sweet dreams are made of these who are we to disagree travel the world and the seven

Supercell

Hmm, I really hope the gfs is borked!!

A wet and windy start to february while we watch the snow in Eastern England on Sky news?

ninebeanrows

An good UKMETin my opinion keeping things blocked with a sever cold pool
pushing our way.

I'm not bothering with the models untill next week so carry on folks.
I'll comment further on Tuesday.

Somethings coming and I know its coming but I dont know at this stage will it deliver here-I dont have enough information other than a trend.

All I know is that if the air out East advects west properly then we are in business.

However, I keep seeing pressure too high in Ireland or Atlantic invasions undercutting the cold air.
Both are possible as is a prolonged cold spell

Lets see what the end of next week brings and the T+96 charts on february 1st could be fascinating

Or they mightnt, they might show the cold another week away :rolleyes:

Its up to mother nature and best of good luck to numerical models in second guessing her.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

An good UKMETin my opinion keeping things blocked with a sever cold pool
pushing our way.

That chart is in Kelvin WC

You thats good at Maths do a conversion there will ya, good chap!

It seems we are the same shade as Wales... which wouldnt be bad but it will be different tomorrow-no doubt.

ninebeanrows

I'll be watching but i really urge people to not give up hope there is plenty
of time for major change good or bad

Oh I've not.
Just tired of the various evolutions.
I'd rather just wait and see what roars in and then judge for how long
Just like in yesteryear.

I suspect I'll watch countryfile and the farming forecast and mondays models.

maquiladora

Like Earthman said, it's still far too early to tell whats going to happen, but its also not a time to give up either!

Sure, I'll admit that deep down I have the fear that it'll just be chilly here with maybe a few winty showers on high ground while eastern/northen england gets the snow of our dreams :rolleyes: ....BUT...still, theres something special about this one, I think we all feel it:)

Either way, nobody can admit that its not going to be a very interesting and exciting few days ahead watching to see how the models react and change as the beauty/beast approaches :cool:

Scubadevils

I think I have given up now, certainly not going to bother waiting for the various models to come out etc.

Before I discovered that you could even do that I relied on our RTE weather forecasts which I reckon I will return to for now at least. Its bad enough in the past watching parts of the UK getting plastered with snow while we have nothing but to be on the rollercoaster with them now in the hope of something here is a hell of a lot worse - getting caught up in what various people are saying on the other UK forums to find as we get nearer to the event that its going to do pretty much nothing for us! Don't think I can take that any more, well, might have a glance when the 18z is finished just in case

Supercell

LOL , I think Earthman needs a few days away from the models!! , seriously !!

What will be will be, just doesnt seem likely to be anything to do with snow in the next week or so..still a long way to go..while there is a massive cold block on the near continent -anythings possible!!

lucernarian

Longfield wrote:

LOL , I think Earthman needs a few days away from the models!! , seriously !!

What will be will be, just doesnt seem likely to be anything to do with snow in the next week or so..still a long way to go..while there is a massive cold block on the near continent -anythings possible!!

I think we all need a break from the models!! Damn charts always predict warm westerlies correctly but rarely cold weather. Murphy's law I say.

I've decided to throw out the idea of looking at the models aswell. I looked at the +6 hr GFS chart and from what I can read of it I would say that HP from Scananavia links with the HP over us but that Icelandic LP has to go somewhere and it is likely to split the ridge between us and Siberia. That LP will be squeezed a bit by HP from both directions so I'd expect it to stall around Belarus or Lithuania.

I think that what happens from there on depends on whether there is a HP near Iceland/Greenland to support the Scandi HP. If there is, there could be north-easterly winds with the possibility of snow. If the atlantic approaches with a LP however, I would imagine the HP will head towards France, especially with current limited anticyclonic activity there.

Now I know this is a very amateurish forecast and 2 problems with it are that I didn't/can't account for everything and I can't tell how quickly it might happen. Correct me where I'm wrong in my reading of the current situation:)

Point of this is that there is little fun in having a computer do all the work for me so I may as well give it a shot.

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

LOL , I think Earthman needs a few days away from the models!! , seriously !!

Not at all
I'd just not bother wasting my time wading through them over and over again this far out from an event.
I'll look again next week.

That said,I'm off to the pub now I expect a blow by blow account here of the 18z when I come back

darkman2

Wont happen though.

maquiladora

These models are really teasing us.....



:v: :v:

SpitfireIV

ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH stop this! Cant take it anymore!!


(only messing, I can...;) ) Still though, the 18z is looking a little better than the 12z, right? But even still, I cant figure out how when one run shows the cold slipping away that ye 'call off' winter, even though ye are basing your assumptions on those charts in the first place that ye know can and will change.

maquiladora

Waiting for WC and Longfield's reaction after the 18z

Evil Knievel is revvin' his engine up for this ramp...

Oh, and, ensemble : http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

darkman2

There is support shown by the average for -5 at least. Lets hope its the beginning of something useful and not the horror runs of earlier today:cool:

Scubadevils

I refuse to get excited. I swore I would go to bed tonight without checking!!!

Gonzo

those charts just mean nothing when predicting cold/snowy weather unless its less than 12 hours in advance... they could swing around to 16C for tomorrow and -10 for tuesday, they make no sense wotsoever its like winning the lottery the predictions are that odd . stick to whats most reliable - look out the window if its freezing and it starts snowing then i'll believe that we mite get snow...

I hate to be disappointing but basically those charts are as valueless as the ones a few days ago showing something similar for the 28th that went all mild in the last 3 runs all mild in that they have put it a week later.
It suggests to me that in a week, what has now been predicted for the 28th will be shown for the 3rd of february ie meaningless pushing foward of a spell that never quite makes it.


I am slightly drunk tho... so my judgement could be a tad impaired.

LoL

Cold outlier or not that was one fantastic run...

Just had a look at it all.

Mamma Mia if that happened, we may stock up and I'd have to grease up the generator...

I know a lot of it is FI, but for fecks sake like, loads of lows caught up in the easterly = Deep Deep powder,should that happen.

ninebeanrows

Looks like the games nearly up folks..

all models are agreeing pretty well that the high will just sit over
us and fail to link east. It will be cold and frosty for a few days but
with no snow and cold airmass.

Fupp fupp fupp

SpitfireIV

The 06z looks like a whole bunch of fun..........:(

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Looks like the games nearly up folks..

all models are agreeing pretty well that the high will just sit over
us and fail to link east. It will be cold and frosty for a few days but
with no snow and cold airmass.

Fupp fupp fupp

Exactly the same as last year then...
Thats why I generally dont get excited beyond the point of "wow thats a great run if it came off."

By the way I wouldnt give up the ghost yet...that high could do anything countryfile still had it to the north East of the UK on friday and theWMO discussion is talking about model disagreement so really its a situation that models on their own cant call.-It needs the human input of experienced forecasters to solve it.

lucernarian

Evelyn Cusack going for cold weather by next weekend on the farming forecast. The HP was shown to be basically parked over the british isles.

Does this seem the most likely scenario? I would think that with a weak jet, the atlantic will have a hard time breaking through, and the possible coldish weather could be a "prefreeze" to a more significant event in February. Fingers crossed.

Well its all up in the air literally....

To tell you the truth,I didnt like that forecast because it showed a tendency for the high to slip south after it leaves Britain and that would bring us back to zonal.

It's not going to be much colder than average at the end of the week if thats the trend.
Theres a slight feed of Easterly but only really of modified British air...
Now we know what their weather is like currently so add 2 degrees to it and you'll get our temps ie pretty crappy from a snow point of view.

I dont like the way ECM has gone either
Remember thats the EUROPEAN model it should be better at solving European synoptics-though what we have now is more peculiar than usual.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I would think that with a weak jet, the atlantic will have a hard time breaking through, and the possible coldish weather could be a "prefreeze" to a more significant event in February. Fingers crossed.

I'm afraid to say thats wishfull thinking again and has no basis in fact obviously.
There were plenty of winters in the 80's where Europe froze and we got none of it as the Atlantic generally influence us and sometimes drifted in as far as Berlin before pushing back west agin to park over us.

We need the synoptics right and sitting in the Ocean as we do several hundred miles from the continent, its much more difficult for that continental climate to influence ours.

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

I'm afraid to say thats wishfull thinking again and has no basis in fact obviously.

I certainly do wish it, and I'm only being optimistic when I say it. It seems like we're on track for a cooler end to the week. I think that's a better position to be in heading into February than in a LP based strong zonal flow.

As for the jet and the Atlantic;

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn0014.png

The atlantic seems preety inactive at the moment to my untrained eye though in fairness that can change. To have the HP remain over the British Isles during the weekend can't be ruled out IMO.

maquiladora

Alan Repperts euro weather blog from accuweather :


Much Colder and Maybe Some Ocean Effect?

Sunday, January 22, 2006

Well, that cold air does look to be on the doorstep by the end of the week and into the weekend, and even though the models have backed down a bit on the cold in England, it still does look like it will be here. And as some people around the Great Lakes know, with colder temperatures and stronger winds, snow sometimes falls from the Lake Effect snow. And as strange as it sounds, Ocean Effect snow can occur and will likely occur next weekend. With the winds out of the east through much of the lower levels as the storm moves towards England, this provides some of the needed ingredients for the Ocean Effect. Along with that, a cold airmass will be over the warm ocean temperatures in the middle and upper 40s. And with some stronger winds off the ocean, this will help to bring some of this Ocean Effect snow.

Short term, it looks like temperatures will be dropping a bit. The warmth has been somewhat tempered as already, parts of this bitterly cold airmass over Russia are showing its strength. Temperatures have dropped to near freezing even over London for the first time in nearly a week and a half. But the true news over Western Europe will be with the much colder temperatures for the end of the week and into next weekend.

darkman2

12z is MUCH better, alot of scope for something more significant. ECM at 168 should be interesting:)

SpitfireIV

Bit of a difference alright in the 12z, I wish it would stop changing all the time :rolleyes: , that aint gonna happen but it'd be nice if it stuck with something

maquiladora

Yes, the models will keep changing with each run till we get to about tuesday/wednesday when we will see them start to become consistent, one way or the other. But its certainly looking interesting.

lucernarian

Danno wrote:

Evelyn Cusack seemed confident that the High Pressure will be sitting right over us by Friday. It does not look good at the moment, but I doubt there will be much change. I am writing it off. Even when February comes, the sun will be much higher and will melt any "chances" of snow.

Bring on the spring/summer thunderstorms.

I won't give up yet. If the HP should sit over us then at least we will have some pleasant winter weather... it's no blizzard but at least it could be dry. What's interesting is what that HP will do afterwards, should it stay over the british isles this weekend.

Things will become much clearer once Tuesday night has passed.

Supercell

Constant theme there, the cold is always in FI, couple of days ago it started on 27th ..now its 29th.

Until these spells start moving a bit closer than tbh FI is just that and might as well be ignored completely.

Been there done that..a rather peeved Longfield (am i ever going to see a proper dump of snow again in Dublin ???!!!)

Danno

Danno wrote:

Even when February comes, the sun will be much higher and will melt any "chances" of snow.

I wouldnt say that now.I remember some cracking good easterly snow here in the month of february-albeit a long time ago in '91

There was a lot of snow too in february of 1963 and the heaviest snow of 1947 was actually in early march.

That said my cut off point is mid february.
After that point, the synoptics have to be totally perfect to have a good event due to as you say the longer days , greater radiation from the sun etc.

As for Longfields snow event in Dublin.
I'd say probably in february if that jet stays south.

Lots of northerlies in FI too which will be good for wales when the polar lows dip down the Irish sea... mind you, ya could be lucky and get the equivalent of those october 2003 Dublin thunderstorms at some point.
They were from a northerly and disturbances drifting down the Irish sea that stayed in the west of the sea and hugged the coast.
That type of scenario would give you a heap of snow

No point hypothesising though-lets jsut keep an eye on it-everything is still posssible.

darkman2

Just to let you know JMA follows the GFS 12z Evolution. An Easterly would almost certainly follow so it remains to be seen over the next couple of days wether the ECM comes on board. Having said that the ensembles arnt too bad showing the average fall away toward the end of the week.

lucernarian

There was something interesting on the farming frecast today. Rainfall amounts are up to 150% above average along the west coast, while the east coast had 35% of average rainfall in January (so far?). I wonder why the difference is so marked??

The 1800 GFS chart is coming out over the next hour. Hopefully we will see something good to talk about. A northerly would be interesting as it takes less for it to deliver - easterlies have more potential but the conditions have to be fine-tuned for them to deliver the goods while a snow shower or two are nearly always likely for me if there is a northerly.

Supercell

To_be_confirmed wrote:

There was something interesting on the farming frecast today. Rainfall amounts are up to 150% above average along the west coast, while the east coast had 35% of average rainfall in January (so far?). I wonder why the difference is so marked??

G.W. ..this is exactly what happens, eventually the west will dry out too..then NI then Scotland.

Ok just an update for anyone reading who is just passing through.

The trend at the moment is the models are all over the place.
The last 8 or 10 runs in a row separated by 6 hours have offered completely different outcomes.

So basically if you are concerned about what the weather is going to be like in a week or 10 days or in 5 days,We cannot tell you with any degree of certainty what is going to happen.

All I can gather at the moment is that we are guaranteed cold , dry and settled probably for the next week but confidence drops after 5 days when it could either get very very cold and possibly snowy or more than likely continue dry and settled.
There is an equal likelyhood with similar low confidence though that it could get milder after 7 days(from today) with a return to wind and rain from the south west.

All publically available tools (and I suspect those that we cant see) are unable at the moment to agree a solution with reasonable certainty.

Ergo you wont get a confident forecast beyond 4 days at the moment untill it becomes clear where the area of high pressure that is currently determining our weather moves.
The models are putting it in a different place, chopping and changing it with every run at the moment and thats frankly useless for forecasting.

If you urgently need to know whats going to happen in the next week to two weeks-keep an eye on the TV forecasts for sure but ,I know theres a few people on here who are well able to keep a keen eye on developments too and we will post our thoughts as often as we think that theres a trend developing.

So keep Tuned here also.

SpitfireIV

The 18z is ehhh............interesting

Scubadevils

not looking good so?! I wonder are there forums in Moscow where they look for signs of warm weather in FI? :eek:

SpitfireIV

Silence.........no comments? :rolleyes:

Gordon

Very slight snow here in Greece, Athens. Mostly sleet though.

ninebeanrows

croppy lets just say the silence speaks volumes...

SpitfireIV

I think so WC, everyone down hearted?

Strasser

There's always hope when there's high pressure around, depends where it goes. It seems to me no one, esp. the models, can predict this with any accuracy at the moment.

Earthman

Earthman wrote:

Ok just an update for anyone reading who is just passing through.

The trend at the moment is the models are all over the place.
The last 8 or 10 runs in a row separated by 6 hours have offered completely different outcomes.

So basically if you are concerned about what the weather is going to be like in a week or 10 days or in 5 days,We cannot tell you with any degree of certainty what is going to happen.

All I can gather at the moment is that we are guaranteed cold , dry and settled probably for the next week but confidence drops after 5 days when it could either get very very cold and possibly snowy or more than likely continue dry and settled.
There is an equal likelyhood with similar low confidence though that it could get milder after 7 days(from today) with a return to wind and rain from the south west.

All publically available tools (and I suspect those that we cant see) are unable at the moment to agree a solution with reasonable certainty.

Ergo you wont get a confident forecast beyond 4 days at the moment untill it becomes clear where the area of high pressure that is currently determining our weather moves.
The models are putting it in a different place, chopping and changing it with every run at the moment and thats frankly useless for forecasting.

If you urgently need to know whats going to happen in the next week to two weeks-keep an eye on the TV forecasts for sure but ,I know theres a few people on here who are well able to keep a keen eye on developments too and we will post our thoughts as often as we think that theres a trend developing.

So keep Tuned here also.

The above remains valid for at least 10 days except confidence is raised as to the High pressure being around and governing our weatehr for at least 7 to 10 days.
Whats in FI after that looks uninspiring-certainly no Easterly but some cold zonality returns perhaps.

As for Gordon in Athens, Snow by the weekend is possible

Gonzo

judging by the forecasts on the tv anyway it looks like the cold weather isnt gonna make it as far as ireland at all now, temps of 5c to 8c for the weekend with sunny spells and frosty nights, the south-east of england is gonna get quite cold but still above 0c during the day even there no real snow risk. Metcheck have confirmed that the snowrisk is gone from the UK. If you want snow head to the mediteranean:)

Supercell

Tbh i'd prefer wind and rain over the likely overcast and dry muck thats probable for the next week or so.

maquiladora

Snow cancel

lucernarian

Longfield wrote:

Tbh i'd prefer wind and rain over the likely overcast and dry muck thats probable for the next week or so.

I wouldn't mind some more dry and settled weather at all. We all know that we will get our fair share of zonality sooner or later so you may as well enjoy the settled conditions while they last. It's not often that we have as dry a winter as this has been so far IMO.

Gonzo is right about snow for this week, the Mediterranean is the place to be this week, or at least the eastern end is. We still have 6 weeks of opportunities and sonething like last year could happen where there was a few let downs through January and February until we struck lucky. I suppose lucky isnt the right word to use when describing at most 2 inches of snow but anyway...