Housing bubble starting to pop?

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

Jebus, didn't realise the inventory buildup was so high - since August nationally according to to Daftwatch there is twice as many properties for sale??, surely this cannot be right?

Yes it is correct,

also:
http://www.thepropertypin.com/forum/

above forum was started after askaboutmoney.com banned people from talking negatively about house prices

and this website lists actual houses that have dropped their asking price:

http://irishhousepricesfalling.blogspot.com/

its possible to track web pages as they were in the past using google cache
i.e if a house was for sale a few months ago you can see it online AS IT WAS those months ago. You can then compare it with how it is online today - and see the differences - i.e asking price
its not sensationalist its happening its a fact

oh and this is funny:
http://www.thepropertypin.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=321
and this is related: http://www.neighbours.ie/belfry/showthread.php?t=60

^ basically people on neighbours.ie are getting windy about house prices and decide to ban the discussion

SimpleSam06

DonalMcTavish wrote:

Actually they pull down over 51K after tax (before mortgage interest relief of about €1600 ).

Thats over €4200 a month between them.

Donnie your Polishness is coming more and more into question; I'm reporting you to the mods for being a shill, and I suggest everyone else that cares about honest debate does too. If you're a real estate agent, as you almost certainly are, just come out and say it, you'll get a lot more respect than pretending to be one of a fictional immigrant minority aching after Irish real estate.

Deleted User wrote:

above forum was started after askaboutmoney.com banned people from talking negatively about house prices

Excellent find Blindjustice, I'll be reading that with relish. The closing of the AAM thread was a disgrace by anyone's standards. Or at the very least it displayed a stunning ignorance on the part of the admins on how to run a website.

Southeast Asia was great, I'd advise anyone without a mortgage to try it.

SimpleSam06

DonalMcTavish wrote:

Thats over €4200 a month between them.

Just a thought here Donnie, I don't know if you or any of the other real estate agents have had this one asked of you yet, but basically what you are all saying is that we should abandon the old paradigm of 3x or 4x single income as a reasonable guide price for housing, and instead apply that to couples.

By that reasoning, should we in fact be looking at the stock of houses as being double what it actually is? I mean the number of houses available for purchase is predicated as a percentage of total stock based upon the number of individual people who will buy them. Doesn't that mean that if only couples can buy, the amount of housing stock is effectively doubled, with regard to the number of people who are able to buy?

SimpleSam06

And just to pour a little more acidic scorn upon the balding beaurocrats running AAM, (no disrespect to balding beaurocrats anywhere else mind you ) from their recent policy decision...

Folks

We have banned the discussion of house prices movements for the moment on Askaboutmoney. This applies to those who assume prices are going to rise as well as those who assume that they are going to fall.

Brendan

Good lad Brendan. And yet...

What precisely is inaccurate about Ravima's post above in your opinion?

Its still kosher to discuss prices going up after Cowen's stamp duty decision. What a bad, sad, flappy joke.

whizzbang

Longfield wrote:

Jebus, didn't realise the inventory buildup was so high - since August nationally according to to Daftwatch there is twice as many properties for sale??, surely this cannot be right?

Twice as many properties for sale with ever increasing interest rates..surely this can only go one way ?

yep, those figures are rea, I started recording them in July then handed them over to NoNotPassGo when he started his web site.

either there is loads of inventory or daft is doing very very very well

simple sam - ask about money closed the discussion and banned talk about property prices shortly after an annual general meeting. Now bear in mind also that askaboutmoney also started to accept donations around the same time: in THEIR words: By popular demand, Askaboutmoney is now accepting donations

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/announcement.php?f=2&a=28
some posters think I am being too cynical about the possibility of a link.
Oh and loads of posts were being deleted silently through the thread - I saved a hard copy of it and was trawling through it and noticed it didnt match the online copy!

whizzbang

whizzbang wrote:

either there is loads of inventory or daft is doing very very very well

myhome does seem to be losing business to daft! but does anyone have figures for last year to compare?


oh and have ye all heard about paddypower and the betting on house price growth for next year.

The odds are even on it being less then 3%.

Plissken1

Don't worry the Gov will make sure that the housing boom continues, I mean they have to, our entire economy depends on it. Its a house of cards that they must keep up, somehow. Better get the glue out !!

D'Peoples Voice

faceman wrote:

The other reason that i feel there is no crash on the cards is this year's budget. ....I expect that they will avoid dis-incentivising investors and relaxing stamp duty some more (or increasing mortgage interest relief) for FTB's.

The fact that existing FTBs now receive substantially higher mortgage interest relief than other buyers, will this create a disincentive for FTBs to trade up and lose a large part of that mortgage relief?

With properties being difficult to shift, and interest rates increasing, it makes it difficult for a lot of people to trade up. Adding to the fall off in investors from the market, FTBs may not have much competition in the house buying market next year!:rolleyes:

Plissken1

Plissken1 wrote:

Don't worry the Gov will make sure that the housing boom continues, I mean they have to, our entire economy depends on it. Its a house of cards that they must keep up, somehow. Better get the glue out !!

not a bit worried - I sold my house.



ps there is not enough glue to go around

DonalMcTavish

Was just sitting here looking out the window.
The house across the road has been for sale for 3 weeks. Not much action in the evenings i've been home.
But tonight there must have been at least 30 people in 2 groups who went in.

Do-more

Ah the EA's must be rushed off their poor little feet today now that the uncertainty of the budget has been put to bed!!!:D

Was passing Bertie's local today and the two lads staffing Lisney's across the way were standing in the window looking out, with their hands in their pockets, just taking a short break from the mad rush I'm sure;)

Blackjack

DonalMcTavish wrote:

Was just sitting here looking out the window.
The house across the road has been for sale for 3 weeks. Not much action in the evenings i've been home.
But tonight there must have been at least 30 people in 2 groups who went in.

30 People in 2 groups - do you mean 2 groups of 15 people?. Sounds like someone's having a party.;)

are they still in there???

SimpleSam06

Deleted User wrote:

Oh and loads of posts were being deleted silently through the thread - I saved a hard copy of it and was trawling through it and noticed it didnt match the online copy!

Wut. How many rain forests died to archive that monster?

SimpleSam06

Do-more wrote:

Was passing Bertie's local today and the two lads staffing Lisney's across the way were standing in the window looking out, with their hands in their pockets, just taking a short break from the mad rush I'm sure;)

I wonder how many more excuses the EAs can come up with. They've been doing well so far, what with it being the slow season during the summer, a levelling off during the last few months, and now its tension before the budget that has failed to explain lack of demand. Whats next, people are spending too much money on christmas presents to be able to afford houses?

On a not-really-unrelated note, I see SUV sales are making headlines as dropping fast for the first time in six years...

Sponge Bob

DonalMcTavish wrote:

Was just sitting here looking out the window.
The house across the road has been for sale for 3 weeks. Not much action in the evenings i've been home.
But tonight there must have been at least 30 people in 2 groups who went in.

You are a dreadful salesman Donald, you expect us to believe that estate agents bring groups of 15 people at a time to view houses when selling , do they **** !

Maybe they were prospective tenants , all 15 of them, thats more like you estate agents eh!

OOPS I meant HARD DISK COPY!!!
No I didnt chop down the Amazon
I didnt do it......

D'Peoples Voice

SimpleSam06 wrote:

I wonder how many more excuses the EAs can come up with. They've been doing well so far, what with it being the slow season during the summer, a levelling off during the last few months, and now its tension before the budget that has failed to explain lack of demand. Whats next?

It will be the political parties causing uncertainty over stamp duty approaching the election. We'll hear how FTBs are holding off until they see who gets elected.

miju

at the moment the EA's are saying sales will traditionally "pick up" in march when all the new properties come on sale.........****ing hilarious reasoning.......the market never picked up sept when it's traditionally busy (and this was BEFORE stamp duty was an issue at all) and then of course they neglact to consider that in order to sell all the new stock they'll have to get through the backlog of old stock first

Reyman

I'm following this thread with some interest because it gives a more realistic view of what's happening in the marketplace than I can get from any of the newspapers with their 'property advertising' interests.

I would like to say that when we had the last property slump in the 1980s, property did not fall in price. What happpened was that activity practically ceased i.e. no houses came on the market except for 'stress' sales eg. Executors sales etc.

So I'm not certain of this theory of a huge 'backlog' forcing prices down, though it may do

Sponge Bob

Reyman wrote:

I would like to say that when we had the last property slump in the 1980s, property did not fall in price. What happpened was that activity practically ceased i.e. no houses came on the market except for 'stress' sales eg. Executors sales etc.

Myth. The last property slump (c 1981-1987) occured at a time of high inflation unlike now. Inflation generally was 20% in 1981, house prices stayed static. House prices fell in real terms by 16% in that year because every other good inflated in price .

There was a boom like the last 10 years in the 1970s . my ould fella bought a house for £10,000 in 1972 that was worth £50,000 in 1979 (and about £50000 in in 1987 too) .

AGAIN, inflation was very high during that period in the 1970s so it did not rise by 500% in real terms, maybe only 200%-300% although both 1975 and 1981 saw the highest inflation ever ( 20-25% in one year) . The period 1972-1985 (roughly ) is called the Great Inflation period and the stats for Ireland are in this link about Great Inflation as are interest rates
See page 32 and 12 ( of 67) for the data supporting my assertions in this post.

So I'm not certain of this theory of a huge 'backlog' forcing prices down, though it may do

We only had 10% of our housing stock empty either side of that 1980s slump and its nearer 17% now. The table below is taken from census data where someone went to every house to check in April 2006



As inflation will not help to massage the slump this time (its only 3%) the prices will have to drop owing to oversupply .

They cannot so as they did in the 1980s , stay static with high inflation meaning they are falling in real terms but still worth the same . Its Simple really.

Anotehr way of looking at 1981 was that there was no money around to rise prices with because the government was taking 20% of the house value in interest rates off every mortgage owner EVERY YEAR :eek:

SimpleSam06

miju wrote:

and then of course they neglact to consider that in order to sell all the new stock they'll have to get through the backlog of old stock first

Oh yes, lets not forget that two is the new one, with the minimum number of first time buyers able to afford a new house being two, so the 17% of housing being available for sale is in fact 25%, adjusting for the fact that not all house buyers are FTBs, otherwise it would be 34%.



Its terrible how fiddling numbers can come back to bite REAs in the ass. Just terrible.

well we are witnessing immediate drops in asking prices after yesterdays budget.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=366

DonalMcTavish

Sponge Bob wrote:

You are a dreadful salesman Donald, you expect us to believe that estate agents bring groups of 15 people at a time to view houses when selling , do they **** !

Maybe they were prospective tenants , all 15 of them, thats more like you estate agents eh!

I take it you never went to a viewing of a house after 6pm. i have. If you did you would see several people in each viewing because people cant look at houses during work hours.

DonalMcTavish

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Donnie your Polishness is coming more and more into question; I'm reporting you to the mods for being a shill, and I suggest everyone else that cares about honest debate does too. If you're a real estate agent, as you almost certainly are, just come out and say it, you'll get a lot more respect than pretending to be one of a fictional immigrant minority aching after Irish real estate.

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Just a thought here Donnie, I don't know if you or any of the other real estate agents have had this one asked of you yet, but basically what you are all saying is that we should abandon the old paradigm of 3x or 4x single income as a reasonable guide price for housing, and instead apply that to couples.

I pointed out that you were a huge €11K off (and not for the first time in this thread) in your calculation of a couple on €30K eachs after tax income and you come out with the above comments. Its ok to be wrong you know. It was just a correction (which you ignored). No need to question my job or my nationality.

You have such a blinkered view of anything to do with the housing market. Why do you accuse me of being an estate agent? Why dont you just reply to my posts and not attack me? Is not that against the rules of boards.
You constantly question my main job (my other is a salseman for an it company in the evenings and weekends - not that it matters) or my nationality (both of which i stated earlier and both of which are no longer relevant to the post you are now attacking me personally on.)
Surely the moderators should be looking at you not me.

BigEejit

DonalMcTavish wrote:

Actually they pull down over 51K after tax (before mortgage interest relief of about €1600 ).

Thats over €4200 a month between them.

As you mentioned it:

Where did you get those figures from? when I worked in Ireland until the end of 2004 I was getting crucified by that bastage of a taxman .... between my wife and myself we were paying an awful lot more in taxes than the 1/6 you are pointing at. What arent you including? prsi? pension? (I know its not a tax, but you had better treat it as a tax if you know whats good for you) ...add on car loans and cost of commuting to your usual electricity/heating/council charges/etc etc and there isnt a lot left in the kitty....

Calina

Interestingly enough that figure made zero sense to me either based on my own position.

Calina

DonalMcTavish wrote:

I take it you never went to a viewing of a house after 6pm. i have. If you did you would see several people in each viewing because people cant look at houses during work hours.

Well I have and the most I ever saw was ca 15. I find that the 9am on a Saturday morning if it's a house is generally more popular. Lately it's been one or two at a post 6pm viewing.

I live in Dublin by the way.

SimpleSam06

DonalMcTavish wrote:

I pointed out that you were a huge €11K off (and not for the first time in this thread) in your calculation of a couple on €30K eachs after tax income and you come out with the above comments. Its ok to be wrong you know.

If I'm wrong I'm wrong, and fair enough if I am. Better information than I have to hand is always welcome, but judging by several posters since then, theres not much wrong with what I'm saying. I'll leave that up to them to sort out, however, since as I said they know better than me.

DonalMcTavish wrote:

It was just a correction (which you ignored). No need to question my job or my nationality.

If you are misrepresenting yourself as a Polish person in an effort to make out that there is a large immigrant population buying houses (a "fact" that has been already thoroughly debunked), you are well out of order. So I'm calling you out on it. Your failure to respond to the several questions already put to you in Polish combined with your well and truly bullish stance makes you a prime candidate for being a shill, which I'll stand by until proved otherwise.

DonalMcTavish wrote:

my nationality (both of which i stated earlier and both of which are no longer relevant to the post you are now attacking me personally on.) Surely the moderators should be looking at you not me.

Feel free to PM the moderators any time you want to, I already have. As I said, if you are an REA, own up, you'll get a hell of a lot more respect than if you're making out to be something you are not. If you'd rather make out that your earlier claim to being Polish has no relevance to the discussion for some reason, well that's up to you.