Call It

The_Minister

Yes by a whisker. But maybe as low as a percent.

Breezer

Unfortunately No by a small margin, but I pray I'm wrong. Hopefully the rain'll get worse between now and 10pm tomorrow.

zuroph

yes to win. by 8%. low turn out. the no if you dont know brigade are too lazy to read a booklet that was pushed through their letterbox, thus too lazy to; Get up off the seat, check all windows are closed, set alarm, Go outside, lock door, walk to car, turn the car on, drive in traffic to the polls, park, go inside, identify, show id, go to booth, pick up pen, x the no box, come back out, find car, turn it on, drive home in traffic, park, and go back inside to sit down.

Especially since Dr phil is on.

Kavinsky

Saruman wrote: »

Hopefully it will be a yes vote. Lets hope its pissing rain to keep the negative no people who do not know what they are voting on at home in front of the TV

So basically anyone voting "No" hasn't a clue what the treaty is all about?

Breezer

Kavinsky wrote: »

So basically anyone voting "No" hasn't a clue what the treaty is all about?

No, not everyone, but according to the latest tns/mrbi poll "I don't understand" was the most popular reason given for intending to vote No. The problem is that a large number of people think voting No means no change.

Rb

Kavinsky wrote: »

So basically anyone voting "No" hasn't a clue what the treaty is all about?

Are you surprised? I've found this condescending attitude to be typical of those on the "yes" side hence why I'm looking forward to it being over and done with.

sink

Rb wrote: »

Are you surprised? I've found this condescending attitude to be typical of those on the "yes" side hence why I'm looking forward to it being over and done with.

It's not condescending towards all no voter imo. There are plenty of no voters you are informed and are voting no for legitimate reasons. However the Sunday Business Post showed 30% of nno voters are voting no because they don't know what's in the treaty. They all got loads of leaflets and it's been all over tv, radio and newspapers. Basically they are just neglectful if they know nothing.

Agent Smith

yes by a wisker of a wisker

could even be closer then the divorce referendum (50.3%)

Saruman

Kavinsky wrote: »

So basically anyone voting "No" hasn't a clue what the treaty is all about?

:rolleyes: You read way too much into things it seems. Im sure plenty of No voters have a valid reason for voting no but a LOT of them are voting no because they have no idea what the treaty is about so they are voting no, maybe to be on the safe side or maybe to stick it to the man. In fairness, the government did not put enough money into telling people what its all about

Libertas seems to have unlimited funds though and caught the government with their pants down.

mcaul

Rhonda9000 wrote: »

The government might be happy to make provision in the welfare systems and so on, but I assure you there are droves of unfortunately elligible voters that say things within their big gangs like "they're taking all our jobs", "those people are getting cars and houses from the Health Board" and -my favourite- "it's a disgrace". They'll be out tomorrow doing their bit P .

And these are the same people who go over to London / New York / Paris / Munich / Sydney etc etc to visit their brother / sister / aunt / unlce / friend etc who just happens to be living there, getting social welfare / jobs in the relevant countries!!!! - There are estimated to be 1.8 Million Irish BORN people who currently live & work abroad! Until we have over 1.8 million other nationalities besides Irish in Ireland, then and only then do we have an iota of a right to make any complaint.

At least I've convinced 2 guys working for me not to vote rather than vote No.

Rhonda9000

mcaul wrote: »

And these are the same people who go over to London / New York / Paris / Munich / Sydney etc etc to visit their brother / sister / aunt / unlce / friend etc who just happens to be living there, getting social welfare / jobs in the relevant countries!!!! - There are estimated to be 1.8 Million Irish BORN people who currently live & work abroad! Until we have over 1.8 million other nationalities besides Irish in Ireland, then and only then do we have an iota of a right to make any complaint.

At least I've convinced 2 guys working for me not to vote rather than vote No.

Thats the style! An uninformed voter is a negligent voter. When in doubt, spoil your vote IMHO. Keep up the good work!

ircoha

mcaul wrote: »

And these are the same people who go over to London / New York / Paris / Munich / Sydney etc etc to visit their brother / sister / aunt / unlce / friend etc who just happens to be living there, getting social welfare / jobs in the relevant countries!!!! - There are estimated to be 1.8 Million Irish BORN people who currently live & work abroad! Until we have over 1.8 million other nationalities besides Irish in Ireland, then and only then do we have an iota of a right to make any complaint.

At least I've convinced 2 guys working for me not to vote rather than vote No.

1.8/6000 = 0.03% so insignificant

1.8/5 = 36% so just look to cities like Liverpool/Birmingham etc for what will happen long before we get to 36%.

Neamhshuntasach

I'm hoping for a no vote to win but i have this feeling that yes will marginally win in a very low turnout of voters. I think the undecided's will be a huge factor in the outcome. Many will come home from work and get comfortable and will not bother going out to vote because they never really cared too much in the first place.

The scare tatics by the Government and EU officials this week have been unbelieavable and might just have scared a lot of people on the fence into a yes vote.

democrates

<50% turnout and Yes by >5%

I'm voting no, but I think there is truth in the points that many polling as no won't be motivated enough to vote, in the polls the ratio for those definitely intending to vote favoured Yes.

The yes side are very motivated, and for some it's down to self image - "I'm not anti-establishment because such types are losers and cranks".

toiletduck

Yes by at least 10%.

sdanseo

No might just clinch it I think. If it's yes its because, (AND ONLY because) people bottle it at the last minute.

mcaul

ircoha wrote: »

1.8/6000 = 0.03% so insignificant

1.8/5 = 36% so just look to cities like Liverpool/Birmingham etc for what will happen long before we get to 36%.

?? - I know this is off topic, but the UK's massive diverse population is due to its colonisation of countries worldwide, and this gave those people the born right to live & work in the UK as UK citizens.

aonoco

Think No will get it but by less than 2%.
Not sure why some people on this posting stating that No will win based on peoples ignorance. The Taoiseah of this country had not even read the document and he feels he has the right to tells us how to vote. People do not understand on either side, if in doubt kick it out and lets get a treaty that everyone can understand and you do not need to have a law degree to determine how this will change your life.

zig

aonoco wrote: »

Think No will get it but by less than 2%.
Not sure why some people on this posting stating that No will win based on peoples ignorance. The Taoiseah of this country had not even read the document and he feels he has the right to tells us how to vote. People do not understand on either side, if in doubt kick it out and lets get a treaty that everyone can understand and you do not need to have a law degree to determine how this will change your life.

have you tried to read it?

About Brian cowen, he helped negotiate it, im sure he knows more about it than you think, he read it, just not cover to cover

is_that_so

I believe that it will be Yes by a very small margin,although the truly awful campaign to inform the population by the Yes side has done no-one any favours at all.

ircoha

mcaul wrote: »

?? - I know this is off topic, but the UK's massive diverse population is due to its colonisation of countries worldwide, and this gave those people the born right to live & work in the UK as UK citizens.

It does not matter here how they get in, the end result will be the same.

Jack Sheehan

And again to anyone who is going to vote no because they dont understand the treaty, please, have a quick look at this page: http://www.lisbontreaty2008.ie/lisbon_treaty_changes_gov.html, it's reasonably clear and give a good run down of the main changes.

pro_gnostic_8

Odds offered by Paddy Power Bookmakers indicate it is a near-certainty to be passed ( and they usually get it right).

They bet:

YES ......... 2/5
NO .......... 7/4

IRLConor

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

Odds offered by Paddy Power Bookmakers indicate it is a near-certainty to be passed ( and they usually get it right).

They bet:

YES ......... 2/5
NO .......... 7/4

I dunno, it's close enough that I'm not going to call it certain either way until Mary Harney sings.

Agent Smith

YES 50.2%
NO 47.6%
Spolit 2.2%

johnnyq

Agent Smith wrote: »

YES 50.2%
NO 47.6%
Spolit 2.2%

That's a very high spolied rate don't you think? Why bother going all the way to the booth and see a Yes or No in front of you and somehow spoil it by writing "FF Suckz" on the paper. It's easier to explain it in elections because it's more complicated.

I really think it's too close to call. I won't even make a prediction.

Dave!

I suspect the No camp will win unfortunately

darkman2

I honestly have not got a clue which side will win but ive read that the Islands who already voted are thought to have given a 'solid no' - I do think the Yes side will sneak it but I agree with post above - they have done themselves no favours. Its going to be extremely close IMO.

IRLConor

darkman2 wrote: »

I honestly have not got a clue which side will win but ive read that the Islands who already voted are thought to have given a 'solid no'

How do they know this? The ballot boxes from the islands haven't been opened yet.

oscarBravo

Exit polls?