Call It

sink

IRLConor wrote: »

How do they know this? The ballot boxes from the islands haven't been opened yet.

Exit polls.

IRLConor

oscarBravo wrote: »

Exit polls?

Ah yes, forgot about those things.

Out of curiosity, how accurate do they tend to be? I've voted a good few times now and I've never even seen an exit poll being conducted nor have I heard of anyone I know being polled for one.

darkman2

I persume its an exit poll. I read it on one of the gaurdian blogs - the journalist, Mick Fealty (i think) also said that the Island votes actually tend to show how the West and Southwest vote in general. Not sure how much to read into it.

sink

IRLConor wrote: »

Ah yes, forgot about those things.

Out of curiosity, how accurate do they tend to be? I've voted a good few times now and I've never even seen an exit poll being conducted nor have I heard of anyone I know being polled for one.

They can't be published till after everyone has voted but people on the inside can let it slip to a few friends. They tend to be fairly accurate as they ask voters coming out after the have just voted. I don't know the facts but I would expect it to fall in the region of 5% margin of error.

darkman2

sink wrote: »

They can't be published till after everyone has voted but people on the inside can let it slip to a few friends. They tend to be fairly accurate as they ask voters coming out after the have just voted. I don't know the facts but I would expect it to fall in the region of 5% margin of error.

Does it really matter anyway - this treaty will be won or lost in Dublin.

mrpants

its mad that alot of people think its going to get the "yes", yet anybody i know is voting "NO". and by they way they are talking most of the people they know are voting "NO".

johnnyq

mrpants wrote: »

its mad that alot of people think its going to get the "yes", yet anybody i know is voting "NO". and by they way they are talking most of the people they know are voting "NO".

FF is some machine to beat. Never underestimate it for unquestioning loyalty.

IRLConor

mrpants wrote: »

its mad that alot of people think its going to get the "yes", yet anybody i know is voting "NO". and by they way they are talking most of the people they know are voting "NO".

That's pretty much the opposite to my experience.

johnnyq

IRLConor wrote: »

That's pretty much the opposite to my experience.

That's why I think it will be for this reason that the Yes side may win. If No people stay at home, the lobbies will carry it.

mrpants

johnnyq wrote: »

That's why I think it will be for this reason that the Yes side may win. If No people stay at home, the lobbies will carry it.

any of the "no" people i know or heard of feel very strong about it and i thnk it will be them that will turn up to vote

johnnyq

mrpants wrote: »

any of the "no" people i know or heard of feel very strong about it and i thnk it will be them that will turn up to vote

Here's hoping. I will be one of them anyway.

marco_polo

I think the yes campaign had a pretty good last few days and I thought that they won most of the debates during this week. Between that and the main parties getting the grassroots out I think it will be just enough.

Also that anti-abortion nutter on Q&A monday night who reckons the European Court of Justice is a big conspiracy may have swung it for the yes camp .

I have a feeling that it may be something like 55%-45% in the end

Call Me Jimmy

Maybe it's like this before every referendum but I get the feeling this'll be a big wun turnout-wise, whatjez think?

Shield

My prediction is that the No camp will win it by around 2%.

genericgoon

A draw, with Biffo and Co. having a penalty shoot out with the Alliance of Naysayers. 10 euros on Biffos team.

More seriously, I reckon a 2 point win for Yes.

nhughes100

I really don't agree that the No camp are voting no because they are lazy. How many people vote FF or FG because"Oh, My familly has always voted for FF/FG and always will" Lots of people in general/local elections vote for the party and don't bother to find out anything about the actual candidate. I think if you don't understand the treaty then you are perfectly entitled to vote no, to insinuate that the no camp is made up of the typical unemployed, racist Irish bedgrudger is simply not the truth.

Jip

That's the impression I get from some people Nigel, alot of people seem to be putting the no voters into the fairly uneducated working class mongrels slot.

mike65

I'll go for a 50-55% turn out as the weather is decent and a yes vote by 56/44 - I suspect quite a few will go in and seeing the boxes will take a deep breath and X the yes box.

Mike.

cornbb

mike65 wrote: »

I'll go for a 50-55% turn out as the weather is decent and a yes vote by 56/44 - I suspect quite a few will go in and seeing the boxes will take a deep breath and X the yes box.

Mike.

I agree, I see a lot of undecided voters going in the Yes direction at the last minute. At least I hope so

dathi1

Just asked old neighbours at south dublin polling centre this morning which way they voted. 10 No including myself and 1 no.

I'd say the Yes will get it by 1-2% as the day goes on.

Jip

dathi1 wrote: »

Just asked old neighbours at south dublin polling centre this morning which way they voted. 10 No including myself and 1 no.

I'd say the Yes will get it by 1-2% as the day goes on.

You came to that conclusion from 11 people you know, including yourself, all voting No

gazzer

From people I have spoken to over the last week in work, in the gym, family and friends they are all voting NO.

nhughes100

Everyone that I've discussed this with bar two people I know are voting no but I suspect this will change in the voting booth, I think it's called Fianna Fail syndrome where nobody admits to voting for FF but a lot of people actually do.

eoin2nc

nhughes100 wrote: »

Everyone that I've discussed this with bar two people I know are voting no but I suspect this will change in the voting booth, I think it's called Fianna Fail syndrome where nobody admits to voting for FF but a lot of people actually do.

Nobody on boards admits to voting for FF.......

cornbb

When will we start getting results from exit polls?

sink

cornbb wrote: »

When will we start getting results from exit polls?

There are no exit polls been taken according to euronews. The earliest we'll know is tomorrow afternoon.

dathi1

Everyone that I've discussed this with bar two people I know are voting no but I suspect this will change in the voting booth, I think it's called Fianna Fail syndrome where nobody admits to voting for FF but a lot of people actually do.

Totally agree.
Its a hard one to call. Turn out this morning according to RTE is slow.

On a seperate note..Just seen Gay Mitchel on France24 Sat TV more or less apologising to the French saying: "The problem is we have to vote on these issues due to our constitution"

jaazuss.

cornbb

If I heard correctly, RTE Radio have just said there's a stronger turnout in urban areas than rural areas, and that in urban areas turnout appears to be stronger in middle-class constituencies. Wonder why there are no exit polls?

sink

cornbb wrote: »

If I heard correctly, RTE Radio have just said there's a stronger turnout in urban areas than rural areas, and that in urban areas turnout appears to be stronger in middle-class constituencies. Wonder why there are no exit polls?

They never do exit polls here for elections because our proportional representation systems makes them almost useless. But I would've thought they'd do them for a simple yes/no referendum.

IRLConor

Perhaps the exit polls are gagged until the polls close?