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10th Annual White Christmas Thread!

  • 01-11-2019 10:28am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Its that day again, 1 November, when, with Halloween over us, thoughts turn to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming....

    This particular thread turns 10 today - if you don't believe me the first from 2010 is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many!) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!

    As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.

    The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 15 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).

    The CFS (a longe range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. And the good news is that over the last 10 days or so the CFS (which updates daily but using data from the previous day I believe) has been showing plenty of cold and snow around over Christmas with several iterations showing snow falling on the big day itself.

    However, and unfortunately, that has all changed and at present the CFS shows the following:-

    19122512_3100.gif

    Unfortunately, for the uninitiated, that's a horrible day with heavy rain, strong winds and mildish temps. Yuk.

    As most of you will know the big UK weather sites run their own White Christmas pages, some of which have been running since September!

    The excellent www.theweatheroutlook.com have their 8th update posted this morning which unfortunately follows the pattern of today's CFS and states:-

    "Christmas weather forecast

    TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn.

    The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates have now started.

    TheWeatherOutlook says - Update 8: No change to the percentage chance.

    The eighth update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south.

    The latest considerations are:

    Seasonal forecast model updates suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated winter is favoured.

    October weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have continued.

    Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.

    Chance of snow on Christmas Day

    North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%

    South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

    Updates 1: 01/09/2019, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 29/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10, 8: 20/10

    The Computer says
    It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
    It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
    Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
    Cold conditions in the north are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
    Cold conditions in Scotland are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
    It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
    It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
    It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

    Forecast issued 01/11/2019 06:53:43"


    Meanwhile Netweather's famous Santa Shaker Christmas Forecast tool gives the Republic of Ireland an encouraging "zero per cent" change of snow on the big day this year!

    Ah well, chin up and all of that. Happily, there are still 53.5 days (or over 1300 hours) still to go so there are many, many model runs to go between now and then to post here - at least some of which will undoubtedly hold out the promise of white gold.

    Until then, here's a pic courtesy of the journal.ie of the last big white Christmas in 2004...

    ?width=630&version=2484137


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    Always liked this thread.
    I'm predicting I will wake up to a foot of snow christmas morning which will quickly accumulate to a foot and a half as we sit for christmas dinner. (Yes Ireland)
    The south west not doing quiet as well. They will just have to settle for a foot of snow.
    Word of warning though I have been wrong once before ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,536 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    "If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.."

    If wishes were snowfall, some folk would have us buried to the rooftops :rolleyes:

    Still seeking to build my last snowman :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭ Call me Al


    Graces7 wrote: »
    "If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.."

    If wishes were snowfall, some folk would have us buried to the rooftops :rolleyes:

    Still seeking to build my last snowman :eek:

    Ah graces7, the day we see the sea freezing over you might have a chance :-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,536 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Call me Al wrote: »
    Ah graces7, the day we see the sea freezing over you might have a chance :-)

    It did at Killybegs in 2010...Literally .. all I need is enough for a decent SNOWMAN! lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    I would like for the weather this Xmas to feel at least a bit seasonal. Most xmases since 2010 have often felt unseasonal. Last dec for example was such a crap month ,day after day of mild cloudy dull nothingness. Didn't feel seasonal at all.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 447 ✭✭ KingdomRushed


    Weirdly, I find mild christmas weather to be perfectly seasonal. I guess in my thirty odd years I have experienced more mild christmas days than cold, so a mild christmas day feels apt and perfectly christmassy! I think I firmly recall a maximum of 3 christmas days with snow on the ground. In each case I believe a melt was already underway in the morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Even a potent Northerly on Christmas eve evening would do.

    Hell even a shower of hail and some fog to follow Xmas morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 958 ✭✭✭ esposito


    pauldry wrote: »
    Even a potent Northerly on Christmas eve evening would do.

    Hell even a shower of hail and some fog to follow Xmas morning.

    I’d settle for a frosty Christmas Eve and morning, Cold and dry Christmas Day with plenty of sunshine, a high of 5°C followed by a frosty night. And rinse and repeat for St Stephens day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,536 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    pauldry wrote: »
    Even a potent Northerly on Christmas eve evening would do.

    Hell even a shower of hail and some fog to follow Xmas morning.

    Ah now come on! Not a kind thought when folk need to be out to families... Ah maybe you are in jest! Sorry! Just the thought of it gave me fear.

    Need sweet mild weather or a small sprinkling of snow!


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,536 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    esposito wrote: »
    I’d settle for a frosty Christmas Eve and morning, Cold and dry Christmas Day with plenty of sunshine, a high of 5°C followed by a frosty night. And rinse and repeat for St Stephens day.

    Ah that is better! Thank you


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    Graces7 wrote: »
    "

    If wishes were snowfall, some folk would have us buried to the rooftops :rolleyes:

    :

    Guilty:pac:

    Well, to be honest i'd settle for one or two prolonged heavy snow showers on Christmas Eve from 10 till midnight, so there was a good covering on the ground. I would go to bed happy then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    A few inches of snow will make the place Christmassy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,536 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    A few inches of snow will make the place Christmassy.

    So you will all be happy helping us old ones get to Mass and to families! Christmas is in the heart as well... Means a lot to folk #to get out that day!
    Not that our wishes count for anything ;)

    Just a pretty inch? Then after St stephens. let it rip!


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,536 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    I have a confession to make!

    Something I had forgotten ( old age..) came ….. drifting into my memory...

    The second winter I was in Ireland, high on a Leitrim mountain, I was getting ready to drive down to Midnight Mass on Christmas Eve..

    At the door when slowly snow started to fall... gently, silently... Sheer magic. There was no way I could get down safely. or back up again

    So I stayed home in the peace and enchantment of falling Christmas snow,,, put the outside light on as the white flakes fell

    If it snows it snows!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,574 ✭✭✭ Jude13


    Hoping for a 2010 style snow, but only after I land. I was stuck in transit on the way home that year and spent about 16 hours waiting on my second flight to leave Abu Dhabi. Only then to land in Shannon not Dublin.

    Anywho, a harsh frost so it looks all christmasy will do.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Todays CFS is interesting....19122512_1100.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,574 ✭✭✭ Jude13


    Yup very green, but no white, very interesting....(I need to read up on what a CFS does)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Jude13 wrote: »
    Yup very green, but no white, very interesting....(I need to read up on what a CFS does)
    That actually may well have been white! The CFS is a long range weather model. As with anything very longe range its accuracy is, em..., open to question shall we say.

    Anyway, to show just how fickle it is, here is today's iteration showing a roughly 15c increase in upper air temperature from the one posted above! This would certainly be a green christmas....

    19122512_1200.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,574 ✭✭✭ Jude13


    Cheers for the explanation. Booo for a green Christmas


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,376 ✭✭✭ Reckless Abandonment


    Guilty:pac:

    Well, to be honest i'd settle for one or two prolonged heavy snow showers on Christmas Eve from 10 till midnight, so there was a good covering on the ground. I would go to bed happy then.

    Followed by blizzards all Christmas day. No mother in law :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Well its now less than 1000 hrs to go and the excitement is..., er..., emm..., palpable?

    The CFS is back in our good books today giving a widespread white Christmas (lying snow, albeit very light) as per the below.

    19122500_1400.gif

    19122500_1400.gif

    19122500_1400.gif

    G'wan the CFS!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,574 ✭✭✭ Jude13


    Fingers crossed that it stays like that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Bit of a yikes forecast from the CFS today. It shows seriously mild weather taking over for some time from around 20 December onwards. See below. Miles away still obviously so could be wildly inaccurate. The (slightly) more reliable GFS will start to show forecasts for the Xmas period from early December so we are maybe 10 days away from a bit more reliability. That said, for the last number of years, the Christmas period has looked doomed to be mild from a long way out so fingers crossed that doesn't happen again. Well due a cold (and hopefully white) one.

    Pressure

    19122512_2100.gif

    Day time temps

    19122512_2100.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Just cross posting here MTs December forecast. Boo........

    ".....For December, I am predicting temperatures 1.5 to 2.5 degrees above normal, rainfall near normal to 25% above normal, and occasionally stormy with strong winds especially towards end of the month. Just an educated guess but I think it is more likely to be a windy holiday period than a white Christmas scenario but perhaps some northern hills will see some snow out of that kind of pattern...".


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,513 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Loughc


    Another year another mild, wet, windy winter. :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,536 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Followed by blizzards all Christmas day. No mother in law :)

    The feeling is probably reciprocated ;) With the two of you hoping for blizzards?

    For me it can snow or whatever after 18th as that is when the last of my supplies will be ferried in. lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Just a bit of bad news for those hoping for a white Christmas but my following statement won't necessarily state what type of Christmas we get.

    I THINK DECEMBER 2019 WILL BE MILDER THAN NOVEMBER 2019.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,513 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Loughc


    Jpmarn wrote: »

    I THINK DECEMBER 2019 WILL BE MILDER THAN NOVEMBER 2019.

    I think you're right!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Certainly.

    Our coldest Month of the season has just passed if you ask me bar Spring


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