Easy $25k?

FullOf..IT

Just got a poker cd by post for some online room ive never heard of.

I installed it to have a peep and this caught my eye...

"Noble Poker will pay a $25,000 (+ Progressive sum - if applicable) Jackpot Prize to the winner of six consecutive $20+$3 " Rio - Jackpot Sit 'N' Go" tournaments. Noble Poker will also award a $300 prize to a player who finished in either 1 st or 2 nd place in six consecutive -"Rio Jackpot Sit 'N' Go" tournaments."

Bear in mind these are 6 player max STT. I dont know the blinds but i checked a game and it went on for 40 mins so I wouldnt say that it is a speed game.

Is it worth using couple of hundred of BR for a crack at this?

Daithio

It sounds easy but it's actually incredibly tough. To win six in a row, considering all people are of the same playing ability, is 6x6x6x6x6x6 to 1. So that's 46656 to 1 if my calculations are right. Pretty tough. Even if you have a monster edge in sit and goes the odds won't be reduced hugely.

EDIT. Sorry, it's 5 to 1 each time, so it's 5x5x5x5x5x5 to 1. That's 15625 to 1.

Ollieboy

The best I've ever managed it 3 wins in a row and than a 2nd, so its tough going. I'm sure they've work out there sums and its not that easy to achieve....

But always worth a try.

ianmc38

My best run ever was when I first started playing poker and I won 4 $5 STTs in a row on Tribeca.

Daithio

I got 5 $100's in a row on pokerstars in Deauville, the stt king kpnuts was watching though so that probably helped!

Shortstack

Amaru will do it for you.

Drakar

Getting 6 placed (1st or 2nds) would be 243/1 which is more attainable I guess.

wayfarer

What you have to take into account is the fact that they're charging an extra $1 in rake per game over most other sites, so if you don't do it within 300 games, there's no advantage.

Drakar

There's also a bunch of these at different stakes btw: http://www.noblepoker.com/promo2.html

Samba

Just completed my 5th straight victory - 3 were 6 seater, 2 are 9 seater.

Mind you there was not trick or amazing play to go with it, the good hands just held up......

Norwich Fan Rob

ive often done 6 placed in a row on betfair 6 pacs £90/120.
won 4 in a row a few times on there, and once did 4 $200 9 seaters on stars in a row.
Never done 5 in a row anywhere, let alone 6.

You would need some very good running to do 6 in a row i think, but 6 placed 1st/2nd in some of the 6 runner fields u see out there is very doable.

connie147

Much on the same note,I was talking to steven hendry (snooker player) the other day and he told me hes playing a lot on line at the moment (on his sponsors site-Betfred),and hes targeting 6x6 seaters in a row for a £100,000 jackpot.Best he has done is 4 in a row and 2nd in 5th one. Its definately an attractive package.(I think the games are £50 sterling).

Drakar

Daithio wrote:

It sounds easy but it's actually incredibly tough. To win six in a row, considering all people are of the same playing ability, is 6x6x6x6x6x6 to 1. So that's 46656 to 1 if my calculations are right. Pretty tough. Even if you have a monster edge in sit and goes the odds won't be reduced hugely.

EDIT. Sorry, it's 5 to 1 each time, so it's 5x5x5x5x5x5 to 1. That's 15625 to 1.

Not a maths expert, but weren't you correct the first time? There are 6 places you can come in game 1, for each of those first results, there are another 6 results you could have in game 2. So after two games, there are 36 different results you could have. Only one of those is what you want, so its 1 in 36, not 1 in 25 as might be suggested above?

MrPillowTalk

Shortstack wrote:

Amaru will do it for you.

Damn you got there first

FullOf..IT

Shortstack wrote:

Amaru will do it for you.

who?

Gholimoli

ive won 4 $100 on PPP 9 seater in a row and i have won 5 6 seater $50 on PPP as well.the amount of luck i enjoyed was unreal in some of these and i would say to win 6 in a row is near impossible if not impossible.

Daithio

Drakar wrote:

Not a maths expert, but weren't you correct the first time? There are 6 places you can come in game 1, for each of those first results, there are another 6 results you could have in game 2. So after two games, there are 36 different results you could have. Only one of those is what you want, so its 1 in 36, not 1 in 25 as might be suggested above?

6 to 1 is for 7 entrants, 5 to 1 is for 6.

spectre

The probability of wining one is 1/6 (odds of 5/1). six independent events in a row is 1/(6*6*6*6*6*6). i.e odds of [(6*6*6*6*6*6)-1]/1 = 46655/1

Daithio

Yeah that's what I thought originally but I was corrected by somebody who normally knows more about these things than me.

Rnger

The real question is... how many players would you need to ensure you win this and not get caught colluding?

padraig_f

Daithio wrote:

Yeah that's what I thought originally but I was corrected by somebody who normally knows less about these things than me.

FYP

Ste05

FullOf..IT wrote:

who?

A guy who used to Post here, have a look at this thread to see why he's mentioned: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054855820

breadmonkey

Why doesn't he post here anymore?

5starpool

It is one chance in 6, or 5/1 in betting odds terms.

For calculating the chances of 2 events at 5/2 occurring (for illustration) it is worked out as follows:

( ( (5+2) * (5+2) ) / ( (2*2) ) ) = 49/4

so for this challenge this works out at

( ( (5+1) * (5+1) * (5+1) * (5+1) * (5+1) * (5+1) ) / ( (1*1*1*1*1*1) ) ) = 46656/1

That would be the payout if you had on accumulator on those 6 events each priced at 5/1.

Everyone was sorta right in a way, just some more right than others.

Ste05

breadmonkey wrote:

Why doesn't he post here anymore?

basically the beginning of the end was this thread: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054874181

a-k-47

lol rnger im sure it can be done

Hectorjelly

Ste05 wrote:

basically the beginning of the end was this thread: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054874181

That was a good thread! I wrote a long reply discussing the block theory but forgot to post it for some reason.

spectre

For calculating the chances of 2 events at 5/2 occurring (for illustration) it is worked out as follows:

( ( (5+2) * (5+2) ) / ( (2*2) ) ) = 49/4

Can you explain this calculation please.

To my mind, if I bet 4 on a double of 5/2 and 5/2
The first result yields 14,
Then 14 @ 5/2 yields 49
Therefore you have turned 4 into 49. To me, this is odds of 45/4 on your initial 4

Ste05

Hectorjelly wrote:

That was a good thread! I wrote a long reply discussing the block theory but forgot to post it for some reason.

Fancy re-writing it?? I've been experimenting with a watered down version of Gigabet's theories with various levels of success, and I'd love to discuss his whole Block theory. I can see how it could prove to be extremely profitable, even if experiencing slightly above normal variance levels..

RoundTower

spectre wrote:

Can you explain this calculation please.

To my mind, if I bet 4 on a double of 5/2 and 5/2
The first result yields 14,
Then 14 @ 5/2 yields 49
Therefore you have turned 4 into 49. To me, this is odds of 45/4 on your initial 4

Yes you have it right, that is what 5star meant really.

You can't multiply odds like this. You have to make them into fractions (so 5-2 becomes 2/7) and then multiply, and then convert back if you need to.

ArmaniJeanss

I think theres a psychological issue to overcome as well as the inherent difficulty of winning 6 in a row.
When I won 3 in a row $10 STTs in Jan (there was a 5-in-a-row bonus on VC then) I approached the 4th very differently to a normal STT. Instead of gradually putting myself in a winning position I forced it much too early - I also focussed too much on a guy who tripled up early.
My 'bubble' was effectively 2nd place, whereas everyone elses was the usual 4th. I made an absolute mess of the game.

Difficult challenge, kudos to anyone who does it.

eirebhoy

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

I think theres a psychological issue to overcome as well as the inherent difficulty of winning 6 in a row.
When I won 3 in a row $10 STTs in Jan (there was a 5-in-a-row bonus on VC then) I approached the 4th very differently to a normal STT. Instead of gradually putting myself in a winning position I forced it much too early - I also focussed too much on a guy who tripled up early.
My 'bubble' was effectively 2nd place, whereas everyone elses was the usual 4th. I made an absolute mess of the game.

Difficult challenge, kudos to anyone who does it.

Take a break after each win then.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

ignore previous comment - this is what matters...

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

5starpool wrote:

It is one chance in 6, or 5/1 in betting odds terms.

For calculating the chances of 2 events at 5/2 occurring (for illustration) it is worked out as follows:

( ( (5+2) * (5+2) ) / ( (2*2) ) ) = 49/4

so for this challenge this works out at

( ( (5+1) * (5+1) * (5+1) * (5+1) * (5+1) * (5+1) ) / ( (1*1*1*1*1*1) ) ) = 46656/1

That would be the payout if you had on accumulator on those 6 events each priced at 5/1.

Everyone was sorta right in a way, just some more right than others.

i meant this...

RoundTower

don't you mean 1 in 46656?

Samba

Well - I was on the virge of 6 yesterday, all at $50-$100 Levels.

It is impossible and the poker gods simply will not allow it!

Long story short, two of were joing CL's with 5 left, He raises, I push with KK he calls with KJ soooted..

To be honest as i said above, there was no great skill involved, alot of donkeys simply paid me off, one thing which was of great help was having a huge CL ratio when down to the last 3 each time, this ensured that i could excercise some controlled aggresssion to consistently steal pots with little contention.

I think this could be done, however if you get the idea that you have to win when playing poker, it can seriously affect your game....

I.e you won't call a bluff where normally you would.

MrPillowTalk

Samba wrote:

Well - I was on the virge of 6 yesterday, all at $50-$100 Levels.

It is impossible and the poker gods simply will not allow it!

Long story short, two of were joing CL's with 5 left, He raises, I push with KK he calls with KJ soooted..

To be honest as i said above, there was no great skill involved, alot of donkeys simply paid me off, one thing which was of great help was having a huge CL ratio when down to the last 3 each time, this ensured that i could excercise some controlled aggresssion to consistently steal pots with little contention.

I think this could be done, however if you get the idea that you have to win when playing poker, it can seriously affect your game....

I.e you won't call a bluff where normally you would.

Fair dues 5 in row is bloody tough.

So does Amaru post anymore or has he retired from public life?

The C Kid

ZeeJustin could do this.

Also, I don't want to make any wild accusations but the timing of Amaru's disappearance and Gigabet going busto were very close together. He also got very upset by the Hectorjelly is Gigabet joke. Perhaps???:D

Iago

I am Amaru...and so's my wife!

Norwich Fan Rob

i reckon amaru probably does still post here under another name

cardshark202

amaru is gholimoli!

Iago

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

i reckon amaru probably does still post here under another name

It was you wasn't it???

It wouldn't be a bad thing, although he would be better off posting under the original name and maybe mending some bridges. It's not so much that he was wrong or right, but the arrogance was shocking...unlike me your friendly modest poker god.

Iago

cardshark202 wrote:

amaru is gholimoli!

Witch Hunt!!!

any users that hadn't posted before Amaru dissappeared are guilty until proven innocent!

The C Kid

I thought Amaru was quite an interesting and amusing poster.

I think a "Bring Back Amaru" campaign should be started.

MrPillowTalk

that prop bet thread was my favourite all time boards thread

Ste05

Iago wrote:

Witch Hunt!!!

any users that hadn't posted before Amaru dissappeared are guilty until proven innocent!

Agreed

The C Kid wrote:

I think a "Bring Back Amaru" campaign should be started.

I'll jump on board this campaign. I'd say he still lurks at least.

Norwich Fan Rob

im confident he still posts under a new name, im sure Tom could suss it out although i guess amaru has the right to be anomyous.

hotspur

I thought Hectorjelly had him shot and dumped in a grave marked Gigabet, the epitaph read "BUSTO"!

Hectorjelly

hotspur wrote:

I thought Hectorjelly had him shot and dumped in a grave marked Gigabet, the epitaph read "BUSTO"!

Whilst this may be true I think it was qualifies as gosssip and I want this thread killed and put in an unmarked grave

Goodluck2me

just out of curiosuity whats to stop 6 boardies doing this 6 times an dsplitting the proceeds?are there rules re: this?>

ArmaniJeanss

goodluck2me wrote:

just out of curiosuity whats to stop 6 boardies doing this 6 times an dsplitting the proceeds?are there rules re: this?>

One of the rules is that you can't beat the same 5 players (or ISP addresses)in each game, so you'd have to use different usernames. It would be suspicious that the winner was continually beating newly registered players. Any claim will be scrutinised big-time for collusive playing. But if the players were extremely clever and strategised it properly, then they could probably do it convincingly enough.
I'm sure some gang-of-6 will try it.
Its unethical though, and immoral, and will lead to a lifetime of bad beats.