Hurricane Gordon (seven)

billy the squid

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
These folks have it listed as TD 07 so I'm going to start a thread on it.



NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/110255.shtml

NHC Forcast Model
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0706W5+gif/025652W_sm.gif

All Models
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_07.gif

Most definately a fish spinner, although it will get the name Gordon

Just to note, we had three storms floating around the atlantic this time last year MARIA, NATE and OPHELIA.

Snowbie

Forecast to make it to Hurricane over next few days and staying away to the east of Bermuda.

sirpsycho

coming thick and fast now

billy the squid

Indeed they are.

Gordon is now a hurricane with maximum winds of 75mph. However it is forcast to be a fish spinner. Bermuda will be safe from this one, however I think TD8/Helene will be a different story.

Anyway, have a look at this. Nowhere is safe

billy the squid

Gordon is now a category 2 hurricane. Still going to be a fish spinner though.

Snowbie

Will become a Cat3.First major Hurricane.

billy the squid

with 120 mph winds Gordon is now a Category 3 hurricane.

ninebeanrows

Not going anywhere though! apart from towards us in a weeks time!

Were in for some rough and unsettled weather for the next few weeks.

Autumn is herrrrrrrre

billy the squid

Heading more in a NorthEasterly direction and still at 120 mph winds.

Should be extratropical within five days though as a gradual weakening is predicted.

Dub13

Weathercheck wrote:

Not going anywhere though! apart from towards us in a weeks time!

Right in time for the Ryder Cup....:mad:

Snowbie

Well we will have a chance at beating them now Tigger and Co.Good auld Irish weather.

billy the squid

Gordon has turned out to be a big dissappointment. Just sitting there weakening and going no where.

Snowbie

You still want them to hit the US.:D

ninebeanrows

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUVS.JPG

Gordon has reintensified against model guidance and is holding
an extremely good structure. It will move east over the next
few days before joining with some other weather systems and
crashing into southeast Ireland next Thursday/Friday.

Snowbie

No WC, ATM,Gordon will move directly to the Iberian Pennisula and will not cross our shores here.Its Helene from Monday week that might track close to us but still a long way off yet.
Gordon should become extratropical in the next 24hrs.

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote:

No WC, ATM,Gordon will move directly to the Iberian Pennisula and will not cross our shores here.Its Helene from Monday week that might track close to us but still a long way off yet.
Gordon should become extratropical in the next 24hrs.

Yes and (Gordon) will move towards Iberia before turning north and heading into
southern Ireland, i would not make such a comment if i didn't know
what i was talking about

Extra-tropical Gordon will strike southern areas around Friday and could potentitally
create quite intense winds and lots of rain.

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote:

Yes and (Gordon) will move towards Iberia before turning north and heading into
southern Ireland,

The latest synoptic charts has it being absorbed into a frontal boundary,updated from earlier.

Weathercheck wrote:

i would not make such a comment if i didn't know
what i was talking about

Relax there,dont be too defensive.

WC,Gordon if still in existence will interact with a LP trough in mid Atlantic and will enhance the rainfall within this trough around midweek and Gordon will not be a system no longer in itself.As for potentially damaging intense winds,No,heavy rainfall,Yes.Ok you can say it could be its leftovers with just rainfall characteristics but not full blown Tropical storm,so stop over-reacting with the intense winds,no body knows for sure this far out.

billy the squid

Hurricane Gordon has strengthened a little in the last 24 hours. This one seems to want to live forever.

I can't see Gordon having much of an affect on us. If I were living in the azores however I would be keeping an eye on it for some unsettled weather.

ninebeanrows

Hurricane Gordon is heading for the Azores and the NHC are unprecidently
expected to issue a hurricane warning for the area.

It will then swing around and strike Ireland and southwest Britain as
a severe extra tropical feature.

Heads up;)

Gordon

Goe me!

ninebeanrows

Its coming.......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2006091806-gordon07l/slp9.png

The GFDL model shows it with cat 3 winds between the Azores and here.
It will have extra tropical charecteristics by then but by golly.

ninebeanrows

Gordon is contuing to intensify against all odds.

She has a beautiful eye and has been increased to a 75KT storm.

She is intensifying not breaking apart as she heads towards the Azores.

What a truely fascinating storm and may indeed have our name on it:eek:

Edit it has intensified officialy to 80KT's but suggestions are that they are airing
on the side of caution and it may well be increased to a CAT 2 storm in the 2100z update.


So so intriguing

ninebeanrows

Hurricane Gordon Discussion Number 31
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al072006
1100 Am Edt Mon Sep 18 2006

Gordon's Eye Has Become Better Defined This Morning In Visible...
Infrared And Microwave Satellite Imagery With A Cold Ring Of About
-60c Cloud Tops Surrounding A Warm -6c Eye. Subjective Dvorak
Estimates Are Between 75 And 90 Kt From Tafb..sab And Kgwc.
Moreover...the Objective Techniques Suggest Winds Of 80 To 100 Kt.
The Intensity Is Thus Increased Up To 80 Kt. Gordon Has Just
Passed The 26c Isotherm And Will Be Moving Into Progressively
Cooler...but Not Cold...waters And The Vertical Shear Should
Increase Substantially In The Next Two Days. High Latitude
Hurricanes...however...do Tend To Be Somewhat Resistant To Vertical
Shear. Nonetheless...it Is Likely That Gordon Has Reached Its
Second Peak In Intensity And Should Begin Some Weakening Shortly.
The Intensity Predictions Are Close To The Ships Model Guidance As
Well As The Previous Forecast.

Gordon Is Moving To The Northeast 55 Degrees At 17 Kt...which Is To
The Right Of The Previous Advisory. A Turn Toward A Due Eastward
Track Is Anticipated By All Models As Gordon Becomes Steered By The
Zonal Westerlies North Of The Subtropical Ridge. The Track
Forecast Is Near The Model Consensus...without The Slower
Ukmet...and Near The Previous Forecast. Analyses From The Fsu
Cyclone Phase Space Diagrams Suggest That All Numerical Models
Transition Gordon To A Vigorous Extratropical System In About 24
Hours. Due To The Rather Resilient Nature Of Gordon...this
Transition Is Delayed To The 36 Hour Forecast Period. After
Extratropical Transition...the Model Guidance Are Split As To
Whether Gordon Will Remain A Separate Extratropical Storm Or
Whether It Will Be Absorbed Into A Developing Extratropical Storm
System To Its North. Given The Small Size Of Gordon...the Latter
Scenario Is Favored With Absorption Occurring Around 60 To 72
Hours.

On The Forecast Track...the System Should Pass Very Near Or Over The
Azores In About 36 Hours. The Official Forecast Indicates That
Gordon Will Have Completed Its Transition Into A Powerful
Extratropical Low By That Time. However...if Future Forecasts
Delay This Transition...tropical Cyclone Watches Or Warnings Would
Be Required. In Any Event...storm Force Winds Are Likely Over The
Azores.

ninebeanrows

Doesn't Gordon look magnificant?

Helene below and Gordon on top.

Gordon is going to be updated to a CAT 2 storm at 2100z thats almost certain.

charlie@w.d

Will Helene be following Gordon to the Azores and possibly Ireland?
She is currently a cat 3 major hurricane.
How far is Helene behind in hours roughly?

darkman2

Im watching this very closely and I am increasingly concerned about its track. The GFS has pushed it further west. Id expect the ECM to do the same later. This could be quite nasty for some areas particularly the South. More later........

The latest charts from the UKMO (fax) suggest no quite as bad as the GFS or NOGAPS suggests. All eyes to the ECM.

The one thing about the fax charts though is that there is real potential for flooding with fronts straddling the country through Wednesday night, Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. The wind really picking up too, the isobars tightening significantly Thursday evening.

billy the squid

Gordon still a Cat 1 after the 21Z advisory, and the intermediary 24Z advisory.

90mph sustained winds is a surprise innit?

Tropical Storm watch also issued for the Azores, hurricane warning possible over night according to the NHC.

Am not holding my breath as to whether or not this will reach us in any way shape or form, it is too early. If it does it will be some sort of extratropical event or just wind and rain, like we always get.

Gordon has a nice eye though.

Not meaning to sound melodramatic, but these are the words of others not mine

On this occasion, The Met office expects to see:

* Heavy, prolonged rain, especially in northern and western areas;

* unseasonably high temperatures, possibly up to 28 Degrees C, especially across south eastern areas;

* the potential for very strong winds, especially affecting northern and western areas;

* large sea swells coming onto southwest and west-facing beaches.

http://www.utvlive.com/newsroom/indepth.asp?id=76793&pt=n

hurricane or not, the surfers will have a field day.

darkman2

billy the squid wrote:

90mph sustained winds is a surprise innit?





http://www.utvlive.com/newsroom/indepth.asp?id=76793&pt=n

hurricane or not, the surfers will have a field day.

Eh surely they mean gusts?! CAT 1 and 90mph sustained winds....no way.

billy the squid

Don't know about UTV, but at the moment the NHC has Gordon at 100 MPH - sustained. but that is right now and not when it reaches near europe.

Anyhoo. looks like Azores are going to get a rare hurricane.

moving fairly fast too at 28 mph. am just thinking, would that make winds of 128 mph in part of the storm?

Oh, hurricane warning issued for the Azores. Only 9 hurricanes have hit the azores since 1851. last one being Charley in 1992.

billy the squid

http://web.meteo.pt/pt/observacao/superficie/observacaoEmaRegional.jsp?regiaoRadio=3&regiao=3&tipoObs=vento

I just realized how ****e I am at portugese. Anywhoo If you know that Vento = Wind then you will know where to look on the site to get the windspeeds which seem to be up to date.

Currently ranging between 15 -25 kmph in the Azores or Arquipélago as they are labeled on the site.

8am interim advisory has Gordon still clocked at 100mph winds.

Also have a look at the front page of the star newspaper this morning

billy the squid

105mph sustained winds.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 190831
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM AST TUE SEP 19 2006

...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM ON THE
AZORES ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF
HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE
38.7 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...1010 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE
AZORES ISLANDS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...GORDON WILL PASS NEAR OR MOVE ACROSS THE AZORES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE AZORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES.

GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...38.1 N...38.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hal1

Where is the google map that you usually add in with the advisorys billy? The 3 day predicted path of the hurricane you know the one.

billy the squid

I have never produced prediction maps. the maps I produce show a storms current location. the 3 day and 5 day prediction maps are produced by the nhc. there is a link to it on page one of the thread, and my map is also on page one of the thread.

Hal1

billy the squid wrote:

I have never produced prediction maps. the maps I produce show a storms current location. the 3 day and 5 day prediction maps are produced by the nhc. there is a link to it on page one of the thread, and my map is also on page one of the thread.

The location maps was what I meant to say.

billy the squid

Gordon is starting to fall apart fairly rapidly now. windspeeds down to 85mph

force eleven

Gordon as it stands may be falling away, however I draw your attention to this chart

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2006091912/slp9.png

UKMO chart - extremely nasty for the western side of Ireland in particular IF this came off

billy the squid

DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE RAGGED-LOOKING IN ITS APPEARANCE.
THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD
MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL IT DEPARTS THE AZORES...HOWEVER
FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
GORDON WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE POST-GORDON CYCLONE COULD IMPACT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND/OR SPAIN AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
STORM. WITHIN 48 HOURS WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MERGE WITH A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES.

From the 11pm ADT discussion on Gordon. It would concur with the above chart.

At present Gordon is in the Azores with 80mph sustained winds, although the readings from the portugese weather service website don't seem to show any major increase in winds.

The northwestern tip of the iberian peninsula will see some wind tomorrow from the then ex Gordon.

darkman2

The media has picked Gordon up now. Some interesting newspaper reports this morning.

Ryder Cup practice has been cancelled today.

The latest UKMO fax charts show that a stronger wind event is certainly going to begin tomorrow with Southeast Ireland at this stage experiencing the strongest winds. Its quite windy today also incidentally and the rain has started in Central/Southern. Flooding in places here. In fact Met Check think the Caha Mts could get 23cm of rainfall over the next 3 days:eek:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=Attach&type=post&id=23294

fatherdougalmag

Surf's up for the south west: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WW3/ww3.b.europe.sig_wav_ht.060.gif

darkman2

Very tight circulation......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2006092012//slp6.png

fatherdougalmag

fatherdougalmag wrote:

Surf's up for the south west: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WW3/ww3.b.europe.sig_wav_ht.060.gif

Shifting around to south east:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WW3/ww3.b.europe.sig_wav_ht.048.gif

boardsdotie

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=1,sa=8,pr=RGB,f=1,c=AIR,se=2,n=24,d=1,v=600,pp=0,t=200609201400#controls

Use this to track the beast as it approaches

billy the squid

Photobucket is having a bit of a hissy fit so there will be a delay in updating the first page map.

Anyway, looks like Gordan has finally gon extratropical and is making it's turn to the north-east. Max winds of 50mph

boardsdotie

billy the squid wrote:

Photobucket is having a bit of a hissy fit so there will be a delay in updating the first page map.

Anyway, looks like Gordan has finally gon extratropical and is making it's turn to the north-east. Max winds of 50mph

Where do you expect it to make landfall

What should we expect in Limerick

billy the squid

I wouldn't know to be honest. but a low pressure system with a central pressure of 974 mb, is what Gordon is expected to be by the time it gets to us

From the meteo france advisory referrenced by the NHC

Tropical storm GORDON 995 located near 37.8N20.9W at 20/18UTC
moving east at 29 kt. Becoming extratropical storm soon. It is
expected 986 40N13W by 21/00UTC then 976 47N09W by 21/12UTC and 974
over Ireland by 22/00UTC.
Low 963 54N23W moving slowly northeast, expected 968 57N20W by
21/00UTC then with little change.
High 1023 near 39N42W with little move.
Rain or thundery showers in all areas above 30N.

http://www.meteo.fr/marine/naviweb/bulletins/ATL_LARGE.html

AFAIR it is expected to be deeper than Charley was in 1986.

EDIT: just to update the 0505 shipping forcast from UK met office

PLYMOUTH SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST VEERING SOUTHWEST 6 TO GALE 8, INCREASING GALE 8 TO STORM 10, PERHAPS VIOLENT STORM 11 LATER. RAIN OR SHOWERS. GOOD

BISCAY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST VEERING SOUTHWEST 6 TO GALE 8, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9, PERHAPS STORM 10 LATER. RAIN OR SHOWERS. GOOD

FITZROY SOLE LUNDY FASTNET SOUTH BECOMING CYCLONIC 7 TO SEVERE GALE 9, OCCASIONALLY STORM 10, PERHAPS VIOLENT STORM 11 LATER. RAIN THEN SHOWERS. MODERATE OR POOR BECOMING GOOD

IRISH SEA SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 6 TO GALE 8, INCREASING 7 TO SEVERE GALE 9, PERHAPS STORM 10 LATER. SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

SHANNON ROCKALL SOUTHERLY BECOMING CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8, PERHAPS SEVERE GALE 9 LATER. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR IN EAST

to find out where the areas on the map are then you can use the map below
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast/images/maps/map_region_shipping_areas.jpg

from met eireann

Severe Weather Alert
Issued at 05:30am 21/9/06

Becoming stormy for a time this evening and early tonight with winds gusting 100 to 120 Km/h in places. Some further flooding likely.


Valid from 1800 21/9/06 to 0600 22/9/06

and

Southeasterly or cyclonic gale force to storm force winds will develop later today and early tonight on all sea areas.
Issued at 05:00 on 21-Sep-2006

They were calling yesterday's winds the "tail end of Gordon" personally I thought that was kind of inaccurate as it was a different system. THIS is the tail end of gordon.

billy the squid

As it is all part of the same system, I think this would be relevent in this thread
http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0921/flooding.html

This is all going to get very ugly later tonight. Even if there is low wind, we are taking on a ****load of rain. The met radar has been Green or Pink the whole night without easing.

FlutterinBantam

:eek: Jaysus.. better bring in the cat tonite.....

Very interesting stuff.... thanks for all the info

jd

High tide in Wexford town is at about 7.30 pm- I wonder is there a chance of the quays flooding again with a deep low and easterlyish winds...
jd

fatherdougalmag

Some kind of surge forecast for later tonight/tomorrow morning and into tomorrow afternoon.

Villain

Sky News Weather predicted winds of 70mph to 80mph on the southeast coast of Ireland tonight. Its going to get windy!

darkman2

Gordon is approaching the South Coast and the gradient is beginning to tighten. Should be seeing the first of the strong winds here soon. Southwest England now reporting gusts of over 60mph and strengthening. The gradient will tighten fast across the East of the country this evening and early tonight and this is when the strongest winds will occur with damage to trees and power lines. Whilst the West of Ireland wont see the worst of the winds, the main concern here is very heavy rain which will bring some flooding but hopefully not too bad. Gusts in excess of 80mph may bring some disruption to the East and South by morning.