Buying in a falling market

Joseph Kuhr

I may be alone in my opinion here on boards but out there in the real world its a different story:

Irish Independent 26/08/08 wrote:

AIB said yesterday that although mortgage lending in the Republic was lower this year than in 2007, it saw a pickup in demand in the second quarter, compared to the first three months of the year. It said that there had been a 15pc increase in mortgage approvals quarter-on-quarter, and a 30pc rise in the number of mortgages drawn down by its customers.

mmmm....must be a lot of stupid people out there buying in a declining market

Oafley Jones

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

I may be alone in my opinion here on boards but out there in the real world its a different story:



mmmm....must be a lot of stupid people out there buying in a declining market

Any idea what the increase is like in the context of yoy? Anyone got trends regarding quarterly mortgage approvals? I've got to imagine that demand would be lower in first quarter anyway - even at the height of the boom.

Joseph Kuhr

Oafley Jones wrote: »

Any idea what the increase is like in the context of yoy? Anyone got trends regarding quarterly mortgage approvals? I've got to imagine that demand would be lower in first quarter anyway - even at the height of the boom.

Yes apparently some people prefer to wait for the summer months. I'm not suggesting that this quarter on quarter comparison shows things are on the mend. However an increase is an increase. But more to the point, it shows people are buying.

SkepticOne

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

Yes apparently some people prefer to wait for the summer months. I'm not suggesting that this quarter on quarter comparison shows things are on the mend. However an increase is an increase. But more to the point, it shows people are buying.

This is a good point. There's always some people buying.

You often hear people saying they just can't get their house to sell. Not true. You just need to price it realistically to attract those buyers still in the market.

A big problem I think is the lack of transparency in the market. Where is the official inventory figure? Where are the transactions that can be used to generate an objective index and volume information? The lack of this info is hurting sellers as it can take months for them to realise their house will not sell at the existing asking price.

jackal

Quick everyone, buy NOW before house prices get cheaper! Keep property investors in the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed!

Your shilling is pretty pathetic Joeseph. Yes there will always be some movement in the market. But here is the problem. A trader-upper needs someone to buy their overpriced shoebox from them. At some point in a typical chain (the majority of transactions) the chain goes all the way back to a First Time Buyer.

FTB's are in a winning position. They are currently renting, and have both great choice, and negotiating power for the first time in ages. In the meantime they are sitting watching prices get lower and saving their deposit, meaning when they do eventually buy, they will benefit from:

* Borrowing a lower capital sum
* Getting more house in a better location
* Benefiting from favourable LTV rates
* Insulating themselves from Negative Equity due to LTV


Thats if things keep going as they do - i.e. a long, drawn out downturn. In addition to this there is always these benefits if a sudden sharp correction occurs:

* Not being tied into servicing a huge mortgage in a time of great economic uncertainty
* Freedom to emigrate if it all goes tits up
* Not owing 400k for a house thats worth 200k
* Avail of any government bail-out, possibly in the guise of Affordable Housing being ramped up.

The only thing these FTB's have to worry about is as pointed out above, the market turning. However, it has to be said it is highly highly unlikely that we will see a return to the boom-type house price increases as seen over the last decade. So even if the market turns, they will have plenty of time to choose and let things settle. 18 months supply on the market at present.

Apart from some edge cases Joe, buying in a falling market is an absolute mugs game. The lifeblood of the property market is the FTB, without them, the market will slowly boil off the bubble froth.

Oafley Jones

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

Yes apparently some people prefer to wait for the summer months. I'm not suggesting that this quarter on quarter comparison shows things are on the mend. However an increase is an increase. But more to the point, it shows people are buying.

And a decrease is a decrease. Banks are just cherry picking the data to put a positive spin on things. From the same article-

Just over 35,000 new mortgages worth a total of €7.5bn were advanced in the second quarter of the year, compared with 41,000 mortgages worth €8.7bn in the same period last year.


As regard inventory, this is taken from Goodbody-

As of last Friday, there were c.55,500 second-hand homes advertised for sale on the Daft.ie property website. Based on our forecasts for mortgage transactions and making an assumption on the number of homes which are purchased without the need for a mortgage, we calculate that this amounts to some 18 months of supply on current transaction trends. Clearly, to reduce this stock, further price declines are needed (with more extensive reductions in the areas with the most acute oversupply issues).

Joseph Kuhr

Like I've said jackal, we've heard it all before. There's thousands of pages here on boards. Thanks for the regurgitation but please take it to another thread.

Not to ignore the rest of your post, I'd just like to highlight two things:

jackal wrote: »

Yes there will always be some movement in the market.

Bravo....round of applause....slowly but surely sinking in. And this thread is for them.

The second being you are only referring to one type of buyer, the FTB.

Actually make that 3 points, the 3rd being you have clearly not read through the thread as whether or not its good for an FTB to buy now is not the topic of conversation....I think boards has bored enough people to death with that one.

Joseph Kuhr

Oafley Jones wrote: »

And a decrease is a decrease. Banks are just cherry picking the data to put a positive spin on things. From the same article-

Just over 35,000 new mortgages worth a total of €7.5bn were advanced in the second quarter of the year, compared with 41,000 mortgages worth €8.7bn in the same period last year.


As regard inventory, this is taken from Goodbody-

As of last Friday, there were c.55,500 second-hand homes advertised for sale on the Daft.ie property website. Based on our forecasts for mortgage transactions and making an assumption on the number of homes which are purchased without the need for a mortgage, we calculate that this amounts to some 18 months of supply on current transaction trends. Clearly, to reduce this stock, further price declines are needed (with more extensive reductions in the areas with the most acute oversupply issues).

I don't doubt your statistics one bit (I won't even highlight the assumptions). Call it what you will, knock it however you want...facts are facts and a quarter on quarter increase is an increase no matter how much shyte you tarnish it with.

Oafley Jones

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

I don't doubt your statistics one bit. Call it what you will, knock it however you want...facts are facts and a quarter on quarter increase is an increase no matter how much shyte you tarnish it with.

Getting a bit vitriolic there Joseph. The shyte you refer to is from the article you referenced. A qoq increase tells us nothing, for example if they sold mortgages for 50 homes in the first quater next year and 100 in the second it would still represent an increase. What's more relevant is the trend for yoy.

Joseph Kuhr

Oafley Jones wrote: »

Getting a bit vitriolic there Joseph. The shyte you refer to is from the article you referenced. A qoq increase tells us nothing, for example if they sold mortgages for 50 homes in the first quater next year and 100 in the second it would still represent an increase. What's more relevant is the trend for yoy.

Oafley Jones wrote: »

As regard inventory, this is taken from Goodbody-

I linked and quoted the Irish Independent. I'm not going to get into an argument over whether an increase is relevant or not. It flys in the face of what everyone on here is saying. That the market is dead and nobody is stupid enough to buy in a declining market or that FTBs have some kind of magical hold over the rest of us.

The purpose of this thread is to get some real advice on boards. for those who are moving, for whatever reason that may be. If you've nothing to contribute then please GTFO and go and massage each other ego's somewhere else.

One of your main contributors here on Accommodation and Property has never even bought a home LOL. Oh some spotty faced FTB says I'm stupid to buy in a declining market....we better call the estate agent and call the whole thing off....pathetic.

Oafley Jones

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

I linked and quoted the Irish Independent. I'm not going to get into an argument over whether an increase is relevant or not. It flys in the face of what everyone on here is saying. That the market is dead and nobody is stupid enough to buy in a declining market or that FTBs have some kind of magical hold over the rest of us.

You seem to equate dead with ZERO sales, as evidenced by your 'round of applause' response to jackal - that's just bizarre. Of course there is going to be some sales. Of couse Jackal knew this, to suppose otherwise would be daft(see what I did there). If the country was hit with famine, pestulance and war I'm sure there would still be some sales.

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

The purpose of this thread is to get some real advice on boards. for those who are moving, for whatever reason that may be. If you've nothing to contribute then please GTFO and go and massage each other ego's somewhere else.

Would that be real advice like that offered by Austin Hughes or Dan Mclaughlin? What did I say about vitriol.

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

One of your main contributors here on Accommodation and Property has never even bought a home LOL. Oh some spotty faced FTB says I'm stupid to buy in a declining market....we better call the estate agent and call the whole thing off....pathetic.

Doing yourself and your message no favours there Joseph.

Joseph Kuhr

Oafley Jones wrote: »

Doing yourself and your message no favours there Joseph.

And whats my message? Whats the topic of the thread Oafley Jones? I mean the real topic before it got hijacked by those with alterior motives? In fact the more I think about it - Mods, please just close the thread. Anyone with an ounce of sense will not come to boards.ie looking for advice on the property market. Once you sift through the egotistical drivel theres really not a lot of content there.

gurramok

Yes they would, they can see bullish propaganda when they see it.

I notice you left out top-up mortgages and re-mortgages in your figures and insinuated every mortgage buyer were actually buying homes when they are not.

As was said, there are people still buying, i know 2 houses that sold recently. Its the levels of activity of transactions that have seriously dropped on previous years as per IBF stats.

You attitude here wins no favours and yes most of us here are in the real world and knows what goes on on the ground.

Joseph Kuhr

gurramok wrote: »

As was said, there are people still buying, i know 2 houses that sold recently.

Round of applause to you too gurramok. Like I said, whats the topic of the thread? Before you and others came along and trolled it to death that is? Level of activty has nothing to do with the topic of the thread. Go back and have a read. Actually get someone else to have a read and explain it to you because you seem to have a mental block.

Oafley Jones

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

Round of applause to you too gurramok. Like I said, whats the topic of the thread? Before you and others came along and trolled it to death that is? Level of activty has nothing to do with the topic of the thread. Go back and have a read. Actually get someone else to have a read and explain it to you because you seem to have a mental block.

Are you honestly suggesting that the level of activity has no baring on those buying?

Oafley Jones

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

Save yourself a headache and don't bother reading this thread. The Acommodation and Property troll brigade have struck again. You'll find nothing discussed here other than the usual egotistical drivel spouted by people with alterior motives, some of which have been exposed - they've never even bought property before.

In fact, I can save you a whole lot of trouble. You needn't bother reading any of the threads on here, let me sum up boards.ie Accommodation and Property for you in one paragraph:

"anyone who buys a house now is a complete moron because prices need to drop so that I can continue with my self indulgent lifestyle and buy a 3 bedroom semi-d slap bang beside the city centre without having to get up off my lazy arse and work for it"


For those of you looking for proper advice other than "don't buy", have a look at this and this.

Some good advice on how to get the best deal in a falling market and why for some now could be the time to buy.

So where does everyone think Joseph is?

jackal

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

"anyone who buys a house now is a complete moron because prices need to drop so that I can continue with my self indulgent lifestyle and buy a 3 bedroom semi-d slap bang beside the city centre without having to get up off my lazy arse and work for it"

Sounds like a winning platform for government Joe. Can I haz normal house for normal moneyz plz? 8-/

You make it sound like a 3 bed semi-d close to the city is something that only the great and the good can aspire to...? Rather than an average family home.

gurramok

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

Round of applause to you too gurramok. Like I said, whats the topic of the thread? Before you and others came along and trolled it to death that is? Level of activty has nothing to do with the topic of the thread. Go back and have a read. Actually get someone else to have a read and explain it to you because you seem to have a mental block.

Serious accussation there of trolling.

Yes the topic is 'buying in a falling market'. You applaused at my reporting of 2 houses sold, thats a level of activity recorded and is vital to the topic.

Ryaller

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

The purpose of this thread is to get some real advice on boards. for those who are moving, for whatever reason that may be.

Have you found any?

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

One of your main contributors here on Accommodation and Property has never even bought a home LOL. Oh some spotty faced FTB says I'm stupid to buy in a declining market....we better call the estate agent and call the whole thing off....pathetic.

Joseph, I sense another change of identity coming on...

The_Conductor

Back on topic everyone.
Anyone personally abusing other posters will be banned.
The rule is- if you disagree with a post- refute the post, but do not attack the poster.

Regards,

SMcCarrick

Theboinkmaster

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

Save yourself a headache and don't bother reading this thread. The Acommodation and Property troll brigade have struck again. You'll find nothing discussed here other than the usual egotistical drivel spouted by people with alterior motives, some of which have been exposed - they've never even bought property before.

In fact, I can save you a whole lot of trouble. You needn't bother reading any of the threads on here, let me sum up boards.ie Accommodation and Property for you in one paragraph:

"anyone who buys a house now is a complete moron because prices need to drop so that I can continue with my self indulgent lifestyle and buy a 3 bedroom semi-d slap bang beside the city centre without having to get up off my lazy arse and work for it"


For those of you looking for proper advice other than "don't buy", have a look at this and this.

Some good advice on how to get the best deal in a falling market and why for some now could be the time to buy.

Completely disagree - seems you are extremely biased and have a vested interest in talking up the market. You obviously bought at the top of the market and are now in negative equity, hoping a few posts on here will revive the market?! Or do you work for a property developer, bank or estate agent?

The market is crashing.

The crash is a good thing and long overdue.

If you bought a 2 bed south dub apartment for €550k in 2006 it will probably fall by about €200k over the next 2 years, get over it.

Ireland is not immune from basic economics - prices will fall back in line with salaries which means hundreds of thousands of €€€ drops, then should only rise with inflation

It's good for our economy that is happens ASAP

ps what's alterior :D

punchestown

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Completely disagree - seems you are extremely biased and have a vested interest in talking up the market. You obviously bought at the top of the market and are now in negative equity, hoping a few posts on here will revive the market?! Or do you work for a property developer, bank or estate agent?

Joseph has already confirmed on a seperate thread that he is a vested interest. He claimed to have his own house and a seperate second property for investment for his kids. To my eyes he has more snouts in the trough than that. Sadly for him the trough is now empty and shows no sign of being refilled. He has clearly bought at the top of the tree(how many properties is anybodys guess) and he has been left hanging. I asked him on a seperate thread to refrain from his blatant ramping and to report back in 12 months time and we can see the lay of the land then. I would advise people to avoid getting caught up with his petty arguments and misguided comment and let the market play out its due course.

astrofool

All I can see here is both sides making petty snipes at each other, without much debate going on (the last few posts anyway).

The one thing we do know is that virtually no one on here will actually call the market correctly.

punchestown

astrofool wrote: »

All I can see here is both sides making petty snipes at each other, without much debate going on (the last few posts anyway).

The one thing we do know is that virtually no one on here will actually call the market correctly.

Only time will tell who was closest to the mark! We are going round in circles, throwing figures at each other, second guessing how the crash will play out. (we are in crash mode now, arent we? or are we still under the impression that its a soft landing?) I am happy to come back in a years time and say well done to the person(s) who called it right and if I was so wrong to apologise for my poor foresight. I would rather that than come back here daily refuting the posts of Joseph Kueller and his cronies (the vested interests) and going over the tired old ground day in day out.

Firetrap

I also know that the number of people reading this thread on boards isn't going to change the property market out there

gurramok

Bears have called the market here correctly since it went downward style in 2006, this is a fact for any bull to search on boards..hint hint

SimpleSam06

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

LOL classic . you've more posts than me therefore your opinion supercedes mine. I've been around here a long time SimpleSam06 under various guises and yes I've been on here dicussing things even before the crash....not that it matters.

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

I've got nothing to prove gurramok. Like I said, this post count snobbery is a bit pathetic.

You said property discussions on boards lacked detail. I responded by pointing out that there had been tens of thousands of posts spread over myriad talmudic discussions for many years, chewing over and debating every aspect of property in Ireland in excruciating detail, backed up by facts and figures enough to write definitive peer-reviewable volumes on the topic. I also pointed out that you weren't around then, as evidenced by your comment, which as usual, evaded the facts left right and centre. Its got nothing to do with postcount.

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

The generalised broad sweep that nobody should buy in a declining market is simply bad advice.

And you have yet to provide a single solid reason why this might be the case, other than you have something to sell and no one wants to buy it.

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

I may be alone in my opinion here on boards but out there in the real world its a different story:

Wow, a newspaper article trying to push property. Never seen that before.

Joseph Kuhr wrote: »

Bravo....round of applause....slowly but surely sinking in. And this thread is for them.

No, this thread is for you to start your very own real estate agency. Good luck with that.

punchestown wrote:

I would rather that than come back here daily refuting the posts of Joseph Kueller and his cronies (the vested interests) and going over the tired old ground day in day out.

Ah cmon, all we need is Pa El Grande and Sizzler to step back in and its 2006 all over again! Ah the memories...

The_Conductor

SimpleSam06- Joseph will not be responding to you on this thread. He is taking a sabatical from this forum for personal abuse.

Regards,

SMcCarrick

astrofool

gurramok wrote: »

Bears have called the market here correctly since it went downward style in 2006, this is a fact for any bull to search on boards..hint hint

But bears had also been wrong for the previous 5 years.

When it comes to property, I'd argue that everyone is a vested interest, unless you're happy living on a park bench.

You're either in a home of your own, are looking to buy a home, renting a home or looking to rent a home. The market going up and down is going to effect everyone. And thats without talking about people who have invested in property, long or short term.

SimpleSam06

astrofool wrote: »

But bears had also been wrong for the previous 5 years.

No, they were right. That most people ignored their advice and landed us in the greatest financial collapse ever seen by the state is not the fault of the bears.

astrofool wrote: »

When it comes to property, I'd argue that everyone is a vested interest, unless you're happy living on a park bench.

Yes, but there is a difference between those interested in maintaining an increasingly toxic environment to the benefit of a few, with disastrous consequences for the economy and the entire country, in the name of greed, and those arguing on the side of a house as a home, decent, good value living conditions for everyone, and a situation where you don't need to work the rest of your natural life just to put a roof over your head, to the benefit of all.

That is why "vested interest" is such a dirty word around here, as it has come to represent the former.