Turning 5 euro into 500, by rolling over "safe" bets.

mike65

Is it possible?

I've decided to find out!

I put said money on a treble match bet in the Prem/Scot Prem today which returned €11.31. That money plus the 5 (€16.31) is now on Argentina at 1/3 which will return about €21.00.

I'm going to keep rolling over the total until I get rich or loose the lot in one go.

After the Argentina win I have €21.75c

07/10/2007

---

Bet returns €21.75
07/10/2007

---

Bet stake-€16.31
07/10/2007

---

Bet returns €11.31
03/10/2007

---

Bet stake-€5.00

Small steps but in the right direction.

Mike.

county

best of luck with that mike

RuggieBear

/me subscribes

i might try the same. I've taken my last euro on paddypower and got it up to 10.99 betting on the world cup.

BrandonBlock

These kind of things always fail at some point, say for example yesterday if you had a "safe bet" on either new zealand to beat france, or australia to beat england, or during the week, liverpool to beat marseille, or ac milan to beat celtic, all those 4 matches were odds-on favourites (sure bets) that lost in the last 5 days alone! all it takes is a single loss to completely wipe out everything. It won't work - sorry ;-)

Pj!

You're betting on a 100/1 shot. Simple as that.

If it involves 1 bet or 55 bets, turning £5 into £500 represents a 100/1 shot.
I can't see it happening for ya, but if it does, these negative posts will make it all the sweeter.

eirebhoy

You're basically doing an accumulator Mike. Fair play to you if you win but very rarely do people win on accumulators with 10+ selections no matter how sure they are.

mike65

True, even yesterday Celtic nearly blew it for me at the first hurdle but thats gambling for you!

Okay I've just put it all on Cork City to beat UCD at Belfield. :gulp:

Cork City-27-13-9----5--39/26--48

UCD---- -27-7--9----11--29/34--30

Mike.

spanner_head

happy days mike....

mike65

08/10/2007 Bet returns €39.88
08/10/2007 Bet stake -€21.75
07/10/2007 Bet returns €21.75
07/10/2007 Bet stake -€16.31
07/10/2007 Bet returns €11.31
03/10/2007 Bet stake -€5.00

Mike.

ErinGoBrath

Take your 40 quid and run Mike!

The only place your winnings are going to end up is in the bookies pocket. Best of luck anyway.

windy bee

Your best bet Mike is to take your money and go, I won close to €1000 betting long odds on in Tennis, put €900 on Yeats at 1-3 (certainty right!) and lost. Did another €500 treble at 1-25, 1-33 and 1-8, the 1-33 lost in straight sets to a Wildcard. Making money in the long term is very, very hard thats why the Bookies are opening shops all over the place, to take it off people like us.

smashey

Good thread Mike. To all you naysayers here, let him keep going. He's only using a fiver.

Bubs101

windy bee wrote:

Your best bet Mike is to take your money and go, I won close to €1000 betting long odds on in Tennis, put €900 on Yeats at 1-3 (certainty right!) and lost. Did another €500 treble at 1-25, 1-33 and 1-8, the 1-33 lost in straight sets to a Wildcard. Making money in the long term is very, very hard thats why the Bookies are opening shops all over the place, to take it off people like us.

Tennis is normally very predictable if you know your surface but Windy is right, you'll eventually lose. Chelsea didn't beat Rosenberg is a good example that there are no certs, Now France South Africa final on the other hand ....:rolleyes:

shiibata

windy bee wrote:

Your best bet Mike is to take your money and go, I won close to €1000 betting long odds on in Tennis, put €900 on Yeats at 1-3 (certainty right!) and lost. Did another €500 treble at 1-25, 1-33 and 1-8, the 1-33 lost in straight sets to a Wildcard. Making money in the long term is very, very hard thats why the Bookies are opening shops all over the place, to take it off people like us.

stay well away from the tennis, sure andy murray said yesterday that tennis has a lot of fixing going on at moment,

county

smashey wrote:

Good thread Mike. To all you naysayers here, let him keep going. He's only using a fiver.

seconded,mikes doing well atm,would be nice to see him reach his target

raheny red

county wrote:

seconded,mikes doing well atm,would be nice to see him reach his target

Yup exactly, only started with a fiver - just go for it :cool:

hotspur

county wrote:

seconded,mikes doing well atm,would be nice to see him reach his target

And what do you think someone like that will do with his €500?
a) make a really good decision
b) give it to the 1st guy who comes along with magic beans?

His actual odds of winning will turn out to be much worse than 100/1 by the way, although that's his pay out.

county

hotspur wrote:

And what do you think someone like that will do with his €500?

who knows what mike would do if he made his target,a round of drinks is probably out of the question,rumour is he`s a bit of a tight bastard;)

mike65

And what do you think someone like that will do with his €500?

Love to know what that means!

500 euros would pay for one years road tax or car insurance or all my telecoms/tv/refuse/etc for 12 months. On the other hand if I make it to the magic number I may just roll it over again just to piss some people off!

Mike.

wb

Best of luck Mike, as long as you don't try to loss chase it's only a bit of fun. It's amazing though, how many 'sure' bets go under. I researched how many odds on horses go under and it was quite surprising:

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?t=1394

What you're doing is more of an accumulator though, so It's not quite the same.

mike65

I'd cut my legs off before betting on nags, I bet on what I understand and using "context psychology". ie don't bet on a final or a cup tie or an end of season 'top plays bottom' type game. Local derbys are another no-no.

Mike.

Killme00

Forky wrote:

You're betting on a 100/1 shot. Simple as that.

If it involves 1 bet or 55 bets, turning £5 into £500 represents a 100/1 shot.
I can't see it happening for ya, but if it does, these negative posts will make it all the sweeter.

This is nonsense and also not how probability works. Are you more likely to win one 100/1 shot or one thousand 1/10 shots.


OP you should consider spliiting the bet once you reach a specified level. IE when you have 50 instead of betting 50 on one result bet 25 on one long odds result and 25 on another.

zuutroy

Killme00 wrote:

This is nonsense and also not how probability works. Are you more likely to win one 100/1 shot or one thousand 1/10 shots.

Uh, thats exactly how it works!......both of those are equally likely...

badbrian

Just to add a different perspective to this.

I would assume this is being done with a bookie and as we all know the bookie needs his margin.
Every bet you make the bookie takes his commission. To simplify it. Say you take a fiver and put it on a 3/1 4/1 and 4/1. If a bookie is offering these odds the real probabibility is probably 3.3 4.4 and 4.4 to 1. Therefore to get 500 you are actually making bets with accumulated odds of 124/1.
If you put a fiver on a 100/1 assuming the same margin the real probability is 110/1. In a sense the more bets you less value you are getting.

just a thought.

mike65

My method is not the same as banging down a fiver on a 100-1 shot, I'm reducing the chance of failing greatly by betting on a succession of odds-on bets.

Killme00 wrote:

OP you should consider spliiting the bet once you reach a specified level. IE when you have 50 instead of betting 50 on one result bet 25 on one long odds result and 25 on another.

Yeah I thought about that, but I won't start long odds, it'll be slow and steady (wins the race).

Mike.

zuutroy

It doesn't matter that they're odds on, the risk of failure is just as great. The ONLY was to succeed at gambling is to find a price that represents value, whether that be something you think should be 1/5 thats priced at 1/3, or something that you think should be at 90/1 thats at 100/1.

hotspur

Mike you are way way off in your thinking that betting many many odds on shots reduces your chances of losing.

Firstly football betting is not a question of mere probability, this isn't a casino game like roulette here, it is not a question of pure maths. The price a bookie gives, as badbrian points out, is worse than the chances the bookmaker believes the team has of winning.

You would have a better chance of succeeding by putting your €5 on a maths based 100-1 game than you have of your current task of betting many many odds on favourites at worse prices than their real odds of occurring.

The fact that you think you are reducing the odds shows that you do not understand even basic probability, never mind how bookmaking works. As Zuutroy points out winning 100/1 once has the exact same chance of winning 1/10 a thousand times in a game of pure probability.

We're not bashing you out of meanness, just pointing out that you don't understand the nature of what you are doing very well. Since this is a gambling forum, that's probably fair enough right?

mike65

Ah sure beginners luck it is then!

My next bet is a League 2 double which, if it comes off will return €110 from 40.

Mike.

Dave!

When ye make your first million let us know (SO WE CAN TELL YOU TO STOP!!!)

sitout

mike65 wrote:

Ah sure beginners luck it is then!

My next bet is a League 2 double which, if it comes off will return €110 from 40.

Mike.

that does not sound like a very odds on bet to me

badbrian

In the interests of transparency are we going to be advised of the League 2 teams playing on your behalf?