Jan-Feb : The model search for more cold

Heres the ensemble for Dublin in this mornings 06z. (The graph you see will change when later runs are out)

I thought I'd start a thread to discuss the potential for more cold.
For the past few runs as there seems to be a hint that theres a 50:50 split as to what happens after the 21st with a few of those hints towards highs located to our north or North East.

It's FI stuff and nowhere near a forecast but worth watching all the same as it's not too deep in FI that the split occurs at only 7 days out.

Kippure

With gfs going out on a bender again, i suppose the ecm is the best model to follow at the moment.

It caught the last cold spell while the gfs was asleep. Indeed i expect a cold last week to january. Last nights ecm showed a high coming out of south east europe heading west and been englufed by the russian high.

At the moment i think all models dont know whats next, so there following a set zonal flow , what there use to, until a spanner turns up...

As the last cold spell a ridge of high pressure built out into the labodour sea and davis strait. Deflecting the lows south into europe giving us our easterly. The same is happening again in the model runs.

Its a trend i watch now.

arctictree

Very FI but nice charts nonetheless. Certainly beats mildness progged for weeks on end...

A

Kippure

Kippure wrote: »

Its a trend i watch now.

Yeah there was a hint of cold spice in FI ECM and the tiniest of hints in last nights UKMO of a pressure rise in Scandi.
The winter is young yet

what finally verifies will be what we have (null points for stating the obvious) but professional Met people will probably as usual use a combi of all three models.

I spy with my little eye

hint : Scandy ahoy a high!

At the risk of talking to myself,tiny as it is,it's there on all models now in some shape or form past the end of next week with phantom lows pushing down under it which is what you'd expect to happen when it's that weak yet arm in arm with a beast way out further East.
All academic this of course but good to see it every where rather than in one or two places.
Hope it doesnt disappear but grows exactly in its current progged position over the course of the next forthnights runs.
I'm assuming data around the world is coming in a bit better than it was over Xmas with all the vodka drank and gone in the reporting ships

Trogdor

I'm likin run 8:p in FI what I'd give for that
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=8&mode=0
Cold from around T+228 all the way to the end of the run!

Nah I don't like slack northerlies.

This one is much better-follow the isobars

Supercell

Lads this is pure and utter specualation and likely total garbage, for shame, for shame.

There's less chance of WC seeing a 6 foot snow drift in his back garden this year (forecasted 12 foot) than these synoptics coming true.

Longfield

Longfield wrote: »

Lads this is pure and utter specualation and likely total garbage, for shame, for shame.

Yeah I like the idea of discussing the models but have to say I like you don't want to jinx things

There's less chance of WC seeing a 6 foot snow drift in his back garden this year (forecasted 12 foot) than these synoptics coming true.

Well I have to say I wouldnt say no to this ECM Very FI op run should it materialise! It's very unlikely at this stage but nice now to see all models trending towards these types of solutions.
We'll know this day week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm2161.gif

maquiladora

It's a long shot at this stage but the 06Z GFS gives us a hint at something nice for next Thursday.....but thats about it...looks pretty bleak otherwise.

Edit : the 12Z still has this...

arctictree

All I can see is wind and rain for the foreseeable future - even one bright calm day would be nice!

Gonzo

arctictree wrote: »

All I can see is wind and rain for the foreseeable future - even one bright calm day would be nice!

same here at this stage i'd rather a dry spell over anything else, i havent been out properly exercising since b4 christmas with all this wind and rain and am hoping for a long dry spell soon, but i wud rather we get all the heavy rain over and done with now then face it during the summer.

nacho libre

i'm tiring of this mild weather. A polar low within the next three weeks would be most welcome. it seems as if Feburary will yet again prove to be the month where we see more than a day of snow country wide.

maquiladora

Latest GFS is still showing snow potential for next Thursday.

Gonzo

even if it happens it looks like it will be less than a 24 hour affair with mild weather back the next day. At this stage I want some sort of a cold event that will last a couple of days at least.

arctictree

GFS charts are showing HP trying to develop around us from next weekend. Still very FI, but at least it would be better than the weather we have now....

A

Supercell

I just want fecking snow to fall on a Saturday or a Sunday.

Drove me fecking crazy to see it falling here while in work.

If I win the lotto I'm going to bribe a FF TD to get planning permission to build at the Sally Gap.

mike65

I spy with my little eye a high pressure build over Biscay/France which means er....warmer?

Mike.

ps that panel is of course live so may be completely different by the time you see it.

Danno

Yup, an early spring-like blast from the Azores. Even Evelyn was progging this on the 2100z weather last night. Sunny spells and widespread 10c temperatures: http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0119/9news_av.html?2327649,null,230

heh if you want to know whats coming,I´am here in madrid in a t shirt-it´s balmy!
19c max in the city centre yesterday and thats at 2000ft asl.
The rioja makes up for it though somewhat.
Actually the clear blue sunny skies and the heat is lovely tbh

mike65

Are the central plains are not normally covered in snow in January?.

Mike.

Not currently anyhow,I don´t know what is the usual.
I can see mountains in the distance with snow covered peaks (right at the top)-they must be pretty high though given the base altitude here is already 2000ft.
It´s gas though seeíng the local madridians in coats and scarfs still even at temps of 16-18c!

Danno

Was down near Gorey today Black Briar. Nice scenic part of the country back towards Ferns. Roads were terrible though, half of them washed away along with the road signs.. :rolleyes:

I wasn't anywhere near Gorey today (obviously) but I do know a thread thats now gone waaaaaaaaaaaaay off topic

<Dragging it slowly back>

I had a look at the 12z gfs there and the ECM and really I wouldnt be too dispondent at the lack of cold in them.
They seem all over the place but they are hinting at one thing and that is they want to move that huge polar vortex East and all the way east of our polar region.
Thats not bad at all if it ever happens as we do need something to surge cold down into Europe.
I'd concur with the tautology that February is the month to watch now.
I'm not a fan of march cold spells what with the days getting longer etc,I'd rather summer to start appearing then.

Gonzo

thankfully ive seen some decent snow this winter even it was very short lived.

I agree that February is the best we can hope for now, currently all of Europe is very mild so hopefully things will be cooler everywhere during February. I also agree that March is too late, I am not a fan of March cold snaps coz by then the daylight hours are really starting to kick in and the sun is getting stronger meaning any cold spells that happen are not as intense as if they had occured during January/February. I also like to think that from mid March is the start of the shift towards Summer with gradual temperature rise's and dryer weather.

I was speaking to someone from near Kracow in Poland this morning and they said its +10c there.
I wouldnt be looking East for cold right now.
In actual fact it would want to cool down by 20c there and thats a big ask.

Even Moscow is struggling to get below zero at the moment.
All the great 1980's jan and feb spells drew in cold surface air(sub minus 10c at source and colder iirc in feb 91 moscow was -22 and something like -26c in jan '87) from Eastern Europe.If it's not there we can't get it.

Gonzo

ye doesnt look promising for the rest of the winter, Saw a european forecast last night and everywhere is above zero even into Russia. 10C across most of Europe atm, its even quite mild in Scandinavia. So far while Irelands winter hasnt been as bad as last years in terms of lack of cold/frost or snow, I think the majority of the continent will see its mildest winter in a long time this year if the current trend continues.

was talking to someone in Lublin, Polska and like above said they are having an unusually mild Jan so far.
I found last night here very mild - almost like a summers night had to open the windows and kick off sheets!

Theres a pretty good chance that the iberian high will eventually float west of Ireland and into the mid atlantic allowing a northerly ala tonights ecm

This may become a northwesterly but it is likely if it happens to coincide with the migration eastwards of all that cold polar air that i was talking about earlie,should that happen also.
You could then end up with a cold polar maratime westerly ie a faux westerly thats really got it's origins in a northerly with some sexy snowy or wintry results for Ulster, connaught and perhaps right down to Kerry and West Cork just like that Xmas one a few years ago.
Watch carefully for this between now and the first week in february

Darwin

blackbriar - I think I see what you are saying...I'm still a bit confused about the origins of the forecast cold snap on Wed night/Thursday - the charts show an area of LP blowing atlantic westerlies (mild wet weather?) with an area of HP positioned over the bay of biscay.