Housing Bubble Bursting

ascottdub

The house would be for me as a buyer to live in, and I do realise it would need money poured into it, but I think down the line I'd get the money back, and it would payoff.
Your suggesting 150k, so don't fall off your chair, but the asking price was 465K until July last year, and it went to just over 400K then where it has remained. THIS PLACE IS A SHELL.
If I decide to bid it will be substantially lower as I don't think the sellers have come down from whatever cloud they're living on.

Am I wrong to assume that I could get this much, much lower?

Thanks for all the advice

Eglinton

Cuckoo land is the particular cloud they're on! You're definitely not wrong to assume you could offer much lower. Go for it.

One thing I will ask though is why you're buying a shell when (as Oceanclub in his unrelated post rightly suggests), there are loads of empty, perfectly good, high spec'ed houses available that are completely open to low offers?

ascottdub

Thanks Eglinton for confirming that the asking price is mad. I would offer no where near that amount. And, I feel in 6 months time I just might get it too. I was thinking of starting just below 280K???? Please tell me if you think thats laughable
The reason I haven't really looked at newer high spec houses, is because most of them are miles out & I want to at the moment try my hardest to stay in the area I'm in and alas it would be like trying to buy in say Dundrum on the southside, not cheap
I can't make my commute any longer as I'd go bonkers
By the way, would you have any insight at all into how much a renovation waould run on a smaller 3 bed, terraced, council house? I have posted the question on another thread, but no-one has come back yet. This place would need complete gutting, I'm assuming as I haven't looked in the attic
Thanks again for your input

spockety

ascottdub wrote: »

Thanks Eglinton for confirming that the asking price is mad. I would offer no where near that amount. And, I feel in 6 months time I just might get it too. I was thinking of starting just below 280K???? Please tell me if you think thats laughable
The reason I haven't really looked at newer high spec houses, is because most of them are miles out & I want to at the moment try my hardest to stay in the area I'm in and alas it would be like trying to buy in say Dundrum on the southside, not cheap
I can't make my commute any longer as I'd go bonkers
By the way, would you have any insight at all into how much a renovation waould run on a smaller 3 bed, terraced, council house? I have posted the question on another thread, but no-one has come back yet. This place would need complete gutting, I'm assuming as I haven't looked in the attic
Thanks again for your input

Post up the link from daft.ie to the house on this thread, I am sure you will get tonnes more helpful advise once people can see exactly what they are advising on.

280K sounds way out to me though for a mid-terrace ex council house in need of total renovation!

ascottdub

Hello to all of you giving advice. I personally don't think this ex council, 3 bed, terraced house is worth 280K, and ideally would offer alot less as I promise it needs work & alot of it. The problem is will less, alot less, be accepted with the name of middle to high class nth county dublin area attached to it??
They are in la-la land though thinking its worth 400K. The price has not been adjusted since last July 08. I've been watching all the houses in that area like a hawk
Alot of people in the area say no, i'd be lucky to get 300 accepted (cos of where it is), but I'm not so sure.
Plus, how do I even know that the agent would put in an offer to the seller much lower and just tell me they said no. I've had someone tell me thats what will happen.
I would post advert for the house, but to be honest there isn't much point as it only shows back garden & living room. I'm sure all of you can imagine though
There is no kitchen at all, it would need an entire re-wire, re-plumb, new bathroom, god knows how many floor boards, attic ( I was scared to even look) I'm fairly sure would need insulating. Entire heating system, and back windows would certainly need to replaced as I'm sure if you blew hard enough they'd fall out from all the rot. Lean-to would have to go as it's useless. Any rough suggestions on a price? In the current market are builders a little more resonable on their prices?
Thanks again to all of you

spockety

Where EXACTLY is it? There's more to a house than it's condition/description.. they say 'location location location' for a reason.

Eglinton

ascottdub wrote: »

Hello to all of you giving advice. I personally don't think this ex council, 3 bed, terraced house is worth 280K, and ideally would offer alot less as I promise it needs work & alot of it. The problem is will less, alot less, be accepted with the name of middle to high class nth county dublin area attached to it??
They are in la-la land though thinking its worth 400K. The price has not been adjusted since last July 08. I've been watching all the houses in that area like a hawk
Alot of people in the area say no, i'd be lucky to get 300 accepted (cos of where it is), but I'm not so sure.
Plus, how do I even know that the agent would put in an offer to the seller much lower and just tell me they said no. I've had someone tell me thats what will happen.
I would post advert for the house, but to be honest there isn't much point as it only shows back garden & living room. I'm sure all of you can imagine though
There is no kitchen at all, it would need an entire re-wire, re-plumb, new bathroom, god knows how many floor boards, attic ( I was scared to even look) I'm fairly sure would need insulating. Entire heating system, and back windows would certainly need to replaced as I'm sure if you blew hard enough they'd fall out from all the rot. Lean-to would have to go as it's useless. Any rough suggestions on a price? In the current market are builders a little more resonable on their prices?
Thanks again to all of you

That sounds like a horrenously large task. I'm sticking to my guns and suggest to bid no more than 150K. I think perhaps you need to think about how much sites of a similar size cost in the area as basically you seem to be looking at a site with the small bonus of 4 walls and a roof. I don't know how much sites are but if you can get an idea of it it might help us in coming up with something more tangible. The ad would certainly assist regarless of pic numbers.

spockety wrote: »

Where EXACTLY is it? There's more to a house than it's condition/description.. they say 'location location location' for a reason.

Precisely.

ascottdub

Hello Eglington & Spockety.
Ok,the house is in Malahide(i didn't want to say where in case some other meanie reader goes and nicks it with buying it).There are no sites available that aren't a horrendous amount of money as I'm sure you can imagine.
So, Eglinton & co, do you still think I can bid super low??? I think the original owner was the one in the house and has either died or gone to a home
A yes would be the ideal answer as I want to try my best to stay around there as I'm from there
I could go to Donaghmede, baldoyle and the likes, but I feel it wouldn't be as rentable(I would want to rent a room out for the first 2 years)
Am I off my rocker altogether?
Thanks again

Eglinton

Hmmm, well Malahide has always been pricey but the downturn is affecting everywhere. There are places in Ranelagh, Sandymount, Killiney etc. slashing their prices.

There's no harm in offering a really low amount. At least it will open the negotiations. If it's rejected, you offer a little more. Do you have an amount in mind that you'd be comfortable bidding or indeed a max amount you can afford?

The only thing I'd be worried about is the fact that you say it may be a house where someone elderly has died. The chances are that it is now their children selling it. They obviously want to make a good profit to counter CGT as much as possible. If they want a quick sale, they'll have to sell for less. If they want to maximise profit, they may be willing to sit on it for a few years. That's a risk to them though. Hard to say what will happen so your best option is to make your offer and see.

I have no idea how much a renovation would cost, but if it's in that bad repair and you want to get to a good/high standard then I can't imagine it would be less than 50K-100K

321654

ascottdub wrote: »

Hello Eglington & Spockety.
Ok,the house is in Malahide(i didn't want to say where in case some other meanie reader goes and nicks it with buying it).There are no sites available that aren't a horrendous amount of money as I'm sure you can imagine.
So, Eglinton & co, do you still think I can bid super low??? I think the original owner was the one in the house and has either died or gone to a home
A yes would be the ideal answer as I want to try my best to stay around there as I'm from there
I could go to Donaghmede, baldoyle and the likes, but I feel it wouldn't be as rentable(I would want to rent a room out for the first 2 years)
Am I off my rocker altogether?
Thanks again

I think i know the house you are talking about. If its that one (probably the worst house in malahide at the moment), I was looking at it myself. Needs a lot of work before you could live in it, but in an area such as Malahide it is worth a punt if you can do some of the work yourself.

spockety

I see the house you're talking about, but I don't know enough about the area to give you an opinion on price. however, I think anything over 200k in the current market would be very generous given the work that needs to be done.

The one thing that is ringing alarm bells for me is that you hope to rent the room out to help cover your costs. The rental market is in dire straights at the moment, and you really should not rely on any income from rental when doing the calculations on what you can afford, it could be a recipe for disaster.

Eglinton

I agree with spockety on the rent idea. As you have no idea as yet what the potential cost of all of this would be I would base the calculations on what you alone can afford. Any rental income once completed would be a bonus; particularly in the current climate. I can't imagine a room in Malahide is that tempting when there is so so much more available closer to the city centre at great value.

ascottdub

Hi Everyone,
No,sorry for miswording. I'm not including the room in what I can afford. I would just like to rent a room for the first couple of years as an extra persay. I will not take(nor b given) a payment that I can't afford to take on my own
I would be able to get help with replastering, insulating attic, and replacing floorboards and stuff, but it's the things I'll find in the process that worries me. Electrics and plumbing would be the big ones, and a kitchen of course. Back windows aswell
When you saw the house, how much did you feel would need to be put into it & (truly not trying to be nosey) but did you just feel it couldn't be done? Or , more to the point, how much did you feel it was worth?
I'm just trying to justify going in at a much lower price, I suppose. I just get the feeling the sellers would murder me going in at 200K
You've all been very helpful, it's nice to know there are people out there happy to give a suggestion or 2

Bee

ascottdub wrote: »

Hello,

There seem to be some smart people on here so here's one for you.
They keep going on about how much prices will fall, but can anyone at all tell how much prices are likely to fall in a certain area?
More to the point, a nicer area in Nth County Dublin. I'm looking at the possibility of bidding on a 3 bed, older council, terraced house, that would need to be gutted, and I mean gutted. It's a shell at the moment and the asking price is just laughable.
I'm not expecting an exact amount but how much have houses come down in the area since last July(2008) until now, and how much more to go?
Much appreciated,
Ascottdub

How long is a piece of string?

You can gauge somewhat about the price reductions in the area over a period of time but basically it is down to how much people are willing to pay and how long and how much in need of money, the seller is willing to accept.

You can see by some of the type of posts here that there is a strong vested interest by people posting that the sky is about to fall and house prices will collapse. It is obvious that a lot of posters are unable to afford mortgages who are envious and others are posting that have had their fingers burnt at the top of the market and want others to suffer as well.

There will always be envious folk out there.

In some areas like Leitrim where there were properties built purely to avail of section 23 tax breaks that may happen, but I can't see it happening in the area you are suggesting.

It is all down to how much you want the house and how much you want to pay for it.
If it is going to be your permanent residence and you really settle there what you pay for it now in 20 years time will mean little.

If you bid x amount below the asking price the estate agent should tell the seller and at least you will get some feedback.

oceanclub

Bee wrote: »

You can see by some of the type of posts here that there is a strong vested interest by people posting that the sky is about to fall and house prices will collapse.

Ah yes, of course; there are no vested interests with the opposing argument.

P.

Bee

ascottdub wrote: »

Hello to all of you giving advice. I personally don't think this ex council, 3 bed, terraced house is worth 280K, and ideally would offer alot less as I promise it needs work & alot of it. The problem is will less, alot less, be accepted with the name of middle to high class nth county dublin area attached to it??
They are in la-la land though thinking its worth 400K. The price has not been adjusted since last July 08. I've been watching all the houses in that area like a hawk
Alot of people in the area say no, i'd be lucky to get 300 accepted (cos of where it is), but I'm not so sure.
Plus, how do I even know that the agent would put in an offer to the seller much lower and just tell me they said no. I've had someone tell me thats what will happen.
I would post advert for the house, but to be honest there isn't much point as it only shows back garden & living room. I'm sure all of you can imagine though
There is no kitchen at all, it would need an entire re-wire, re-plumb, new bathroom, god knows how many floor boards, attic ( I was scared to even look) I'm fairly sure would need insulating. Entire heating system, and back windows would certainly need to replaced as I'm sure if you blew hard enough they'd fall out from all the rot. Lean-to would have to go as it's useless. Any rough suggestions on a price? In the current market are builders a little more resonable on their prices?
Thanks again to all of you

Get 3 quotes form decent builders, offer a lower price to your favoured quote, your renovation will cost anything between 20 to 40k.

Builders can be very reasonable at the moment. I had some work done recently at 15% below the first quote from the same builder.

gurramok

Yes Bee, all about envy and begrudgery , nothing to do with proper analysis of the situation, of course not.

ascottdub

Hi Everyone,
Your all so helpful & some of the posts funny.
Now Bee, you suggest to compare in the area, so, can I compare a €1 mill house in Malahide that can now be bought at a bargain of 700K? Thats 30% there, and it was probably overpriced in the first place. I'm sure there's more out there, but that happens to be I spotted.
I suppose in the end it depends if the sellers would like the cash, or they could be willing to ride out the storm.
Would be interested to hear from the person who viewed this house. Curious to know the reasons they decideda against. IE: 2 much work, or just wasn't for them
Anyone else have ideas on renovating prices? Nice to know they've come down a bit
Thanks

laurak265

Hi,

I was talking to an auctioneer last week who said that house prices have dropped a third on this time last yr and if you wait another 2/3 months they will drop again. Very good auctioneer that i trust!

Hope this helps!!

mrgaa1

auctioneer and trust in the same sentence - now thats something

Puddleduck

Hi All,

Id just like to know what peoples opinions are on buying vs Self build.

Im hearing alot of people saying that it would be cheaper to build and buy the land a house would sit on then it would be to buy a house already built. Im not so sure if it would be, considering the amount of extras needed (Kitchen, electricity, water, gas/oil etc)

Any ideas?

laurak265

WEll puddleduck,

I am going to be building myself...looked at buying and for what you pay to build per sq footage and how much it is to big a difference. I think also to build by direct labour and use people recommended by friends is cheaper again then getting builder to complete all the work! Its hard work and takes alot of organisation but you get the house you really want at the end of it, which is what i want!

best of luck

Puddleduck

laurak265 wrote: »

WEll puddleduck,

I am going to be building myself...looked at buying and for what you pay to build per sq footage and how much it is to big a difference. I think also to build by direct labour and use people recommended by friends is cheaper again then getting builder to complete all the work! Its hard work and takes alot of organisation but you get the house you really want at the end of it, which is what i want!

best of luck

As of yet its all just ideas. I have heard that there is a law that restricts where you build your house ie you have to be living in the county for at least 10 years. Im not sure whether this is true or not.

As is Im just looking at land. Any one any ideas of what would be a decent price to pay for an acre of land in meath/Kildare?

I honestly havent a clue where I would start. I think Ideally Id like to speak to someone who has self bulit and see what kind of problems they came across and what kind of things you wouldnt think of that would be important.

punchestown

laurak265 wrote: »

Hi,

I was talking to an auctioneer last week who said that house prices have dropped a third on this time last yr and if you wait another 2/3 months they will drop again. Very good auctioneer that i trust!

Hope this helps!!

Friend of mine told me this years Premiership would be won by either United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Villa or Everton. Very good source!

ascottdub

Ah now punchestown, thats not nice(funny, yes)

That post was someone trying to be helpful.

I heard that IRl, ENG, SCOt, WALES, FRANCE OR ITALY WILL WIN THE 6 NATIONS THOUGH

JJJJNR

New house next door (detached 4 bed) for sale at 100k more than mine 12 months ago, offered the builder my house plus 20k. Waiting to hear back.. sign of the times..

laurak265

punchestown wrote: »

Friend of mine told me this years Premiership would be won by either United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Villa or Everton. Very good source!

He is a valuer for banks also so i think he knows how much the market has dropped!

Ally Dick

Just read the first few pages of this thread from the start in 2006 and laughed out loud at some of the comments

gurramok

Yeh, they(who have disappeared since) couldn't handle the thought of facts, figures & links from that Pa ElGrande guy on Page 2 who was dead right!.

Gurgle

Ally Dick wrote: »

Just read the first few pages of this thread from the start in 2006 and laughed out loud at some of the comments

I've been laughing at most of the comments all the way through the last 2 years and 370 pages.

And still - the total drop in the national average house price since the peak 2 years ago is less than 15%.

And still - the crash predictors are trying to find a way to prove they were right.

Still laughing