Dean (4)

fatherdougalmag

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/satellite.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic&anim=1

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/112114.shtml wrote:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Trogdor

Indeed, now tropcal depresion 4
On course for puetro rico and the dominican republic, as it strenghens

Supercell

Looks like it has potential alright :-

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/131458.shtml

[snip]THE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN
THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE A STRONG REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ITSELF...FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMBINED WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE
GFDL FORECAST INTENSITY EXCEEDS 100 KT AT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN INDICATES A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE...BUT IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL.[/snip]

Wertz

Been watching this one since last night after I accidentally clicked the wrong sector button on EUMETSAT.
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=RGB,f=1,c=AIR,se=4,n=6,d=1,v=600,pp=0,t=200708121600#controls

You can see it starting to show outflow spikes no it's N flank...not seen spikes like that since Ivan a few years back.

Trogdor

Now Tropical storm Dean, heading for Florida.....


WTNT44 KNHC 141433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER
THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE
WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.

DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING
WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE
SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A
WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE
CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 11.7N 39.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.8N 42.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 11.8N 45.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 11.8N 48.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 12.0N 51.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 56.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 61.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 65.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Trogdor

Now looks like heading for the gulf, where Tropical Drepression 5 is already. If it comes off it's not going tobe good for oil prices


WTNT44 KNHC 150832
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN HAS MORE OF A BANDED
APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...IT MAY BE
THAT A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
STORM AND INFLOW FROM OVER THE COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH ARE
SLOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE EARLIER
QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN 275/16...UNCERTAIN DUE TO
AMSU MICROWAVE DATA HINTING THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE ADVISORY POSITION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEAN IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE... WITH A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
64W-77W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RIDGING PERSISTING
NORTH OF DEAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FROM
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TO A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER
BASED ON THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE NEW
TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
GFS.

DEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND WARM WATER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEAN COULD BE
NOTABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 12.2N 44.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.4N 46.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 12.8N 50.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.2N 53.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.8N 57.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 63.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 68.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 74.0W 100 KT

Snowbie

If it encounters the gulf which has SST of close to 30c,this will explode into a monster hurricane.It is on a long track so there always the possibility of more shear and drier air being sucked into the circulation.

With the other TD5 ahead of it,if this becomes a TS or Hurricane this will however decrease SST and could hamper Dean intensification futher on up in the gulf but signs are that it will make for the first major Hurricane of the season to threaten land regardless.

maquiladora

Pherekydes

trogdor wrote:

Now Tropical storm Dean, heading for Florida.....

Sorry to be picky, but isn't it heading for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba? Surely there's much more potential for death and destruction thereabouts?

Trogdor

Slow coach wrote:

Sorry to be picky, but isn't it heading for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba? Surely there's much more potential for death and destruction thereabouts?

Yes indeed, it just looked like it was heading for florida at that time and by the time it reaches the mainland it probably be a lot stronger

DapperGent

I arrived in Grenada last week. Just about to head into "town" and buy emergency food and water for three days, first aid stuff, flashlights etc and am eyeing up buildings pretending I have any idea what structural integrity looks like.

Kinda scary.

ro_chez

DapperGent wrote:

I arrived in Grenada last week. Just about to head into "town" and buy emergency food and water for three days, first aid stuff, flashlights etc and am eyeing up buildings pretending I have any idea what structural integrity looks like.

Kinda scary.

I'm heading to Tobago myself in about 2 weeks although I dont think it will be in the eye of the storm. Should be long gone by then anyway. Hope all goes well DapperGent.

Trogdor

DapperGent wrote:

I arrived in Grenada last week. Just about to head into "town" and buy emergency food and water for three days, first aid stuff, flashlights etc and am eyeing up buildings pretending I have any idea what structural integrity looks like.

Kinda scary.

Latest NHC track takes it a bit too close for comfort alright, looks nice over there heat wise though, 30C and 31C. Look foward to more reports Dapper:)

maquiladora

Look out Jamaica...

Trogdor

maquiladora wrote:

Look out Jamaica...

She'll be strong by then alright, or he:o

000
WTNT44 KNHC 151435
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUD PATTERN. HINTS OF A BANDING EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN ON
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A
BLEND OF TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND AMSU/AODT
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/17. A STRONG
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF DEAN AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMERICAL TRACK
FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL
MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THREE DAYS...THE FATE OF THE STORM WILL BE PARTIALLY
CONTROLLED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A LOW AND HEAD WESTWARD
UNDER A BUILDING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FARTHER AWAY FROM DEAN WITH STRONGER
RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAN IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK IN THE LONG-RANGE..AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN
THAT DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BY ALL MODELS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STORM START TO RISE. THE ONLY
NEGATING FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE THE ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEAN WILL BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS ALL
FORECAST DEAN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 5...AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.4N 46.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.1N 52.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 55.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.2N 59.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 72.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 78.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/151435.shtml?

Snowbie

WInds are just below minimal Hurricane strenght at 70mph.It should be classed as Hurricane later on today.

maquiladora

Dean is now a Hurricane, and on it's way to becoming a big one...should reach Cat 4, even Cat 5 is possible.

ch750536

Any satellite pics?

fatherdougalmag

The NHC floaters.

DapperGent

Looks like we've had a close shave in Grenada not even a tropical storm watch at this point, I'm a little bit disappointed in a way I'm stupid enough to have liked to have seen it. Though I'm sure if I'd been here when Ivan hit my feelings would be total and utter relief like just about everyone else who lives here.

Snowbie

lol,i knew you would have likin to see it.Didnt want to say anything yesterday as you where in the direct path of it.I had an encounter with Hurricane(cat1) Gordon 10 odd years ago in Florida and was a tad gusty and wet even though i was 350 miles from the eye wall.Trust me,Its all very exciting when you know its going to miss you.Hows the surfing,be some wave action over there.:D

Dean predicted to get to Cat 4 before hitting the Yucatan peninsula and then onto Central America.

maquiladora

Models are fairly consistent in showing a Yuc hit but the GFDL takes it up into the Gulf. Still a good while to go so anything could happen.

Trogdor

Yes most run it into Yucatan, CLP5 takes it across Cuba. GDFL also has it at Cat5 strengh by T+90:eek:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081612-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=090hr
...and continuing to strenghen

Supercell

From past experience, i'd take these path predictions with a huge pinch of salt further than a day or two out.
That said there is little doubt Dean has serious potential to do massive damage, going to be fascinating watching him grow and continue to develop.

DapperGent

Probably get some tropical storm conditions from the edge of it tomorrow morning (AST) at some point, the hurricane shelters are open for business and everyone is being warned not to be eejits.

Funniest bit so far was the kinda reggae/calypso weather forecast on one of the radio stations:

*music*
Hurricane Dean strenghtenin
*music*
Sustained windspeeds of XX
*music*
Minimum central pressure of XX
*music*
etc. etc.

Snowbie

Cat 2 now with 100mph winds.Storm moving west at a fast 23mph.
Moving into caribean sea should slowly intensify but its the encounter with the gulf of Mexico warmer waters,this will power it up to a Cat 4.

rc28

Cat 3 now;
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
Apparently it's on course to hit the US coast (after brushing lots of caribbean islands and maybe yucatan), probably texas which really doesn't need any more rain after all their recent flooding. Someone on another forum said it will reach category 5 status before it reaches america.

Wertz

The real danger with systems that make it past the disturbance of the yucatan pen. is that they get into a warm shallow GoM and can intensify a lot before landfall...and a stallled system in that part of the gulf can just spin like a top and head off in any direction after building itself...

fatherdougalmag

GFDL likes to take it more north than west and it's out on its own but the NHC discussion says:

NHC wrote:

THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY.

Snowbie

But also GFDL brings it close to western Louisiana(New Orleans territory) more as a rain maker and away from hurricane winds but still a threat for renewed flooding as SE winds would push the surge onshore more than Katrina.Surely if this is the case that GFDL is as accurate as they say,they would want to act upon this on the safe side of precaution now.

Unfortunately Jamaica looks like a direct hit and after that the cayman Islands.Its when it passes through or close to these areas that the path be more determined.Otherwise models are usually inaccurate this far out.Which one would you believe?
Saying that,this storm has no threats from shearing or drier air to weaken, it and is going where it wants to for now and intensifying.

maquiladora

Latest GFDL track is scary. Long way to go, but if that comes to pass....