Hurricane Gordon (seven)

Hal1

Where is the google map that you usually add in with the advisorys billy? The 3 day predicted path of the hurricane you know the one.

billy the squid

I have never produced prediction maps. the maps I produce show a storms current location. the 3 day and 5 day prediction maps are produced by the nhc. there is a link to it on page one of the thread, and my map is also on page one of the thread.

Hal1

billy the squid wrote:

I have never produced prediction maps. the maps I produce show a storms current location. the 3 day and 5 day prediction maps are produced by the nhc. there is a link to it on page one of the thread, and my map is also on page one of the thread.

The location maps was what I meant to say.

billy the squid

Gordon is starting to fall apart fairly rapidly now. windspeeds down to 85mph

force eleven

Gordon as it stands may be falling away, however I draw your attention to this chart

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2006091912/slp9.png

UKMO chart - extremely nasty for the western side of Ireland in particular IF this came off

billy the squid

DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE RAGGED-LOOKING IN ITS APPEARANCE.
THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD
MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL IT DEPARTS THE AZORES...HOWEVER
FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
GORDON WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE POST-GORDON CYCLONE COULD IMPACT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND/OR SPAIN AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
STORM. WITHIN 48 HOURS WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MERGE WITH A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES.

From the 11pm ADT discussion on Gordon. It would concur with the above chart.

At present Gordon is in the Azores with 80mph sustained winds, although the readings from the portugese weather service website don't seem to show any major increase in winds.

The northwestern tip of the iberian peninsula will see some wind tomorrow from the then ex Gordon.

darkman2

The media has picked Gordon up now. Some interesting newspaper reports this morning.

Ryder Cup practice has been cancelled today.

The latest UKMO fax charts show that a stronger wind event is certainly going to begin tomorrow with Southeast Ireland at this stage experiencing the strongest winds. Its quite windy today also incidentally and the rain has started in Central/Southern. Flooding in places here. In fact Met Check think the Caha Mts could get 23cm of rainfall over the next 3 days:eek:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=Attach&type=post&id=23294

fatherdougalmag

Surf's up for the south west: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WW3/ww3.b.europe.sig_wav_ht.060.gif

darkman2

Very tight circulation......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2006092012//slp6.png

fatherdougalmag

fatherdougalmag wrote:

Surf's up for the south west: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WW3/ww3.b.europe.sig_wav_ht.060.gif

Shifting around to south east:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WW3/ww3.b.europe.sig_wav_ht.048.gif

boardsdotie

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=1,sa=8,pr=RGB,f=1,c=AIR,se=2,n=24,d=1,v=600,pp=0,t=200609201400#controls

Use this to track the beast as it approaches

billy the squid

Photobucket is having a bit of a hissy fit so there will be a delay in updating the first page map.

Anyway, looks like Gordan has finally gon extratropical and is making it's turn to the north-east. Max winds of 50mph

boardsdotie

billy the squid wrote:

Photobucket is having a bit of a hissy fit so there will be a delay in updating the first page map.

Anyway, looks like Gordan has finally gon extratropical and is making it's turn to the north-east. Max winds of 50mph

Where do you expect it to make landfall

What should we expect in Limerick

billy the squid

I wouldn't know to be honest. but a low pressure system with a central pressure of 974 mb, is what Gordon is expected to be by the time it gets to us

From the meteo france advisory referrenced by the NHC

Tropical storm GORDON 995 located near 37.8N20.9W at 20/18UTC
moving east at 29 kt. Becoming extratropical storm soon. It is
expected 986 40N13W by 21/00UTC then 976 47N09W by 21/12UTC and 974
over Ireland by 22/00UTC.
Low 963 54N23W moving slowly northeast, expected 968 57N20W by
21/00UTC then with little change.
High 1023 near 39N42W with little move.
Rain or thundery showers in all areas above 30N.

http://www.meteo.fr/marine/naviweb/bulletins/ATL_LARGE.html

AFAIR it is expected to be deeper than Charley was in 1986.

EDIT: just to update the 0505 shipping forcast from UK met office

PLYMOUTH SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST VEERING SOUTHWEST 6 TO GALE 8, INCREASING GALE 8 TO STORM 10, PERHAPS VIOLENT STORM 11 LATER. RAIN OR SHOWERS. GOOD

BISCAY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST VEERING SOUTHWEST 6 TO GALE 8, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9, PERHAPS STORM 10 LATER. RAIN OR SHOWERS. GOOD

FITZROY SOLE LUNDY FASTNET SOUTH BECOMING CYCLONIC 7 TO SEVERE GALE 9, OCCASIONALLY STORM 10, PERHAPS VIOLENT STORM 11 LATER. RAIN THEN SHOWERS. MODERATE OR POOR BECOMING GOOD

IRISH SEA SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 6 TO GALE 8, INCREASING 7 TO SEVERE GALE 9, PERHAPS STORM 10 LATER. SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

SHANNON ROCKALL SOUTHERLY BECOMING CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8, PERHAPS SEVERE GALE 9 LATER. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR IN EAST

to find out where the areas on the map are then you can use the map below
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast/images/maps/map_region_shipping_areas.jpg

from met eireann

Severe Weather Alert
Issued at 05:30am 21/9/06

Becoming stormy for a time this evening and early tonight with winds gusting 100 to 120 Km/h in places. Some further flooding likely.


Valid from 1800 21/9/06 to 0600 22/9/06

and

Southeasterly or cyclonic gale force to storm force winds will develop later today and early tonight on all sea areas.
Issued at 05:00 on 21-Sep-2006

They were calling yesterday's winds the "tail end of Gordon" personally I thought that was kind of inaccurate as it was a different system. THIS is the tail end of gordon.

billy the squid

As it is all part of the same system, I think this would be relevent in this thread
http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0921/flooding.html

This is all going to get very ugly later tonight. Even if there is low wind, we are taking on a ****load of rain. The met radar has been Green or Pink the whole night without easing.

FlutterinBantam

:eek: Jaysus.. better bring in the cat tonite.....

Very interesting stuff.... thanks for all the info

jd

High tide in Wexford town is at about 7.30 pm- I wonder is there a chance of the quays flooding again with a deep low and easterlyish winds...
jd

fatherdougalmag

Some kind of surge forecast for later tonight/tomorrow morning and into tomorrow afternoon.

Villain

Sky News Weather predicted winds of 70mph to 80mph on the southeast coast of Ireland tonight. Its going to get windy!

darkman2

Gordon is approaching the South Coast and the gradient is beginning to tighten. Should be seeing the first of the strong winds here soon. Southwest England now reporting gusts of over 60mph and strengthening. The gradient will tighten fast across the East of the country this evening and early tonight and this is when the strongest winds will occur with damage to trees and power lines. Whilst the West of Ireland wont see the worst of the winds, the main concern here is very heavy rain which will bring some flooding but hopefully not too bad. Gusts in excess of 80mph may bring some disruption to the East and South by morning.

SpitfireIV

The wind is really picking up here in Carlow town now, was relatively calm up to about 1 hour ago.

Mothman

Really ex Gordon should be in its own thread. Gordon is long since finished.

Has been calm here for a while until about 15 minutes ago.

Now 16mph and rising.

Pressure is dropping ever faster.

I'm letting my website update every 15 minutes and more often when online, which could be full time after 9pm or so.

Gusts to 70mph at Scilly

Mothman

Mothman wrote:

I'm letting my website update every 15 minutes and more often when online, which could be full time after 9pm or so.

Excelent!

Gusts to 70mph at Scilly

saw that.The mean speed there is 58mph already.

Here its gusting to 32mph now and the average is 20mph ,thats on the ground though.

Pressure down to 987mb now and the arrow is pointing straight down.

just gusted to 41mph here and its howling

Heres my live weather station

http://arklow.741.com/live.html

Mothman

Still only breezy here and pressure drop has slowed.

The clouds are shifting at a rate of knots though.

Snowbie

Max gust at 25mph just now.Storm has not kicked off yet.Might be nearer midnight before we feel the effects.

jd

Snowbie wrote:

Max gust at 25mph just now.Storm has not kicked off yet.Might be nearer midnight before we feel the effects.

High tide just after midnight in Dublin..

Snowbie

Starting new Thread for this storm.

Thread closed.