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November 2008 Forecast/Analysis

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    #32
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,647 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    i fear this is going to be another low scoring month for me:(

    by the way M.T. cranium in your predictions for this winter, did you mention a stormy period around the middle of December?


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    #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,345 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes I did say that ... a major storm around 12-13 December. I'm expecting it to be a mild event, strong SW to W winds, and colder periods to follow after a while, not right afterwards.

    Looks to me like any unforeseen retrogression in the next 5-10 days, and there could be a sudden blast of really cold air from the north. The current models have it grazing the UK and more or less missing Ireland, but they often fail to anticipate retrogression at 5-10 days out.


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    #34
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,647 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The temperature reached 11.4 on the 12th at the Claremorris station.


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    #35
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    nacho libre wrote: »
    The temperature reached 11.4 on the 12th at the Claremorris station.

    I think another high scoring month ahead for you Nacho. I can see the "Supercell Mcguire" cup holding pride of place around the splendour that is Mayo in 2009. :)


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    #36
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Quick glance at the stats up to and including the 15th:

    Overall Means:

    Overall Mean Temp: 8.0c (+0.9c)
    Overall Mean Max: 10.6c (+0.6c)
    Overall Mean Min: 5.5c (+1.3c)

    Overall Mean Rainfall: 57.7mm (57.9%)
    Overall Mean Windspeed: 9.5 knots (-1.2 knots)

    5 Station Means (Malin, Belmullet, Casement, Birr & Roaches Point)

    Wind Direction: 295.6 degrees (WNW)
    Mean Pressure: 1011.9 mb (0.0 mb)


    Pretty average month so far. Temps are now running above the November 1st to 30th mean, but are still a degree of so below average for the 1st to 15th period (linear), meaning that while temps are on the rise, we are still within a cool phase. Will it last??

    Wettest in the west so far, although all stations reporting average rainfall for the period (57%); coolest away from coastal fringes of the south and west.

    All very average really.... :(


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    #37
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Just done a quick rundown of the stats. Up to midnight 18th, we are still below average by 0.2c for the first 18 days of the month. This is expected to rise over the next couple of days though, with a possible stablisation by sunday or so.

    At 8.3c, the overall mean is running at 1.3c above the November 1st to 30th period, but so far, we are more or less bang on average. :)


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    #38
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    How is it lookin as we draw the 11th month to a close?


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    #39
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Danno wrote: »
    How is it lookin as we draw the 11th month to a close?

    Will check that out later Danno, things all over the place at the mo. But from a couple of days ago mean minima was 2.1c above normal while mean maxima was 0.8c above. Should see a small decrease hopefully by the end of the month. :)


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    #40
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,647 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Will check that out later Danno, things all over the place at the mo. But from a couple of days ago mean minima was 2.1c above normal while mean maxima was 0.8c above. Should see a small decrease hopefully by the end of the month. :)

    yes. hopefully it will finish up at around 7.7c:D


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    #41
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    We are now 0.8c above normal as of midnight last. While this is likely to fall over the next few days, November 08 is unlikely to finish in negative territory; more close to normal, which given the trend of the year so far, is quite notable. :)


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    #42
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Final Stats:

    1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.7c (Subject to confirmation by Met Eireann Data Tomorrow)
    2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 13.8c
    3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -5.2c
    4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 11.4c
    5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.8

    Other Stats:
    Overall Mean Max: 10.3c (+0.3c above normal)
    Overall Mean Min: 5.5c (1.3c above normal)

    Will do up a more detailed summary with graphs in a week or so on December thread as I am very overwhelmed with college assignments at the mo. But congrats to all who did well this month (I'll not mention any names :D:)).


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    #43
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Thanks for the quick summary. I got the Valentia one spot on!


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    #44
    Hal1
    Registered Users Posts: 8,720 ✭✭✭Hal1


    Dammit, a degree out on all of those stats. :o


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    #45
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Congrats nachos, any chance of the lotto numbers in a months time too.:eek::)


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    #46
    Mothman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Mothman


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 13.8c
    14.0C at Johnstown Castle on 15th.

    Also 15.1C at Roches Point on 16th, but afaik, Roches Point is excluded from this comp.


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    #47
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Mothman wrote: »
    14.0C at Johnstown Castle on 15th.

    Also 15.1C at Roches Point on 16th, but afaik, Roches Point is excluded from this comp.

    That is right. My figure was based on the 10 synoptic stations used as they are the only ones I logged data from regards temp, wind and rain.

    Just too amend also earlier Max/Min figures also:

    Final Overall Mean Max: 10.1c (+0.1c)
    Final Overall Mean Min: 5.3c (+1.1c)

    Earlier figures posted was figures up to 28th, as I didn't highlight last 2 days on Excel. Sorry about this. :(


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    #48
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,324 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Cheers Paddy.
    I'm going to do up the league stats tomorrow night (am working nights this week) and will post the updated league table on Wednesday morning.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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