Jan-Feb : The model search for more cold

nacho libre

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Lol you're possibly the only person on this forum who would not want it going eastwards!

Only one thing is certain: what happens on Friday will not be the same as that Met Office graph. Lots of variables to work out yet.

I was thinking of us all when i said that! i thought that if the lp went eastwards it would bring a period of snow but then turn milder behind it as the lp tracked eastwards. anyway, if you are afraid of missing out you should take a drive westwards this weekend;)

lucernarian

Would North Tipp do?

rc28

The optimism on the english weather forums seems to have diminished somewhat, has something changed? Are we relying on the GFS too much?

Paddy.1

GFS certainly on its own tonight. I find myself looking at that model less and less to be honest. Too many changes even in the short term.

Anyway, here is ECM's 12z streamline run for Friday. Winds still a bit slack for my liking to bring any widespread snow:



If that is anything to go by, looks like western and northern coasts could be still on for something, though frost might be a bigger event for those of us living inland.

Kippure

This is really fantansic stuff. Wonder will we have another super storm on the 18z

Whatever else happens,there should be a fair bit of snow up on kippure once the weather fronts have passed through as the rain will quickly turn to sleet and then snow above 2000ft or so.

As for the rest-tardis please

Kippure

Deleted User wrote: »

Whatever else happens,there should be a fair bit of snow up on kippure once the weather fronts have passed through as the rain will quickly turn to sleet and then snow above 2000ft or so.

As for the rest-tardis please

There,ll be some ser-rious drifts up there.

Let hope the ecm is wrong and the cold is prolonged till monday..... The ensembles show the cold lasting longer, however come wednesday we will all know the outcome off this baby. But only on the day do we see changes just like the last cold snap, Snow could fall anywhere. How much do you think will fall?

In these setups if we get a trough sliding south east you could be in for a couple of inchs.

I've seen heavy snow showers even down here in a northwesterly so it's possible and not to be ruled out.
I cant remember the year but it would have been 80's and the set up would have been similar.
Rakes of snow up North and North west settling with a few inches at sea level.
Here we had a mini blizzard that lasted 10 mins cutting the visibility to a fog and then brilliant sunshine for an hour or two followed by a rinse and repeat.
The snow settled at sea level and quickly melted in the sun before the next shower came.
The high ground got a few inches as they didnt have the problem of the snow melt.

Absolutely impossible to tell in my opinion as I believe that regardless of what we are see'ing tonight on UKM or ECM that they have not resolved this yet towards anything like what it will pan out trough or showerwise.
One thing in it's favour though is that it is happening at a good time of the year for max results for wherever ends up in the shower train fire line.
This set up in march or april would be a slushy mucky mess.

Kippure

Mild again for the weekend. Is the eagle for real? Do they have a model we dont know about. He seems very sure of himself that it will be mild this week end?

mike65

Just saw the 9.30 forecast - it looks like a non-event tbh. Cold for 36-48 hours some snow showers in the west and north. Meh.

Mike.

Villain

He said cold for the weekend on Radio 1 at 6pm ??????

Kippure

We want evelyn or gerry on this one. Im seriously peevved with that forecast.

arctictree

He doesn't want events canceled in the North West I think!

A

Kippure

Little change up to 42z.


http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=gfsh500;sess=

Trogdor

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVM89.TIF

nacho libre

I wonder what the BBC weather is saying for Saturday. Do they show the ridge coming in over Ireland on their weather map?

ninebeanrows

Non event my bottom

Thursday Night/Friday/Saturday


Potential for really snowy weather countrywide.

Eceptionally cold on Friday maxima -1 - 3c countrywide, possible polar low.

Saturday exceptionally cold with snow showers.

The there is a growing chance of the cold spell prolonging out to the following week with a raw easterly... 50% of 18z Ensembles go for this scenario all go for 3 day cold spell.

PL's are possible.

Lets hope tomorrow the models follow the GFS long cold spell 50%...

It doesnt get much colder in this country than it will on Friday/Saturday

darkman2

The new 96hr UKMO fax chart would bring quite a bit of snow right across Ireland - and not showers.

Gonzo

i dont think we'll know till the day were the snow hits, snow is often so localised its so hard to predict, some places cud see nothing, other places relatively close by could see 6 inchs or more, it happened last time. Im hoping we'll see something alot more widespread and longer lasting this time. Only one thing is certain, its going to be very cold.

metcheck have the cold spell lasting a solid week till thursday 7th February, I dont think it will last quite that long tho.

DOCARCH

Changed their tune this morning:

The rain should clear away later Thursday with extremely cold and wintry weather following for Thursday night, Friday and into early Saturday. There will be sunny spells but with very low temperatures the showers will turn to snow and there could be some significant accumulations of snow especially in parts of the northwest, north and northeast with the risk of thunder also. While the winds will ease somewhat later Thursday it will still be windy at times through Friday and feel bitterly cold. There will be frost and some icy conditions Thursday night and most especially Friday night, when the winds will decrease later in the night. Wintry showers will become well isolated during Saturday but it will be very cold with temperatures only rising slowly after a cold, frosty start.

Not going to get too excited by that - Dublin tends to get very little from that sort of set up unless there are organised troughs, etc.

Trogdor

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not going to get too excited by that - Dublin tends to get very ltlle from that sort of set up unless there are organised troughs, etc.

Like this one?;)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Paddy.1

Weathercheck wrote: »

Non event my bottom

Thursday Night/Friday/Saturday


Potential for really snowy weather countrywide.

Eceptionally cold on Friday maxima -1 - 3c countrywide, possible polar low.

Saturday exceptionally cold with snow showers.

The there is a growing chance of the cold spell prolonging out to the following week with a raw easterly... 50% of 18z Ensembles go for this scenario all go for 3 day cold spell.

PL's are possible.

Lets hope tomorrow the models follow the GFS long cold spell 50%...

It doesnt get much colder in this country than it will on Friday/Saturday

Very optimistic. I like it.
Going by ECM this morning, they are more hopeful of showers penetrating inland over Ireland with winds less slack:


As someone said ealier, we won't know until the time comes where the bulk of the showers will fall. A slight shifting of the wind angle will make a huge difference.
From an 'imby' point of view. I am getting more hopeful.:)

maquiladora

Latest GFS run is def an upgrade from yesterday, as you can see in the Netweather snow risk chart there is 100% snow risk for virtually all parts of Ireland. The pink area = 100%.



Wouldn't it be sweet?

Danno

Is that the famous shield around eastern Dublin then?

The fax chart posted earlier is a bit of a downgrade IMHO, last night it was a proper wrap around front, now it is just a trough. Still though, plenty of time left for upgrades.

ninebeanrows

Looks like no prolonged cold spell now.

But a 2-3 SNAP of extremely cold polar air.

Thursday Evening

---

> Sunday Morning

Friday looks like the day where there is the most potential for widespread
snowfall, polar lows, commas and troughs. 850hpa down to -10c.

Get your hats and scarves out but remember not to make snowballs with your glooves as this stuff is gonna be powder!!!;)

maquiladora

06Z GFS run is slight upgrade for Friday in terms of snow potential for the country but like WC says its going to be more of a snap than a spell...

nacho libre

This is why i love the month of February:)
2- 3 days of wintry weather is the most we usually get, when it's coming from this direction, before a ridge comes in over the country.

Gonzo

slightly concerned at that snow chart above if true, it shows the typical west-northwest cold snap situation of little or no snow around Dublin and Eastern Coastal counties.

Still tho Im not believing anything untill the day itself comes, remember the last cold snap beginning of January looked great a week before, then got downgraded severly to almost nothing 24 hour before and then upgraded massively on hte day itself and it managed to deliver 6 inchs to most of Meath, Louth & Northern Ireland. Also last weeks mini cold snap turned out to be a total non-event, even rte had snow showers and we ended up not even getting a frost so im gonna wait till hte day comes to see where the snow falls. Last minute polar lows/wind directions could form and change things completely.

maquiladora

Gonzo wrote: »

slightly concerned at that snow chart above if true, it shows the typical west-northwest cold snap situation of little or no snow around Dublin and Eastern Coastal counties.

The updated snow chart from the 06Z run is better with that East Coast 'gap' filled to show 95% snow risk. Still a few days out so its very much pinch of salt stuff but still encouraging...

Gonzo

BBC have changed Dublins weather for Friday from sunny spells to now showing Heavy Snow.