Dean (4)

Trogdor

Very fast intensification, Cat 4 now. NHC has it hitting Cat 5 in 36 hours, maybe quicker though
WTNT44 KNHC 180305
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

...CORRECTED ERRONEOUS INDICATOR OF INLAND AT 96 HOURS IN TABLE...

DEAN HAS BEEN STEADILY INTENSIFYING TONIGHT. THE U.S. AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 138 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 124 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE AIRCRAFT IS EQUIPPED WITH THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WHICH MEASURED WINDS AS STRONG AS 123 KT THIS
EVENING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN
DROPPING...WITH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENT BEING 937 MB. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THE
STORM HAS BECOME A GOOD BIT LARGER...AND WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DEAN MIGHT ALSO HAVE A CLOSE ENCOUNTER
WITH NOAA BUOY 42059...LESS THAN 100 N MI DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...IN A FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
BEFORE. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS NOTABLY
DISAGREE AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN OUTLYING GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HOWEVER...HAS
NOT CHANGED NOTICEABLY...SINCE THE MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE
OTHER WAY. THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES TYPICAL OF THOSE
LONGER FORECAST RANGES. THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT AND
GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ALSO REFLECT
THESE UNCERTAINTIES. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
SIMILAR AT EACH LOCATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DIFFERENTIATE
THE RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF DEAN...GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND WARM WATERS
AHEAD...WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES
AND/OR BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR AN INTENSITY NEAR THE CATEGORY 4/5 THRESHOLD THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND IS ONLY LOWERED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO POTENTIAL
PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.9N 65.9W 125 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W 135 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W 135 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W 135 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 110 KT...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO
EDIT: Good eye forming there
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

sirpsycho

updated... 150mph winds now

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND SOUTH OF HAITI TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN COULD HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAINS AS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE AND WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH....122
KM/HR AS DEAN MOVED NEARBY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.4 N...67.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

sirpsycho

Latest satellite pics:
http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

http://www.hurricanezone.net/#04l

rc28

Dean is now just "6mph shy" of being a category 5 hurricane;
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
Dean is now a main news story in the media:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/18/storms/index.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293702,00.html
But of course they'd never mention the category 5 supertyphoon Sepat that hit Taiwan last night because it's not a threat to the US;
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/11687.aspx
http://www.rambocam.com/

Takeshi_Kovacs

rc28 wrote:

Dean is now just "6mph shy" of being a category 5 hurricane;
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
Dean is now a main news story in the media:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/18/storms/index.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293702,00.html
But of course they'd never mention the category 5 supertyphoon Sepat that hit Taiwan last night because it's not a threat to the US;
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/11687.aspx
http://www.rambocam.com/

Yeah we never seem to hear much about Pacific Typhoons, even though they are more frequent than Atlantic hurricanes.
Nice links, especially the last one. The floods shown on that site are amazing, and very scary looking

Snowbie

rc28 wrote:

But of course they'd never mention the category 5 supertyphoon Sepat that hit Taiwan last night because it's not a threat to the US

Yep agree,they tend to do that in the US media but also in Katrina's case they didnt heed the warnings either.All pointed the fingers at FEMA while the Bush fellow sitting at his ranch in Texas planning his next invasion.:mad:

I'm not too interested in the US media as like all other media is just hype.They already mentioned on another forum Dean will become the first Cat6.:rolleyes: on the saffir/simpson scale.

On the weather channel, they have the best coverage of Typhoon,Cyclones and in our case Hurricanes,no matter where on the planet.They have there own reporters that actually get in harms way to report.Totally focused on the met stuff and is not BS hype from the US media.Good source of info imo.

http://www.weather.com/

Dean close to Cat5 without a regenerating a new eyewall.Will lose intensity if this happens but will pick up again.Usually the norm to have several replacing walls but its the first time that i've heard about a Cat5 without regenerating.

fatherdougalmag

Where's Billy the Squid in all this?
The Army Corps of Engineers were testing one of the canals in New Orleans this week.

Snowbie

Trough of LP over Florida moving westwards could possibly steer Dean up on a more NW or N track.Models dont pick this up and is quiet possible it can happen.Texas or Louisiana not out of the picture yet.

rc28

Here is an excellent site to follow Dean's (and other hurricanes) progress. They have a live video stream which I'm watching right now and it gives you the very latest info. As it aproaches Jamaica they have lots of webcam links from jamaica on their home page so you can watch the weather get worse, they also have links to local media and radio streams too which they do for every hurricane, excellent website.
Main page;http://hurricanecity.com/
Live stream(opens in windows media player);http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx
They were talking about how Jamaicans don't realise the danger from Dean as the media haven't woken up, their radio stations just keep playing music and don't mention it!

Wertz

The US media is getting a bit of a slating in here so I just thought I'd mention that I had some CNN show on last night where they went into detail about Sepat and it's impact in Taiwan and it's imminent arrival in SE China....fair enough, this was as an aside to the main show in the carribean but to be fair, most Americans just don't bloody well care what's happening outside their "backyard"...maybe some of that can be attributed to their media predominatingly concentrating on domestic issues and stories...in such a big country that will fill up a lot of news bulletins; ourselves and the UK manage to fill a lot of ours up with domestic crap and we're only a fraction of the size and populace.

Anyway, on topic, first rain bands are about to cross the jamaican shore...Haiti been getting a battering all night.
Like snowbie, I too reckon a SE TX hit, maybe near Brownsville, or this could just spin up the coast and create havoc from offshore. I'm not basing that on anything but watching the track so far and seeing what the yucatan does to storms.

rc28

Wertz wrote:

The US media is getting a bit of a slating in here so I just thought I'd mention that I had some CNN show on last night where they went into detail about Sepat and it's impact in Taiwan and it's imminent arrival in SE China....fair enough

The cnn that you see on tv outside of the US is cnn international and is completely different to the cnn americans see.

Wertz

rc28 wrote:

The cnn that you see on tv outside of the US is cnn international and is completely different to the cnn americans see.

Good point...but if you listen to the BBC world service you'll hear a substantially different news than you would tuning into any of the domestic services...that doesn't mean that the UK media hasn't covered a story, only that they've not given any airtime to it in the UK....why would a country the size of the 'States be any different?
The point is that if yanks care enough about what's going on outside of their own backyard, they need only change channel or surf to an international news site. But why would they give more airtime to a storm halfways round the world when there's one maybe equally as destructive banging on their own front door?

On topic, (and read from CNN international's site) seems that sepat has spawned a tornado that has claimed 14 lives.
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/08/19/taiwan.typhoon.reut/index.html

rc28

Hitting Jamaica now since 10pm irish time. The eye wall is skirting the southern tip of the island
http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx
http://www.stormvideographer.com/blog/

Snowbie

The upper trough has outran Dean so no steering up towards the US but Texas coastline mainly with the Mexican border still a posibility of a direct hit.Otherwise more unwanted rain for that area yet again.

Dean went through a couple of eyewall replacements and still has maintained 145mph sustained winds.The SW portion of the island(Jamaica) will be hit by the inner eye for sure,so devastation here a certainty.Cayman islands are in the firing line next and then onto Yucatan with Conzumel and Cancun a possible direct hit yet again as maybe a Cat5.Wilma destroyed these islands 2 yrs ago.

After that,Dean will re-emerge into the Gulf as a strong Cat2 probably and regain a Cat3 before hitting the Gulf coastline.

Dean last pressure reading of 918mb-920mb.
145mph with higher gusts.

Snowbie

Dean upgraded to a Cat5 160mph about to make landfall in Yucatan.

Big Tone

Has been downgraded to a Cat 3 now after landfall resistance in Yucatan.

rc28

Off topic but back to typhoon sepat- there is some incredible footage of it here;http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/11787.aspx
It was filmed by a uk stormchaser.

Snowbie

Dean the first Cat5 hurricane to make landfall since Andrew 1992.Pressure got down to 905mb and 165mph winds in the northern eyewall.

Now a Cat2 and should reach a strong Cat2 or maybe Cat3 over the bay of Campeche before another landfall in Mexico again.

Takeshi_Kovacs

rc28 wrote:

Off topic but back to typhoon sepat- there is some incredible footage of it here;http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/11787.aspx
It was filmed by a uk stormchaser.

Pretty amazing video footage alright.... really makes me want to see a hurricane/typhoon up close some day... as dangerous as it is.

Snowbie

Meanwhile the tropics are quiet again

A brief history of Dean:

Dean developed in the eastern tropical Atlantic and moved westward toward the Lesser Antilles by Friday, August 17 as a Category 2 hurricane. The islands of Martinique, St. Lucia and Dominica were especially hard hit.

From there, Dean pushed through the eastern Caribbean and impacted Jamaica as a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday, August 19. The island was hit with high winds and heavy rain. Winds gusted as high as 138 mph in Kingston.

Hurricane Dean made its first landfall around 3:30 am (Central Time) Tuesday with 165 mile per hour winds near Costa Maya, Mexico. It is the first land falling category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992. Its pressure of 906 millibars is the third lowest pressure at landfall behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 in Cancun, Mexico.

The resorts of Cancun and Cozumel did not receive the full brunt of Hurricane Dean but tremendous waves (on the order of 15 to 25 feet) crashed along the shores resulting in severe beach erosion.

Dean emerged into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday afternoon as a category 1 hurricane. Dean strengthened over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and reached category 2 status. Thankfully, Dean was considerably weaker during its second landfall than it was Tuesday during its first landfall when it was a monster category 5 hurricane.

Dean made its second landfall about 40 miles south-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico at 11:30am (Central Time) along the coast of the Mexican state of Veracruz between the cities of Tampico and Veracruz. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were near 100 mph with a minimum central pressure of about 979 millibars.