Thunderstorms

nacho libre

did you take some pictures paddy1?

rc28

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0622/weather.html
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0621/weather.html

M.T. Cranium

Wed 26 June 08 _ 0900h (08 GMT)

Would be on the lookout for a gusty thunderstorm developing around Laois perhaps in an hour or so, could then affect southeast Ireland south of Dublin and east of Cork but mainly those areas inland from Laois to just southwest of Dublin on the current indications. May not be staying awake for it myself (it is only 0100 where I am). Good luck

Snowbie

That clump over Limerick pushing eastwards is intensifying alright.

Weather BOFH

Two rumbles out here in the last minute or so. Absolutly lashing down.

DOCARCH

Yeah nemonoid - I can hear thunder in the distance now and very black clouds to my west.

Snowbie

Weak storm just approaching Dublin atm. No thunder yet to be heard.

DOCARCH

Forked lightning right overhead here - was standing in the back garden looking - 1 second between lightning and thunder.

dathi1

feels like we just had a direct stirke in Firhouse

DominoDub

A flash or two in Dublin 4

Snowbie

DOCARCH wrote: »

Forked lightning right overhead here - was standing in the back garden looking - 1 second between lightning and thunder.

Yep the only one i saw so far. About 5/6 seconds after the flash the thunder was heard.

DOCARCH

Here's the rain now - intense!

Form lightning detector, storm seems to have died as quickly as it blew up. Had 5 seperate peels of thunder here.

Just heard thunder here in the current heavy shower.

The fact that theres thunder about doesn't surprise me as the cB's are in evidence and the size of the rain drops would make the amazon proud

Weather BOFH

DOCARCH wrote: »

Forked lightning right overhead here - was standing in the back garden looking - 1 second between lightning and thunder.

Seen that too while out on my smoke break

Nothing since though, absolutly lashing rain still, 8.8mm in the last 30 minutes!

Snowbie

All the fun on the south side again. Just the one flash and thunder rumble.
3.8mm from that lot.

Hal1

I missed it all, woke early this morning about 8am had a gawk out of window could have sworn it was sunny:rolleyes:, fell alseep again to wake at 11.30am and its lashing rain

DOCARCH

nemonoid wrote: »

Nothing since though, absolutly lashing rain still, 8.8mm in the last 30 minutes!

I got 6.9mm in that same half hour.

ian_m

I saw this storm whilst heading north on the M50 at around 1025. Couple of beautiful shows of forked lightning over the Tallaght area. Drove right into the middle of it then as I headed north, it was lashing.

Deep Easterly

There is a rumbler now skirting to my east and southeast, some really explosive convection going on with that shower, developing anvil can be seen. Could be good for midlands and east later.

Danno

Damn new vacuum cleaner is not popular with the detector. 1722 Strikes in 3 minutes! Peak of 964 p/m!

Beefy shower this morning with nearly 100mm/hr rain rate! :eek:

Snowbie

This coming week from Wed,Thurs and Friday, Ireland looks set to be in an unstable westerly airflow. SB CAPE and LI (surfaced based cape and LI) could trigger some pulse strorms* widely across the country with central areas NE,E and SE at most risk.

Too far out to be a defo, will post back on in here on Tuesday evening with more detail.

Pulse type storm from homegrown is a Ts with weak level shear and weak directional shear and what happens is surface heating whether it be force by elevation too, creates convection ----> CB stage with updrafts but on the down side is the downdrafts combat (fall in on it)the updrafts and why storm only lasts a few strikes or more. Pulse.

Nothing spectacular to last weekend storms which where elevated with up and downdrafts seperated, which created the longevity of the storm due to strong shearing with height, the pulse type will be more widely scattered this week but not severe.

Anyway more info on Tuesday evening.

Deep Easterly

Certainly could be interesting Snowbie. Do you have any thoughts on model projections for Saturday next? Yesterday's 12z runs from UKMO and ECM showed a pretty potent low coming up from the south. This was not on any previous runs so it is a pretty sudden feature! Both UKMO and ECMWF have it again on this mornings 00z runs, but GFS having none of it.

Here is how it looks on the fax chart for Friday:



Although it is early days, there does seem to be some sort of "plume" ahead of that low to the south picking up a lot of moisture. My own thoughts are thinking monsoon type conditions for the southern half of the country over the coming weekend, and more especially the south east. But is there any chance of some night time storms ahead of and during this event?

Certainly is an interesting feature regardless.

darkman2

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn8411.png


Thusday looks 'interesting';)

Snowbie

@Deep Easterly, certainly moisture be evident aswell as humidity with unstable air approaching from the south. The air is sourced over spain and picks up moisture over the bay of Biscay. Good for storm development and a chart i haven't seen in ages.

However it is a long way off. Usually in forecasting our typical airmass storms it would have to be within 12hrs for better accuracy on placement, but with this fax, if the charts maintain this setup by 18Z wedensday, we could be looking at widespread storms approaching from the south for late Friday and over Saturday or thundery rain as our Met calls it.

M.T. Cranium

Would also suggest chance of heavy thunderstorms developing overnight as strong occluding cold front sweeps through, then a second round with trough late Tuesday, could be quite gusty with those. Would look for overnight storms near west coast around 01-0200 and through central Ireland 03-0400 then reaching Dublin 05-0700. The second round should arrive about 6-7 pm in the southwest and rapidly move through during the late evening.

Deep Easterly

Snowbie wrote: »

@Deep Easterly, certainly moisture be evident aswell as humidity with unstable air approaching from the south. The air is sourced over spain and picks up moisture over the bay of Biscay. Good for storm development and a chart i haven't seen in ages.

However it is a long way off. Usually in forecasting our typical airmass storms it would have to be within 12hrs for better accuracy on placement, but with this fax, if the charts maintain this setup by 18Z wedensday, we could be looking at widespread storms approaching from the south for late Friday and over Saturday or thundery rain as our Met calls it.

Cheers S, nice sum up. Certainly uncertainty in the forecast regarding this little feature, ECMWf now has it approaching the south coast as early Friday afternoon now. Potential now for some high rainfall over south and east especially, dependant on where the wrap around occlusion lies:

Big Tone

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Cheers S, nice sum up. Certainly uncertainty in the forecast regarding this little feature, ECMWf now has it approaching the south coast as early Friday afternoon now. Potential now for some high rainfall over south and east especially, dependant on where the wrap around occlusion lies:

From this its observed that the Azores High is struggling to move north-eastwards against an unusually powerful jetstream whilst another Low 992hpa on the JS conveyor has formed over Nova Scotia to be carried on an E to SSE track bound for Ireland.

Snowbie

06Z going for a turbulent day both tomorrow and more so Thursday. However have more details later on this evening (18Z).

Will post up later on around 2300.

Snowbie

From 12Z, just a taste of whats due here tomorrow Wedensday.
Looks like midlands at most risk of seeing storms but all areas at risk of heavy showers away from extreme south and west coasts.
Will go through later on in more detail from 18Z outputs.

No problem with instability and surface based CAPE and LI.
ML CAPE good too.
Also attached is wind direction in which any storms will be blown, southerly winds for the majority of the country.
To the lee of mountain ranges looks interesting as forcing (lift) could prove explosive in some areas.In other words any area with favourable conditions that are north of mountain ranges could see a storm due to southerly winds. EG: Dublin, Meath and Louth

However very little low level shear and mid level shear so any storms will be short lived and less severe in nature looking at 12Z.

Danno

Looks quite threatning there Snowbie. Which will prove best for storms? Wednesday or Thursday???