Turning 5 euro into 500, by rolling over "safe" bets.

mike65

Is it possible?

I've decided to find out!

I put said money on a treble match bet in the Prem/Scot Prem today which returned €11.31. That money plus the 5 (€16.31) is now on Argentina at 1/3 which will return about €21.00.

I'm going to keep rolling over the total until I get rich or loose the lot in one go.

After the Argentina win I have €21.75c

07/10/2007

---

Bet returns €21.75
07/10/2007

---

Bet stake-€16.31
07/10/2007

---

Bet returns €11.31
03/10/2007

---

Bet stake-€5.00

Small steps but in the right direction.

Mike.

county

best of luck with that mike

RuggieBear

/me subscribes

i might try the same. I've taken my last euro on paddypower and got it up to 10.99 betting on the world cup.

BrandonBlock

These kind of things always fail at some point, say for example yesterday if you had a "safe bet" on either new zealand to beat france, or australia to beat england, or during the week, liverpool to beat marseille, or ac milan to beat celtic, all those 4 matches were odds-on favourites (sure bets) that lost in the last 5 days alone! all it takes is a single loss to completely wipe out everything. It won't work - sorry ;-)

Pj!

You're betting on a 100/1 shot. Simple as that.

If it involves 1 bet or 55 bets, turning £5 into £500 represents a 100/1 shot.
I can't see it happening for ya, but if it does, these negative posts will make it all the sweeter.

eirebhoy

You're basically doing an accumulator Mike. Fair play to you if you win but very rarely do people win on accumulators with 10+ selections no matter how sure they are.

mike65

True, even yesterday Celtic nearly blew it for me at the first hurdle but thats gambling for you!

Okay I've just put it all on Cork City to beat UCD at Belfield. :gulp:

Cork City-27-13-9----5--39/26--48

UCD---- -27-7--9----11--29/34--30

Mike.

spanner_head

happy days mike....

mike65

08/10/2007 Bet returns €39.88
08/10/2007 Bet stake -€21.75
07/10/2007 Bet returns €21.75
07/10/2007 Bet stake -€16.31
07/10/2007 Bet returns €11.31
03/10/2007 Bet stake -€5.00

Mike.

ErinGoBrath

Take your 40 quid and run Mike!

The only place your winnings are going to end up is in the bookies pocket. Best of luck anyway.

windy bee

Your best bet Mike is to take your money and go, I won close to €1000 betting long odds on in Tennis, put €900 on Yeats at 1-3 (certainty right!) and lost. Did another €500 treble at 1-25, 1-33 and 1-8, the 1-33 lost in straight sets to a Wildcard. Making money in the long term is very, very hard thats why the Bookies are opening shops all over the place, to take it off people like us.

smashey

Good thread Mike. To all you naysayers here, let him keep going. He's only using a fiver.

Bubs101

windy bee wrote:

Your best bet Mike is to take your money and go, I won close to €1000 betting long odds on in Tennis, put €900 on Yeats at 1-3 (certainty right!) and lost. Did another €500 treble at 1-25, 1-33 and 1-8, the 1-33 lost in straight sets to a Wildcard. Making money in the long term is very, very hard thats why the Bookies are opening shops all over the place, to take it off people like us.

Tennis is normally very predictable if you know your surface but Windy is right, you'll eventually lose. Chelsea didn't beat Rosenberg is a good example that there are no certs, Now France South Africa final on the other hand ....:rolleyes:

shiibata

windy bee wrote:

Your best bet Mike is to take your money and go, I won close to €1000 betting long odds on in Tennis, put €900 on Yeats at 1-3 (certainty right!) and lost. Did another €500 treble at 1-25, 1-33 and 1-8, the 1-33 lost in straight sets to a Wildcard. Making money in the long term is very, very hard thats why the Bookies are opening shops all over the place, to take it off people like us.

stay well away from the tennis, sure andy murray said yesterday that tennis has a lot of fixing going on at moment,

county

smashey wrote:

Good thread Mike. To all you naysayers here, let him keep going. He's only using a fiver.

seconded,mikes doing well atm,would be nice to see him reach his target

raheny red

county wrote:

seconded,mikes doing well atm,would be nice to see him reach his target

Yup exactly, only started with a fiver - just go for it :cool:

hotspur

county wrote:

seconded,mikes doing well atm,would be nice to see him reach his target

And what do you think someone like that will do with his €500?
a) make a really good decision
b) give it to the 1st guy who comes along with magic beans?

His actual odds of winning will turn out to be much worse than 100/1 by the way, although that's his pay out.

county

hotspur wrote:

And what do you think someone like that will do with his €500?

who knows what mike would do if he made his target,a round of drinks is probably out of the question,rumour is he`s a bit of a tight bastard;)

mike65

And what do you think someone like that will do with his €500?

Love to know what that means!

500 euros would pay for one years road tax or car insurance or all my telecoms/tv/refuse/etc for 12 months. On the other hand if I make it to the magic number I may just roll it over again just to piss some people off!

Mike.

wb

Best of luck Mike, as long as you don't try to loss chase it's only a bit of fun. It's amazing though, how many 'sure' bets go under. I researched how many odds on horses go under and it was quite surprising:

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?t=1394

What you're doing is more of an accumulator though, so It's not quite the same.

mike65

I'd cut my legs off before betting on nags, I bet on what I understand and using "context psychology". ie don't bet on a final or a cup tie or an end of season 'top plays bottom' type game. Local derbys are another no-no.

Mike.

Killme00

Forky wrote:

You're betting on a 100/1 shot. Simple as that.

If it involves 1 bet or 55 bets, turning £5 into £500 represents a 100/1 shot.
I can't see it happening for ya, but if it does, these negative posts will make it all the sweeter.

This is nonsense and also not how probability works. Are you more likely to win one 100/1 shot or one thousand 1/10 shots.


OP you should consider spliiting the bet once you reach a specified level. IE when you have 50 instead of betting 50 on one result bet 25 on one long odds result and 25 on another.

zuutroy

Killme00 wrote:

This is nonsense and also not how probability works. Are you more likely to win one 100/1 shot or one thousand 1/10 shots.

Uh, thats exactly how it works!......both of those are equally likely...

badbrian

Just to add a different perspective to this.

I would assume this is being done with a bookie and as we all know the bookie needs his margin.
Every bet you make the bookie takes his commission. To simplify it. Say you take a fiver and put it on a 3/1 4/1 and 4/1. If a bookie is offering these odds the real probabibility is probably 3.3 4.4 and 4.4 to 1. Therefore to get 500 you are actually making bets with accumulated odds of 124/1.
If you put a fiver on a 100/1 assuming the same margin the real probability is 110/1. In a sense the more bets you less value you are getting.

just a thought.

mike65

My method is not the same as banging down a fiver on a 100-1 shot, I'm reducing the chance of failing greatly by betting on a succession of odds-on bets.

Killme00 wrote:

OP you should consider spliiting the bet once you reach a specified level. IE when you have 50 instead of betting 50 on one result bet 25 on one long odds result and 25 on another.

Yeah I thought about that, but I won't start long odds, it'll be slow and steady (wins the race).

Mike.

zuutroy

It doesn't matter that they're odds on, the risk of failure is just as great. The ONLY was to succeed at gambling is to find a price that represents value, whether that be something you think should be 1/5 thats priced at 1/3, or something that you think should be at 90/1 thats at 100/1.

hotspur

Mike you are way way off in your thinking that betting many many odds on shots reduces your chances of losing.

Firstly football betting is not a question of mere probability, this isn't a casino game like roulette here, it is not a question of pure maths. The price a bookie gives, as badbrian points out, is worse than the chances the bookmaker believes the team has of winning.

You would have a better chance of succeeding by putting your €5 on a maths based 100-1 game than you have of your current task of betting many many odds on favourites at worse prices than their real odds of occurring.

The fact that you think you are reducing the odds shows that you do not understand even basic probability, never mind how bookmaking works. As Zuutroy points out winning 100/1 once has the exact same chance of winning 1/10 a thousand times in a game of pure probability.

We're not bashing you out of meanness, just pointing out that you don't understand the nature of what you are doing very well. Since this is a gambling forum, that's probably fair enough right?

mike65

Ah sure beginners luck it is then!

My next bet is a League 2 double which, if it comes off will return €110 from 40.

Mike.

Dave!

When ye make your first million let us know (SO WE CAN TELL YOU TO STOP!!!)

sitout

mike65 wrote:

Ah sure beginners luck it is then!

My next bet is a League 2 double which, if it comes off will return €110 from 40.

Mike.

that does not sound like a very odds on bet to me

badbrian

In the interests of transparency are we going to be advised of the League 2 teams playing on your behalf?

wba88

Maybe throw it on dundalk tonight?

raheny red

wba88 wrote: »

Maybe throw it on dundalk tonight?

I reckon Monaghan will nick the draw.

mike65

badbrian

MK Dons and Barnet to win they are 1st and 6th in the league playing teams who occupy the last two places in the division.

badbrian

Can't argue with them. I was trying something similar last year. I got a 20 euro credit on one of my accounts. I got it up to about 90 (not too spectacular I'll grant you) and then did a Wednesday night double on Derby and Sunderland who were top and charging up the Championship at home. Surprisingly it was Sunderland who let me down.

mike65

Dundalk beat Monaghan

Mike.

raheny red

mike65 wrote: »

Dundalk beat Monaghan

Mike.

Nice one. But I felt Dundalk were at a ridiculously short price.

Pighead

raheny red wrote: »

Nice one. But I felt Dundalk were at a ridiculously short price.

Why? 4/11 sounded about right to me. Dundalk haven't been beating in Oriel Park yet this season! Last nights win makes it 8 home wins in a row when playing sides in the bottom half and they haven't conceded a single goal. Not to mention the fact Dundalk beat Monaghan 3-1 the last tiem they played in Oriel.

Last 8 matches against teams in the bottom half= 1-0 4-0 2-0 3-0 2-0 3-0 3-0 1-0.
If anything that price was a tad on the generous side.

badbrian

unlucky. not bad entertainment value for a fiver when you think about it.

yayamark

Funny thing, i was at this for the last couple of months with paddy power but what i was doin was a bit strange but passed away boredom.

When team a were beating team b 1-0 with 20 minutes to go id put a 5 or 7 euro bet on team a. short odds i know but i'd be a t this over a period of weeks. As i said this was purely to pass the time and not to buy a ferrari.

At times id be successful at times i wasnt. What i used to do was take out a percentage say 20% of my winnings every time, this was just to soften the blow for when the inevitable happens.

Most i ever got up to was about 300 quid on about a tenner, but i sometimes got cocky and sometimes the absoloute certanties let me down big time

What i also used to do was as well was bet a hundred quid on a 20 to 1 on. wow i hear u say i made a fiver but id take out the hundred quid straight away afterand start with that fiver

How much have i now? A big fat 0.
Did i lose more than i won? yes.
Did it break me? no.
Did i enjoy it? When i was winning.

Biggest tip i could give anyone

---

Put a limit on your account! Most i could bet in aday was a hundred quid.

Havent put a bet on in about a month cause im broke at the moment. Severly tempted with all the sport at the moment

I actually thought i had an addiction but thankfully i think i dont

mike65

Barnet let me down! They were held to a 1-1 draw, so thats my big adventure in "odds" over for now.

Mike.

BrandonBlock

BrandonBlock wrote: »

These kind of things always fail at some point, say for example yesterday if you had a "safe bet" on either new zealand to beat france, or australia to beat england, or during the week, liverpool to beat marseille, or ac milan to beat celtic, all those 4 matches were odds-on favourites (sure bets) that lost in the last 5 days alone! all it takes is a single loss to completely wipe out everything. It won't work - sorry ;-)

.

besty

Noone likes a smug repost of their own point - except for said poster that is.

Wisesmurf

Here some encouragement Mike.

I did similar at the start of last season’s premiership. I deposited €20 online and the goal was to withdraw €500 at the end on the season. I wasn’t, however, rolling the balance up on one transaction. I was placing 35-40% of my balance on a single and the rest on doubles and craziness. My idea was to look at one good value single which I thought would win as insurance and with the other 60% of my balance place a double with a portion and go crazy with the rest (4-folds and above).

For the first few weeks I looked at the weeks games on a Friday and staked my entire balance on the above style of bets covering prem games. Call it luck, skill or whatever but after say week 6 or so I had circa €300 in my account and stopped going crazy and committing huge portions of my balance per week.

By the end of the season I had a bit over the €500 I had targeted but a mixture of things happened:

Withdrawing: I deposited with a laser card and the company I was betting with didn’t allow you to withdraw to laser. I was offered the option of a cheque (which would take 3 weeks to arrive) a bank transfer, no thanks or withdraw through there shops to a max of €200 a day.

Mentality: I had the mentality constantly 'at the end of the day it’s only €20'.The figure on the screen didn’t feel real and I didn’t really care if I lost it all.

I left the cash in there over the summer and when I went on hols this year I went to a baseball game and got into that so when I came home I started betting a bit on that (small stakes) and ran the balance up to nearly 1k just as the premier league season started. Still didn’t withdraw and started again.

My best football result this season is a return of €514.88 for a stake of €30.00 on this bet

1
European
Milan vs Benfica
Match betting
2007-09-18 19:45:00
Milan @ 4/11
Win

2
European
Porto vs Liverpool
Match betting
2007-09-18 19:45:00
Draw @ 21/10
Win

3
European
Real Madrid vs Werder Bremen
Match betting
2007-09-18 19:45:00
Real Madrid @ 2/5
Win

4
European
Schalke vs Valencia
Match betting
2007-09-18 19:45:00
Valencia @ 19/10
Win
I have over €1600 in my account now and I'm just about to withdraw the majority of it and start again (still have the same pains with the feckers letting me withdraw)

At the end of the day its a bit of craic, it improves your memory of obscure results from games from 6 months ago that you wouldn’t remember otherwise, gives you added interest in games you generally wouldn’t really care about and its all for (in my case) €20.

How about setting up a little league, everyone starts at the same balance and we track people’s balances for a fixed period of time with nothing up for grabs other than the prestige for the top earner.

yayamark

ya sounds good €20 is good

Betcha i wont win:D

ErinGoBrath

Wisesmurf wrote: »

My best football result this season is a return of €514.88 for a stake of €30.00 on this bet

1
European
Milan vs Benfica
Match betting
2007-09-18 19:45:00
Milan @ 4/11
Win

2
European
Porto vs Liverpool
Match betting
2007-09-18 19:45:00
Draw @ 21/10
Win

3
European
Real Madrid vs Werder Bremen
Match betting
2007-09-18 19:45:00
Real Madrid @ 2/5
Win

4
European
Schalke vs Valencia
Match betting
2007-09-18 19:45:00
Valencia @ 19/10
Win

That's a cracking bet you landed there mate. Well done.

Pighead

mike65 wrote: »

Barnet let me down! They were held to a 1-1 draw, so thats my big adventure in "odds" over for now.

Mike.

Unlucky Mike. Just read the match report on the BBC. A late penalty miss and a hit post for Barnet. Its all about fractions this game.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_3/7031487.stm

Oh and BrandonBlock, you're a spanner.

Aedh Baclamh

He's not really. For some bizzare reason people need to be reminded that these things will not work.

Pighead

Aedh Baclamh wrote: »

He's not really. For some bizzare reason people need to be reminded that these things will not work.

Fcuk that. Mike came on here, livened the forum up a bit with a self set challenge to turn 5 quid into 500. At no point did he claim his plan was foolproof and at no point did he come across as cocky or knobbish.

All the "seasoned" gamblers came on board throwing out their pearls of wisdoms in condescending tones and foreboding words not seeming to realise that he was only spending a fiver and that it made for a decent thread.

So yeah Block is a spanner.

smashey

Aedh Baclamh wrote: »

He's not really. For some bizzare reason people need to be reminded that these things will not work.

Look, he used a fiver. He told us what he was trying. I'm pretty sure he knew it wouldn't be easy. Is there a problem with trying?

Aedh Baclamh

Unfortunately for you Pighead it didn't actually make for an interesting thread. So BrandonBlock's point is still quite valid.