Bet of the weekend

myflipflops

A very rare tip but this is too good not to share.

Back Gete Wami to win the Great North Run tomorrow @ 4/1 with Boyles.
Berlin Champion, New York runner up, runner up in London (after a fall at a water station) and dropped out of Beijing when her medal shot was gone to conserve energy for this.


She's easily the class of the field and i make the price about 8/13. The 1/5 favourite (Tulu) should be about 8/1 or so.

thedini

pwhite587 wrote: »

A very rare tip but this is too good not to share.

Back Gete Wami to win the Great North Run tomorrow @ 4/1 with Boyles.
Berlin Champion, New York runner up, runner up in London (after a fall at a water station) and dropped out of Beijing when her medal shot was gone to conserve energy for this.


She's easily the class of the field and i make the price about 8/13. The 1/5 favourite (Tulu) should be about 8/1 or so.

LOL-u reckon a 1/5 shot should be 8/1. I would love to be your bookie

myflipflops

thedini wrote: »

LOL-u reckon a 1/5 shot should be 8/1. I would love to be your bookie

I'm guessing that i'm your bookie as oppossed to the other way around.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPORTS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=22&ev_type_id=10486&ev_oc_grp_ids=87289&bir_index=

thedini

pwhite587 wrote: »

I'm guessing that i'm your bookie as oppossed to the other way around.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPORTS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=22&ev_type_id=10486&ev_oc_grp_ids=87289&bir_index=

stop talking rubbish how can u possibly believe what u are saying 1/5 should be 8/1 get a life

S.M.B.

Looking good at the moment.

Fairplay

Xavi6

thedini wrote: »

stop talking rubbish how can u possibly believe what u are saying 1/5 should be 8/1 get a life

Less of that thanks.

And it's 'you', not 'u'.

myflipflops

thedini wrote: »

stop talking rubbish how can u possibly believe what u are saying 1/5 should be 8/1 get a life

Are you just trolling? You haven't given me any reasoning against my tip.

Athletics is a sport i follow extremely closely, the way others follow the Premier League. Boylesports pricing of this event is just outrageously wrong in my opinion. Having a 1/4 (as it is now) favorite in a half marathon race like this is wrong in almost any situation. When that favorite is a 37 year old whose only race of note this year has been a 2nd place in the Madrid marathon in a relatively slow 2 hours 36 minutes, i think it's even more wrong.



Here's a link from the IAAF site stating who they think is the favorite.

http://www.iaaf.org/WHM08/news/kind=100/newsid=47914.html

dotsflan

i in no way am interested in athletics so excuse my ignorance but i was wondering if there was any other strong contenders to consider because if not then it might be worth backing the two women one with boyles and the other with PP

myflipflops

dotsflan wrote: »

i in no way am interested in athletics so excuse my ignorance but i was wondering if there was any other strong contenders to consider because if not then it might be worth backing the two women one with boyles and the other with PP

Yeah, there are other in with a chance. Jo Pavey is the home favorite and on top from is in with a shout and Martha Komu ran a good race in the Olympic marathon too.

With regard to Wami, if every athlete in the race ran to their current ability, she would win quite comfortably.

PIMPHO

Down to 3/1 with Boyles now. Pity you can't back it E/W?!

dotsflan

ah sure i think ill stick a few quid on the two of them for a bit of an interest. won a few bob on the football so ive cash to play with:pac:

Trampas

Gete Wami
4 - 7
Martha Komu
11 - 2
Benita Johsnon
8 - 1
Jo Pavey
9 - 1
Deratu Tulu
9 - 1

With paddy's

Tulu, D 1/4
Wami, G 3/1
Johnson, B 16/1
Komu, Martha 16/1
Kidane, W 16/1
Pavey, J 33/1

Boyles

Crazy differences in prices

ArmaniJeanss

No Betfair market on this afaics. Amazing how the bad the bookies are at pricing up stuff when they don't have a betfair guide.

Great spot OP.

Collie D

Now I've as much knowledge of women's long distance running as I do of nuclear physics so I wouldn't know which bookie has got it wrong (one of them obvioulsy does).

Any chance this could come under the blatant error rule, OP? Wouldn't be the first time Boyles have messed up odds. Had a darts bet voided by them a few months ago that was obvioulsy priced wrong. Luckily enough it lost and saved myself three hundred quid If this is Boylesoprts' actual opinion then that's a great shout. Hope it comes in for you.

Lay off the OP, dini. This is what this forum is for. People who have a good knowledge of a prticular sport/betting on that sport sharing their wisdom.

Out of interest, I had a quick look at Betfair but couldn't find any Athletics markets, nevermind the Great North Run

opr

Collie D wrote: »

.

Any chance this could come under the blatant error rule, OP? Wouldn't be the first time Boyles have messed up odds. Had a darts bet voided by them a few months ago that was obvioulsy priced wrong.

Thing is surely the can only do this before the bet runs ? Other wise will they still cancel it after the event if the bet loses ? But they are bound to notice it if money starts going on heavy. So i pm'ed the op too see if we can get anything done about this thread *Cough* *cough*

Opr

Collie D

opr wrote: »

Thing is surely the can only do this before the bet runs ? Other wise will they still cancel it after the event if the bet loses ? But they are bound to notice it if money starts going on heavy. So i pm'ed the op too see if we can get anything done about this thread *Cough* *cough*

Opr

I'm not quite sure but think they can still void it after the fact although I'm not entirely certain. For my darts bet they cancelled before it started but I half epected it to be honest. Knew it was too good to be true that time. Think I actually PMed you that one. Maybe that's why it was voided, you must have lumped on and set alarms ringing

myflipflops

Collie D wrote: »

Any chance this could come under the blatant error rule, OP? Wouldn't be the first time Boyles have messed up odds. Had a darts bet voided by them a few months ago that was obvioulsy priced wrong. Luckily enough it lost and saved myself three hundred quid If this is Boylesoprts' actual opinion then that's a great shout. Hope it comes in for you.

Out of interest, I had a quick look at Betfair but couldn't find any Athletics markets, nevermind the Great North Run

I backed the selection yesterday onlne and today in a shop at 4/1. After this they cut it to 3/1. With this timeline (and i have screen shots/bet receipts as proof) it means that somebody in Boyles had a look at the market, were happy the prices were in the right way around and changed the price a bit (into 3/1). As such, they can't claim a blatant price error. If they attempted to void it, i'd just go to IBAS and it would be re-instated. I have threatened Boyles with IBAS on 2 occasions this year and both times they re-settled in my favour without an arguement.

With regard to Betfair and other markets, it's a joke that none exist. I'm not that bothered about Betfair as even if they put up the event, there would be no liquidity there. What gets me is that this is a live sporting event on the BBC and no Engllish company has priced it. Bascially, they run scared from this kind of thing. That's why there is huge price discrepancy - there is no market line for the weaker/lazier bookies to copy.

ArmaniJeanss

I think that you can take the fact that they have cut the price from 4/1 to 3/1 as an indication that the original price was correct, and that they will not bring palpable error into play.

If they had closed the market and reopened with the fav oddson then you could probably expect palpable error on the bigger prices.

opr

Collie D wrote: »

I'm not quite sure but think they can still void it after the fact although I'm not entirely certain. For my darts bet they cancelled before it started but I half epected it to be honest. Knew it was too good to be true that time. Think I actually PMed you that one. Maybe that's why it was voided, you must have lumped on and set alarms ringing

lol , na wasn't me that you pm'ed on the dart bet. I only managed to get 80 squid on this one as their online automatic risk control said thats your lot and no more

Still nice if it comes in.

Opr

opr

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I think that you can take the fact that they have cut the price from 4/1 to 3/1 as an indication that the original price was correct, and that they will not bring palpable error into play.

If they had closed the market and reopened with the fav oddson then you could probably expect palpable error on the bigger prices.

See the thing is the trader at this time of night would probably know very little about the market. He would probably have looked at it seen a bit of money going on and just cut the price to reflect this. (This could even be an automated thing) If someone tommorow with a bit more knowledge about the market is asked to look at it thats when the golden goose is cooked.

Opr

opr

pwhite587 wrote: »

I backed the selection yesterday onlne and today in a shop at 4/1. After this they cut it to 3/1. With this timeline (and i have screen shots/bet receipts as proof) it means that somebody in Boyles had a look at the market, were happy the prices were in the right way around and changed the price a bit (into 3/1). As such, they can't claim a blatant price error. If they attempted to void it, i'd just go to IBAS and it would be re-instated. I have threatened Boyles with IBAS on 2 occasions this year and both times they re-settled in my favour without an arguement.

With regard to Betfair and other markets, it's a joke that none exist. I'm not that bothered about Betfair as even if they put up the event, there would be no liquidity there. What gets me is that this is a live sporting event on the BBC and no Engllish company has priced it. Bascially, they run scared from this kind of thing. That's why there is huge price discrepancy - there is no market line for the weaker/lazier bookies to copy.

Nice one if thats the case

Opr

myflipflops

opr wrote: »

See the thing is the trader at this time of night would probably know very little about the market. He would probably have looked at it seen a bit of money going on and just cut the price to reflect this. (This could even be an automated thing) If someone tommorow with a bit more knowledge about the market is asked to look at it thats when the golden goose is cooked.

Opr

Absolutely not - the rules don't cater for poor risk managers/traders. I see they've now cut the 3/1 to 5/2. It won't get voided. If it does, i'll cause a fuss.

Collie D

Seems a fair point that if they're only cutting it by half a point or so at a time that they're happy enough and just adjusting the price according to the weight of money.

thedini

pwhite587 wrote: »

A very rare tip but this is too good not to share.

Back Gete Wami to win the Great North Run tomorrow @ 4/1 with Boyles.
Berlin Champion, New York runner up, runner up in London (after a fall at a water station) and dropped out of Beijing when her medal shot was gone to conserve energy for this.


She's easily the class of the field and i make the price about 8/13. The 1/5 favourite (Tulu) should be about 8/1 or so.

apologies pwhite,you never mentioned different bookies so i misunderstood you.

myflipflops

Wami was cut overnight to 7/4 without pushing the favorite from 1/3. Tha's 111% margin for the first 2 runners in a 10/12 runner race. Unbelievable stuff. I was giving Boyles plenty of credit for pricing this up themselves and putting it on site but at this margin, they lose most of that credit.

myflipflops

Just as i write that, it's now 4/6 Wami and 6/4 Tulu before the start.

Bobeagleburger

tulu now 9/1

mike65

Wami wins

Mike

dotsflan

fair play p white got her at 3/1 yesterday evening, did anyone back her in running? seen 6/1 for her at one stage

myflipflops

Looked iffy enough in running at one stage. I'm guessing Wami had a bit more in the tank but a 68 minute half marathon is good going. I've never heard of the Kenyan before today and that was over 3 minutes she knocked off her PB there. Very enjoyable race. I'm off to the pub.

punchestown

Theyll be cutting back on the custard creams in the shops after this disaster.