Housing Bubble Bursting

ntlbell

spockety wrote: »

What a ludicrous survey. It seems to suggest that Dublin 16 has already bottomed out!

haha.. o---kay.

"Dublin 16 is different"?

Just like terenure

bangersandmash

ronbyrne2005 wrote: »

Sunday Times have their annual price guide for houseprices all over the country. I think they get estate agents to compile it, so expect to see massive drops as estate agents attempt to manage vendors expectations.

The Sunday Times report isn't worth the paper it's printed on. The January 2008 report predicted no further price drops for many areas, with increases in some areas - including D6 from what I recall. Anyone familiar with the market in the area will know how far off that prediction was.

The 2009 report has much of the same. For many parts of Dublin the Jan 10 prices are listed as the same as Jan 09. Much of the area-specific analysis is as vague as a horoscope.

punchestown

Ally Dick wrote: »

He's probably in it already. He's good buddies with Mr Carew and drinks in Beaumont every Saturday with his nodding dog yes men and his 'lovely' girlfriend

Was told he is allegedly a share holder in the BH.

Rod & Reel

was it not obivous to the goverement taht the compaines who were coming here were only going to stay for the period of the tax breaks that they were given. it was to me and im just a Butcher with a junior cert education.

was it not obivous to the goverment that the building industrie would have to eventually have to stop. if not for the demad of house slowing but that we would simply run out land to build them on. yes i know we have a plaenty of land in this little isle of ours but it would run out. so did they not anticapate that at least. 1 way r another it would have to stop.

when we were in boom times we paid thru the noses for everything, food a nite out clothes etc. now everywhere we look there are bargains to be found. Because we as a nation are broke but if more bargains were around during the boom we would have a had a lot more to save for our rainy day which is p***ing on us now.

We are all to blame. we let them do as they liked we paid over the value for eveything. houses cars holidays u name we paid for it.

while the goverment should have seen this we should have said no to them. voted in 3 times in a row. and now if we get rid of em who do we put in, we didnt give the others a try during the boom so we dont know what they'll be like in a downturn. maybe what we will let happen is this.

FF will let us elect FG into goverment and we will think we did. FG will have the job of restoring our econmy which they wont be able to do and then in 4 yrs when we are coming clean of this we will elect FF back in and then we will be back to where we started.

ntlbell

Rod & Reel wrote: »

when we were in boom times we paid thru the noses for everything, food a nite out clothes etc. now everywhere we look there are bargains to be found. Because we as a nation are broke but if more bargains were around during the boom we would have a had a lot more to save for our rainy day which is p***ing on us now.

We are all to blame. we let them do as they liked we paid over the value for eveything. houses cars holidays u name we paid for it.

while the goverment should have seen this we should have said no to them. voted in 3 times in a row. and now if we get rid of em who do we put in, we didnt give the others a try during the boom so we dont know what they'll be like in a downturn. maybe what we will let happen is this.

Who's this "WE" I didn't do any of that nonsense.

Rod & Reel

ntlbell wrote: »

Who's this "WE" I didn't do any of that nonsense.

u didnt buy an overpriced car nor a house nor go on holidays. pay 30% more for goods than our euro buds no ok where were u in a shell livin off sand

ntlbell

Rod & Reel wrote: »

u didnt buy an overpriced car nor a house nor go on holidays. pay 30% more for goods than our euro buds no ok where were u in a shell livin off sand

No, I bought a very reasonably priced second hand car with cash.

Holidays for the last few years have been the cheapest they've ever been

you get away for a week in the sun for little or nothing.

I buy 99% of goods online very cheap.

No I was paying attention to what I was purchasing and not getting caught up in the nonsense like a lot of people were.

A lot of people didn't get caught up the madness you describe there was just a lot of idiots who did.

pipsqueak

recession = Reality check, Not everyone can have 2 expensive cars, 3 holidays a year , 2 properties, It seems to me a lot of people lived way beyond their means and now the when the tide has gone out we can see who has swimming with no trunks!!!

Rod & Reel

ntlbell wrote: »

No, I bought a very reasonably priced second hand car with cash.

Holidays for the last few years have been the cheapest they've ever been

you get away for a week in the sun for little or nothing.

I buy 99% of goods online very cheap.

No I was paying attention to what I was purchasing and not getting caught up in the nonsense like a lot of people were.

A lot of people didn't get caught up the madness you describe there was just a lot of idiots who did.

i too drive a 00 car, 4500 it costs. i holiday in wexford i take care of me weeins 3 in all i bought my house 3 bed in 2000 for 78000 pounds. in laois.

but we are all in this mess together all of us, from the penny pincher to the euro waster.

ntlbell

Rod & Reel wrote: »

i too drive a 00 car, 4500 it costs. i holiday in wexford i take care of me weeins 3 in all i bought my house 3 bed in 2000 for 78000 pounds. in laois.

but we are all in this mess together all of us, from the penny pincher to the euro waster.

Yes we're in the mess together.

It wasn't created together.

Rod & Reel

ntlbell wrote: »

Yes we're in the mess together.

It wasn't created together.

"WE"

Rod & Reel

Rod & Reel wrote: »

"WE"

Yes we're all in the same boat, including the few who are rocking it with excessive living.

The many suffer for the greed of the few.

MG

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes we're all in the same boat, including the few who are rocking it with excessive living.

The many suffer for the greed of the few.

As far as I can see, the majority of people in this country were living excessively. It's a common theme at the moment to blame the bankers or whoever, but property bubbles don't just happen without a widespread mania. The number of people who are truthfully guilt free are few and far between.

ntlbell

MG wrote: »

As far as I can see, the majority of people in this country were living excessively. It's a common theme at the moment to blame the bankers or whoever, but property bubbles don't just happen without a widespread mania. The number of people who are truthfully guilt free are few and far between.

you can't really blame a single person or a couple buying a familiy home fear was drove into them by VI's friends, familiy etc

people who were buying multiple BTL investments trying to make a fast buck mickey mouse land lords etc people flipping houses to make money these added to it but joe soap trying to get his own place didn't cause it

MG

ntlbell wrote: »

you can't really blame a single person or a couple buying a familiy home fear was drove into them by VI's friends, familiy etc

people who were buying multiple BTL investments trying to make a fast buck mickey mouse land lords etc people flipping houses to make money these added to it but joe soap trying to get his own place didn't cause it

I don't acept that. Joe Soap getting his own place did contribute to driving it. Maybe it was out of fear, pressure, mis-selling or ignorance, but in the end people did crazy things, not just the high flyers but ordinary people too. I would think they are less than 10% of the people who can honestly say they didn't contribute to it. In my opinion, I think some of the anger at banks etc is a reaction to peoples own guilt in the matter.

spockety

MG wrote: »

I don't acept that. Joe Soap getting his own place did contribute to driving it. Maybe it was out of fear, pressure, mis-selling or ignorance, but in the end people did crazy things, not just the high flyers but ordinary people too. I would think they are less than 10% of the people who can honestly say they didn't contribute to it. In my opinion, I think some of the anger at banks etc is a reaction to peoples own guilt in the matter.

We are supposed to have regulation in place to stop anarchy. Human nature is rubbish when it comes to making rational decisions sometimes, that is why we have people in place who are supposed to act rational for us.

The pain of recession we are experiencing now is really going to ram us hard. We would have been in a much better place to deal with it if in 2000 the regulator had stepped in and insisted on more prudent lending practices. The introduction of 100%+ mortgages showed that we really have no systems in place at all to deal with bad practices.

Max mortgage of 25 years in length.
Max LTV of 92%.
Max outgoing of 30% of net income, stress tested up to +2% in interest rate changes.
No developer/investor/btl/landlord tax breaks.

Any one of these measures would have helped to prevent the bubble.
A combination of any 2 of them probably would have stopped the bubble.

luckat

Council housing softened the market for years, then in Ireland's equivalent of Thatcherism, it was abandoned, and people's only choice was to pay high rents to avaricious landlords without having security of tenure of control on rent, or to buy a place to live.

ntlbell

MG wrote: »

I don't acept that. Joe Soap getting his own place did contribute to driving it. Maybe it was out of fear, pressure, mis-selling or ignorance, but in the end people did crazy things, not just the high flyers but ordinary people too. I would think they are less than 10% of the people who can honestly say they didn't contribute to it. In my opinion, I think some of the anger at banks etc is a reaction to peoples own guilt in the matter.

I don't have the exact stats to hand but they should be easy enough to find if you look at the amount of BTL mortgages etc I think you'll find it was mostly driven by investors, flippers etc compared to FTB's

banks were handing out 100% mortgages 10x's wages etc.

Yes the average joe added to it but if there wasn't flippers and BTL's forcing the prices so high joe soap would of been able to by a family home at a reasonable price

MG

In my opinion, the following people share some of the blame for the housing bubble – only the degree of blame is in question:

(In no particular order)
Banks and most of their employees
Government
Anyone who voted Fianna Fail in 2006
Mortgage brokers
Developers
Regulators
Unions who pressed for benchmarking
Estate agents
Most people in the residential building sector
Anyone who took out a 100% mortgage
Anyone who inflated their income to get mortgage approval
Anyone who bought BTL
Anyone involved in those “showhouse” type tv shows
Cheerleader economists like Dan McLaughlin etc
Large sections of the media
The legal profession whose income was inflated by conveyancing
Most people who used equity release
Anyone who borrowed excessively for day to day expenses
Interior designers
Furniture, bedding & household appliance shops
builders providers etc
Anyone who said “renting is dead money”
Anyone who complained about people “talking down the economy”

I could probably go on, but most people I know, ordinary Joes, would fall into one of these categories. Most were cheerleaders for the bubble and thought it would never end. Blaming one group of people is only trying to ease our own conscience. The vast majority of people in this country share some of the blame for the bubble.

Firetrap

There's a list of shame if ever there was one. I think if I was to pick one that's got serious blood in its hands, it'd be the banks. At the peak of the market, you could get a 40 year 100% mortgage for 7 or 8 times your salary. The market expands to what people are prepared to pay for things

gurramok

Its called slave to the wage for that gaff you want. The banks loved those type of 35-40yr 100% mortgages as they make a ton of you well into retirement unlike the previous 92% 25 yr mortgages.
They see profit long term on the individual. They are a business and are not friend as some seem to have forgotten out there!

Just as well its all gone pear shaped as the regulator did nothing to stop them.

Ally Dick

Firetrap wrote: »

There's a list of shame if ever there was one. I think if I was to pick one that's got serious blood in its hands, it'd be the banks. At the peak of the market, you could get a 40 year 100% mortgage for 7 or 8 times your salary. The market expands to what people are prepared to pay for things

Not only the banks fault. They were responding to market demand. It was the financial regulator who was supposed to do his job e.g. regulation, but who did nothing. The architect of the sub prime mess in the US was Bill Clinton who deregulated the banks. Tramps on the street were then getting mortgages even though they had no capacity to repay them. Madness. In Ireland, I would blame Bertie Ahern, the financial regulator and the boss of the Central Bank primarily. The individual banks have to take some responsibility alright but I wouldn't name them the chief culprit.

Agent J

Where the hell does personal responsability come into it?

"The banks made me sign over my life for 40 years....."

IF the person signing for it was of sound mind and over 18 and had taken the time to read the details then i really dont see why the banks get all the blame.

Oh sure it wasnt wise and they probably shouldnt have been doing it but they responded to the market. IF there was an issue then the regulator/government should have stepped in. Or people shouldnt have bloody well taken them.

If there was no demand for it then no body would have taken one.

Banks are nice easy target for blame. Start looking in a mirror

K-9

Look, people who were irresponsible enough to take out the 100%, 35/40 year Mortgages are hardly going to suddenly admit it was their fault. More convenient to blame the Regulator/Govt./Nasty Developer for making me sign the bloody Mortgage/Contract.

Same for the new 4*4, bloody car dealers/HP Companies.

Firetrap

While I don't discount personal responsibility for one moment, I do blame the banks and the regulator, now that I think of it. They're not totally responsible but they do have to take a certain amount of blame. They should not have relaxed their rules for lending and chucked money at people. There are times when people need protecting from themselves. There was a time too when the likes of Dan McLoughlin from Bank of Ireland and Austin Hughes from IIB (now KCB) were always on the national airways, whipping up things and telling people that the economy would continue to grow, that there was demand for houses and that the fundamentals were sound.

johnnyskeleton

Agent J wrote: »

Where the hell does personal responsability come into it?

"The banks made me sign over my life for 40 years....."

IF the person signing for it was of sound mind and over 18 and had taken the time to read the details then i really dont see why the banks get all the blame.

Oh sure it wasnt wise and they probably shouldnt have been doing it but they responded to the market. IF there was an issue then the regulator/government should have stepped in. Or people shouldnt have bloody well taken them.

If there was no demand for it then no body would have taken one.

Banks are nice easy target for blame. Start looking in a mirror

Some people borrowed irresponsibly, and they should be blamed for their own downfall. But even someone who didn't borrow irresponsibly (because they were prudent/lucky/poor etc) will now have to pay for the bank's mistakes. We could even be looking at a situation where the schoolkids of today will be paying for the mistakes of their older siblings for years to come in the form of greater tax, higher unemployment etc.

earlyevening

If Austin Hughes told you to jump off a cliff, would you do it?

Some of us never learnt this important lesson from our mammies.

spockety

Agent J wrote: »

Where the hell does personal responsability come into it?

"The banks made me sign over my life for 40 years....."

IF the person signing for it was of sound mind and over 18 and had taken the time to read the details then i really dont see why the banks get all the blame.

Oh sure it wasnt wise and they probably shouldnt have been doing it but they responded to the market. IF there was an issue then the regulator/government should have stepped in. Or people shouldnt have bloody well taken them.

If there was no demand for it then no body would have taken one.

Banks are nice easy target for blame. Start looking in a mirror

The problem with the banks behavour, as we are witnessing now, is that they are 'systemic' to the economy. It was basically our money/savings they were mucking around with, and now it is us as a nation who have to pick up the pieces for their reckless lending. Yes, it was adults who took out mortgages and should have known better etc., but the banks owe a duty to their customers (savers, etc.), as well as to their shareholders. They utterly utterly failed us as a nation.

K-9

spockety wrote: »

The problem with the banks behavour, as we are witnessing now, is that they are 'systemic' to the economy. It was basically our money/savings they were mucking around with, and now it is us as a nation who have to pick up the pieces for their reckless lending. Yes, it was adults who took out mortgages and should have known better etc., but the banks owe a duty to their customers (savers, etc.), as well as to their shareholders. They utterly utterly failed us as a nation.

As opposed to simple personal irresponsibility and recklessness.

Dob74

Agent J wrote: »

Where the hell does personal responsability come into it?

"The banks made me sign over my life for 40 years....."

IF the person signing for it was of sound mind and over 18 and had taken the time to read the details then i really dont see why the banks get all the blame.

Oh sure it wasnt wise and they probably shouldnt have been doing it but they responded to the market. IF there was an issue then the regulator/government should have stepped in. Or people shouldnt have bloody well taken them.

If there was no demand for it then no body would have taken one.

Banks are nice easy target for blame. Start looking in a mirror

So should the banks look in the mirror and sort their mess out by themselves, our should taxpayers bail them out. Where is there personal responsability?