home as short term investment?
Thanks