Been waiting for prices to fall further..going to buy now..am I mad?

TheCityManager · 28-03-2009 3:59pm

I can't believe this topic is still going

Here's a FINAL question that could finally put this topic to bed (at last I hear many say :rolleyes:)

House being (maybe..) purchased for 280k, others in estate in much better condition going for (asking..) 365 - 420k....so what do all think mine could fall to in next year? (I say the next year as no way I will rent any longer .. need our own home asap..... ) (BTW the one in estate for 365k was sale agreed yesterday...)

dbyrne · 28-03-2009 11:10pm

what was the price at the peak? where is the house, what type of house is it.
id say knock 35 - 40% off the price when it was at the top and you will get what the price is now. i think there is at least 1 year of the houses going down, i havenoticed in my own are houses that were selling 350 or just below at christmas/jan are now selling for 300k and just under, thats pre 2005 prices. wish i was one of the people who owned ha house 10 or 15 years ago as i would still have a profit if i sold..

ntlbell · 28-03-2009 11:30pm

Gurgle wrote: »

I'll take a stab at this with an analogy:

Buying a home is more like buying a new car than investing in stocks and shares.

But who in their right mind would buy a new car?

Guaranteed to fall in value and NEVER recover, massively overpriced - a huge expenditure compared to public transport (analogous to renting a home).

And yet hundreds of thousands of new cars are bought in Ireland every year.

What (if anything) do you drive ntbell?

Your telling me people make terrible financial descions, your telling me there's lots of these people

what your not doing is explaining why it makes financial sense to buy into an OVERPRICED AND FALLING market

your just saying the country is full of morons.

I drive a 13yr old pulsar

why?

cls · 30-03-2009 8:21am

ntlbell wrote: »

Your telling me people make terrible financial descions, your telling me there's lots of these people

what your not doing is explaining why it makes financial sense to buy into an OVERPRICED AND FALLING market

your just saying the country is full of morons.

I drive a 13yr old pulsar

why?

And all you're saying is spending money on something that does not give you a short term profit does not make financial sense. I'm in middle class society. I spend money every day on things I need and whether or not I get a profitable return on those items has no bearing on my decision. (Granted, a house is a big asset and warrants considerable thought). In fact, I don't think there has been one thing in my life I have ever bought for profit. I think I represent the vast majority of the world never mind the country. If you want to give advice on how to maximise profit on investments then by all means go ahead. But your advice on when or why to buy a home is truly awful.

ntlbell · 30-03-2009 9:56am

cls wrote: »

And all you're saying is spending money on something that does not give you a short term profit does not make financial sense. I'm in middle class society. I spend money every day on things I need and whether or not I get a profitable return on those items has no bearing on my decision. (Granted, a house is a big asset and warrants considerable thought). In fact, I don't think there has been one thing in my life I have ever bought for profit. I think I represent the vast majority of the world never mind the country. If you want to give advice on how to maximise profit on investments then by all means go ahead. But your advice on when or why to buy a home is truly awful.

No it has nothing to do with making a profit.

It's about paying for something that's OVERPRICED and FALLING _today_

i haven't given ANY advice on when to buy so how could it be awful

this is about saving money, having a better standard of living for the next 20 years or so and paying less interest over all.

if a 300k house drops 10% over a year you save the 10% drop 30k the interest you would of paid on it lets give it an avergae of 15k

you save 45k it costs you 12-15k to rent you save 30k on the life of the mortgage

buy today save 12-15k rent and lose 30k this does not make financial sense

I've asked 4 times, this is the 5th time

can you explain how buying into AN OVERPRICED AND FALLING MARKET

makes sense

you can use any example you like but please explain the above.

Gurgle · 30-03-2009 11:17am

ntlbell wrote: »

I've asked 4 times, this is the 5th time

can you explain how buying into AN OVERPRICED AND FALLING MARKET

makes sense

You're just failing to read / understand the replies.

The majority of potential house purchasers are not buying into a market of any kind, they are buying a home to give themselves and their families a better quality of living.

It's not about 'what can I sell it for next year?'

ntlbell · 30-03-2009 11:20am

Gurgle wrote: »

You're just failing to read / understand the replies.

The majority of potential house purchasers are not buying into a market of any kind, they are buying a home to give themselves and their families a better quality of living.

It's not about 'what can I sell it for next year?'

no you're failing to answer the question.

what part of i'm not talking about profit do you not understand?

but the cost of giving them that familiy home will be cheaper tomorrow than it is today.

so for your personal finances profit or no profit it doesn't make any sense to buy it today?

The_Conductor · 30-03-2009 11:22am

Careful people- if you disagree with what someone posts- refute the post- do not attack the poster.

Regards,

SMcCarrick

CiaranC · 30-03-2009 11:23am

Gurgle wrote: »

You're just failing to read / understand the replies.

The majority of potential house purchasers are not buying into a market of any kind, they are buying a home to give themselves and their families a better quality of living.

It's not about 'what can I sell it for next year?'

If they were looking to give themselves and their families a better quality of living, they would be better off holding out until prices dropped, surely?

If they can save another 100k over the life of their mortgage, that money can go on improving their quality of life over that period.

Freddie59 · 30-03-2009 11:58am

Gurgle wrote: »

You're just failing to read / understand the replies.

The majority of potential house purchasers are not buying into a market of any kind, they are buying a home to give themselves and their families a better quality of living.

It's not about 'what can I sell it for next year?'

No. What its about is 'why should I take on an extra €50k/€100k/whatever on a mortgage when I don't have to'. A no-brainer.

Freddie59 · 30-03-2009 11:59am

ntlbell wrote: »

No it has nothing to do with making a profit.

It's about paying for something that's OVERPRICED and FALLING _today_

i haven't given ANY advice on when to buy so how could it be awful

this is about saving money, having a better standard of living for the next 20 years or so and paying less interest over all.

if a 300k house drops 10% over a year you save the 10% drop 30k the interest you would of paid on it lets give it an avergae of 15k

you save 45k it costs you 12-15k to rent you save 30k on the life of the mortgage

buy today save 12-15k rent and lose 30k this does not make financial sense

I've asked 4 times, this is the 5th time

can you explain how buying into AN OVERPRICED AND FALLING MARKET

makes sense

you can use any example you like but please explain the above.

Great post.:)

cls · 30-03-2009 12:35pm

Freddie59 wrote: »

No. What its about is 'why should I take on an extra €50k/€100k/whatever on a mortgage when I don't have to'. A no-brainer.

The same can be said for every singe purchase you make. If you hold off buying things until they are cheaper you will never buy anything. There comes a point where your needs outweigh the need to save money.

Why pay an extra €3K on a car when you can wait a year?
Why pay an extra €1K on a laptop when you can wait 18 months?
Why pay an extra €500 on a summer holiday when you can wait until winter? etc etc etc

I understand that some people are in no rush and are more than happy to sit things out. You're just failing to ignore the point that it is all circumstantial. I'll buy a car now because I need it now, I'll buy that laptop now because I need it now. There is no difference.

Can I ask you what exactly do you want out of the current decline? for houses to be affordable? Person A can afford a house, Person B cannot afford a house. Does that make houses unaffordable? No, it makes them unaffordable to person B. Its all circumstantial and every person is different.

ntlbell · 30-03-2009 12:46pm

cls wrote: »

Why pay an extra €3K on a car when you can wait a year?
Why pay an extra €1K on a laptop when you can wait 18 months?
Why pay an extra €500 on a summer holiday when you can wait until winter? etc etc etc

Say the new car is 30k

what if I let you rent the car 1k for the year and offer you the same car for 25k at the end of the year?

total cost of car 26k, you get it NOW and still pay 4k less?

buying a laptop is not going to affect the next 30 years of your life paying over 200k in interest payments on the avg home etc

your not matching like with like

and right now

the OP doesn't NEED to buy the house he's living in it.

cls · 30-03-2009 1:15pm

ntlbell wrote: »

Say the new car is 30k

what if I let you rent the car 1k for the year and offer you the same car for 25k at the end of the year?

total cost of car 26k, you get it NOW and still pay 4k less?

buying a laptop is not going to affect the next 30 years of your life paying over 200k in interest payments on the avg home etc

your not matching like with like

and right now

the OP doesn't NEED to buy the house he's living in it.

The OP has stated it is more expensive for him to rent. He has also stated he needs his own house ASAP. This is a man in his 40's with a family. Clearly you do not get it.

ntlbell · 30-03-2009 1:18pm

cls wrote: »

The OP has stated it is more expensive for him to rent. He has also stated he needs his own house ASAP. This is a man in his 40's with a family. Clearly you do not get it.

so

lets try it again

the car is 30k

i offer to let it to you for 1k for the year and you can buy the car at the end of the year for 25k total price of the car = 26k buy it now price 30k

DJDC · 30-03-2009 1:19pm

I understand that some people are in no rush and are more than happy to sit things out. You're just failing to ignore the point that it is all circumstantial. I'll buy a car now because I need it now, I'll buy that laptop now because I need it now. There is no difference.

Can I ask you what exactly do you want out of the current decline? for houses to be affordable? Person A can afford a house, Person B cannot afford a house. Does that make houses unaffordable? No, it makes them unaffordable to person B. Its all circumstantial and every person is different.

You have obviously never heard of renting. Anyone who takes on a huge amount of debt who currently works in accounting,finance,construction,law,engineering etc. is quite frankly taking on some pretty big risks. It's their choice however and I admire their

stupidity

balls.

Freddie59 · 30-03-2009 1:43pm

cls wrote: »

The OP has stated it is more expensive for him to rent. He has also stated he needs his own house ASAP. This is a man in his 40's with a family. Clearly you do not get it.

Do not get what? That the man needs to pay well over the odds for a house? Even if rent costs him , say, €10k in a year and a house falls in price by €50k, then it is a no-brainer. Now do YOU get it?:D

Gurgle · 30-03-2009 5:33pm

CiaranC wrote: »

If they were looking to give themselves and their families a better quality of living, they would be better off holding out until prices dropped, surely?

If they can save another 100k over the life of their mortgage, that money can go on improving their quality of life over that period.

>>>If<<<
Theres all kinds of reasons people want to own their home. Some of those reasons can wait, some can't. I put the deposit down for mine a week after my oldest child was born.

Crash or no crash, we could afford the payments and it was where we wanted to settle down and raise our kids.

OF course, that was 1999 and the house cost £110,000.

It might sound laughable now but there were people telling us to hold off and wait for the housing bubble to burst.:rolleyes:

Blackjack · 30-03-2009 8:04pm

Gurgle wrote: »

>>>If<<<

OF course, that was 1999 and the house cost £110,000.

It might sound laughable now but there were people telling us to hold off and wait for the housing bubble to burst.:rolleyes:

While all persons circumstances are different, I can't see the sense of peope buying now when the price will be cheaper this time next year.

Plus, what was the average wage in 99?. It may be a case yet that the bubble will burst sufficiently further to mean that those people were right.....

Freddie59 · 30-03-2009 8:45pm

Blackjack wrote: »

If may be a case yet that the bubble will burst sufficiently further to mean that those people were right.....

:cool:

irish_bob · 30-03-2009 9:56pm

the rule of thumb for knowing the price of a house used to be , a house cost six times the average gdp , this jumped to nine times the average income at the peak of the property boom
since the average anual income in ireland will fall from around 38 k per year to well below 30 k in the next five years , you should be able to buy a house for around 150 k and that is assuming the old rule of thumb remains in place which is unlikely as the love affair with property even in ireland may have come to an end

you would be madder than a madman from madington as blackadder once said to buy right now

maninasia · 31-03-2009 3:50am

Gurgle wrote: »

>>>If<<<
Theres all kinds of reasons people want to own their home. Some of those reasons can wait, some can't. I put the deposit down for mine a week after my oldest child was born.

Crash or no crash, we could afford the payments and it was where we wanted to settle down and raise our kids.

OF course, that was 1999 and the house cost £110,000.

It might sound laughable now but there were people telling us to hold off and wait for the housing bubble to burst.:rolleyes:

Comparing apples and oranges. This post doesn't make any sense...there is a huge property crash ongoing along with an economic crash ... houses are still huge multiples of incomes... almost all trends negative for housing prices... hard to get loan, interest rates can only go higher, wage declines, unemployment, economic uncertainty, herd mentality and loss of confidence....
There are 10,000s of good places for rent now.

jmayo · 31-03-2009 7:13pm

TheCityManager wrote: »

I can't believe this topic is still going

Here's a FINAL question that could finally put this topic to bed (at last I hear many say :rolleyes:)

House being (maybe..) purchased for 280k, others in estate in much better condition going for (asking..) 365 - 420k....so what do all think mine could fall to in next year? (I say the next year as no way I will rent any longer .. need our own home asap..... ) (BTW the one in estate for 365k was sale agreed yesterday...)

Sorry for bringing the post back to the OP's quandry :rolleyes:
They may have been asking 365k - 420k and one of them may be sale agreed, but that does not mean they got their asking price or anywhere close.

You have to ask yourself how long they were on the market, how much did the asking price drop publicly in that time, how long has it been sale agreed, and how much has been the average house price drop been since they first went on the market.
I have seen a few instances where signs go sale agreed only to go back to for sale in few weeks.

Sorry but to me it appears you are looking for reasons to not buy, rather than reasons to buy which would imply to me you are very close to buying.
Just my opinion.

TheCityManager · 01-04-2009 9:23am

jmayo wrote: »

Sorry for bringing the post back to the OP's quandry :rolleyes:
They may have been asking 365k - 420k and one of them may be sale agreed, but that does not mean they got their asking price or anywhere close.

You have to ask yourself how long they were on the market, how much did the asking price drop publicly in that time, how long has it been sale agreed, and how much has been the average house price drop been since they first went on the market.
I have seen a few instances where signs go sale agreed only to go back to for sale in few weeks.

Sorry but to me it appears you are looking for reasons to not buy, rather than reasons to buy which would imply to me you are very close to buying.
Just my opinion.

House was up on market last autumn at 475k..was withdrawn around sept.

back up a few weeks ago at 395k, rapid drop to 375k, another rapid drop to 365k, sale agreed quite quickly after this...Id say they got close to asking price TBH..

Yes you are indeed correct...I have agreed to buy but really am unsure if I should withdraw or plough on..
Got house valued on monday ... valued at asking 380k and should get 340k...EA said if I didnt buy at 280k give him a buzz and he will buy it (EA has no interest in sale / purchase or otherwise......except maybe to try to keep prices inflated in the area ... :rolleyes:)

jmayo · 01-04-2009 10:24am

TheCityManager wrote: »

House was up on market last autumn at 475k..was withdrawn around sept.

back up a few weeks ago at 395k, rapid drop to 375k, another rapid drop to 365k, sale agreed quite quickly after this...Id say they got close to asking price TBH..

Yes you are indeed correct...I have agreed to buy but really am unsure if I should withdraw or plough on..
Got house valued on monday ... valued at asking 380k and should get 340k...EA said if I didnt buy at 280k give him a buzz and he will buy it (EA has no interest in sale / purchase or otherwise......except maybe to try to keep prices inflated in the area ... :rolleyes:)

Sounds like seller was getting desperate and needed to get out.
From initial point that house put up for sale the advertised asking price dropped by €110,000, that is 23% drop in around 6 months.
Note i saidf advertised asking price, you don'ty know if someone came in with offer of 350 and owner looked at the trend and decided to jump.
Again you said it was only Sale Agreed ?

Honestly I would not trust any EA, if they told me sun rose in the east and set in the west I would double check.
Values are decreasing everyday and IMHO will probably decrease more after budget.
Try and play a waiting game.
BTW does seller know you are sitting on enough cash to buy house without recourse to mortgage ?
Just hope that neither you nor missus ever let that cat out of the bag, even in a passing conversation with owner.

JuliusCaesar · 01-04-2009 7:47pm

TheCityManager wrote: »

Got house valued on monday ... valued at asking 380k and should get 340k...EA said if I didnt buy at 280k give him a buzz and he will buy it

don't understand this. The EA said you should ask for 380, but sell it at 340 (which is the real value) but your bottom line should be 280?

Does he know you're buying the house?

Totally agree with MrMayo; but they will generally give you the actual valuation if they think you're selling the house.

TheCityManager · 02-04-2009 9:15am

JuliusCaesar wrote: »

don't understand this. The EA said you should ask for 380, but sell it at 340 (which is the real value) but your bottom line should be 280?

Does he know you're buying the house?

Totally agree with MrMayo; but they will generally give you the actual valuation if they think you're selling the house.

I have agreed to buy house for 280k...simply got a valuation for my own sake and EA reckoned it would make 340k..I told him about my agreement at 280k and he remarked that if I didnt buy it he would cos I was getting it so cheap...

Still don't trust EAs though .. they are still trying to keep prices inflated...

Anyhow I'm letting this go ahead ...for now :-)

The_Conductor · 02-04-2009 9:24am

TheCityManager wrote: »

I have agreed to buy house for 280k...simply got a valuation for my own sake and EA reckoned it would make 340k..I told him about my agreement at 280k and he remarked that if I didnt buy it he would cos I was getting it so cheap...

Still don't trust EAs though .. they are still trying to keep prices inflated...

Anyhow I'm letting this go ahead ...for now :-)

Who did the valuation?
Is it an estate agent on your mortgage providers approved list of valuers?
Most mortgage lenders have done major trawls through their approved lists of valuers- because quite simply the valuations they were being presented with were utter and total bollox.
Unless the valuation is by an approved valuer (not necessarily an estate agent- but some of the bigger more reputable firms are still approved as valuers) it is not worth the paper it is written on.

A valuation of 380k is meaningless. If the property is successfully sold at 280k- that is the value of the property. If you go to sell it tomorrow- the value will have changed again. Its all subjective, and is entirely dependent on what a potential purchaser is willing to pay- not some notional sum that an estate agent is willing to pull from thin air.

Any of the major mortgage providers will have a list of approved valuers- if your valuation is not on the approved lists- it is worthless.

TheCityManager · 02-04-2009 9:31am

smccarrick wrote: »

Who did the valuation?
Is it an estate agent on your mortgage providers approved list of valuers?
Most mortgage lenders have done major trawls through their approved lists of valuers- because quite simply the valuations they were being presented with were utter and total bollox.
Unless the valuation is by an approved valuer (not necessarily an estate agent- but some of the bigger more reputable firms are still approved as valuers) it is not worth the paper it is written on.

A valuation of 380k is meaningless. If the property is successfully sold at 280k- that is the value of the property. If you go to sell it tomorrow- the value will have changed again. Its all subjective, and is entirely dependent on what a potential purchaser is willing to pay- not some notional sum that an estate agent is willing to pull from thin air.

Any of the major mortgage providers will have a list of approved valuers- if your valuation is not on the approved lists- it is worthless.

On approved list for lender :rolleyes:

The_Conductor · 02-04-2009 9:42am

TheCityManager wrote: »

On approved list for lender :rolleyes:

Why the sarcasm?
You'd be very surprised at the number of people who are quite happy to shell out EUR200 to any old estate agent. Whole chains of estate agents have been removed from approved lists- because lenders didn't trust their valuations.

Been waiting for prices to fall further..going to buy now..am I mad?

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