Housing bubble starting to pop?

Gurgle

Sponge Bob wrote:

50 year Interest Only 107% mortgages fixed for 20 years and stuff to confound me.

Do you live in Ireland?

Sponge Bob wrote:

Here one for ye lads, back to my favourite topic

We know about the empties!

Sponge Bob

Gurgle wrote:

Do you live in Ireland? We know about the empties!

Yes, and are we not pure MAD! the lot of us Gurgle (or is there a rational considered explanation in you as to why not ? )

CiaranC

Can you post that graph again Sponge Bob? I have a feeling you are trying to tell us something about empties here.

Sponge Bob

CiaranC wrote:

Can you post that graph again Sponge Bob?

Gurgle

Sponge Bob wrote:

Yes, and are we not pure MAD! the lot of us Gurgle (or is there a rational considered explanation in you as to why not ? )

Ive been reading boards way too long to think otherwise.

Just wondering where I can get 107% financing over 50 years fixed for the first 20?

If that, or anything remotely like it were actually true, I would seriously consider buying a '2nd home' to rent out now!

bounty

i hate that stupid graph bob

it doesnt say it's source, and it uses stupid unreadable sideways pointy things

the best graph is a vertical bar chart

Sponge Bob

sources posted long ago had you bothered to look.

2006 data Note its 300,000 empties but 275,0000 'hard' empties census data.

1971-2002 data from esri from census data (table 4)

The sample size in each case is every home in the state at the time. You do your own graph so and if I like it I'll link it instead. Hows that for fair ?

D'Peoples Voice

bounty wrote:

i hate that stupid graph bob

it doesnt say it's source, and it uses stupid unreadable pointy things

To be fair Bob,
we don't need to know about the empties.
Most people with any background in economics knows that if there are not enough houses for our population, then both the price of houses and rents would both be increasing.

The fact that rents have been falling in recent years, means we do not have a housing shortage:)
Everything we need to know is given in the level of rents in the country.

Sponge Bob

D'Peoples Voice wrote:

To be fair Bob,
we don't need to know about the empties.

well we do actually but

Most people with any background in economics knows that if there are not enough houses for our population, then both the price of houses and rents would both be increasing.

The fact that rents have been falling in recent years, means we do not have a housing shortage:)
Everything we need to know is given in the level of rents in the country.

In principle thats exactly what I think as well. The lack of pricing power by landlords was noted by me years ago and is the best guide to the real worth of the asset, ie how much it rents for. Note the way that ratios of house prices vs rents In Ireland have gone MAD! according to the OECD , but only in recent years . Graph on us and comparisons with our rich peers all c.page 9 of the OECD report .

Some will come back and say that the number of houses per 1000 people in Ireland is low. Its near the EU average (circa 420) today but was not 4 years ago. Could we have been playing catchup with our rich peers ?

Thats a no. Our average household size is bigger which means we simply require fewer houses per 1000 people than say Germany. (about 10% less for the same number of people see table 5 of the ESRI report ) Unsurprisingly our housing also has far more 3 bed units and 4 bed units ( no linked source for that lads soz ) as a % of the total than the EU average and can take more adults per unit .

Also note that table is of ADULTS per INHABITED home and does not count our larger numbers of sprogs per family .

Some of the reasons for our high vacancy rates have to do with ancestral country places held by recently urbanised Irish people. Thats why I accept the natural floor of 10% empty in Ireland as compared to a typical 5% elsewhere in Europe.

No matter how I do the figures , clipping what is really 300k empty down to 275k and assuming that 10% empty is 'natural' therefore only analysing the 6% surplus over that and justify running such a surplus of empties as I do ......I still find a figure of 100,000 / 5% or so that is hard speculative froth built up during the boom years and held solely/mainly for capital appreciation.

MAD! MAD! we all are MAD! we are so we are so we are .

Caterpillar

Gurgle wrote:

My agenda is purely to argue with people who make unfounded predictions and try to ram them down everybodies throats. I have a 'starter home' (as my Mum called it when we bought it) where I intend to stay for at least another 30 years. Boom, crash, negative equity, stamp duty, even rising interest rates are all pretty much irrelevant to me.

Rising interest rates are irrelevant to you???? Do you have a 30 year fixed rate?? ..... you sound (read) like a child in a tantrum.

I don't think anyone is trying to ram any predictions down anyone's throat........ there have been dozens of solid arguments for a severe drop in house prices throughout this thread, you should go back and read them.
The people who make the least sense on this thread are the FTB who bought recently.......... you all seem to think that everybody wants a crash....the simple fact is, a crash will hurt all of us. More tax, greater unemployment, more crime etc etc.

Gurgle

Caterpillar wrote:

there have been dozens of solid arguments for a severe drop in house prices throughout this thread, you should go back and read them.

I'm gonna drop out now and dig up this thread in 6 months time to go

jank

Gurgle wrote:

I'm gonna drop out now and dig up this thread in 6 months time to go

Well interests rate are predicated to go up .5 to .75% in between that time.

Hope you dont mind paying more for your home.

Sponge Bob

A good friend is contracting in Citywest and the contract has just been extended to end next year so he went to have a look at (maybe buying) a new shoebox nearby. These shoeboxes are not exactly flying of the shelves .

While he was there, ho humming around the place , he was offered an extra €10k worth of unpublished allowances ( sliderobes and flooring ) by the auctioneer. This is a very big firm not some small fry. Has anybody else notice allowances going up quietly on new builds, say in Adamstown for example ??? although he did not LOOK in Adamstown yet but is about to.

I remember in 2001 when prices were very soggy that some builders put the allowances up from £10k (punts back then ) to as much as £30k in order to hold to a price point around the £300k mark at the time. Consider them to be an unpublished discount .

SimpleSam06

DonalMcTavish wrote:

Quiet Obviously, they have an agenda. Even going as far as saying they have called estate agents to sell fictional property and they refused their businness (we called one for the fun of it in Galwayand put him on speaker phone. After he had finished trying to get our fictional property on his books we told him about this thread).

I find it not unlikely that you are the estate agent, my son.

Dobry wieczór, co słychać? Jaki masz zawód? Gdzie mieszkasz? Nie wierzę w to...

Quick, run, find a Polish person to translate that! You can pay them barely minimum wage to do it, so that they will have a mortgage quicker!

CiaranC

Or maybe they can come on here with their pittance and whine about how the world owes them a house

SimpleSam06

CiaranC wrote:

Or maybe they can come on here with their single income pittance and whine about how the world owes them a house

Ah ciaran, you're back. Hows the equity hanging?

EDIT: Why did you remove single income from my pittance? Its not bad enought that its a pittance, but not even single income now?

SimpleSam06

Heres a couple of juicy tidbits from the AAM thread, first we have a graph of inventory over the last few months on Daft, courtesy of the highly skilled Whizzbang:

And second, a link to an Irish Times article:

It's amusing , this rush to sell by the owners of second-hand houses. Given the market is overloaded, some sellers are having to drop their prices, to achieve a sale. Of course, they may not reveal the discount to their neighbours, thereby perpetuating the fiction that higher prices are being achieved.

The neighbours are not fooled, but are in denial, because they are in a panic. The result, as one estate put it to me this week, is a wholesale rush to dispose of second-hand houses, in spite of a glut on the market. It's hard, too, to have sympathy for the laggards who are making fools of themselves by rushing to sell when the market has peaked.

Now, it's probably too late to realise the massive profits of recent years. It was put to me graphically by one estate agent: "In the past three months, I sold three identical houses in the same street. The prices were - €1.5m, €1.4.m, €1.1m - in that declining order per month. The market peaked in June and had been in decline since - but sellers have panicked. There's no telling them to wait."

CiaranC

Sam wrote:

Ah ciaran, you're back. Hows the equity hanging?

Bit perilously if Im honest. Hows things at your mams?

SimpleSam06

CiaranC wrote:

Bit perilously if Im honest. Hows things at your mams?

Well at least you're honest. As for me Mam's, why, do you think you'll be needing to rent a room soon?

lads come visit me in australia!

CiaranC

Sam wrote:

Well at least you're honest. As for me Mam's, why, do you think you'll be needing to rent a room soon?

Ah, I know yis are short of the few bob, but I wont be needing a room. Thanks for the offer though. Why not rent one to your poor friends you mention in the OP? You could get some kind of commune going seeing as capatalism hasnt worked out for you

blindjustice, would you ever fix your sig out of that

SimpleSam06

CiaranC wrote:

Ah, I know yis are short of the few bob, but I wont be needing a room. Thanks for the offer though. Why not rent one to your poor friends you mention in the OP? You could get some kind of commune going seeing as capatalism hasnt worked out for you

Yeah, we'll keep a spot for you for when the ECB base rates hit 4% next May, and 5% in 2008. Ah no seriously best of luck with the place, maybe not the best time to buy, but I hope you can hang on to it...

Deleted User wrote:

lads come visit me in australia!

I've already got me plans made for the winter, unfortunately, I'm off to the tropics for a holiday in two weeks, for three weeks, and off again in January, for another three weeks in the Pacific. Nothing like a spot of midwinter surfing.

D'Peoples Voice

What do people think will be the effect on house prices caused by the implementation of the EU Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings from January 1st 2007.
http://www.environ.ie/DOEI/DOEIPub.nsf/6fb57b90102ce64c80256d12003a7a0d/47188c66bc0fbd9b802571bd003f73cd?OpenDocument
Obviously I see the Government have built in exemptions as they usually do.
However a second hand house is more marketable against a new house if it has an energy certificate, I can't see any rational person spending over a quarter of a million on a house without knowing it's energy rating.
I'm telling a friend of mine to sell his investment property now because in it's construction, the builders never used insulated concrete (http://www.eco-block.com) just cavity blocks, so it's energy rating will be dreadful.

CiaranC

Sam wrote:

Ah no seriously best of luck with the place, maybe not the best time to buy, but I hope you can hang on to it...

Cheers, nice of you to say. I'll be able to hang on to it alright, as Ive said I'll be able to afford the mortgage fairly comfortably out to 5-6%. Its what its worth when Im looking to sell 5 years down the road thats the issue.

SimpleSam06

D'Peoples Voice wrote:

What do people think will be the effect on house prices caused by the implementation of the EU Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings from January 1st 2007.

Well it will obviously push up the cost of materials, but then again materials and labour only form 35% of the cost of a house anyway, including profit for the builder. I can't see it having a particularily significant effect, except as another talking point for Estate Agents.

DonalMcTavish

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Heres a couple of juicy tidbits from the AAM thread, first we have a graph of inventory over the last few months on Daft, courtesy of the highly skilled Whizzbang:

And second, a link to an Irish Times article:

Has it not been discussed on AAm how Dafts stats are not entirely accurate.

I'd like to see this graph plotted all the way back to about 2004 too. Just to see if the line is about the same slope all the way back.

Sponge Bob

Its 22047 now and was 14000 in July so its gone up 50% in the last 3 months alone with an accelerating trend . If it does the same in the next 2 quarters (50% up qtr on qtr ) it will hit 50,000 by April, phew

50,000 is what we built in a year in the late 1990s early 2000's . Daft only has listings for some of the property for sale in Ireland , you are an estate agent McTavish so tell us is that 20,000 50% of all houses for sale in Ireland today or is it more than that. ???

Dzieki

SimpleSam06

DonalMcTavish wrote:

Has it not been discussed on AAm how Dafts stats are not entirely accurate.

I'd like to see this graph plotted all the way back to about 2004 too. Just to see if the line is about the same slope all the way back.

Hey your English has improved, and picked up a mild Irish twang, congratulations! Mods, anyone, mods...

Sponge Bob

you mean IAVI IPAV IAVI Sam Never came across the oppresseed variety before though

DonalMcTavish

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Hey your English has improved, and picked up a mild Irish twang, congratulations! Mods, anyone, mods...

Why do you and spongebob keep making things up?
How can someone have a 'twang' in text.
What difference would it make if i was Polish or Arab or anything else.
Why so hard to believe someone is from another country. What difference does it make.

Not that it matters but
I am not an estate agent. I am a HR manager in a university and have lived in Ireland for 8 years.

You should go to Poland or Latvia or Lithuania (the 3 countries you talk about most) take a trip about 30 miles outside the main cities and drive around and then come back and let everyone here know if you would ever expect anyone to wish to live their again, even if you were born there.

You dont know a thing about immigrants or where they are from at all.

Most eastern european immigrants here are from rural areas of eastern europe. They will never return.
The difference between Ireland and a rural Eastern European areas is something you would never believe unless you went to one.
So please stop thinkiing you know everything about immigrants. You dont.

I would like nothing better than house prices to fall, but i do not believe that there is the evidence that thay will fall at all.

Sale prices are not falling at all. Are they? Where? Certainly not in Dublin. Are they falling where you live?
Asking prices might be falling but this is no indication at all that there is a problem.
When you can show that actual sale prices are going down accross the board then you may have soemthing. Can you? Please do. But dont pretend that asking prices being reduced is a sign of a failing proerty market.
It is a sign that increments in asking prices are unrealistic. Thats all. This happens from time to time in any market. eg Even the job market. If a software developer asks for €70K and only gets €60K and was getting €50K in his last job he is better off still, he just was unrealistic about his asking price.
This is just him trying it on. He has not affected the market at all.