WRC North Has Been Shelved

markf909

Carawaystick wrote: »

I thought Macnamara pulled the rug from under PPP's feet for those who still believed in that auld private sector risk guff.


I guess this explains why the PPP part of the N8 wil be the last part completed
" And also, importantly, in a national context, the injection of private finance will accelerate the delivery of the public capital programme."[1]

[1]http://www.nra.ie/PublicPrivatePartnership/

Actually very good point!
Who has the (€6bn estimated) in readies to stump up for this up front.

Will the company who wins the tender be charging the govt even more given that our govt will be seen as a higher risk client with all the borrowing that will have to be made for day to day spending?

Sponge Bob

markf909 wrote: »

Actually very good point!
Who has the (€6bn estimated) in readies to stump up for this up front.

Will the company who wins the tender be charging the govt even more given that our govt will be seen as a higher risk client with all the borrowing that will have to be made for day to day spending?

Sigh , I did try to explain the subtlety of the sequencing here

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=56352330&postcount=42

What I was told was that the interconnector will be built above MN in Stephens Green and that the Interconnector has to be fast tracked becuase of disruption to Pearce and Connolly stations and to Heuston to a lesser degree.

MN can be completed at a more leisurely pace because it will only interface with the interconnector HOWEVER Pearce and Connolly disruption may not under ANY circumstances be allowed to last more than 3 years and that ONLY during the intensive phase envisaged as 2012-2014 .

All MN tunnelling in Stephens Green must be completed in 2013 and the low level halls in Stephens Green must be structurally complete by 2014 latest .

This then has a bearing on an ongoing turf war between CIE and the RPA as to who 'controls' the Stephens Green schedule and station , ( aka the Battle of Broadstone in another guise ) and CIE have seemingly won that battle because Pearce and Connolly must be finished by end 2014 and the RPA cannot _guarantee that_ , only CIE can it seems .

Once Transport and Finance conceded CIE would have to run the Interconnector project and the Stephens Green construction plan they immediately cut the crap out of everything else, nationwide , in preparation for the inevitable cockups and oversights and overruns now they themselves left CIE in charge of things .

Only a loon would let a PPP consortium AND CIE build simultaneously on a single site , willy nilly , and then blame each other for all the inevitable 'engineered' delays that would happen .

Many delicate discussions lie ahead to ensure that they will indeed co-exist happily as one would think they should.

Victor

markf909 wrote: »

Actually very good point! Who has the (€6bn estimated) in readies to stump up for this up front.

They only need €1-2bn in readies.

Will the company who wins the tender be charging the govt even more given that our govt will be seen as a higher risk client with all the borrowing that will have to be made for day to day spending?

They will charge more because governments can borrow cheaper than banks. The flip side is that the government wants to string out payment and encourage the PPP partner to uphold their end of the bargain. However, one solution would be for the government to say "We will pay you €X one year after the start of public operations and €Y when a certain level of service is achieved", where X and Y are each a few hundred million. It keeps the PPPp in check, while reducing overall cost.

Sponge Bob

all very well Victor but MN runs under the most expensive retail real estate in Europe, Grafton St.

Any whiff of compo for 'lost business' will be a serious matter for which a contingency will of course have to be made.

The land purchase prior to the dig is also a matter for government and delaying just a year or two on MN could well bring a dividend in that respect too.

And of course Finance are seriously worried about claims caused by Stephens Green station turf wars and the potential issues between two separate contractors leading to compo claims .

Finally PPP tenders are high with the credit crunch which will eventually ease but it could take a year or two.

No rush to finalise the MN contract right now, none at all .

DWCommuter

Im a negative ****er, but Im getting very sceptical about this type of negativity. Metro North after Interconnector? Can't see it myself.

ofjames

DWCommuter wrote: »

Im a negative ****er, but Im getting very sceptical about this type of negativity. Metro North after Interconnector? Can't see it myself.

i'd have to agree with you derek. The reasoning for it given by Sponge Bob seems flawed to me anyway.

In all the literature I've seen surrounding the interconnector, it has been said that the DART tunnell will need to be deeper than the metro north one due to the fact it's a heavy rail line as opposed to light rail.

Assuming that is the case, surely if the logic Sponge Bob does apply at Government, it will be Metro North first in 2015, then the interconnector (hopefully) in 2017???

I'd be quite happy to see the interconnector delivered first mind!

popebenny16

DWCommuter wrote: »

Im a negative ****er, but Im getting very sceptical about this type of negativity. Metro North after Interconnector? Can't see it myself.

Well, you have two posters getting info from Department of Finance, not Transport. It is up to that Department to tell Finance that their logis is wrong and that doing it in this fashion will lead to more costs. Perhaps, and I may be pulling this out of my ass here, the DoF want to borrow as much as possible now, before wholesale money market rates go up, and the most they are prepaired to look for is in relation to the Interconnector, and that's why they'll push out Metro North.

Besides, I'm sure that the DoF is also looking at a contingency for buying money or credit just in case the PPP part of MN goes belly up (like London Underground's one did) and they have to pick up the tab. On that basis pushing MN out makes sence to the DoF, if not to those on the ground as it were.

And also, the credit crunch will effect the ability of any Private contractor to raise funds in the short to medium term.

trellheim

Working on the basis that prophets of doom are never wrong I'm going with Spongebag's case.


given that we have to lash through a railway order and the consultations and all the other hoops

this has to grow legs very soon to allow the 2014 completion dates....


possibly the best "ear-to-the-ground" thread on boards at the moment imho.

Nostradamus

I am happy to provide the following updates:

Amazingly Metro West is full steam ahead. Not being shelved put on hold or anything. I was expecting this to get the chop.

Anyways, and this is from as close to the horse's mouth as one can get.

WRC North of Athenry - History
Lucan Luas - Dead in current guise will be relooked at again in the long term
Luas BX - final decision to be made after end of September 08

Everything else is going ahead including Navan.

Now I suggest the trainspotters and IRN moles on this board sit down for the next part. They is also a plan to kick-start a railfreight revival starting in 2010. The new port at Bremore is to become the main feeder for railfreight network in future. No idea what this entails but it is a lynchpin element of environmental future policy. It's not looking like it's going to be tax relief (would cause a truckers revolution), but more likely capital investment in the sector through Green/Eco business grants.

I was surprised at how much good stuff is still coming for rail still, and the Government is to be commended for sticking with the NDP and borrowing to fund it. Real break from the past mentality alright.

So something for everybody except the headcases who wanted to their heads dangling out of the window of a Craven coach as it trundled across Swinford Viaduct.

murphaph

If your source is a gud'n then I couldn't be happier! I never supported the WRC beyond Athenry and neither did I support the silly wandering Lucan Luas when the cash could be far better spent on Galway/Limerick suburban and feeder buses and requisite fixed infrastructure to feed into the heavy rail lines north and south of Lucan (as well as into the N4 QBC).

Victor

Nostradamus wrote: »

Now I suggest the trainspotters and IRN moles on this board sit down for the next part.

Behave.

aliveandkicking

Nostra have you heard anything in relation to the supposed change in completion date for Metro North from 2013 to 2017?

DWCommuter

Nostradamus wrote: »

I am happy to provide the following updates:

Amazingly Metro West is full steam ahead. Not being shelved put on hold or anything. I was expecting this to get the chop.

Anyways, and this is from as close to the horse's mouth as one can get.

WRC North of Athenry - History
Lucan Luas - Dead in current guise will be relooked at again in the long term
Luas BX - final decision to be made after end of September 08

Everything else is going ahead including Navan.

Now I suggest the trainspotters and IRN moles on this board sit down for the next part. They is also a plan to kick-start a railfreight revival starting in 2010. The new port at Bremore is to become the main feeder for railfreight network in future. No idea what this entails but it is a lynchpin element of environmental future policy. It's not looking like it's going to be tax relief (would cause a truckers revolution), but more likely capital investment in the sector through Green/Eco business grants.

I was surprised at how much good stuff is still coming for rail still, and the Government is to be commended for sticking with the NDP and borrowing to fund it. Real break from the past mentality alright.

So something for everybody except the headcases who wanted to their heads dangling out of the window of a Craven coach as it trundled across Swinford Viaduct.

I hope you kept the receipt for that crystal ball.:D

As for Rail feight........fastrack is about to bite the dust. My crystal ball is plugged in. But hey we can all claim to know the future from this source and that. I just hope that many of you are as quick to congratulate those who will turn out to have called much of it correctly. September/October will be a time to remember.:eek:

shamwari

Dunno where this notion of a rail freight revival is coming from :rolleyes: There's nothing to stop a revival as things currently stand. Bremore is of no consequence really. It is seperated at grade from the existing northern Rail line so there's little scope to connect the port to the rail network, and its commission is supposed to be linked to the implementation of an outer orbital route. None of which will happen before 2010, and probably not for some time given the current economic situation.

Incidentally, Dublin Port are going ahead with their expansion plans beyond Coastal's yard on the north bank. According to their submission to the Sustainable Transport Study it's to be rail connected to the dockside. Another nail in Bremore's coffin perhaps?

Schuhart

shamwari wrote: »

Dunno where this notion of a rail freight revival is coming from.

Let me first stress I'm not advocating anything, or trying to sell rail freight as a concept. I'm just trying to get some kind of perspective on the WOT statement that a rail freight service (which they say they lobbied for) has exceeded expectations. The service in question seems to be one where a private contractor takes on the business risk - the contractor pays IE for the train, regardless of whether its full.

For ease of reference, the post where I linked such background material as I could discover online is here

Now, I'm not suggesting that this project justifies the WRC - as presumably the Interconnector would radically increase the capacity of the network passing through Dublin, enabling this service to continue and expand. What I'm more interested in is if anyone has any substantial comment on the WOT statement that they have proven a demand of rail freight, and that a business model exists that could (presumably) be used on other routes.

Now, maybe no-one has anything to say about this and, if not, fair enough. But I'm just interest in comment as I'd hate to think we passed by an interesting idea just because of an unreliable messenger.

paulm17781

I'm pretty certain WoT also say the WRC north of Tuam isn't a waste of money. Just because they say it, it doesn't make it true. Same applies to freight.

Schuhart

paulm17781 wrote: »

I'm pretty certain WoT also say the WRC north of Tuam isn't a waste of money. Just because they say it, it doesn't make it true. Same applies to freight.

I agree. But I suppose that's why I'm looking for some kind of guidance about the specific claim about volumes carried by this service. Bear in mind, there's a big difference between WOT cooking up passenger numbers out of the sky, and real freight being put onto trains from Ballina to Waterford.

There seems to be some factual basis for what they are saying - although I can find no independent verification of their claim of 18 trains a week travelling the route. I suppose, if I was to focus on one point, it might be that. Is their statement of 18 trains accurate? It does not seem to be supported by the document I linked to my earlier post. However, that document does seem to verify that such a service exists.

I think the WOT case has been traditionally vacuous. I just want to ensure that those of us who object to their fantasies keep our feet firmly standing on fact. If a Ballina Waterford freight service is a success, that is a good thing and something that we should be looking to do elsewhere too.

IIMII

Freight doesn't make much of a difference to anything on the Irish railway network.

Freight is completely irrelevant to the business case for railways in this country. Unless a new line can justify its build and running costs with passenger volumes preferably augmented with new freight business then looking at precedents, there is no point to going down that road.

If a governmental transport commitee were formed tomorrow to develope commercially viable freight flows, they would start on the Kingscourt-Navan-Drogheda axis, not in other parts of the country where there isn't a real hope of winning more business.

The Navan Drogheda line is already the busiest freight line in the country with 3-4 trains a day of zinc ore travelling to Dublin, as well as some Irish Cement trains.

The Navan-Kingscourt line is only closed 6 years or so, and Gypsum still operate but via the road network now.

But that doesn't even feature as a reason to develope the network in the area either for passengers or freight.

You could argue that freight from Navan would enhance the business case for the direct Navan Dublin line reopening as it would free-up slots on the northern line etc.

However, the 8 or so Tara freight trains (and to a lesser extent the Irish Cement ones) to and from Dublin are timed for off peak on the northern line so that passengers slots aren't affected. Similar to how freight from the west moves east.

So really unless you can find new business in multiples of that on the Navan line for any new line, freight is irrelevant for any new rail projects in the country.

It is pointless to look at existing freight flows as a case for reopening the WRC. They can already get to their destinations without another railway.

If you want to explore potential new freight routes, look for producers of bulky goods shipped in high volumes that could ship from one existing rail head to another.

The question is whether there is a demand for freight from any point along the WRC that is not currently rail connected to the rail network and that will be if it is reopened in it's entirety.

So are there any large mines or producers of bulky goods which are shipped in high volumes along the WRC?

Realistically, you are looking at mines and/or export companies to meet the triple requirement of stability, volume and bulk-produce. And of course the goods need to be moved in entirety from rail-head A to rail-head B without sub-division.

If you don't have that well there is no point in talking about freight and the WRC. Sligo, Limerick and Galway are already connected by rail to cities ports all over the country so the towns and villages along the WRC will either A) have to be consuming huge volumes of bulky goods or shipping out huge volumes of bulky goods.

Ham'nd'egger

Schuhart wrote: »

There seems to be some factual basis for what they are saying - although I can find no independent verification of their claim of 18 trains a week travelling the route. I suppose, if I was to focus on one point, it might be that. Is their statement of 18 trains accurate? It does not seem to be supported by the document I linked to my earlier post. However, that document does seem to verify that such a service exists

18 freight trains a week is not a fixed number though it often does happen.

Current freight traffic around the Mayo area is a minimum of 6 laden timber trains a week; 3 from Westport and 3 from Ballina and two laden Norfolk Line liner trains from Ballina a week as of late depending on traffic levels. The Ballina Liner occasionally carries other container traffic on it while some weeks can see extra timber trains worked and occasional Permanent Way trains though these are rare.

Schuhart

Hamndegger wrote: »

18 freight trains a week is not a fixed number though it often does happen.

Current freight traffic around the Mayo area is a minimum of 6 laden timber trains a week; 3 from Westport and 3 from Ballina and two laden Norfolk Line liner trains from Ballina a week as of late depending on traffic levels. The Ballina Liner occasionally carries other container traffic on it while some weeks can see extra timber trains worked and occasional Permanent Way trains though these are rare.

Useful information - thanking you. Just one factual question - what is a Permanent Way train?

Victor

So half those trains are empties returning for loading.

What of using those empties for car distribution from Waterford to the West?

Ham'nd'egger

Schuhart wrote: »

Useful information - thanking you. Just one factual question - what is a Permanent Way train?

Per Way are trains that are involved in the upkeep and/or replacement of track. They would carry ballast, rails, sleepers etc to and from working sites. The WRC ironically enough has a lot of these trains at present.

Ham'nd'egger

Victor wrote: »

So half those trains are empties returning for loading.

What of using those empties for car distribution from Waterford to the West?

That would involve cutting up cars into timber sized pieces

corktina

Hamndegger wrote: »

Per Way are trains that are involved in the upkeep and/or replacement of track. They would carry ballast, rails, sleepers etc to and from working sites. The WRC ironically enough has a lot of these trains at present.

should be stated here that they are not revenue earning trains and cannot be counted as freight....

KC61

There are usually two, but sometimes three Norfolk liner workings Ballina-Waterford in each direction, plus three Coillte timber trains ex-Ballina and three ex-Westport to Waterford and return each week.

That adds up to 18 trains.

IIMII wrote: »

It is pointless to look at existing freight flows as a case for reopening the WRC. They can already get to their destinations without another railway.
`
They can with the existing service levels. However, with the ramping up of passenger train frequency on the Galway, Mayo and Waterford routes over the next year or so, it is going to be increasingly difficult to efficiently path the freight trains around the passenger services on these routes.

DWCommuter

KC61 wrote: »

There are usually two, but sometimes three Norfolk liner workings Ballina-Waterford in each direction, plus three Coillte timber trains ex-Ballina and three ex-Westport to Waterford and return each week.

That adds up to 18 trains.

IIMII wrote: »

It is pointless to look at existing freight flows as a case for reopening the WRC. They can already get to their destinations without another railway.
`
They can with the existing service levels. However, with the ramping up of passenger train frequency on the Galway, Mayo and Waterford routes over the next year or so, it is going to be increasingly difficult to efficiently path the freight trains around the passenger services on these routes.

KC61

You're dead right about all that ramping up. So let all that freight flow down the WRC, as it will never see the ramping up of passenger services in our lifetime. Don't forget the steam trains and old time diesels either. Plenty of room for them all. Maybe even throw in a few filmmaking projects. Sure why not?

WRC = Wally Rail Concept.

My views are known and Im still in hiding after all the death threats from westies after I appeared in the western media 4 years ago.:D Remember this, now that the economic screw is turning, the WRC will still have got its foot in the door ahead of other more important projects. The cost is not a factor. Its a case of spending the money on more beneficial projects, so no comparing the few miles of hilly track in the west to the interconnector please! Despite all the crap from the west about social justice, the biggest injustice may be done in the east. The reality isn't too far away and the DOF will soon paint the picture, but I doubt all the pro WRC folk will step up to the plate and admit the wrongs that will be done.

IIMII

KC61 wrote: »

They can with the existing service levels. However, with the ramping up of passenger train frequency on the Galway, Mayo and Waterford routes over the next year or so, it is going to be increasingly difficult to efficiently path the freight trains around the passenger services on these routes.

Late evenings, nighttime or early mornings. The first zinc train from Tara Mines arrives into Navan at the crack of dawn, the last one after eleven at night frequently. The lines are empty of any traffic for best part of a third of each day. If extra capacity was indeed needed, it would be cheaper just to double existing lines in that scenario anyhow, and that would bring benefits to passenger timetabling as well on the intercity routes, particularly if passing loops etc are cut out or reduced.

KC61

IIMII wrote: »

Late evenings, nighttime or early mornings. The first zinc train from Tara Mines arrives into Navan at the crack of dawn, the last one after eleven at night frequently. The lines are empty of any traffic for best part of a third of each day. If extra capacity was indeed needed, it would be cheaper just to double existing lines in that scenario anyhow, and that would bring benefits to passenger timetabling as well on the intercity routes, particularly if passing loops etc are cut out or reduced.

That is a fair point...I happen to agree that there would (and should) be the scope to operate the freight at night....I'm merely explaining that the current operating pattern is going to be well nigh impossible once the increased passenger workings are introduced.

In fact I can't see how they would operate via the WRC by day either if there are seven passenger trains per day on the line between Limerick and Galway and the line between Athenry and Claremorris reopened.

Ultimately the Ballina-Waterford freight flows will have to operate at night, as this will be the only available option given that the entire line is single track and that most of the daytime paths will be taken by passenger services.

In those circumstances, I'd have to say that I believe that the freight will remain on the existing route, i.e. via Athlone and Kildare.

My comments were to be taken (as all of my comments on this subject have been) from an operational perspective, and not as an advocacy of the WRC.

There is a serious case for doubling long sections of Portarlington-Athlone as the knock-on effects of delayed trains could prove very problematic in the future.

Victor

IIMII wrote: »

If extra capacity was indeed needed, it would be cheaper just to double existing lines in that scenario anyhow, and that would bring benefits to passenger timetabling as well on the intercity routes, particularly if passing loops etc are cut out or reduced.

What they need is dynamic loops - sections of double track that are several km long. The first train into the loop times it trip so as to take slightly longer than the expected time for the opposing train to get into the other end (it can speed up if needed) - that way there is no dynamic friction in getting the train moving again.

Nostradamus

aliveandkicking wrote: »

Nostra have you heard anything in relation to the supposed change in completion date for Metro North from 2013 to 2017?

Nothing at all. I only know what I know because there is a lot of cooperation between Departments and hence how people in departments who were not privy before to rail and transport plans are now being highly educated and informed on such matters. She didn't even know what railfreight was before it was mooted as an 'enviormental business solution' or some such thing.