Air Lingus Share anybody intresting in buying 5K worth of shares

jjbrien

Im just pointing out hat by the time the fleet renewal project takes place it the current A330's will have an avarage age of 15 years old so it will be time indeed for new 787's or A350. Who knows there could be a better aircraft on the market at the time but as it stands now the newest is the 787 which is the most fuel efficant plane avaible. You may be right that its just qucik cash for the goverment. i dont expect to see a hudge retun on my invertment but i should expect 10% to 15% and as soon as that happens i will pull out.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

interestingly - there could be a counter-strategy that would work with AL.

People who got stung by Eircom; buying in the hope of immediately selling, causing the stock to fall in the first few weeks.

Might be buying opportunities in the first few weeks as a result.

[or maybe this is just a bit far-fetched]

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

p.s. this is what Dermot Desmond said in an article in the Sunday Independent at the weekend:

If Desmond sees reason to buy; i think that says it all. Can anyone point out the last investment mistake he made? He doesn't throw his money around foolishly.

______________________________________________________________

Dermot Desmond

Dermot Desmond, chairman of International Investment and Underwriting, one of the country's most enterprising investment companies, will be buying the shares.

"I know very little about airlines," he says, "but I take the view that Sean Fitzpatrick [the former chair of Anglo Irish Banks currently on the Aer Lingus board] would not associate himself with failure. If Sean is supporting something, I believe it will be successful.

"I think I will buy the shares - if I get an allocation."

"From an airline that was bankrupt just a few years ago Aer Lingus has made a remarkable recovery. Willie Walsh did an outstanding job and his role should be acknowledged. He set them on the right road with a long-term market segment model which seems to be working.

"There is likely to be continuous growth in the demand for their services in the coming years which offers longer term attractions."

But there was a word of warning from the owner of London City Airport - said to be on the verge of another killing with the sale of the London jewel, which he bought for £23m and is rumoured to be selling for over £400m. "I much prefer airports to airlines."

__________________________________________________________

btw, i'm not personally buying shares because i don't have any spare savings at the moment - so i am impartial on this.

Bluehair

Roundtower2 wrote:

p.s. this is what Dermot Desmond said in an article in the Sunday Independent at the weekend:

If Desmond sees reason to buy; i think that says it all. Can anyone point out the last investment mistake he made? He doesn't throw his money around foolishly.

Even more interestingy was the usual negative sentiment (without much substantion) from a lot of other potential investors.

Everyone knows the gov wants this deal done and since the exchequer is swimming in money and with the eircom disaster still in memory they're going to let it go cheap. The main message from big investors is "we won't touch it unless we get a huge discount". They're in a good position to force this.

Smart money will jump on board early and sell a percentage monthly afterwards to take advantage of growth at the market sets a fair value.

Watch the papers next year screaming blue murder at how Aer Lingus was sold for a fraction of its' true market value and how "so much public money was lost to the fat investors etc."

To be honest the gov can't really win this either way, we can though

RainyDay

I'd recommend that you wait and see what Senator Shane Ross recommends, and then do the exact opposite (given his past track record on recommendations, e.g. hold Eircom, sell Irish Permanent).

Sarsfield

I think Aer Lingus is pretty well run as an airline.

However despite the predictions of massive growth, I see a significant reduction in the aviation business in the long term. Oil prices are not going to return to the ridiculously low levels of previous years. And I expect to see tax on JetA1 sooner or later. Not to mention other environmental taxes & constraints.

The era of taking weekend breaks by air will be a short-lived one. Flying will become a lot more expensive and once again be limited to the rich and the business classes. It won't happen overnight but it will start soon. In fact with fuel surcharges it's starting already.

It may be possible to make money on Aer Lingus but it will take good market timing.

Personally I intend to profit on aviation by doing a lot of flying while it's still affordable!

lomb

why does any airline need to float to renew aircraft? ever heard of leasing?

lomb

Sarsfield wrote:

Personally I intend to profit on aviation by doing a lot of flying while it's still affordable!

even if oil doubled it wouldnt add alot to a ticket imho. its just one of many costs.

Sonderval

Problem with Aer Lingus, as stated, is a problem with the aviation industry in general - fuel prices. When your spending nearly 25% of your cash flow fueling your aircraft, you become precariously placed in the world economy. I don't think anyone needs to be reminded that oil prices are not coming back down.

Welcome the the era of peak oil.

I heard it from other investors that in order to make millions from an airline, you need to be a billionare first. I.e., from riches to rags

In saying that, if your dead set on cashing in, you'll probably make some cash of the IPO within the first 2 months. I would be strongly against holding much longer after that.

And for the love of god, read between the lines of these business people who offer forecasts/advice. From Mr. Desmond's article:


I believe it will be successful.
I think I will buy the shares
He set them on the right road with a long-term market segment model which seems to be working
There is likely to be continuous growth in the demand for their services
I much prefer airports to airlines


No investor can offer absolute advice - when your right 51% of the time, your still wrong 49%. Make your own analysis - do not trust others to make it for you.

joebhoy1916

jjbrien wrote:

I am interested in buying some Aer Lingus Shares as I believe they will be quite profitable. I read last week in an Norwegian newspaper that SAS and some other Airlines are thinking of buying out Aer Lingus after the shares are floated.

I have €5k to use. Is anbody else out there interested in going in op the oppertunity to buy shares as the minium amount you can buy is €10k?

To be honest you might not make alot of money! From what I know you would have to a very large amount of money in to make any kinda decent return! To be honest you wont make much with 5k or even 10k IMO

Cute Hoor

RainyDay wrote:

I'd recommend that you wait and see what Senator Shane Ross recommends, and then do the exact opposite (given his past track record on recommendations, e.g. hold Eircom, sell Irish Permanent).

RainyDay, you have found the secret to successful investing, do the opposite to what the good Senator recommends and you are almost guaranteed to become rich. Advised all & sundry to sell Irish Permanent on the first day at anything you could get over the launch price of £1.60, went up 6 times approx within a year, Eircom as you say, and also got the First Active badly wrong.

rondjon

Roundtower2 wrote:

p.s. this is what Dermot Desmond said in an article in the Sunday Independent at the weekend:

If Desmond sees reason to buy; i think that says it all. Can anyone point out the last investment mistake he made? He doesn't throw his money around foolishly.

______________________________________________________________

Dermot Desmond

Dermot Desmond, chairman of International Investment and Underwriting, one of the country's most enterprising investment companies, will be buying the shares.

"I know very little about airlines," he says, "but I take the view that Sean Fitzpatrick [the former chair of Anglo Irish Banks currently on the Aer Lingus board] would not associate himself with failure. If Sean is supporting something, I believe it will be successful.

"I think I will buy the shares - if I get an allocation."

"From an airline that was bankrupt just a few years ago Aer Lingus has made a remarkable recovery. Willie Walsh did an outstanding job and his role should be acknowledged. He set them on the right road with a long-term market segment model which seems to be working.

"There is likely to be continuous growth in the demand for their services in the coming years which offers longer term attractions."

But there was a word of warning from the owner of London City Airport - said to be on the verge of another killing with the sale of the London jewel, which he bought for £23m and is rumoured to be selling for over £400m. "I much prefer airports to airlines."

Did Mr. Desmond declare the conflict of interest here when making these statements? Aer Lingus is a client of NCB, and NCB have close ties still to their former owner/founder.