Its that day again, 1 November, when, with Halloween over us, thoughts turn to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming....
This particular thread turns 10 today - if you don't believe me the first from 2010 is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many!) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!
As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.
The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 15 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).
The CFS (a longe range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. And the good news is that over the last 10 days or so the CFS (which updates daily but using data from the previous day I believe) has been showing plenty of cold and snow around over Christmas with several iterations showing snow falling on the big day itself.
However, and unfortunately, that has all changed and at present the CFS shows the following:-
Unfortunately, for the uninitiated, that's a horrible day with heavy rain, strong winds and mildish temps. Yuk.
As most of you will know the big UK weather sites run their own White Christmas pages, some of which have been running since September!
The excellent www.theweatheroutlook.com have their 8th update posted this morning which unfortunately follows the pattern of today's CFS and states:-
"Christmas weather forecast
TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn.
The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates have now started.
TheWeatherOutlook says - Update 8: No change to the percentage chance.
The eighth update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south.
The latest considerations are:
Seasonal forecast model updates suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated winter is favoured.
October weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have continued.
Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.
Chance of snow on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%
Updates 1: 01/09/2019, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 29/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10, 8: 20/10
The Computer says
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
Cold conditions in the north are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
Cold conditions in Scotland are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands
Forecast issued 01/11/2019 06:53:43"
Meanwhile Netweather's famous Santa Shaker Christmas Forecast tool gives the Republic of Ireland an encouraging "zero per cent" change of snow on the big day this year!
Ah well, chin up and all of that. Happily, there are still 53.5 days (or over 1300 hours) still to go so there are many, many model runs to go between now and then to post here - at least some of which will undoubtedly hold out the promise of white gold.
Until then, here's a pic courtesy of the journal.ie of the last big white Christmas in 2004...