November 2008 Forecast/Analysis

Deep Easterly

Out with the old, in with the new..

November 61-90 mean of the 10 main Met Eireann synoptic stations runs at 7.1°C

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 9.1c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.9c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -1.2c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 15.4c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +2.4c

Good luck all, and remember, this is not for fun, this is very, very serious.

nacho libre

after October's aberration, i predict a reasonably mild November

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.7
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 15.8c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -2.9c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 11.7c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) 1.2

M.T. Cranium

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 6.4 c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 15.7 c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -6.8c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 15.2 c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) - 1.1 c

Hal1

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 8 c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 14.9 c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -3.3c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 16.4 c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +1.8 c

arctictree

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 6.8c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 14.5 c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -3.0c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 14.4 c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) -0.4 c

Deep Easterly

Supercell, please ignore my first forecast as it seems a bit ambitious

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 8.0c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.8c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -2.9c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 14.1 c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +6c

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Supercell, please ignore my first forecast as it seems a bit ambitious

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 8.0c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.8c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -2.9c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 14.1 c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +6c

it's getting serious now:D

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

it's getting serious now:D

Yes, with me in I think 11th place, I really stand a good chance of grabbing the title come January. :pac:

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Yes, with me in I think 11th place, I really stand a good chance of grabbing the title come January. :pac:

three good months to go along with last months high score and anything is possible- certainly a top five finish is attainable. don't count yourself out just yet paddy1:)

squonk

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.1 c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 12.2 c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -2.2c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 13.4 c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) -0.5 c

Strasser

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 6.8 c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 14.6 c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -4.6c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 10.7 c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.4 c

rc28

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.8c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 15.5c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -4.5c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 13.8c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +1.5c

DOCARCH

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.0c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.6c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -3.9c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 13.7c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) -0.2c

gurramok

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 6.6c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 13.4c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -6.1c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 12.5c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) -0.8c

Snowbie

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.2 c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 15.5 c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -3.6c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 13.8 c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperature deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) + 0.9

Supercell

Almost forgot to do this!

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.4 c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.2°C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -3.1°C
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 12.9°C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperature deviation at Valentia (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) + 0.4°C

nilhg

On the basis that if your not in, you can't win...


1. What will be mean temperature in November? 8.6c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.9c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -3.3c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 14.8
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +1.2c

Danno

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.5c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 15.4c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -4.7
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 14.6c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.8c

Weather BOFH

1. What will be mean temperature in November?: 7.0C
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?: 15.3C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?: -4.2C
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th?: 11.8C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperature deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990): + 0.3C

kindredspirit

1. Mean temp. 6.8°C

2. Highest temp. 15.0°C

3. Lowest temp. -3.0°C

4. Claremorris. 13.5°C

5. Deviation at Valentia. -0.4°C

It's a good thing I don't bet on horses.

jd

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.2c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 15.4c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -4.8c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 12.8c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +.2c

Trogdor

12 minutes late
1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.8 c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.1°C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -2.3°C
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 13.7°C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperature deviation at Valentia (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) + 0.9°C

Deep Easterly

trogdor wrote: »

12 minutes late

Not good enough sham, if you are late, then your out of the race!

(Steamboat :pac:)

Supercell, my prediction of +6c deviation at Valentia was meant to be +0.6c, what in the name of God above was I thinking?

ch750536

Doh!

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.6 c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 15.9°C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -3.8°C
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 12.4°C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperature deviation at Valentia (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) + 0.2°C

Supercell

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not good enough sham, if you are late, then your out of the race!

(Steamboat :pac:)

Supercell, my prediction of +6c deviation at Valentia was meant to be +0.6c, what in the name of God above was I thinking?

I often wonder the same thing :pac::pac::D

Deep Easterly

Brief rundown of how October 2008 worked out weatherwise over the auld sod.

Overall Mean temp chart:



Remained and finished at below normal by 1.1c. A cool month in which the highest figure of 10.5c, which is actually the 61-90 average, was only reached on one day, the 13th.

Mean Max and Min charts for the main Met Eireann Synoptic Stations:



Individually and overall, both max and min means finished below normal, by as much as 2.0c at some stations.

Rainfall was above average at all stations:



In general it was a wet month in the south and west, while relatively drier over the north eastern half of the country.
Other station totals:
Knock: 193mm
Ballyhaise: 118mm
Oak Park: 96.6mm
Johnstown Castle: 175.3mm

Windwise:



Breezier than normal in general througout the month, but final mean finished just slight above normal by 1.2 knots.

Wind Direction:


Another westerly month..:(
Mean wind direction for the month as measured at Belmullet, Malin, Casement, Birr and Roaches Point finished just south of West.

Climatological overview of the Jan-Oct period of 2008, with 2007 included as compared to the 61-90 mean period:



Cooling trend which began mid Sept continued throughout October.

Temp Deviation for the period is running at 0.52c above the 61-90 norm, which is lower than the 1.02c D.F.A of 2007 for the same period.


Overall Mean rainfall for 2008 so far totals up to 1074.6 mm, which is 270mm more than the 61-90 expected. So a wet year to be sure.

I wonder how November will affect these figures down the line...

Danno

Excellent summary there Pat DE.

M.T. Cranium

I'm guessing that the highest temp at Claremorris 9-12th will be whatever it struggles up to on Wednesday, and that won't be much above 10 C.

Deep Easterly

Second go as all posted data ****ed up again when I pressed "post". If it fails again, I am declaring war and will readily drop 7 nuclear bombs, because I am just in the bloody mood...

Overall Mean: 7.2c Almost average
Overal Max: 10.0 (bang on average)
Overall Mean: 4.3c (bang on average almost)

Overall Rain: 45.2c (46% of average)

Pressure: 1008.1 mb which is 3.0 mb below normal, after a very high start to month.

Windspeeds are running at slightly below normal (-0.7 knots).

Average month so far, which equate to boring, normal, voidness, emptiness, nothing happening except cold rain showers that are depressing, cold and entirely devoid of interest except to wreak ones head. :mad:

Christ can't you give us something a bit more interesting, just for a change...

Supercell

Feckin windy so far this month (as usual for the time of year I suppose) but tis a colder wind than recent years I think, though still at the long term average.
I'd take an "average" January or February, those used to deliver at least to the higher ground.

I certainly remember looking to the mountains lustily as a lad thinking "if only I lived there"....
I was talking to one of the gardeners here the other day about winters past here and he said that it wasn't uncommon to have snow lasting a week or more here in the past which is a rarity these days. Indeed, he remembers Annamoe being totally cut off for a couple of weeks at a time in a few occasions with burst pipes and no power!!, I guess that might have been in the eighties..wouldn't mind that again! (I'm buying a little gas cooker and heater if thats forecast).
So "average" will do me for now!

Snowbie

Eric might take some pain away Pat

I remember this happening to you before alright. Is this the cause

nacho libre

i fear this is going to be another low scoring month for me:(

by the way M.T. cranium in your predictions for this winter, did you mention a stormy period around the middle of December?

M.T. Cranium

Yes I did say that ... a major storm around 12-13 December. I'm expecting it to be a mild event, strong SW to W winds, and colder periods to follow after a while, not right afterwards.

Looks to me like any unforeseen retrogression in the next 5-10 days, and there could be a sudden blast of really cold air from the north. The current models have it grazing the UK and more or less missing Ireland, but they often fail to anticipate retrogression at 5-10 days out.

nacho libre

The temperature reached 11.4 on the 12th at the Claremorris station.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

The temperature reached 11.4 on the 12th at the Claremorris station.

I think another high scoring month ahead for you Nacho. I can see the "Supercell Mcguire" cup holding pride of place around the splendour that is Mayo in 2009.

Deep Easterly

Quick glance at the stats up to and including the 15th:

Overall Means:

Overall Mean Temp: 8.0c (+0.9c)
Overall Mean Max: 10.6c (+0.6c)
Overall Mean Min: 5.5c (+1.3c)

Overall Mean Rainfall: 57.7mm (57.9%)
Overall Mean Windspeed: 9.5 knots (-1.2 knots)

5 Station Means (Malin, Belmullet, Casement, Birr & Roaches Point)

Wind Direction: 295.6 degrees (WNW)
Mean Pressure: 1011.9 mb (0.0 mb)


Pretty average month so far. Temps are now running above the November 1st to 30th mean, but are still a degree of so below average for the 1st to 15th period (linear), meaning that while temps are on the rise, we are still within a cool phase. Will it last??

Wettest in the west so far, although all stations reporting average rainfall for the period (57%); coolest away from coastal fringes of the south and west.

All very average really....

Deep Easterly

Just done a quick rundown of the stats. Up to midnight 18th, we are still below average by 0.2c for the first 18 days of the month. This is expected to rise over the next couple of days though, with a possible stablisation by sunday or so.

At 8.3c, the overall mean is running at 1.3c above the November 1st to 30th period, but so far, we are more or less bang on average.

Danno

How is it lookin as we draw the 11th month to a close?

Deep Easterly

Danno wrote: »

How is it lookin as we draw the 11th month to a close?

Will check that out later Danno, things all over the place at the mo. But from a couple of days ago mean minima was 2.1c above normal while mean maxima was 0.8c above. Should see a small decrease hopefully by the end of the month.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Will check that out later Danno, things all over the place at the mo. But from a couple of days ago mean minima was 2.1c above normal while mean maxima was 0.8c above. Should see a small decrease hopefully by the end of the month.

yes. hopefully it will finish up at around 7.7c:D

Deep Easterly

We are now 0.8c above normal as of midnight last. While this is likely to fall over the next few days, November 08 is unlikely to finish in negative territory; more close to normal, which given the trend of the year so far, is quite notable.

Deep Easterly

Final Stats:

1. What will be mean temperature in November? 7.7c (Subject to confirmation by Met Eireann Data Tomorrow)
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 13.8c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -5.2c
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Claremorris between and including the 9th the 12th? 11.4c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation at Valentia(°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.8

Other Stats:
Overall Mean Max: 10.3c (+0.3c above normal)
Overall Mean Min: 5.5c (1.3c above normal)

Will do up a more detailed summary with graphs in a week or so on December thread as I am very overwhelmed with college assignments at the mo. But congrats to all who did well this month (I'll not mention any names ).

Danno

Thanks for the quick summary. I got the Valentia one spot on!

Hal1

Dammit, a degree out on all of those stats.

Snowbie

Congrats nachos, any chance of the lotto numbers in a months time too.:eek::)

Mothman

Deep Easterly wrote: »

2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 13.8c

14.0C at Johnstown Castle on 15th.

Also 15.1C at Roches Point on 16th, but afaik, Roches Point is excluded from this comp.

Deep Easterly

Mothman wrote: »

14.0C at Johnstown Castle on 15th.

Also 15.1C at Roches Point on 16th, but afaik, Roches Point is excluded from this comp.

That is right. My figure was based on the 10 synoptic stations used as they are the only ones I logged data from regards temp, wind and rain.

Just too amend also earlier Max/Min figures also:

Final Overall Mean Max: 10.1c (+0.1c)
Final Overall Mean Min: 5.3c (+1.1c)

Earlier figures posted was figures up to 28th, as I didn't highlight last 2 days on Excel. Sorry about this.

Supercell

Cheers Paddy.
I'm going to do up the league stats tomorrow night (am working nights this week) and will post the updated league table on Wednesday morning.