Air Lingus Share anybody intresting in buying 5K worth of shares

jjbrien

I am interested in buying some Aer Lingus Shares as I believe they will be quite profitable. I read last week in an Norwegian newspaper that SAS and some other Airlines are thinking of buying out Aer Lingus after the shares are floated.

I have €5k to use. Is anbody else out there interested in going in op the oppertunity to buy shares as the minium amount you can buy is €10k?

dunkamania

I thought they hadnt realised the flotation price.

How can you have already decided to buy?

jjbrien

there will be a proft out of these guareented. The price that they are sold to the public will be cheaper than the flotation price as the goverment has already said.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

No such thing as guaranteed profits jjbrien!

But, you can reasonably expect a good gain on these - i'd say they will be priced to give an immediate 7-15% gain.

If it was anymore then the government would be accused of "giving away" the national airline.

If it was any less then the government would be risking some unhappy voters in the run-up to the national election.

When is the flotation planned for?

whizzbang

Eircom anyone?

jjbrien

It wont be like eircom the goverment leartn their lesson. 15% is what I was planning for a return on. Anbody interested?

Sonnenblumen

This will be a flop, just wait and see..

Workers have negotiated an unbelievable deal, c 15% but rising steadily with guarantees on no dilution etc This might gain in very short term literally initial days/weeks post IPO. But medium term this is a bucket of ***** to stay clear of !

Why, most airlines lose money, aer lingus will be no different. The so called successful low cost carriers who apparently make profits but what do shareholders get?? SFA apart from some rising/falling SP's but no divis. AL might pay a small divi but the management and staff have organised the best screw and paid themselves the best divii.

Watch out for the new Alfie Kane's etc. They haven't gone away!

Hey surely there are better ways to make € 500 (post CGT etc) than gambling with AL.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

Three points:

1. Eircom did return a very good profit for those who bought and then sold within the few days after flotation

2. Dermot Mannion (current CEO Aer Lingus) is no Aflie Kane. He has an excellent pedigree in the airline industry

3. "most airlines lose money". Southwest Airlines in the US has never lost money after its first few years. Aer Lingus has also opened a lot of interesting routes. It is also currently profit-making. The business of Aer Lingus has to be judged based on how it is doing itself - not how some dodgy American and continental european airlines have done.

Sonnenblumen

Roundtower2 wrote:

Three points:

1. Eircom did return a very good profit for those who bought and then sold within the few days after flotation

2. Dermot Mannion (current CEO Aer Lingus) is no Aflie Kane. He has an excellent pedigree in the airline industry

3. "most airlines lose money". Southwest Airlines in the US has never lost money after its first few years. Aer Lingus has also opened a lot of interesting routes. It is also currently profit-making. The business of Aer Lingus has to be judged based on how it is doing itself - not how some dodgy American and continental european airlines have done.

1. Eircom was and continues to be a disaster for all investors except ESOT, who seem to be able to screw not matter who gets into bed with them.
2. Alfie Kane had a great BT career prior to Eircom , I don't know the current CEO of AL, but I wouldn't be too inspired by his readiness to facilitate SIPTU at the expense of other shareholders. The airline industry is full of dogs and few greyhounds. The latter are better for money.
3. Oh yeah! how about AL announcing more trading losses, more redundancies more this more that prior to an IPO. Are you for real? You reference 1 airline doing well, well sure America alone is full of airline cos that went bust! Sorry mate one swallow doesn't mean summer, and AL is no swallow. Why did Willie and the guys leave? Sure some scope but better fish to fry than AL. Good luck anyway.

jjbrien

Ok guys we all you your negitive opionions. If your not interested in buying Air Lingus shares please dont post you negitive comments in this post. I only want to hear from people who might be interested.

Bluehair

Sonnenblumen wrote:

Oh yeah! how about AL announcing more trading losses, more redundancies more this more that prior to an IPO.

Umm what trading losses and what redundancies? Profits have been increasing steadily for the last few years on the back of strong growth, expansion and a solid business plan.

Aer Lingus is currently one of the most profitable airlines in the world, a long way from the airline of a few years ago.

jjbrien

Bluehair wrote:

Umm what trading losses and what redundancies? Profits have been increasing steadily for the last few years on the back of strong growth, expansion and a solid business plan.

Aer Lingus is currently one of the most profitable airlines in the world, a long way from the airline of a few years ago.

Here Here Aer Lingus is profitable and will contiune to be profitable way into the future.

Sarsfield

Sonnenblumen wrote:

1. Eircom was and continues to be a disaster for all investors except ESOT, who seem to be able to screw not matter who gets into bed with them.

I made money out of my Eircom shares so it wasn't a disaster for me.

Airlines are highly cyclical businesses. I'd only hold airline shares as part of a highly diversified portfolio.

Sonnenblumen

Sarsfield wrote:

I made money out of my Eircom shares so it wasn't a disaster for me.

Airlines are highly cyclical businesses. I'd only hold airline shares as part of a highly diversified portfolio.

Hey Sarsfield congrats on making money on Eircom - most didn't, most were in for the long haul but well we all know what happened.

Where do you position/reckon AL are in the cycle?

I would expect a highly diversified portfolio to contain good players from wide ranging industry sectors - but all key players within their respective industries. AL IMO is not a key player but a minnow in a global business that is more than most sectors prone to sudden and dramatic downturns. Sounds like your startegy is hedging against poor AL sentiment rather than the sector.

Might be starting out on the wrong foot and pointing the gun at the other one.

Bluehair

You sublety ignored my challenge to your assertion about "AL announcing more trading losses, more redundancies more this more that prior to an IPO".

There is nothing wrong with investing in a minnow in a global business as you call it. Aer Lingus has already made dramatic changes in its' business plan over the last number of years and become a considerably more lean competitor than the vast majority of other airlines. Investing in the 'key-player' in an industry while it plays a role in a diversified portfolio also typically leaves little room for growth. I'd rather have money in AMD than Intel, Apple than Microsoft and Aer Lingus than Ryanair/BA.

For a variety of ,mainly political, reasons it's likely the airline will be launched underpriced. For anyone who cares to research the company the asset value of Aer Lingus is considerably more than what they're mooting as the launch point.

There isn't a single long-haul carrier with the cost-structure they have in place now and with a roughly 50% split between leased and owned aircraft plus a fuel hedge until next year they are nicely placed to ride out any potential downturn in what is a cyclical market.

They're even better placed to take advantage of an upturn and it's not at all unlikely in the medium term future they will be the subject of a takeover.

For anyone who bothers to delve further than the Sunday Papers they'll see that Aer Lingus is a good prospect for any portfolio.

Sonnenblumen

Bluehair - you're confusing size with value but potential is a different matter altogether. As you can gather I'm no AL fan, they've been a mediocre co for years and when a few good guys started to make changes they get shafted. They've left and I wish WW well. Meanwhile Siptu are the new strategic pilots at AL, and disagree hardly a major long haul carrier, that is stretching it.

But if all this is wrong, why has SIPTU hijacked discussions (here's the similarity with Eircom) and nothing goes ahead without their approval. On the otherhand if AL was really great, why does it need an IPO. It needs cash it cannot generate from current revenue streams. A company that cannot meet its own funding reqs is a bubble waiting to burst. Of course rapid expansion and aqcquisitions require rapoid funding but thats not the case here.

AL is little more than a few valuable Heathrow slots but probably a bunch of fat cats post ipo.

lomb

gauranteed to lose your shirt on them. employees have got way too generous a deal same as eircon.
the only people who win are
1 employees
2 management
3 underwriters

having said that a small gain may be possible on floatation simply because they will be priced to sell. oil price instability isnt a good thing even if it was a good company and an honest offer (which it isnt)

ronbyrne2005

no. why?higher cost base than ryanair,less competitive unions ,govenment 30% stake, oil prices, forecast slow down in world economy in 07/08,rising costs of capital.

RuggieBear

jjbrien wrote:

Ok guys we all you your negitive opionions. If your not interested in buying Air Lingus shares please dont post you negitive comments in this post. I only want to hear from people who might be interested.

tbh...:rolleyes:

Bluehair

Sonnenblumen wrote:

Bluehair - you're confusing size with value but potential is a different matter altogether.

Where from what i've written do you make that assumption? You still haven't backed up the "AL announcing more trading losses, more redundancies more this more that prior to an IPO" accusation.

Sonnenblumen wrote:

disagree hardly a major long haul carrier, that is stretching it.

I said "There isn't a single long-haul carrier with the cost-structure they have in place now". Nothing about being a major there at all. However that cost base enables a growth potential that long-haul competition into Dublin must face.

Sonnenblumen wrote:

But if all this is wrong, why has SIPTU hijacked discussions (here's the similarity with Eircom) and nothing goes ahead without their approval.

Interesting fact, at the most recent Siptu meeting against the IPO twelve staff showed up. The members have zero interest in the , primarily political, motiviations of Siptu. If events over the last few years (wholescale move of Cabin Crew to Impact, overwhelming support and oversubscription of reduncancy packages, overwhelming acceptance of new terms and conditions for the new business model etc. etc.) it shows that Siptu has lost popular support and direction.

Sonnenblumen wrote:

On the otherhand if AL was really great, why does it need an IPO. It needs cash it cannot generate from current revenue streams. A company that cannot meet its own funding reqs is a bubble waiting to burst.

Aer Lingus does not need cash at all and the 'bubble waiting to burst' metaphor undermines your whole arguement. The decision to sell is purely a political one.

Sonnenblumen wrote:

AL is little more than a few valuable Heathrow slots but probably a bunch of fat cats post ipo.

Actually the slots are the least valuable asset Aer Lingus owns due to complications with regard to their disposal due to BAA rulings. They do however own a substantial portion of the fleet not to mention a significant property portfolio on the airport itself (which is already the subject of hotel/shopping mall/metro station planning application).

For a variety of reasons Aer Lingus attracts a huge emotional response from many people when the discussion of its' sale comes up.

The facts however point to it being undersold at IPO with a significant upside going forward due to the underlying fundamentals.

jjbrien

Air Lingus does need cash to revive the transatlantic fleet. The current airbus fleet the A330's are showing their age. I have heard Air Lingus wants to replace them with the new 787 dreamliners as they will be the most fuel effitive aircraft withe the same capasity as their current transatalinc fleet. They also hope to expand the fleet when extra heavy aircraft gates are provided at Dublin.

Bluehair

jjbrien wrote:

Air Lingus does need cash to revive the transatlantic fleet. The current airbus fleet the A330's are showing their age.

Again more mis-information. While the cabins could possibly do with an update the fleet certainly does not require reviving, updating, renewing or changing.

The airbus fleet is amongst the most fuel efficient in the world and as of March 2006 the average age of the aircraft was only 4.4 years. Compare this to;

British Airways 9.7
Continental 8.5
Delta 13.1
United 11.7
Ryanair 2.3
Lufthansa 10.1
Virgin 6.1

The average air of the world airline fleet is 12.3 years.

What Aer Lingus would like is capital to expand the fleet not change it.

jjbrien

Bluehair wrote:

Again more mis-information. While the cabins could possibly do with an update the fleet certainly does not require reviving, updating, renewing or changing.

The airbus fleet is amongst the most fuel efficient in the world and as of March 2006 the average age of the aircraft was only 4.4 years. Compare this to;

British Airways 9.7
Continental 8.5
Delta 13.1
United 11.7
Ryanair 2.3
Lufthansa 10.1
Virgin 6.1

The average air of the world airline fleet is 12.3 years.

What Aer Lingus would like is capital to expand the fleet not change it.

I think your sadly wrong mate. The first 787 has not rolled of production yet so hence the technolgy used on the 787s is 15 years ahead of airbus. You are talking about the short haul flleet only. The current Airbus A330 fleet is much older than that. The first A330 was taken into service in 1994. The avarage age of the current transatlantiv fleet is 9.3 years. See this link for more info So by the time the flleet renewal takes place the avarage age would be 15 years as the current renewal scedule is to have the new aircraft phased in by 2011. i have read in the indo that aer ligus are seriously consdiering the 787's due to thier advanced technology. For more details visit http://www.boeing.com/commercial/787family/background.html

Bluehair

Without getting into an aerosexual debate on the merits of particular aircraft the simple fact is Aer Lingus has neither requirement nor desire to replace any of the fleet immediately (short or long-haul).

In fact they are adding to it with further 330s both this year and next and any speculation as to potential supplementation/replacement with A350/787s is some years away. As any business should they will consider all the available options.

The 330s have plenty of life in them and more importantly are paid for.

The arguement stands, on its' own merits Aer Lingus does not need this floatation but it is an opportunity for the wise investor.

ionapaul

I'm seriously thinking about investing, after making a very nice 10% from Eircom (as did most of my friends - maybe we were all fairly savvy but wasn't it common knowledge that Eircom was a quick-buck deal and not something to sink the family silver into for years? yet to meet any of these people who lost their shirts on Eircom). But again, just like Eircom, it would only be a quick-buck kinda thing - a 'spash and dash' as they say in Formula 1!

Bluehair

ionapaul wrote:

I'm seriously thinking about investing, after making a very nice 10% from Eircom (as did most of my friends - maybe we were all fairly savvy but wasn't it common knowledge that Eircom was a quick-buck deal and not something to sink the family silver into for years? yet to meet any of these people who lost their shirts on Eircom). But again, just like Eircom, it would only be a quick-buck kinda thing - a 'spash and dash' as they say in Formula 1!

Agreed, airline stocks are quite volatile in the long run but when opportunity presents itself...

Sonnenblumen

ionapaul wrote:

I'm seriously thinking about investing, after making a very nice 10% from Eircom (as did most of my friends - maybe we were all fairly savvy but wasn't it common knowledge that Eircom was a quick-buck deal and not something to sink the family silver into for years? yet to meet any of these people who lost their shirts on Eircom). But again, just like Eircom, it would only be a quick-buck kinda thing - a 'spash and dash' as they say in Formula 1!

Well Ionapaul,

Welcome back!

You're almost one in a million, and congratulations to (and your friends) for having the good fortune to make 10% ot of Eircom. Absolutely astonishing to think that after all this time you have still have yet to meet any of the 500,000 Eircom investment victims who lost money (and many continue to do so albeit via Vodafone). Well Jesus, how lucky can you get?

I hope the tide is with you when you dash with the cash! Jolly HO!

ionapaul

Maybe no-one can bear to admit their loss in my presence! Yet through the mists of time I am quite clear that the 'word on the street' at the time, among those of us who had invested before, that the easy money was in the speedy sale of the damn things! Maybe only in the part of Galway city I was based in in those less complicated times!

SouperComputer

is there a timescale for the AL IPO?

jjbrien

Bluehair wrote:

Without getting into an aerosexual debate on the merits of particular aircraft the simple fact is Aer Lingus has neither requirement nor desire to replace any of the fleet immediately (short or long-haul).

In fact they are adding to it with further 330s both this year and next and any speculation as to potential supplementation/replacement with A350/787s is some years away. As any business should they will consider all the available options.

The 330s have plenty of life in them and more importantly are paid for.

The arguement stands, on its' own merits Aer Lingus does not need this floatation but it is an opportunity for the wise investor.

You oviouly have not been watching the news latley or even know how the avation business works. The currennt airbus a330 fleet has started to cause problems for Aer Lingus. They have started breaking down and casuing emmergancy landingd left right and center. There was a big news story 2 months ago of an Aer Lingus A330 having to do an emmergancy landing in Labrador Canada during the very harsh and freezin winter. There has also been many cancelations due to techincal problems with the A330 aircraft. Its actually cheaper for EI in the long term to sell the current A330' and get new onces.

Bluehair

jjbrien wrote:

You oviouly have not been watching the news latley or even know how the avation business works.

Thanks but i keep in touch with the news and am keenly aware of how the industry works. Maintainance related delays do not equate to dumping a €100 million plus on a new plane. It's far from 'cheaper' to sell perfectly good aircraft and buy new ones. It's not uncommon for the majors to extract 14-20 years from their aircraft.

None-the-less it still stands that for those interested the fundamentals of the company point to it being an excellent investment, more likely short-term than long term.

I'll take it even Sonnenblumen has conceeded this point since he's now declined to back up any of his orginal rants.