Moving up in the world

Amaru · 28-11-2005 9:11pm #1

Originally this was meant to be my first brag post, because will be my first clear winning month since i started taking poker seriously almost a year ago. However, this success have made reflect a bit. I started this month with a meagre deposit of 20 euro from my near maxed out credit card, and after some unexpected success playing 5c/10c omaha, my bankroll was enough to sit me in $5 hold em sit n gos, the place i originally called home. However, whereas i used to struggle with these, apparently my reading and studying had paid off, and i was now crushing them, cashing in all but 1 of my first 15 played, and taking 1st in all but 2. I then moved up to the $10 stt's, and its the same thing. I've taken 1st in 7 of my last 8 tournaments. I'm not getting lucky, there hasn't been any bad beats, the competition is just bad. Once you've mastered the basic tenets of tournament play, its very easy to win at this level. I'm now considering moving up to the $15's.

Now while all this might still seem a little like bragging(and it is), there's a serious question to all this. If my bankroll can sustain me, should i keep moving up if i'm winning consistently? If you're better than the competition at a certain level, is it unprofitable to continue playing at that level if you can beat a higher stake consistently? I know certain people will say not to move up too quickly, and its generally good advice, but does it apply here? What if the person is playing below their potential?

roryc · 28-11-2005 9:20pm

Play at whatever level you feel comfortable at. If you are winning at $15 and can afford to lose a few games, then keep playing at that level.

By the way I'll say hard luck now for the horrible bad beats that surely must be on their way to you!

You can't stay on a good run THAT long!

lol,gl

hotspur · 28-11-2005 10:05pm

Amaru wrote:

If my bankroll can sustain me, should i keep moving up if i'm winning consistently? If you're better than the competition at a certain level, is it unprofitable to continue playing at that level if you can beat a higher stake consistently? I know certain people will say not to move up too quickly, and its generally good advice, but does it apply here? What if the person is playing below their potential?

This is actually an excellent question. I've always found it bizarre that poker players giving advice on bankroll management often neglect the crucial poker concept of their chance of actually winning. Think of it in terms of pot odds - "metapot odds". There is a caveat to this - you have to be able to "rebuy", that is refund your bankroll if you lose. This is the case at least somewhat for most people who don't play poker fulltime for a living. Not too sure about maxed out credit card players though

If you are a player who has previously consistently beaten, say, 2/4 NL and you're starting from scratch again with a $600 buy in to a site, then strict bankroll 10% theory suggests that you should never have more than $60 in play at any time. But if you're a multitabler this means playing 10/25c cash games that are waaaay below your skill level, is not going to build you up much anytime soon, and will bore the living hell out of you because you won't care about the tiny pots.

Now it may be that the chances of you beating the 50c/$1 are the same as the chances of you beating the 10/25c game because you are just much better than both sets of players. So I would recommend multitabling at 50c/$1 and playing solidly at 2-3 tables for such a player. This is having up to 50% of the bankroll in play, but you're probably going to win. If a dog comes up to you in the street and asks you to play poker and you have €300 in your wallet, how much are you gonna play for? Why?

Playing a game you know you can beat with a roll of several buy ins is a legitimate if risky strategy. You have to be willing to play solidly, you can't be Captain Tilt (tm), and you have to not get unlucky when it matters many times in a row.

Course this is advice for cash players but it applies to sit n go players too, but I'd be somewhat more conservative because get unlucky once and you've lost your buy in; also the hands being played at those levels of sit n goes are ripe for being hammered. On a more personal note if you have ever had trouble beating a $5 sit n go, then I'd be wary of deciding to fly up through the levels, one can only really properly judge one's own level in retrospect. That is you will know that you are good enough for $15 sit n goes only when you have played a whole lot of them, certainly not by guesstimating based on your performance over a mere 8 $10 sit n goes.

Imposter · 28-11-2005 10:22pm

hotspur wrote:

This is actually an excellent question. I've always found it bizarre that poker players giving advice on bankroll management often neglect the crucial poker concept of their chance of actually winning.

I agree with this in that any BR management strategy must include the qualifier "if and only if you are a winning player at that level". What if you don't know if you're a winning player or not? I'd suggest allowing yourself a decent shot at the level. Say your BR needs 20 buy-ins for you to move to a level, allow yourself 5 buy-ins. If you lose that then drop bank down and build it up again before another shot at the next level. If you find you've played a reasonable number of games and you're not up or down a lot then release your whole BR to that level.

...then strict bankroll 10% theory suggests that you should never have more than $60 in play at any time...

I'd have a different opinion on that. I thought the % (depending on the type of game it is usually different) was per table, although if you start tilting you need to have the discipline to get out.

Amaru, congrats on the good run, but unless it's over a serious enough amount of games at each level (50 minimum but 100+ to be more accurate), you ain't sure you're beating it. You could try risking a % of your BR that you are ok with losing at a higher limit but drop back as soon as you lose that. A dynamic strategy like this works well for players who aren't overly concerned with how much they win but do want to keep their BR relatively intact while playing as high as possible.

Don't mind Rory, he's just bitter

Amaru · 28-11-2005 10:28pm

hotspur wrote:

Course this is advice for cash players but it applies to sit n go players too, but I'd be somewhat more conservative because get unlucky once and you've lost your buy in; also the hands being played at those levels of sit n goes are ripe for being hammered. On a more personal note if you have ever had trouble beating a $5 sit n go, then I'd be wary of deciding to fly up through the levels, one can only really properly judge one's own level in retrospect. That is you will know that you are good enough for $15 sit n goes only when you have played a whole lot of them, certainly not by guesstimating based on your performance over a mere 8 $10 sit n goes.

You've got some things wrong here i feel. I'm maintaining a bank roll of 15 buy ins for the $15 level, meaning several bad beats will not destory my bankroll. There's also the fact that i'm working now, meaning its easier to reload, and that i have no problem dropping down if its too much.

As far as being wary about not previously being able to beat the $5 sng's, i'm not sure how you can feel that somebody can just jump right into poker and expect to beat the $5 straight away. You have to learn starting values, pot odds, big stack play, blind defense, bubble play and any other number of other tournament skills. The main reason the players are so bad at these stakes is because most players don't know these things.

Lastly, your final point is exactly my point. Without an accurate sample size, how can one be sure that they're ready to move up? If i am indeed better than this level, then its unprofitable for me to play 500 stt's to figure out that i am. I don't think anybody can win, not just finish in the money, but win 8 in a row and be considered "lucky". Like i said, there's no bad beats or huge outdraws involved, i'm not getting Aces every 5th hand, i'm just plain playing better than the other players. In fact, i usually have an average stack at the bubble, and its then when i shift gears and take it down.

P.S about the credit card, like i said i'm a working man now, so i'm now officially debt free!

ArmaniJeanss · 28-11-2005 11:56pm

Amaru,
Are those figures Tribeca/Paddypower? There was some promotion a while back of 'win 5 nineseat SNGs in a row at minimum $5 level, win $2500 bonus'.
Not sure if that promotion is ongoing or not ???????

Amaru · 29-11-2005 12:14am

I haven't heard anything about that, but i'm going to look into it. I don't play exclusively 9 seaters though.

I thought that was on another network though???

EDIT: No, you were right, but apparently the skin i'm playing on it expired "a couple of months ago" according to the manager on live chat. On PPP it only started on September 1st though, so might be worth registering an account for it though.

Ste05 · 29-11-2005 12:56am

Amaru wrote:

I don't think anybody can win, not just finish in the money, but win 8 in a row and be considered "lucky".

i'm just plain playing better than the other players. In fact, i usually have an average stack at the bubble, and its then when i shift gears and take it down.

Not to out a dampner on things here, but the above is all just variance, some people might call it luck, but the truth of the matter is you're just going through a patch of good variance. This will even itself out in the long term, it doesn't matter how much better you are than these players, the loosest fish can still be dealt Aces when you're dealt AKs or KK, it's just Poker......

Where BR management comes into play is to have the discipline to stay with in what ever parameters you set yourself and stick to it. Once you're sticking to the below......

Amaru wrote:

I'm maintaining a bank roll of 15 buy ins for the $15 level

.....then you're doing fine, ride this good variance and move up as soon as your BR will allow, but to jump up levels pre-maturely can undo all this good variance and good play with a couple of bad beats/ bad plays/ bad reads (to name but a few...)..... could wipe all this out in a couple of nights, you've had a good week/ month, but, mark my words, there will be bad weeks/ months etc. What you need to be able to add to your arsenal is the discipline to stay within your BR, 2 or 3 bad beats in higher buy-in STT's and your BR takes a disproportional dent, and all the good work you had put in over the previous period will not show the rewards it should.

If you have 15 Buy-In's for a level and that is a level you're happy with, then stick to it, if (and when) you make 15 Buy-In's for the next level, move up, but (and here is where the discipline comes into play:mad: ), if you drop down to 15 Buy-In's for a lower level you should drop back down

..... it's difficult to do and can mean a slight ego dent (but aprt from yourself, who needs to know:rolleyes: ), and not many people can do this (myself included) but I think it's one of the most important facets to a Winning Players profile.... It's the very same discipline that is needed as is all the below, however a skill far less revered amongst Poker players.....

Amaru wrote:

You have to learn starting values, pot odds, big stack play, blind defense, bubble play and any other number of other tournament skills.

Just my 0.2c, do with it what you like...... :cool:

Doc Farrell · 29-11-2005 1:02am

this is 100% rock solid advice.
n1 ste0!

ciaran13 · 29-11-2005 1:03am

theres more than adequate info on bankrolls there
but id jus like to make one small point, u sed itd be easier to refill no cos ur workin
i wud strongly reccomend keeping poker money and wages seperate
thats all
o and get ready for the bad beats im gettin so many, i feel like im playing at Purgatory.com!!

Ste05 · 29-11-2005 1:06am

Doc Farrell wrote:

this is 100% rock solid advice.
n1 ste0!

Thought it was needed Doc, alot tonight linked to Br type discipline, and one of my pet peeves..... I wanted to reply to that article posted the other day, which I thought was good, but have just been too busy with work lately, so wanted to get my point in, and thought this was as good as any...

Now to just follow my own advice..

Ste05 · 29-11-2005 1:10am

ciaran13 wrote:

but id jus like to make one small point, u sed itd be easier to refill no cos ur workin
i wud strongly reccomend keeping poker money and wages seperate
thats all

Not necessarily.... As the other days Article talked about, if you play for pleasure, just don't go out to the pub one night, (there's €100 straight away....)

Doc Farrell · 29-11-2005 1:15am

lol, true, its a lot easier to give advice then follow it, especially when ur head is full of steam. I lost a 15 dollar stt last night, moved up to 25, lost 2, moved up to 50, lost in the first hand (way ahead btw) and fortunately I had no money left in the account or I woulda went to a hundred one.

today I got it all back in one 25 stt.

and it all started coz i got shafted on that bleedin 30 euro freezeout! :mad:

well, gl over the festive seaon, there's gonna be some plum turkeys out there!

Amaru · 29-11-2005 1:21am

It is excellent advice Ste, and i've considered most of these things before i posted.

Yes it is partly variance, because my ROI is far higher than what is expected at any one level, but thats also the basis of my question. Its hard to tell if its good variance or just good play. For my money, i feel like i'm just plain outplaying people at this level. I can easily put them on a hand range because the play at this level becomes very pattern based after a while, and i've been able to raise fold and call accordingly. Most hands i'm not even having to show down anymore. I feel this is something that isn't about variance, but much more to do with skill. This is why i feel playing a large number of lower level buy ins is pointless, if i feel i'm ready for a slightly higher stake and i have the bankroll to play it.

Dropping down isn't an issue either, because i had to grind it out at the $1 and $2 tables off that $20 to get my bankroll right for a 5 dollar. Now that was soul destroying! So much work for so little money! As far as keeping my wages and bankroll seperate, why is this an issue? Many amateur(and professional) players do this, and as somebody who has pretty much no overheads, why would this be a problem? Other than that, as previously stated, this scenario is only for moving IF my bankroll is big enough.

Lastly, why do people think i'm not taking bad beats?!!

I've taken some horrible ones over the last 4 weeks, usually where i'm trapping or i've caught somebody stealing, but i've been able to play my way back into every single one. This is another reason why i'm not entirely convinced i'm "running good" per se. I haven't had particularly good cards and i've taken several severe beats. I will say this though, my heads up play is sketchy, so maybe so many 1st's is lucky, but i'd still be finishing in the money regardless of whether i was winning or losing these.

Ste05 · 29-11-2005 1:33am

Amaru wrote:

if i feel i'm ready for a slightly higher stake and i have the bankroll to play it.

Maybe I didn't say it right, but, what I was saying is that if you feel you are good enough to move up, AND you have the BR to move up, then go ahead, this is where the discipline to move back down if it goes badly for a while comes into play.

You may not know whether you can consistently beat $10 STT's over 1,000,000 games, but who cares (see below for caveat), once you play within your BR, then work away.

Now for the Major Caveat ..... As you move up, you need to also increase the number of Buy-In's you have for that level, (this is where the knowledge that you can consistently beat a game comes into play... but just to be safe, this should be done, just to compensate for lack of information...) I could go on for another hour on this topic, but I have to concentrate on a game ATM, I might write more tomorrow night.....
(oooohhh the excitement.....

)

Amaru · 29-11-2005 1:41am

15 would probably be my last move up for a long time, because i feel this is where there's a jump in talent. At the 20's and 25's, there's a lot more real players, and a lot more advanced play, whereas i feel at anything up to that is just generally fish who like to gamble(common on tribeca), or people like me learning the game and trying to move up, but who don't have their BR in order yet. I'd be playing a high number of 15's before i'd consider moving up to anything higher, and if that doesn't work out, its back down to the 10's.

Really, this thread is more theoretical/hypothetical than anything else. I'm actually very careful with my bankroll, and i'm very wary of moving up limits. This question just proved to be a real puzzler to me, and i feel its fertile ground for discussion.

roryc · 29-11-2005 2:06am

Imposter wrote:

Don't mind Rory, he's just bitter

Hell yeh. Like a lemon

Hectorjelly · 29-11-2005 4:31am

Amaru wrote:

I've taken 1st in 7 of my last 8 tournaments. I'm not getting lucky, there hasn't been any bad beats, the competition is just bad. Once you've mastered the basic tenets of tournament play, its very easy to win at this level. I'm now considering moving up to the $15's.

People often post results on boards that I find very hard to believe, but I usually dont say anything as I dont like to call someones honesty into question. But is this really true? Winning 3 in a row is a MAJOR achievement (which requires a huge amount of luck), winning 4 in a row is almost unheard of. To do both of these consecutively is incredible. I played thousands of stts this year at what I feel was a extremely high level and I never came close to anything like this.

Amaru · 29-11-2005 12:13pm

No it is actually true. There is luck involved, but tribeca's aggressive blind structure favours people who know how to play on the bubble. If you know which 2 cards to steal with, you can double or triple your stack in 2 or 3 hands just by stealing the blinds. The luck factor comes in when you don't run into a real hand, as even a 3BB raise often represents a large portion of your stack. After that, people generally just let themselves get blinded away until they're not even a factor.

Also hector, any opinions on the topic at hand?

Culchie · 29-11-2005 12:27pm

If you win 7 in a row on Noble Poker, you would have won $1 million.

I think on Tribeca if you win 5 in a row, you win a nice prize ($10,000 ?), I think even 3 in a row you get $250.

PPP Pitboss can confirm.

MrPillowTalk · 29-11-2005 12:31pm

Amaru wrote:

I don't think anybody can win, not just finish in the money, but win 8 in a row and be considered "lucky".
!

Hector was diplomatic, 8 in a row at any level is absolute horse excrement. In all fairness it amazes me how most poker players exagerate there wins and explain away any losses.

I only play online cash games these days, reason why is that the variance is less than when playing stt's ( allthough i know players who have very good strike rates at stts ). Point is anyone who has played online at all seriously will have to laugh at this 8 in a row claim.

No offence amaru just think your exagerating

Iago · 29-11-2005 1:22pm

Your sample size is too small, it doesn't matter if you feel you're putting them on the right hand or not it's far too small an amount of games to be relevant.

Is it possible that you are far better than players at this level? Of course it is, it may even be probable rather than possible, but that doesn't escape the fact that what you're experiencing at the moment is a run of good variance.

I play the $25 STTs and I have beaten them consistently over the last 6 months, however this month I'm down $500 (18 Buyins) at this level, does this mean I've suddenly become a bad player? Am I playing above my ability and skill level? Or am I just experiencing a combination of bad luck, variance and some bad play on my part? If it is a combination of bad variance and luck then what's to say it won't happen to you? Reloading isn't an option, you should always aim to not have to reload your account. If you employ good BRM and you can beat a level then you should never have to reload.

I know I'll come out of this run and turn it around again, but if I didn't employ good BR techniques then I would be in a world of trouble. If you just want to play for a laugh and you don't mind spending X per week then take X divide it by 5 and play 5 games at the level for the challenge/dare/fun whatever.

If you want to make money or look for a secondary income then make sure you've a minimum of 25-30 buyins at whatever level you want to play it. Play a minimum of 500 games at each level to be sure you're beating the game and not just surfing the variance and move up the levels slowly. Everybody gets lucky in short bursts and as good a player as you might be, that kind of run in succession has a huge element of luck involved, which will turn at some point.

NickyOD · 29-11-2005 1:40pm

Hectorjelly wrote:

People often post results on boards that I find very hard to believe, but I usually dont say anything as I dont like to call someones honesty into question. But is this really true? Winning 3 in a row is a MAJOR achievement (which requires a huge amount of luck), winning 4 in a row is almost unheard of. To do both of these consecutively is incredible. I played thousands of stts this year at what I feel was a extremely high level and I never came close to anything like this.

I agree. 7 or 8 ITMs in a row is probably the best I've achieved but as far as wins in a row I think I've won 3 in a row a couple of times in the last 3 months and that's it, over my last 600 STTs that I have a record of, but I've probably played over 2000 STTs in my career and I've certainly never won more than 5 in a row and I have probably one of the highest ratings of any player in the $50 STTs on the Party network.

Amaru · 29-11-2005 1:57pm

If you're used to playing Party, and come over to Tribeca, you'd be surprised by the gap in talent. That, and the drastically different tournament structures make a huge difference.

That said, i am willing to put my money where my mouth is, and make a prop bet with anybody that i can win the 5 in a row on PPP. My skin doesn't honour it, and i haven't been playing exclusively 9 seaters. I do feel confident I can repeat this feat though.

Hectorjelly · 29-11-2005 2:00pm

Amaru wrote:

No it is actually true. There is luck involved, but tribeca's aggressive blind structure favours people who know how to play on the bubble. If you know which 2 cards to steal with, you can double or triple your stack in 2 or 3 hands just by stealing the blinds. The luck factor comes in when you don't run into a real hand, as even a 3BB raise often represents a large portion of your stack. After that, people generally just let themselves get blinded away until they're not even a factor.

Also hector, any opinions on the topic at hand?

I think you should definitely move up as your bankroll allows you to, it sound like you could beat $25's/50's; however a word of caution. You are running reallly hot at the moment and it wont always be like that, thats not to say you arent playing well but no matter how good you are you will have some losing streaks.

RoundTower · 29-11-2005 2:02pm

Amaru wrote:

If you're used to playing Party, and come over to Tribeca, you'd be surprised by the gap in talent. That, and the drastically different tournament structures make a huge difference.

That said, i am willing to put my money where my mouth is, and make a prop bet with anybody that i can win the 5 in a row on PPP. My skin doesn't honour it, and i haven't been playing exclusively 9 seaters. I do feel confident I can repeat this feat though.

OK. I'll give you 5-1 for €500 you can't win 5 9 seater sit and goes in a row at any level on PPP. You have to find some way of proving it and agree it with me before you take the bet. You don't even have to win the next 5 in a row, I'll give you a few weeks to do it.

Deal?

kincsem · 29-11-2005 2:09pm

In a session I cashed in the first seven $5 Sit & Gos on PokerStars (in first four) but then followed with about 30 out of the cash.

To win eight 9-player Sit & Gos is only odds of 16,777,215/1, easily achievable imho (someone please check my maths).
Far more difficult would be to win eight 18 player Sit & Gos. Odds are 6,975,757,440/1. :eek:
Of course having a big skill advantage would reduce these odds considerably but even at 50/50 to win each one, it is 255/1.

What I can't figure is how did I cash in seven in a row. Odds of a cash are 4/14 for an 18 player tourney so 3.5/1 seven times is 6,433/1. Obviously the players do not play randomly. There must be a skill element.

Or am I mathematically on tilt.

Amaru · 29-11-2005 2:14pm

RoundTower wrote:

OK. I'll give you 5-1 for €500 you can't win 5 9 seater sit and goes in a row at any level on PPP. You have to find some way of proving it and agree it with me before you take the bet. You don't even have to win the next 5 in a row, I'll give you a few weeks to do it.

Deal?

I'll take the 5-1, but 500 is just too big. Thats not even my bankroll right now. I was thinking of capping it at 50. Either PPP Pit Boss or KarlH will be able to verify the result, but i need to find out more about the conditions of the promotion from either before i'll agree to it. I have to figure out a reasonable time constraint too, but i'm thinking Dec 31st. There may be more difficulty involved in winning 5 9 seaters in a row, but i'm more than willing to find out if the odds are right.

Culchie · 29-11-2005 2:20pm

Amaru wrote:

I'll take the 5-1, but 500 is just too big. Thats not even my bankroll right now. I was thinking of capping it at 50. Either PPP Pit Boss or KarlH will be able to verify the result, but i need to find out more about the conditions of the promotion from either before i'll agree to it. I have to figure out a reasonable time constraint too, but i'm thinking Dec 31st. There may be more difficulty involved in winning 5 9 seaters in a row, but i'm more than willing to find out if the odds are right.

I'll put up 150 for you, no risk to your bankroll at all, just so the pressure is off....PPP Pitboss to be the referee.

roryc · 29-11-2005 2:23pm

I read something before that only one person has ever won over 7 in a row.... so that would make you a world record holder? By the way I dont think there is any need for a competition. If he IS being truthful

then surely he could just ask for the Hand Histories from his skin? If not maybe put your money where your mouth is and bet your Bankroll. He's only asking you to win 5 in a row. Should be easy for you Superman

Culchie · 29-11-2005 2:25pm

Oh No, Rory has a blog ! ... is it safe to read;)

Moving up in the world

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