Golf Betting

Culchie

I'm gonna hang out here a while. If ye degenerates don't mind:p

I used to enjoy betting on the golf, enjoy studying the form beforehand, before putting a few bob on the long shots, watch the TV and was pretty profitable over the period of a couple of years.

Bookies have wised up since then, but there's always a few golfers at 100/1 that have just at much chance as the ones at 10/1 (in my opinion).


Can't stay up all night playing poker anymore like a couple of years ago because erm....I can't exploit my employers softiness anymore, because I'm now the employer .... but I can manage to watch the US golf anyway, a mans go to live dangerously:rolleyes:

So after a nice run at the masters, I'm going to get back into the golf betting again.

I make no apologies for selecting long shots at all times, even if I think the winner will be one of the favourites. That's the nature of golf, a lucky bounce here, a lip out there. I think you can rationally narrow down the field based on form, past history and course characteristics versus players natural game.
Then you just hope that one of your selections befriend the golfing gods and carry you over the line.
The other good thing about selecting outsiders is that if you think he's going to bottle his 1 shot lead after 15 holes, you can take a decent profit by laying the bet on the exchanges.

Let's see if I still have the knack?


So, without further ado ... this weeks selections (my level stake is always the €4 min bet on betfair


Justin Leonard 34 €4.00 €132.00
Boo Weekley 38 €4.00 €148.00
Scott Verplank 110 €0.47 €51.23 €3.53 €384.77
Davis Love III 85 €0.57 €47.88 85 €3.43 €288.12
Ben Crane 85 €4.00 €336.00
Nick Dougherty 100 €4.00 €396.00
Frank Lickliter II 370 €4.00 €1,476.00
Jeff Maggert 330 €4.00 €1,316.00

I think Stewart Cink is the man to beat this week, but his 16.5 odds is below my criteria for bets.

Harbour Point is a course for the golf stategists, they need to plot their way around the course, the greens are small, so good scrambling is needed (Justin Rose?)

Davis Love absolutely loves this course, Verplank always goes well here, and Ben Crane has good scrambling stats and a bit of course form.

Let it ride!

5starpool

Hang out all you want, just don't go making fun of the mods like you do in poker

Trampas

Is Harbour Point is a birdie feast course?

I would pick someone who gets birdies and not a par golfer

Culchie

5starpool wrote: »

Hang out all you want, just don't go making fun of the mods like you do in poker

You're everywhere 5star;) Hope you're keeping well.

Culchie

Trampas wrote: »

Is Harbour Point is a birdie feast course?

I would pick someone who gets birdies and not a par golfer

Greens very small targets, so I'd disagree. Steady golfer is exactly what you're looking for.

Missed fairways and greens = behind trees.

Culchie

so I think the winner is coming from these players

1 T1 Lucas Glover FC SC P S H -5 F * -10 66 66 -- -- 132
2 T23 Boo Weekley FC SC P S H -7 F -9 69 64 -- -- 133
3 T4 Anthony Kim FC SC P S H -4 F * -8 67 67 -- -- 134
T4 T23 Cliff Kresge FC SC P S H -5 F -7 69 66 -- -- 135
T4 T59 Stephen Ames FC SC P S H -7 F -7 71 64 -- -- 135
T4 T4 Stewart Cink FC SC P S H -3 F -7 67 68 -- -- 135
T7 T4 Jay Williamson FC SC P S H -2 F * -6 67 69 -- -- 136
T7 T43 Jason Bohn FC SC P S H -5 F * -6 70 66 -- -- 136
T7 T23 Jonathan Byrd FC SC P S H -4 F * -6 69 67 -- -- 136
T7 T14 Jim Furyk FC SC P S H -3 F * -6 68 68 -- -- 136
T7 T23 Aaron Baddeley FC SC P S H -4 F * -6 69 67 -- -- 136
T7 T23 Marc Turnesa FC SC P S H -4 F * -6 69 67 -- -- 136
T7 T43 Robert Allenby FC SC P S H -5 F * -6 70 66 -- -- 136
T14 T4 Nick Dougherty FC SC P S H -1 F * -5 67 70 -- -- 137
T14 T1 Davis Love III FC SC P S H E F * -5 66 71 -- -- 137
T14 T43 Fredrik Jacobson FC SC P S H -4 F -5 70 67 -- -- 137
T14 T14 Tim Wilkinson FC SC P S H -2 F -5 68 69 -- -- 137
T14 T14 Michael Allen FC SC P S H -2 F * -5 68 69 -- -- 137
T14 T23 Parker McLachlin FC SC P S H -3 F * -5 69 68 -- -- 137
T14 T14 Ken Duke FC SC P S H -2 F * -5 68 69 -- -- 137
T14 T43 Mathew Goggin FC SC P S H -4 F -5 70 67 -- -- 137
T14 T23 Patrick Sheehan FC SC P S H -3 F * -5 69 68 -- -- 137
T14 T23 Ben Curtis FC SC P S H -3 F * -5 69 68 -- -- 137
T14 T1 Justin Leonard FC SC P S H E F * -5 66 71 -- -- 137
T14 T14 Briny Baird FC SC P S H -2 F * -5 68 69 -- -- 137




Little disappointed that Justin Leonard could't sustain his great opening round.

All the selections made the cut except Jeff Maggert who was on the cut line at +2.

Still think Cink is the main to beat.

Johnathan Byrd is the guy I wish I also had in my selections.

I'll be backing Mark Brooks for the next couple of weeks (a Major Winner from years gone by who has played muck for a long time.) He shot 78 -68 and missed the cut. Anyone who shoots 68 at Harbour point is hitting form....so if he has decided to come out of a decade's hibernation, I want to have a little interest in him, whilst he's under the radar.

califano

you have to be happy with 4 charges still in with a shout at this stage. good going.

berliner

Golf betting is a mugs game.It's really like buying a lottery ticket.One piece of advice i'd give is to wait to place a bet after round one is completed.Nothing worse than backing a guy that doesn't make the cut.I have Anthony kim backed this weekend,if he doesn't do the business I'm finished golf betting.I've had a dreadful run of losers so he's my last bet.

Culchie

berliner wrote: »

Golf betting is a mugs game.It's really like buying a lottery ticket.One piece of advice i'd give is to wait to place a bet after round one is completed.Nothing worse than backing a guy that doesn't make the cut.I have Anthony kim backed this weekend,if he doesn't do the business I'm finished golf betting.I've had a dreadful run of losers so he's my last bet.

Hopefully you had Kim e/w.

I bought a winning ticket it seems:) needless to say I disagree with your assessment of golf betting, as I said at in the OP, I think you can narrow the field down on a consistent basis based on form, past history and course characteristics versus players natural game.

3 of my 8 selections lead the tournament at one stage, 7 out of 8 of them made the cut .... is that really 'buying a lottery ticket'?

Yes, you need the rub of the green for your selection to be the winner.

btw your advice on waiting until round one is over is a valid one.

raheny red

Culchie wrote: »

Hopefully you had Kim e/w.

I bought a winning ticket it seems:) needless to say I disagree with your assessment of golf betting, as I said at in the OP, I think you can narrow the field down on a consistent basis based on form, past history and course characteristics versus players natural game.

3 of my 8 selections lead the tournament at one stage, 7 out of 8 of them made the cut .... is that really 'buying a lottery ticket'?

Yes, you need the rub of the green for your selection to be the winner.

btw your advice on waiting until round one is over is a valid one.

I like it :pac:

berliner

I had Anthony Kim e/w so I'm back in business.I think Lucas Glover is due a win soon so my winnings are going on him for the next pga event.

Culchie

Wachovia this week, another tricky course, a score of -10 will be close to the bacon.

Guys who did well in the MASTERS normally do well here. With Tiger out, the price for the top players has levelled out, so these selections look like real long shots.

I think Jim Furyk and Stewart Cink will go well, but here is where my money went this week.

Steve Stricker 36 €4.00 €140.00 (CD, in 2008 form)

Trevor Immelman 50 €4.00 €196.00 (Masters winner, course to suit, rested)

Boo Weekley 55 €4.00 €216.00 (can't leave him out, so consistent at the moment)

Charley Hoffman 140 €4.00 €556.00 (due a win)

Davis Love III 220 €4.00 €876.00 (bargain of the week, never a 220/1 shot)

Bob Estes 450 €4.00 €1,796.00 (SHOT 68 despite mc last week, a hunch)

Tim Herron 370 €4.00 €1,476.00 (needs 4 consecutive rounds to click, if it does, will be close)

John Senden 140 €4.00 €556.00 (Top 10 last year, playing well)

Mark Hensby 350 €4.00 €1,396.00 (4th last week, 350/1 .....hello!!!)

badbrian

Sabbatini for me. 66/1 with BruceBetting paying 6 places. Form at the moment is a bit off but form is temporary remember and 66/1 for such a talented player (who was third last year) is too big to miss.

Surprised Culchie you didn't include Zach Johnson in your staking plan if Masters form was a signpost. Trading at 110-120 on BF.

Culchie

badbrian wrote: »

Sabbatini for me. 66/1 with BruceBetting paying 6 places. Form at the moment is a bit off but form is temporary remember and 66/1 for such a talented player (who was third last year) is too big to miss.

Surprised Culchie you didn't include Zach Johnson in your staking plan if Masters form was a signpost. Trading at 110-120 on BF.

Sure, you can't pick em all.

I agree though, nice price.
It was him or Estes, I'm such a gambler, couldn't resist the 450/1:pac:

berliner

I did an e/w double on Johan Edfors to win in Spain and Anthony Kim to win the pga event.One of them is going to win for sure but as usual I don't know which.Just hope both can do the business.20/1 and 50/1 so massive double if it comes up.

WH BONNEY

Decided to run with Peter Lonard @ 340/1 and Charley Hoffman @ 180/1.

These selections probably show why golf is -EV for me.

WH BONNEY

Go Charley go.

41 shots for his first nine holes.

Obviously he's decided to try out a set of left handed clubs this week.

badbrian

berliner wrote: »

I did an e/w double on Johan Edfors to win in Spain and Anthony Kim to win the pga event.One of them is going to win for sure but as usual I don't know which.Just hope both can do the business.20/1 and 50/1 so massive double if it comes up.

So why didn't you do singles? Good call on Kim

berliner

badbrian wrote: »

So why didn't you do singles? Good call on Kim

Thanks.i'm kicking myself on not doing singles.Damn i let a 50/1 get away.I'm staying clear of the european events from now on.

Culchie

berliner wrote: »

Golf betting is a mugs game.It's really like buying a lottery ticket.One piece of advice i'd give is to wait to place a bet after round one is completed.Nothing worse than backing a guy that doesn't make the cut.I have Anthony kim backed this weekend,if he doesn't do the business I'm finished golf betting.I've had a dreadful run of losers so he's my last bet.

You can retract this statement anytime you want:p You've obviously got a good knack of selecting a shortlist.

berliner

Culchie wrote: »

You can retract this statement anytime you want:p You've obviously got a good knack of selecting a shortlist.

I'll post a tip for the players championship which starts thursday.I really put the effort in regarding studying likely winners but as with everything in life you need a little bit of lady luck as well.

Culchie

Driving accuracy very important for the players championship, the course has been made more difficult with firmer greens and longer rough. Breezy conditions are the norm. You need a guy with good driving % and also greens in regulation stats.

Again, there are some obvious candidates, (Mickelson, Furyk, Singh) but I'm going Austrailian this week. They are masters in the wind, and they're on form.

Scott, Allenby, Appleby, Elkington, Baddeley all have the game and the bottle for this 5th Major. Scott is too short for my selection policy. I can see Elkington starting well, but falling away in round 3/4.
Jose Coceres is another dark horse I like, great wind player. Ben Curtis is my form pick and a massive price (good driving stats last week as well) and Garcia and Harrington like this course, but odds maybe poor value for Harry, and I'll enjoy it if he wins without money on him anyway. I gotta hunch Billy Mayfair is going to run good as well.
Justin Leonard completes my list with solid stats and form.

Baddeley 75
Allenby 75
Appleby 120
Campbell 140
Coceres 540
Garcia 42
Curtis 230
Leonard 85
Mayfair 280


I got a good feeling about this week;)

badbrian

I was robbed last weekend. Along with losing bets on Jiminez and Gonzales in Europe, Sabbatini on the PGA tour, I had Price in the Seniors. -10 won and he was -13 half way thru the back 9. Consecutive double bogeys. The place money (he was 25/1) covered my weekend though.
Having looked at the past few years in the Sawgrass I think Zach Johnson will be my main bet at 80/1 with Ladbrokes.
Also I'll back Sabbatini/Fasth and Jiminez at 125s & 150 to smaller stakes as this comp throws up some odd winners (anyone remember Craig Perks?)
And Funk to top 10 (22/1). Over 50 but a good record here.
Good luck all.

berliner

Here's my three for the Players championship. Andres Romero,Lucas Glover,Heath Slocum.Do those guys e/w and you'll make a nice profit.

Culchie

Culchie wrote: »

Baddeley 75
Allenby 75
Appleby 120
Campbell 140
Coceres 540
Garcia 42
Curtis 230
Leonard 85
Mayfair 280


I got a good feeling about this week;)

Mixed emotions, I'm feeling a little like Brian Kerr must have felt....I picked the right team, but the players are not performing 100%:p.

The in form Aussies are in around the money, but not really threatening to take this down, Appleby needs to shoot a 65/66 and post a score in the club house and see what happens. The wind hasn't been as strong as normal, so that didn't help me, as it was a major factor in my selections this week.

Only Justin Leonard missed the cut (right on the mark), so that was a good hit %. Elkington got off to a flyer, like I thought he would, and then faded away

The winners is here somewhere. Goydod is leading, but it's due to an incredibly hot putter, his GUI and driving stats aren't good, so I don't think he's going to be able to steer the ship home on the back 9 as the putter is sure to tighten up.

Kenny Perry or Garcia I reckon....(obviously as Garcia is one of my picks, I hope it's him .... but Perry is hot favourite.

Mickelson still in with a shout, but needs to knock in a mid 60's round, a rarity around Sawgrass.

If Goydos drops a couple of early shots, then it's going to be a scramble ....and that famous 17th may well decide the outcome of this and make great TV.

Olé Sergio:pac:

146 1 T2 Paul Goydos FC SC P S H -2 F -7 68 71 70 -- 209
61 2 1 Kenny Perry FC SC P S H E F -6 68 70 72 -- 210
115 3 T2 Sergio Garcia FC SC P S H 1 F -4 66 73 73 -- 212
31 T4 T16 Jeff Quinney FC SC P S H -2 F -2 71 73 70 -- 214
2 T4 T13 Phil Mickelson FC SC P S H -1 F -2 70 73 71 -- 214
- T4 T2 Bernhard Langer FC SC P S H 3 F -2 72 67 75 -- 214
69 T7 T55 Greg Kraft FC SC P S H -4 F -1 75 72 68 -- 215
141 T7 T37 Tom Lehman FC SC P S H -3 F -1 73 73 69 -- 215
105 T7 T37 Tim Petrovic FC SC P S H -3 F -1 73 73 69 -- 215
12 T7 T16 J.B. Holmes FC SC P S H -1 F -1 72 72 71 -- 215
28 T7 T16 Stuart Appleby FC SC P S H -1 F -1 72 72 71 -- 215
58 T7 T7 Briny Baird FC SC P S H 1 F -1 71 71 73 -- 215
8 T7 6 Boo Weekley FC SC P S H 2 F -1 70 71 74 -- 215
76 T14 T55 Charlie Wi FC SC P S H -3 F E 74 73 69 -- 216
44 T14 T37 Jerry Kelly FC SC P S H -2 F E 74 72 70 -- 216
102 T14 T37 Jesper Parnevik FC SC P S H -2 F E 72 74 70 -- 216
98 T14 T37 Fredrik Jacobson FC SC P S H -2 F E 76 70 70 -- 216
130 T14 T13 Ian Poulter FC SC P S H 1 F E 69 74 73 -- 216
43 T14 T7 Stephen Ames FC SC P S H 2 F E 74 68 74 -- 216

Culchie

Culchie wrote: »

Goydod is leading, but it's due to an incredibly hot putter, his GUI and driving stats aren't good, so I don't think he's going to be able to steer the ship home on the back 9 as the putter is sure to tighten up.

Kenny Perry or Garcia I reckon....(obviously as Garcia is one of my picks, I hope it's him .... but Perry is hot favourite.

If Goydos drops a couple of early shots, then it's going to be a scramble ....and that famous 17th may well decide the outcome of this and make great TV.

Olé Sergio:pac:

3 holes in and Goydos dropped two shots.....settle in for a long night ..... óle óle óle

berliner

Two out of 3 i tipped failed to make the cut.I give up.No more tipping from me.Better off getting the pin and picking them that way.So long:(

Culchie

bow chicka wow wow

twenty8

Culchie - fair play. You are really on a roll. Looking forward to hearing your Irish Open selections!!

badbrian

Has to be Pod this week. He is 2 from 2 at Adare Manor, including a star-studded 2 round event (Tiger et al played) where he was well clear.
Shouldn't have required a play-off last year.
8/1 seems like value in my books.

Culchie

twenty8 wrote: »

Culchie - fair play. You are really on a roll. Looking forward to hearing your Irish Open selections!!

Thanks .... been extremely busy at work this week, so haven't mulled over the stats yet this week.

I might give it a miss this week, I would stick with the USA golf anyway for betting purposes. I do think McDowell will be best Irishman in the Irish Open....but that's just a throw away comment rather than a punt.