Dean (4)

fatherdougalmag

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/satellite.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic&anim=1

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/112114.shtml wrote:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Trogdor

Indeed, now tropcal depresion 4
On course for puetro rico and the dominican republic, as it strenghens

Supercell

Looks like it has potential alright :-

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/131458.shtml

[snip]THE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN
THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE A STRONG REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ITSELF...FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMBINED WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE
GFDL FORECAST INTENSITY EXCEEDS 100 KT AT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN INDICATES A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE...BUT IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL.[/snip]

Wertz

Been watching this one since last night after I accidentally clicked the wrong sector button on EUMETSAT.
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=RGB,f=1,c=AIR,se=4,n=6,d=1,v=600,pp=0,t=200708121600#controls

You can see it starting to show outflow spikes no it's N flank...not seen spikes like that since Ivan a few years back.

Trogdor

Now Tropical storm Dean, heading for Florida.....


WTNT44 KNHC 141433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER
THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE
WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.

DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING
WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE
SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A
WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE
CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 11.7N 39.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.8N 42.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 11.8N 45.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 11.8N 48.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 12.0N 51.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 56.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 61.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 65.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Trogdor

Now looks like heading for the gulf, where Tropical Drepression 5 is already. If it comes off it's not going tobe good for oil prices


WTNT44 KNHC 150832
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN HAS MORE OF A BANDED
APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...IT MAY BE
THAT A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
STORM AND INFLOW FROM OVER THE COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH ARE
SLOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE EARLIER
QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN 275/16...UNCERTAIN DUE TO
AMSU MICROWAVE DATA HINTING THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE ADVISORY POSITION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEAN IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE... WITH A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
64W-77W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RIDGING PERSISTING
NORTH OF DEAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FROM
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TO A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER
BASED ON THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE NEW
TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
GFS.

DEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND WARM WATER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEAN COULD BE
NOTABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 12.2N 44.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.4N 46.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 12.8N 50.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.2N 53.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.8N 57.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 63.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 68.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 74.0W 100 KT

Snowbie

If it encounters the gulf which has SST of close to 30c,this will explode into a monster hurricane.It is on a long track so there always the possibility of more shear and drier air being sucked into the circulation.

With the other TD5 ahead of it,if this becomes a TS or Hurricane this will however decrease SST and could hamper Dean intensification futher on up in the gulf but signs are that it will make for the first major Hurricane of the season to threaten land regardless.

maquiladora

Pherekydes

trogdor wrote:

Now Tropical storm Dean, heading for Florida.....

Sorry to be picky, but isn't it heading for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba? Surely there's much more potential for death and destruction thereabouts?

Trogdor

Slow coach wrote:

Sorry to be picky, but isn't it heading for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba? Surely there's much more potential for death and destruction thereabouts?

Yes indeed, it just looked like it was heading for florida at that time and by the time it reaches the mainland it probably be a lot stronger

DapperGent

I arrived in Grenada last week. Just about to head into "town" and buy emergency food and water for three days, first aid stuff, flashlights etc and am eyeing up buildings pretending I have any idea what structural integrity looks like.

Kinda scary.

ro_chez

DapperGent wrote:

I arrived in Grenada last week. Just about to head into "town" and buy emergency food and water for three days, first aid stuff, flashlights etc and am eyeing up buildings pretending I have any idea what structural integrity looks like.

Kinda scary.

I'm heading to Tobago myself in about 2 weeks although I dont think it will be in the eye of the storm. Should be long gone by then anyway. Hope all goes well DapperGent.

Trogdor

DapperGent wrote:

I arrived in Grenada last week. Just about to head into "town" and buy emergency food and water for three days, first aid stuff, flashlights etc and am eyeing up buildings pretending I have any idea what structural integrity looks like.

Kinda scary.

Latest NHC track takes it a bit too close for comfort alright, looks nice over there heat wise though, 30C and 31C. Look foward to more reports Dapper:)

maquiladora

Look out Jamaica...

Trogdor

maquiladora wrote:

Look out Jamaica...

She'll be strong by then alright, or he:o

000
WTNT44 KNHC 151435
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUD PATTERN. HINTS OF A BANDING EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN ON
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A
BLEND OF TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND AMSU/AODT
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/17. A STRONG
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF DEAN AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMERICAL TRACK
FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL
MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THREE DAYS...THE FATE OF THE STORM WILL BE PARTIALLY
CONTROLLED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A LOW AND HEAD WESTWARD
UNDER A BUILDING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FARTHER AWAY FROM DEAN WITH STRONGER
RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAN IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK IN THE LONG-RANGE..AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN
THAT DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BY ALL MODELS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STORM START TO RISE. THE ONLY
NEGATING FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE THE ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEAN WILL BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS ALL
FORECAST DEAN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 5...AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.4N 46.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.1N 52.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 55.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.2N 59.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 72.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 78.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/151435.shtml?

Snowbie

WInds are just below minimal Hurricane strenght at 70mph.It should be classed as Hurricane later on today.

maquiladora

Dean is now a Hurricane, and on it's way to becoming a big one...should reach Cat 4, even Cat 5 is possible.

ch750536

Any satellite pics?

fatherdougalmag

The NHC floaters.

DapperGent

Looks like we've had a close shave in Grenada not even a tropical storm watch at this point, I'm a little bit disappointed in a way I'm stupid enough to have liked to have seen it. Though I'm sure if I'd been here when Ivan hit my feelings would be total and utter relief like just about everyone else who lives here.

Snowbie

lol,i knew you would have likin to see it.Didnt want to say anything yesterday as you where in the direct path of it.I had an encounter with Hurricane(cat1) Gordon 10 odd years ago in Florida and was a tad gusty and wet even though i was 350 miles from the eye wall.Trust me,Its all very exciting when you know its going to miss you.Hows the surfing,be some wave action over there.:D

Dean predicted to get to Cat 4 before hitting the Yucatan peninsula and then onto Central America.

maquiladora

Models are fairly consistent in showing a Yuc hit but the GFDL takes it up into the Gulf. Still a good while to go so anything could happen.

Trogdor

Yes most run it into Yucatan, CLP5 takes it across Cuba. GDFL also has it at Cat5 strengh by T+90:eek:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081612-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=090hr
...and continuing to strenghen

Supercell

From past experience, i'd take these path predictions with a huge pinch of salt further than a day or two out.
That said there is little doubt Dean has serious potential to do massive damage, going to be fascinating watching him grow and continue to develop.

DapperGent

Probably get some tropical storm conditions from the edge of it tomorrow morning (AST) at some point, the hurricane shelters are open for business and everyone is being warned not to be eejits.

Funniest bit so far was the kinda reggae/calypso weather forecast on one of the radio stations:

*music*
Hurricane Dean strenghtenin
*music*
Sustained windspeeds of XX
*music*
Minimum central pressure of XX
*music*
etc. etc.

Snowbie

Cat 2 now with 100mph winds.Storm moving west at a fast 23mph.
Moving into caribean sea should slowly intensify but its the encounter with the gulf of Mexico warmer waters,this will power it up to a Cat 4.

rc28

Cat 3 now;
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
Apparently it's on course to hit the US coast (after brushing lots of caribbean islands and maybe yucatan), probably texas which really doesn't need any more rain after all their recent flooding. Someone on another forum said it will reach category 5 status before it reaches america.

Wertz

The real danger with systems that make it past the disturbance of the yucatan pen. is that they get into a warm shallow GoM and can intensify a lot before landfall...and a stallled system in that part of the gulf can just spin like a top and head off in any direction after building itself...

fatherdougalmag

GFDL likes to take it more north than west and it's out on its own but the NHC discussion says:

NHC wrote:

THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY.

Snowbie

But also GFDL brings it close to western Louisiana(New Orleans territory) more as a rain maker and away from hurricane winds but still a threat for renewed flooding as SE winds would push the surge onshore more than Katrina.Surely if this is the case that GFDL is as accurate as they say,they would want to act upon this on the safe side of precaution now.

Unfortunately Jamaica looks like a direct hit and after that the cayman Islands.Its when it passes through or close to these areas that the path be more determined.Otherwise models are usually inaccurate this far out.Which one would you believe?
Saying that,this storm has no threats from shearing or drier air to weaken, it and is going where it wants to for now and intensifying.

maquiladora

Latest GFDL track is scary. Long way to go, but if that comes to pass....

Trogdor

Very fast intensification, Cat 4 now. NHC has it hitting Cat 5 in 36 hours, maybe quicker though
WTNT44 KNHC 180305
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

...CORRECTED ERRONEOUS INDICATOR OF INLAND AT 96 HOURS IN TABLE...

DEAN HAS BEEN STEADILY INTENSIFYING TONIGHT. THE U.S. AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 138 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 124 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE AIRCRAFT IS EQUIPPED WITH THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WHICH MEASURED WINDS AS STRONG AS 123 KT THIS
EVENING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN
DROPPING...WITH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENT BEING 937 MB. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THE
STORM HAS BECOME A GOOD BIT LARGER...AND WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DEAN MIGHT ALSO HAVE A CLOSE ENCOUNTER
WITH NOAA BUOY 42059...LESS THAN 100 N MI DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...IN A FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
BEFORE. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS NOTABLY
DISAGREE AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN OUTLYING GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HOWEVER...HAS
NOT CHANGED NOTICEABLY...SINCE THE MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE
OTHER WAY. THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES TYPICAL OF THOSE
LONGER FORECAST RANGES. THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT AND
GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ALSO REFLECT
THESE UNCERTAINTIES. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
SIMILAR AT EACH LOCATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DIFFERENTIATE
THE RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF DEAN...GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND WARM WATERS
AHEAD...WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES
AND/OR BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR AN INTENSITY NEAR THE CATEGORY 4/5 THRESHOLD THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND IS ONLY LOWERED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO POTENTIAL
PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.9N 65.9W 125 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W 135 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W 135 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W 135 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 110 KT...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO
EDIT: Good eye forming there
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

sirpsycho

updated... 150mph winds now

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND SOUTH OF HAITI TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN COULD HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAINS AS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE AND WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH....122
KM/HR AS DEAN MOVED NEARBY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.4 N...67.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

sirpsycho

Latest satellite pics:
http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

http://www.hurricanezone.net/#04l

rc28

Dean is now just "6mph shy" of being a category 5 hurricane;
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
Dean is now a main news story in the media:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/18/storms/index.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293702,00.html
But of course they'd never mention the category 5 supertyphoon Sepat that hit Taiwan last night because it's not a threat to the US;
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/11687.aspx
http://www.rambocam.com/

Takeshi_Kovacs

rc28 wrote:

Dean is now just "6mph shy" of being a category 5 hurricane;
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
Dean is now a main news story in the media:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/18/storms/index.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293702,00.html
But of course they'd never mention the category 5 supertyphoon Sepat that hit Taiwan last night because it's not a threat to the US;
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/11687.aspx
http://www.rambocam.com/

Yeah we never seem to hear much about Pacific Typhoons, even though they are more frequent than Atlantic hurricanes.
Nice links, especially the last one. The floods shown on that site are amazing, and very scary looking

Snowbie

rc28 wrote:

But of course they'd never mention the category 5 supertyphoon Sepat that hit Taiwan last night because it's not a threat to the US

Yep agree,they tend to do that in the US media but also in Katrina's case they didnt heed the warnings either.All pointed the fingers at FEMA while the Bush fellow sitting at his ranch in Texas planning his next invasion.:mad:

I'm not too interested in the US media as like all other media is just hype.They already mentioned on another forum Dean will become the first Cat6.:rolleyes: on the saffir/simpson scale.

On the weather channel, they have the best coverage of Typhoon,Cyclones and in our case Hurricanes,no matter where on the planet.They have there own reporters that actually get in harms way to report.Totally focused on the met stuff and is not BS hype from the US media.Good source of info imo.

http://www.weather.com/

Dean close to Cat5 without a regenerating a new eyewall.Will lose intensity if this happens but will pick up again.Usually the norm to have several replacing walls but its the first time that i've heard about a Cat5 without regenerating.

fatherdougalmag

Where's Billy the Squid in all this?
The Army Corps of Engineers were testing one of the canals in New Orleans this week.

Snowbie

Trough of LP over Florida moving westwards could possibly steer Dean up on a more NW or N track.Models dont pick this up and is quiet possible it can happen.Texas or Louisiana not out of the picture yet.

rc28

Here is an excellent site to follow Dean's (and other hurricanes) progress. They have a live video stream which I'm watching right now and it gives you the very latest info. As it aproaches Jamaica they have lots of webcam links from jamaica on their home page so you can watch the weather get worse, they also have links to local media and radio streams too which they do for every hurricane, excellent website.
Main page;http://hurricanecity.com/
Live stream(opens in windows media player);http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx
They were talking about how Jamaicans don't realise the danger from Dean as the media haven't woken up, their radio stations just keep playing music and don't mention it!

Wertz

The US media is getting a bit of a slating in here so I just thought I'd mention that I had some CNN show on last night where they went into detail about Sepat and it's impact in Taiwan and it's imminent arrival in SE China....fair enough, this was as an aside to the main show in the carribean but to be fair, most Americans just don't bloody well care what's happening outside their "backyard"...maybe some of that can be attributed to their media predominatingly concentrating on domestic issues and stories...in such a big country that will fill up a lot of news bulletins; ourselves and the UK manage to fill a lot of ours up with domestic crap and we're only a fraction of the size and populace.

Anyway, on topic, first rain bands are about to cross the jamaican shore...Haiti been getting a battering all night.
Like snowbie, I too reckon a SE TX hit, maybe near Brownsville, or this could just spin up the coast and create havoc from offshore. I'm not basing that on anything but watching the track so far and seeing what the yucatan does to storms.

rc28

Wertz wrote:

The US media is getting a bit of a slating in here so I just thought I'd mention that I had some CNN show on last night where they went into detail about Sepat and it's impact in Taiwan and it's imminent arrival in SE China....fair enough

The cnn that you see on tv outside of the US is cnn international and is completely different to the cnn americans see.

Wertz

rc28 wrote:

The cnn that you see on tv outside of the US is cnn international and is completely different to the cnn americans see.

Good point...but if you listen to the BBC world service you'll hear a substantially different news than you would tuning into any of the domestic services...that doesn't mean that the UK media hasn't covered a story, only that they've not given any airtime to it in the UK....why would a country the size of the 'States be any different?
The point is that if yanks care enough about what's going on outside of their own backyard, they need only change channel or surf to an international news site. But why would they give more airtime to a storm halfways round the world when there's one maybe equally as destructive banging on their own front door?

On topic, (and read from CNN international's site) seems that sepat has spawned a tornado that has claimed 14 lives.
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/08/19/taiwan.typhoon.reut/index.html

rc28

Hitting Jamaica now since 10pm irish time. The eye wall is skirting the southern tip of the island
http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx
http://www.stormvideographer.com/blog/

Snowbie

The upper trough has outran Dean so no steering up towards the US but Texas coastline mainly with the Mexican border still a posibility of a direct hit.Otherwise more unwanted rain for that area yet again.

Dean went through a couple of eyewall replacements and still has maintained 145mph sustained winds.The SW portion of the island(Jamaica) will be hit by the inner eye for sure,so devastation here a certainty.Cayman islands are in the firing line next and then onto Yucatan with Conzumel and Cancun a possible direct hit yet again as maybe a Cat5.Wilma destroyed these islands 2 yrs ago.

After that,Dean will re-emerge into the Gulf as a strong Cat2 probably and regain a Cat3 before hitting the Gulf coastline.

Dean last pressure reading of 918mb-920mb.
145mph with higher gusts.

Snowbie

Dean upgraded to a Cat5 160mph about to make landfall in Yucatan.

Big Tone

Has been downgraded to a Cat 3 now after landfall resistance in Yucatan.

rc28

Off topic but back to typhoon sepat- there is some incredible footage of it here;http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/11787.aspx
It was filmed by a uk stormchaser.

Snowbie

Dean the first Cat5 hurricane to make landfall since Andrew 1992.Pressure got down to 905mb and 165mph winds in the northern eyewall.

Now a Cat2 and should reach a strong Cat2 or maybe Cat3 over the bay of Campeche before another landfall in Mexico again.

Takeshi_Kovacs

rc28 wrote:

Off topic but back to typhoon sepat- there is some incredible footage of it here;http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/11787.aspx
It was filmed by a uk stormchaser.

Pretty amazing video footage alright.... really makes me want to see a hurricane/typhoon up close some day... as dangerous as it is.

Snowbie

Meanwhile the tropics are quiet again

A brief history of Dean:

Dean developed in the eastern tropical Atlantic and moved westward toward the Lesser Antilles by Friday, August 17 as a Category 2 hurricane. The islands of Martinique, St. Lucia and Dominica were especially hard hit.

From there, Dean pushed through the eastern Caribbean and impacted Jamaica as a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday, August 19. The island was hit with high winds and heavy rain. Winds gusted as high as 138 mph in Kingston.

Hurricane Dean made its first landfall around 3:30 am (Central Time) Tuesday with 165 mile per hour winds near Costa Maya, Mexico. It is the first land falling category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992. Its pressure of 906 millibars is the third lowest pressure at landfall behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 in Cancun, Mexico.

The resorts of Cancun and Cozumel did not receive the full brunt of Hurricane Dean but tremendous waves (on the order of 15 to 25 feet) crashed along the shores resulting in severe beach erosion.

Dean emerged into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday afternoon as a category 1 hurricane. Dean strengthened over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and reached category 2 status. Thankfully, Dean was considerably weaker during its second landfall than it was Tuesday during its first landfall when it was a monster category 5 hurricane.

Dean made its second landfall about 40 miles south-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico at 11:30am (Central Time) along the coast of the Mexican state of Veracruz between the cities of Tampico and Veracruz. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were near 100 mph with a minimum central pressure of about 979 millibars.