Any exit polls?

Khannie

Or are they banned these days?

sink

Khannie wrote: »

Or are they banned these days?

Afaik they're not banned but for elections in this country they are useless because of proportional representation. However that is obviously different for yes/no plebiscites, but I heard on euronews they are still not taking any exit polls.

Scruff

could we not set up an anonymous poll here asking people who voted how they voted?

lostexpectation

rte and newstalk said they weren't doing one ,ido wre doing a rough one? i guess with ref the results itself is fairly quick.

Rb

Scruff wrote: »

could we not set up an anonymous poll here asking people who voted how they voted?

There's already a poll on AH asking how people voted.

Time Magazine

For those who are interested in the predictive power of markets, Paddy Power are backing a Yes vote. I put €20 down on No winning at 7/4 at about midnight last night. They've changed those odds to 9/4 now. Yes at 2/7 on.

Looks like a Yes by at least a couple of percent on those figures.

Khannie

Antithetic wrote: »

For those who are interested in the predictive power of markets

I find them fascinating. Didn't the CIA have one for a while?

Interesting that PP are backing a yes vote. Will be interested to see if they're right.

I'm somewhat surprised that there haven't been any exit polls by the news heads.

An exit poll on boards wouldn't be representative of the population as a whole. The majority of users on here are young, a fair bit more male than female, etc. etc.

ShooterSF

Not sure if it's true but i read somewhere that PP had a No for Nice 1 at 10/1 the day of the polls. Though it does make for interesting reading I assume they base it on current polls and betting trends.

PH01

Antithetic wrote: »

For those who are interested in the predictive power of markets, Paddy Power are backing a Yes vote. I put €20 down on No winning at 7/4 at about midnight last night. They've changed those odds to 9/4 now. Yes at 2/7 on.

Looks like a Yes by at least a couple of percent on those figures.

Indeed - PP are closing some the options they had on offer - from 3 down to 1.
In the general election last year around this time on Polling day, they stopped taking bets on most of the constituencies for FF and we all know what a surprise the results were when they started coming in the following day.

So I reckon it's a good indication that it looks like the day might very well be won by the YES side.

BMH

sink wrote: »

Afaik they're not banned but for elections in this country they are useless because of proportional representation.

Didn't RTE announce an extremely accurate one for the last GE the morning after?

PrivateEye

reading over on politics.ie seems;

*Low turnout in Working Class areas.
*strong turnout in 'fishing towns' down south.
*Steady stream of folk in middle/upper middle Dublin.

not worried yet, I think it will turn around later.
Know plenty of no voters who can't cast their voters until later.

The Republic'll prevail and all that....if we lose, I hope the No vote is still substantially large. Then we can put the French and Dutch No vote with the no vote, and the yes vote with the the two Yes referndum votes from 2005, and decide who won :pac:

VOTEZ NON.

ircoha

Khannie wrote: »

Or are they banned these days?

If done, they not available till the polls close.

carveone

Just my 2c - When I voted this morning (about 10am), the polling guys said it had been very very slow, even considering it was relatively early. I'm thinking that whichever way it goes, people who didn't vote can't complain.

Which brings me to this bizarre conversation I had yesterday that I just have to get off my chest. Boards will do .

Went something like this. P for, um Peasant I suppose. Don't get hung up on her No attitude, it could have been yes and have the same kind of silliness:


P: Man, I hope the Nos swing it.

Me: O RLY?

P: Yeah, I mean, I don't want a European Super state, that's not what the EEC was supposed to be about.

Me: (Oh good, let's have a reasoned argument). I suppose you could view...

P: I mean, with the EU police state army, we'll have Nazis kicking down our doors. Like with Poland before.

Me: Whoa! Where are you reading this stuff..

P: Telling us what to do they'll be, dictating.

Me: Uh, we have opt outs on...

P: Yeah, I mean Sinn Fein are at least telling the people the truth as opposed to those government people.

Me: (edging away slowly). Er, I don't think even SF are saying anything like...

P: It's supposed to be economics only, like why aren't the EU fixing France's economy and stuff. And ours.

Me: (looking for some sort of bat). I thought you said you didn't want them interfering. And what's wrong with France...

P: Yeah and I haven't received my polling card.

Me: HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. OMG! All this talk about your rights and you aren't even on the register!

P: Well, I changed my address, they should have known.


LOL! Brilliant!

BMH

PrivateEye wrote: »

The Republic'll prevail and all that....if we lose, I hope the No vote is still substantially large. Then we can put the French and Dutch No vote with the no vote, and the yes vote with the the two Yes referndum votes from 2005, and decide who won :pac:

Overall, there were more Yes votes, and even if No wins here, I don't think we have the population to swing it.

Dirk Gently

PrivateEye wrote: »

*Low turnout in Working Class areas.
.

I voted about 5pm this evening in a large enough polling station and I was literally the only person there, no one else even in sight, either leaving or arriving.

DeVore

I'd say there is a fair bit of burn out over the whole thing, with people simply not caring one way or the other or not voting because they dont understand the treaty and so dont have strong opinions either way.

The results of the boards poll was NO by about 7% but I wouldnt expect that to stand nationwide. With a dataset in excess of 1300 the last time I look, it would have to be considered statistically significant for this demographic so the YES camp wont be too comfortable until the result is in.

DeV.

Neamhshuntasach

Of course there would be a low turn out in the working class areas pre 6pm. They are working and are now stuck on the bus home.

carveone

clown bag wrote: »

I voted about 5pm this evening in a large enough polling station and I was literally the only person there, no one else even in sight, either leaving or arriving.

That doesn't bode too well. I wonder how many people are deliberately not voting vs how many can't be arsed. Twas slow enough in Kilbarrack this morning - mostly old ladies voting before mass. And most of them were voting no by the sound of it: "don't want those europeans telling us what to do..."

Still, the prepolls say it's right on the edge so, given that most yes/nos are probably decided well in advance, it's all down to the "not sures"...

The Sun takes it for taste I think, with two big Xs over some young one's breasts. Not sure that would sway the old ladies somehow.

Khannie

clown bag wrote: »

I voted about 5pm this evening in a large enough polling station and I was literally the only person there, no one else even in sight, either leaving or arriving.

Interesting. I voted at around 8am this morning in the Skerries community centre. There were 3 or 4 other people there. I considered that very _very_ quiet. If I had been the only person there, I think would have been a bit freaked out.

DeVore wrote: »

I'd say there is a fair bit of burn out over the whole thing, with people simply not caring one way or the other or not voting because they dont understand the treaty and so dont have strong opinions either way.

Agreed. A good few people in here were open about not voting on both of those grounds.

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

Of course there would be a low turn out in the working class areas pre 6pm. They are working and are now stuck on the bus home.

edit:

carveone wrote: »

The Sun takes it for taste I think, with two big Xs over some young one's breasts. Not sure that would sway the old ladies somehow.

Haha. Brilliant.

edit: In fact....lots of great wit on this board today.

BoB_BoT

voted this morning in Athlone in one of the larger polling stations too, when I was going in there were about 3 elderly people leaving (11am), just happened to be sitting outside in my car afterwards for about 15 mins, 1 person went in. I voted around the same time in the general election, there was a considerably larger amount of people bustling in and out then. It'll be interesting to know the actual turn out for the entire election. I know it was 11, but it looked pretty bad. Out of interest, do they publish how many people spoil their votes?

IRLConor

The turnout did seem low to me. This is the first time I haven't had to queue to vote. There was reasonably steady traffic in and out, but it was lower than usual.

turgon

As far as I know, they would state amount of votes cast, then subtract the spoilt = total. I wont be around tomorrow to hear the announcement though, I would assume RTE will do one of their interrupt every other programme for the news job, like when the new pope was elected or for 9/11.

Dirk Gently

Khannie wrote: »

Interesting. I voted at around 8am this morning in the Skerries community centre. There were 3 or 4 other people there. I considered that very _very_ quiet. If I had been the only person there, I think would have been a bit freaked out.

Yeah, I had intended to get down a bit earlier to avoid the "rush" but didn't get out of work early enough. I had expected to have to queue a bit given the time but the place was deserted. First time I experienced it tbh, usually even at off peak times and even during local / euro elections there is sill a bit of activity about the place.

It did freak me out a bit, I thought someone cancelled the vote and didn't tell me or I arrived a day late or something.

turgon

When I went down there was only 3 or 4 old people around. Being a "young person" myself they were all staring at me as if I was some terrorist coming to steal the ballots. Which of course I didn't, and voted No.

cornbb

I voted at 6pm in Galway city. I had trouble finding the place, no signs up outside, no people milling around. I was the only person there at the time, very surprised, I thought the place would have been busy at around that time.

spank_inferno

voted at 7:15 at wicklow
so most of the commuters would be home by then
4 boots, 8 electoral officers, just me as a voter

I think all the carp we've been through from both campaigns have turned many people off.

kaki

I voted at about 7.30 in the local. (Primary school, not pub...) Got similiar strange looks for being so young, and I was the only one voting there at the time.

Fwiw, neither of my parents are voting. One is pro-treaty, the other anti-, and both are sick to death of the campaign, and so are not bothering to vote in protest. I feel so staid by comparison...

Randomness

I voted at 3 p.m

The officials practically jumped out of their seats when they realised someone had come to vote, they looked so bored!

They said....wait for it....50 people had voted at that stage!

Also so many people I know are not bothering to vote at all. Various reasons.

Sully

Seemed to be busy enough in my polling station anyway! Well, around the same as usual!

Dirk Gently

Randomness wrote: »

The officials practically jumped out of their seats when they realised someone had come to vote, they looked so bored!

Yeah, I was eye balled by the bored looking officials too as I walked in.They all looked like they wanted me to go to their booth. The girl asked me what number I was then sighed and told me I was in the next station up. The guy there got very animated and excitedly got his pen and ruler out to cross me off his list. I should have done a jig or told them a joke to keep them entertained. I'm pretty sure the guard at the door was falling asleep too.

ixoy

Pretty dead in my constituency (Sutton) - I voted at 18:30 and would have thought there'd be more people who, like myself, had just got in from work. After all the fuss, I'd honestly think you'd have a bigger turnout.

Call Me Jimmy

People care to speculate what has been the cause of the apparent low turnout? Could it be the public's resignation to being asked again and again until they vote yes?

DeVore

When can we expect the first indications? When would the result be expected??

DeV.

IRLConor

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

People care to speculate what has been the cause of the apparent low turnout? Could it be the public's resignation to being asked again and again until they vote yes?

I'd say it could be a win for the "If you don't know, don't vote" campaign.

ircoha

DeVore wrote: »

When can we expect the first indications? When would the result be expected??

DeV.

full result tmrw afternoon, tallies by noon

cornbb

IRLConor wrote: »

I'd say it could be a win for the "If you don't know, don't vote" campaign.

I really hope so. I also think that most people who made up their minds at the last minute went for Yes, at least judging from boards posts. Hardly scientific though. I won't hold my breath.

Call Me Jimmy

Yesterday I was sure of a No win. I would have thought a low turnout would be a No turnout because of the sexiness of the No campaign. I thought there wouldn't be as many yes people coming out because there isn't so much of an incentive for them but pundits seem to think it's the opposite so I dunno.

Dirk Gently

cornbb wrote: »

I really hope so. I also think that most people who made up their minds at the last minute went for Yes, at least judging from boards posts. Hardly scientific though. I won't hold my breath.

On my way home from work today I over heard a group of women (about 7) who were discussing the vote. They were deciding which way they would vote (communally as a whole). They changed their minds about 3 times in the time it took the traffic lights to change. It was as casual as deciding whether to have pizza or chinese. The last I caught from the conversation someone said I think we should vote no. The rest said "yeah your probably right". If one of them had of said "I think we should just vote yes" they would have all casually voted yes. They might as well have flipped a coin. I think they were just out for a walk to the polling station tbh.

I wonder how many last minute voters (a) turn up and (b) decide in a way other than what there mate decides at the last minute.

carveone

clown bag wrote: »

They changed their minds about 3 times in the time it took the traffic lights to change. It was as casual as deciding whether to have pizza or chinese.

Man, I need a drink...

Time Magazine

carveone wrote: »

Man, I need a drink...

I want a pizza.

cornbb

Antithetic wrote: »

I want a pizza.

No, you should really get chinese... just click link in my sig and read about-

Ok, time to shut up now

Ronan|Raven

We can have both!

carveone

cornbb wrote: »

No, you should really get chinese... just click link in my sig and read about-

Ok, time to shut up now

ROTFL! Ok, that's freaking funny.

IRLConor

Ronan|Raven wrote: »

We can have both!

Way ahead of you:

DeVore

We should send this pizza and wine back again and again until we get the wine and pizza we believe we are entitled to!

DeV.

PrivateEye

The exit poll on politics.ie has both sides painfully close.

Personally hoping

*the working class vote came out.
My dad is the classic working class voter. Labour/Sinn Fein depending on candidates, not a second of time for Libertas, strong trade unionist values but highly skeptical of further immigration. Odd mix, will never understand it myself- but its very common. He's a fireman, the entire station voted no today. Around here (Ballyfermot) turnout seems to have been steady enough. Walkinstown was packed too. Mams side are FF since the 20s....they voted no too.

*the farmers vote no
i think a lot of farmers will vote no. two-way bet. i think the IFA were merely covering themselves anyway in the event of a yes vote, i can't see the rank and file voting yes now.

*fine gael/fianna fail ripped each other apart
its your fault! no its your fault! i don't know how many people bought the 'i'm ****ting it-you?' united front, and ff attacking fgs efforts hopefully got the leinte gorma rank and file behind a no :pac:

*the roscommon/monaghan/galway protest votes
and the fisheries too. These votes will play a huge part, hopefully.

*The trade-unionists
Unite and several other strong unions will hopefully deliver today.

*skepitcal people came out
the middle class liberals (richard boyd barrett? nearly elected? you're having a laugh...), republican fianna fail voters, mcevaddy business types, the gay byrne lovers, the 'democratic deficit' people, even the bloody mad pro lifers..... (*though I've said from day one abortion is a non-issue. I'm pro choice, and wear that on my sleeve)

2 minutes left.
I'm hoping for a resounding no!
A croissant and a Danish pastry (get it?) on Satusday morning maybe.

IRLConor

DeVore wrote: »

We should send this pizza and wine back again and again until we get the wine and pizza we believe we are entitled to!

This is one of the things that I have no problem doing again and again and again.

Breezer

DeVore wrote:

We should send this pizza and wine back again and again until we get the wine and pizza we believe we are entitled to!

But if we keep that up we'll eventually starve to death, while others get fat on Chinese food

Rb

My polling station was deathly quiet when I arrived up around half 5. Apart from myself, there was one other couple and those working looked bored out of their minds.

However, when the guy was flicking through the sheets for to cross off my name, I noticed that about 90%+ of every sheet was crossed off, thankfully.

IRLConor

RTE said that the turnout was 40ish% at 2210.

Fast_Mover

Id believe it.
My polling station was fierce quiet when I went in to vote at 4pm, only myself and my mother were in there. When they were crossing my name off the sheet hardly any of it was marked.
My father was the last of my family to vote, he went in at 9.30pm tonight and said it was very quiet.