sweet dreams are made of these who are we to disagree travel the world and the seven

SpitfireIV

Anything on the cards for the next couple of weeks or so guys? Or will the 'coldest winter on record' (or so thats what the news said we would get ) turn out to be just another ol' Irish winter?

Think I might try the downhill grass skiing again due to a lack of snow





CroppyBoy

ninebeanrows

Yea the models are finding it very difficult to deal with this
high pressure situation.

If we lived in London it might of been of more siginifigance but it bears
little here.

interesting to note though that the 12z was the mildest outcome for these parts at circa +70hrs

Supercell

The news never said it would be the coldest winter on record, just that its more likely to be colder than recent years.

Thats what actually has happened, some would claim more statistical chance than anything else..ie we are overdue a cold winter. If you go by sunspots etc..then next winter and the year after the ones to look forward to.

Personally..am inclined to lean a little towards sun cycles and interdecadal oceanic cycles and can accept that we are due proper cold.., however imho..this winter is already a "pretty cold" one..even though temperature are close to the norm..that in itself is the new cold (imho).

Know this drives some people crazy to read..but week after week, month after month of above average tems..and even when temps approach "normal"..its short lived and therefore a new "snap" imho, "average" (1961-1990) is the new cold.

If a '47 or '63 synoptic happened we would have a proper cold spell..thats just more unlikely than ever..and with every passing year its severity will decrease.

Unless we get a real cold snap in the next few years than its probaly curtains to events such as week long snow lying events at sea levals in the Republic.

Keep an eye on http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png , see how much the median value (white line) is above the red line (30 year average), ignore the values from halfway accross the charts as they are tbh nothing but almost random noise..in the reliable range..even with a cold snap ahead..notice how before and afterwards the temps return to a value a couple of degrees above the (red line) average.

Check this out any day, any month and its the same ..

Gonzo

I think this winter is more or less over as far as snow is concerned, sure we may get a cold day or two yet with maybe a wintry shower but i think we may as well start hoping for something maybe next winter instead.

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote:

I think this winter is more or less over as far as snow is concerned, sure we may get a cold day or two yet with maybe a wintry shower but i think we may as well start hoping for something maybe next winter instead.

No dont be stupid!

We have about 50 days where we can have lying snow for days so get
a grip! Be positive for a change:D

February is always the snowiest month of the winter.

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

No dont be stupid!

We have about 50 days where we can have lying snow for days so get
a grip! Be positive for a change:D

February is always the snowiest month of the winter.

Bit optimistic there Weathercheck with the 50!! , but it's coming into snow prime time and as usual the ensembles are promising a winter wonderland..lets hope this is the year!!come on the the greeny high!!, thats what us Irish really need for proper cold.

Mothman

Longfield wrote:

Bit optimistic there Weathercheck with the 50!!

Not at all, that's only mid March. Sure it was record high temps on Paddy's day last year, but my record low temp occured in March, April often gives some cold wintery days. Sea temps are at their lowest in early March and will be as cold in April as they are now.
Granted that cold spells from mid march onwards are usually short and so are better called cold snaps than spells, but all in all, plenty of time yet.

Supercell

Mothman wrote:

Not at all, that's only mid March. Sure it was record high temps on Paddy's day last year, but my record low temp occured in March, April often gives some cold wintery days. Sea temps are at their lowest in early March and will be as cold in April as they are now.
Granted that cold spells from mid march onwards are usually short and so are better called cold snaps than spells, but all in all, plenty of time yet.

I do agree regarding wintery showers Mothman ..but as to a few days nice wintery landscape that doesnt melt by midday..march and april really are unlikely.

I feel if we do get a proper cold snap..it wont be the same degree of cold as previous years..but will give far greater amounts of snow.

Bah, snow in ireland in 20 years will be a fantisy..even for those on the mountains.

lucernarian

The "upgrading" trend is continued in the new run and for Friday night we might see some frost in the east and southeast even with some cloud cover. A very isolated shower or 2 can't be ruled out on Friday night but in all likelyhood the two wintry showers would probably be over Lugnaquilla and Mt. Leinster.

I wonder how the models will progress our HP? I can't see if it is more likely to move one way or another.

We have some sort of a chance of wintry weather before Paddy's Day. The 2 main snow events for me over the last 6 years both happened in late February.

Here is a pic taken from the site where the Athens webcam is located and linked to above

20cm's he is reporting now in the north of the city and its currently snowing goodo there.
This is a site we are unlikely to see here this winter
Wouldnt WC love to have his back garden looking like this one in Athens right now but Alas we were so near yet so far with that pesky high pressure not doing the honourable thing and movint to the north of scandinavia.

Gonzo

i think its really a sign of the changing times we live in.. countries like Greece, Cyprus, Spain & Italy are able to get decent snow almost every winter now and we cant get a flake anymore....so many weather conditons have to be met from all directions for Ireland to see decent snow it puts us with about as much chance as the Canary Islands have of seeing snow any winter.

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote:

i think its really a sign of the changing times we live in.. countries like Greece, Cyprus, Spain & Italy are able to get decent snow almost every winter now and we cant get a flake anymore....so many weather conditons have to be met from all directions for Ireland to see decent snow it puts us with about as much chance as the Canary Islands have of seeing snow any winter.

There is gonna be a week or two more of pure boring high pressure but that post was just ridiculus.

Scubadevils

Yes but a week or two more of hp and then we start wondering where the next cold spell/snap is going to come from, before we know it its March and we are saying heres to next winter. I would be amazed if we see any decent snow in the next 8 weeks.

Gordon

Mmm that snow looks good. Not as much here in the centre of Athens but enough for work to be cancelled!

Gonzo, afair, Athens hasn't had much snow since the 80s (except for the rare three day, or so, snowfall we had two years ago) by the way.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

There is gonna be a week or two more of pure boring high pressure but that post was just ridiculus.

In fairness its not really that ridiculous.
You've had one significant snowfall in your area which is now several years ago and it was short lived.
There have been no week or 2 week snowy spells in Ireland for 15 years.
In my lifetime up untill about 15 years ago I'd have expected at least 2 decent easterly snow events here.

Since I've had my weather station installed last october I've only gone below zero a couple of times this winter even when theres been an Easterly.
Whereas in ordinary conditions ie clear winter skies I'd have had sub zero often enough here prior to ten years ago.

And dont come back and say the country hasnt been devoid of sub zero's ,I know it hasnt but I'll wager that they are not as frequent as they used to be and while theres the occasional severe and record breaking one, its fleeting.

Easterlies just dont have their punch this far west anymore.
Northerlies never had in comparison.

ninebeanrows

Who is to compare been "now" and "then" weather doesnt follow time and dates.

The winter has been very poor and looks like being amazingly boring for
the coming weeks.

But in the bigger perspective i do not agree

Gonzo

weathercheck last time i saw decent snow was when i was 16 years old, that was 15 years ago (1991), since that time all i can remember is about 4 or 5 days of snow over the past 15 years combined and in all that time any snowfalls we've had in my area rarely exceed one or two inchs of snow, i think in 2001 after christmas we got 3 1/2 inchs. winter is now well past its half way point and as you say yourself we are facing 2 more weeks of boring non eventfull weather, that leads us almost to March and by then its almost too late so my post is not ridicilous. I just write about what ive seen over the past years and every winter without fail i get dissapointed with nonevent after nonevent, snow is just getting too rare around these parts for my liking, Im really beginnning to think that decent snow is quickly becoming a thing of the past - my childhood memorys, not only here but in the uk as well, the snowlines seem to be pushing further east with each and every winter. Even if we do happen to get a decent snow event next winter it could be 20 years again after that before the next one.

CerebralCortex

I'd have to agree. The North Atlantic Drift just seems relentless in its ability to deliver heat. It never stops raining here in Galway and when it does like now there is little or no major temp drops.
Sooner or later the NAD always wins.

lucernarian

Gonzo wrote:

Im really beginnning to think that decent snow is quickly becoming a thing of the past

In a way you are right, it is a thing of the past. The thing is that we can still get northerlies and are not that rare. Indeed, it was unusual for us to have a northerly before December, weak as it was.

Where you are right is when it comes to easterlies. It seems we have not had a cold prolonged easterly since 1991, yet there were at least another 3 in the 15 years before that. Four severe easterlies in less than 15 years followed by none (significant) in the 15 years afterwards.

There's definetely something amiss and I hope that we're in some sort of a climate phase where zonal conditions prevail and therefore northerlies are more likely to occur than easterlies.

I say hope because global warming etc. might have an effect and I don't want to go down that road:)

Latest models show a trend where the HP over us is not going anywhere any time soon... It actually shows the HP near us right to the end of the run. I can't see that happening though there'll be at least a week of HP over us I think.

ninebeanrows

CerebralCortex wrote:

I'd have to agree. The North Atlantic Drift just seems relentless in its ability to deliver heat. It never stops raining here in Galway and when it does like now there is little or no major temp drops.
Sooner or later the NAD always wins.

Well you wont be seeing much rain in the coming weeks!

And us here in the east are suffering from a very dry winter!

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

But in the bigger perspective i do not agree

Usually one backs up the "I do not agree" with proof...
1 significant snow event in 15 years speaks for itself
You are deluding yourself if you expect anything different.

Of course events will happen again but they will be as rare as ever.

This winter is becoming another one of them.

And incidently this winter is not drier than others when you include the record breaking november rain.
There is no drought here.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Latest models show a trend where the HP over us is not going anywhere any time soon... It actually shows the HP near us right to the end of the run. I can't see that happening though there'll be at least a week of HP over us I think.

Anything beyond 96 hours is nonsense tbh.
The reason why its still there in a week or 10 days in the models is simply because they dont know what to do with it.
With so much cold air to our north and our east and now even to our south, those models are loathe to suggest what will happen if the HP goes one way or another.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote:

the snowlines seem to be pushing further east with each and every winter. Even if we do happen to get a decent snow event next winter it could be 20 years again after that before the next one.

They are actually pushing higher to be more accurate and yes East as well.

For instance last february 2005 when I went to 1000ft above seal level I saw proper snow like that I remember as a kid ie pure deep powder.There was proper ice up there too and long icicles.
At 2000ft above sea level I was waist deep in drifts.

Thankfully thats always only going to be 5 miles away from me in a marginal event.

Supercell

Earthman wrote:

Usually one backs up the "I do not agree" with proof...
1 significant snow event in 15 years speaks for itself
You are deluding yourself if you expect anything different.

Of course events will happen again but they will be as rare as ever.

This winter is becoming another one of them.

And incidently this winter is not drier than others when you include the record breaking november rain.
There is no drought here.

Most people would consider winter to be dec, jan & feb :P, while its not drought conditions here , its certainly a very dry winter so far!!
Also think you might be thinking of octobers rain.

In both casement and dublin airport, nov, dec and so far jan are all below normal.

Gonzo

at least i can be thankfull for the dry weather, the only precipitation i like is snow:) i really do not like the rain at all. Im hoping that this dry winter (exception of november) is a sign of things to come this summer... I want a good dryish summer with warm temperatures and were certaintly seeing more of those over the past 10 years.

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

The reason why its still there in a week or 10 days in the models is simply because they dont know what to do with it.

Yes, that's the conclusion I drew myself when I saw very similar trends to what we have around now, in 16 days time. That simply will not happen. I do agree though with the models up to about 6 days, what with a weaker jet and a pretty stable HP over us that has nowhere especially obvious to go. I could be wrong, but that's part of the fun:)

CerebralCortex

Weathercheck wrote:

Well you wont be seeing much rain in the coming weeks!

And us here in the east are suffering from a very dry winter!

We shall see.

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

Most people would consider winter to be dec, jan & feb :P, while its not drought conditions here , its certainly a very dry winter so far!!
Also think you might be thinking of octobers rain.

In both casement and dublin airport, nov, dec and so far jan are all below normal.

I doubt November was record dry as November here was quite wet-though Iirc I know casement was considerably drier than most stations in october and november.
And the wettest 24hr period here was actually on the 29th of Dec when I had over 19mm.

That said we usually pay for a dry january with a wet march or April


Resevoirs in Eastern Ireland are quite full which speaks for itself.
We are not the south or the south East of England.

Strasser

Blessington resevoir is quiet low at the moment for the time of year.

darkman2

Major improvement with the 12z, shows somes interesting developements as early as 144 that ultimately lead to an Easterly:)