10th Annual White Christmas Thread!

Rebelbrowser

Its that day again, 1 November, when, with Halloween over us, thoughts turn to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming....

This particular thread turns 10 today - if you don't believe me the first from 2010 is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many!) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!

As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.

The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 15 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).

The CFS (a longe range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. And the good news is that over the last 10 days or so the CFS (which updates daily but using data from the previous day I believe) has been showing plenty of cold and snow around over Christmas with several iterations showing snow falling on the big day itself.

However, and unfortunately, that has all changed and at present the CFS shows the following:-



Unfortunately, for the uninitiated, that's a horrible day with heavy rain, strong winds and mildish temps. Yuk.

As most of you will know the big UK weather sites run their own White Christmas pages, some of which have been running since September!

The excellent www.theweatheroutlook.com have their 8th update posted this morning which unfortunately follows the pattern of today's CFS and states:-

"Christmas weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates have now started.

TheWeatherOutlook says - Update 8: No change to the percentage chance.

The eighth update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south.

The latest considerations are:

Seasonal forecast model updates suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated winter is favoured.

October weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have continued.

Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

Updates 1: 01/09/2019, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 29/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10, 8: 20/10

The Computer says
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
Cold conditions in the north are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
Cold conditions in Scotland are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

Forecast issued 01/11/2019 06:53:43"

Meanwhile Netweather's famous Santa Shaker Christmas Forecast tool gives the Republic of Ireland an encouraging "zero per cent" change of snow on the big day this year!

Ah well, chin up and all of that. Happily, there are still 53.5 days (or over 1300 hours) still to go so there are many, many model runs to go between now and then to post here - at least some of which will undoubtedly hold out the promise of white gold.

Until then, here's a pic courtesy of the journal.ie of the last big white Christmas in 2004...

bazlers

Always liked this thread.
I'm predicting I will wake up to a foot of snow christmas morning which will quickly accumulate to a foot and a half as we sit for christmas dinner. (Yes Ireland)
The south west not doing quiet as well. They will just have to settle for a foot of snow.
Word of warning though I have been wrong once before

Graces7

"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.."

If wishes were snowfall, some folk would have us buried to the rooftops :rolleyes:

Still seeking to build my last snowman :eek:

Call me Al

Graces7 wrote: »

"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.."

If wishes were snowfall, some folk would have us buried to the rooftops :rolleyes:

Still seeking to build my last snowman :eek:

Ah graces7, the day we see the sea freezing over you might have a chance :-)

Graces7

Call me Al wrote: »

Ah graces7, the day we see the sea freezing over you might have a chance :-)

It did at Killybegs in 2010...Literally .. all I need is enough for a decent SNOWMAN! lol

Billcarson

I would like for the weather this Xmas to feel at least a bit seasonal. Most xmases since 2010 have often felt unseasonal. Last dec for example was such a crap month ,day after day of mild cloudy dull nothingness. Didn't feel seasonal at all.

KingdomRushed

Weirdly, I find mild christmas weather to be perfectly seasonal. I guess in my thirty odd years I have experienced more mild christmas days than cold, so a mild christmas day feels apt and perfectly christmassy! I think I firmly recall a maximum of 3 christmas days with snow on the ground. In each case I believe a melt was already underway in the morning.

pauldry

Even a potent Northerly on Christmas eve evening would do.

Hell even a shower of hail and some fog to follow Xmas morning.

esposito

pauldry wrote: »

Even a potent Northerly on Christmas eve evening would do.

Hell even a shower of hail and some fog to follow Xmas morning.

I’d settle for a frosty Christmas Eve and morning, Cold and dry Christmas Day with plenty of sunshine, a high of 5°C followed by a frosty night. And rinse and repeat for St Stephens day.

Graces7

pauldry wrote: »

Even a potent Northerly on Christmas eve evening would do.

Hell even a shower of hail and some fog to follow Xmas morning.

Ah now come on! Not a kind thought when folk need to be out to families... Ah maybe you are in jest! Sorry! Just the thought of it gave me fear.

Need sweet mild weather or a small sprinkling of snow!

Graces7

esposito wrote: »

I’d settle for a frosty Christmas Eve and morning, Cold and dry Christmas Day with plenty of sunshine, a high of 5°C followed by a frosty night. And rinse and repeat for St Stephens day.

Ah that is better! Thank you

nacho libre

Graces7 wrote: »

"

If wishes were snowfall, some folk would have us buried to the rooftops :rolleyes:

:

Guilty:pac:

Well, to be honest i'd settle for one or two prolonged heavy snow showers on Christmas Eve from 10 till midnight, so there was a good covering on the ground. I would go to bed happy then.

Jpmarn

A few inches of snow will make the place Christmassy.

Graces7

Jpmarn wrote: »

A few inches of snow will make the place Christmassy.

So you will all be happy helping us old ones get to Mass and to families! Christmas is in the heart as well... Means a lot to folk #to get out that day!
Not that our wishes count for anything

Just a pretty inch? Then after St stephens. let it rip!

Graces7

I have a confession to make!

Something I had forgotten ( old age..) came ….. drifting into my memory...

The second winter I was in Ireland, high on a Leitrim mountain, I was getting ready to drive down to Midnight Mass on Christmas Eve..

At the door when slowly snow started to fall... gently, silently... Sheer magic. There was no way I could get down safely. or back up again

So I stayed home in the peace and enchantment of falling Christmas snow,,, put the outside light on as the white flakes fell

If it snows it snows!

Jude13

Hoping for a 2010 style snow, but only after I land. I was stuck in transit on the way home that year and spent about 16 hours waiting on my second flight to leave Abu Dhabi. Only then to land in Shannon not Dublin.

Anywho, a harsh frost so it looks all christmasy will do.

Oneiric 3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlsJD8RlhbI

Rebelbrowser

Todays CFS is interesting....

Jude13

Yup very green, but no white, very interesting....(I need to read up on what a CFS does)

Rebelbrowser

Jude13 wrote: »

Yup very green, but no white, very interesting....(I need to read up on what a CFS does)

That actually may well have been white! The CFS is a long range weather model. As with anything very longe range its accuracy is, em..., open to question shall we say.

Anyway, to show just how fickle it is, here is today's iteration showing a roughly 15c increase in upper air temperature from the one posted above! This would certainly be a green christmas....

Jude13

Cheers for the explanation. Booo for a green Christmas

Reckless Abandonment

nacho libre wrote: »

Guilty:pac:

Well, to be honest i'd settle for one or two prolonged heavy snow showers on Christmas Eve from 10 till midnight, so there was a good covering on the ground. I would go to bed happy then.

Followed by blizzards all Christmas day. No mother in law

Rebelbrowser

Well its now less than 1000 hrs to go and the excitement is..., er..., emm..., palpable?

The CFS is back in our good books today giving a widespread white Christmas (lying snow, albeit very light) as per the below.







G'wan the CFS!

Jude13

Fingers crossed that it stays like that.

Rebelbrowser

Bit of a yikes forecast from the CFS today. It shows seriously mild weather taking over for some time from around 20 December onwards. See below. Miles away still obviously so could be wildly inaccurate. The (slightly) more reliable GFS will start to show forecasts for the Xmas period from early December so we are maybe 10 days away from a bit more reliability. That said, for the last number of years, the Christmas period has looked doomed to be mild from a long way out so fingers crossed that doesn't happen again. Well due a cold (and hopefully white) one.

Pressure



Day time temps

Rebelbrowser

Just cross posting here MTs December forecast. Boo........

".....For December, I am predicting temperatures 1.5 to 2.5 degrees above normal, rainfall near normal to 25% above normal, and occasionally stormy with strong winds especially towards end of the month. Just an educated guess but I think it is more likely to be a windy holiday period than a white Christmas scenario but perhaps some northern hills will see some snow out of that kind of pattern...".

Loughc

Another year another mild, wet, windy winter.

Graces7

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Followed by blizzards all Christmas day. No mother in law

The feeling is probably reciprocated With the two of you hoping for blizzards?

For me it can snow or whatever after 18th as that is when the last of my supplies will be ferried in. lol

Jpmarn

Just a bit of bad news for those hoping for a white Christmas but my following statement won't necessarily state what type of Christmas we get.

I THINK DECEMBER 2019 WILL BE MILDER THAN NOVEMBER 2019.

Loughc

Jpmarn wrote: »

I THINK DECEMBER 2019 WILL BE MILDER THAN NOVEMBER 2019.

I think you're right!

pauldry

Certainly.

Our coldest Month of the season has just passed if you ask me bar Spring

Graces7

Jpmarn wrote: »

Just a bit of bad news for those hoping for a white Christmas but my following statement won't necessarily state what type of Christmas we get.

I THINK DECEMBER 2019 WILL BE MILDER THAN NOVEMBER 2019.

Thank heaven! The cold this month.. The last 2 winters here I never used a hot water bottle. Been glued to 2 of them this month...

DellyBelly

Jpmarn wrote: »

Just a bit of bad news for those hoping for a white Christmas but my following statement won't necessarily state what type of Christmas we get.

I THINK DECEMBER 2019 WILL BE MILDER THAN NOVEMBER 2019.

Hopefully you are right but less rain would be a bonus...been very wet these last few weeks...

Rebelbrowser

No big changes on the forecast this morning. December is looking a hard one to call generally with indications of a more mobile pattern (wind and rain) mid / late month one day and colder weather indicated the next. The GFS starts forecasting up to Christmas day from this day week onwards. The ECM won't get that far until 15 December. Accordingly we won't really have any particularly educated guesses up until then. For now the GFS only goes up to 18 December but looks chilly enough overall. This morning's CFS is suggesting a very mild spell starting on 23 December. Hopefully not the case....

Villain

Paddy Power 4/1 for Dublin, I might have a little bet I think

Rebelbrowser

Villain wrote: »

Paddy Power 4/1 for Dublin, I might have a little bet I think

Just looked at PP website. Criteria seems to just be that it snows on Christmas day (no mention of amount). Assume it would be for the Met station at Dublin airport to verify.

How many days in winter (1/12 to 28/2) would meet that criteria typically though? I reckon about 3 or 4 at best in an average winter (even allowing for that snow to stick / fall overnight and be washed away before the morning by rain, etc). Thus 4-1 seems fairly ungenerous to me accordingly! That said I'm aware of this stat that it has apparently snowed on average 1 Christmas day out of 7 at Dublin airport since records began. Hard to rationalise that isn't it?

pauldry

Charts for 2nd half of December look very mobile

Id say the chances for Xmas are thus approx so far

Cold and Dry 10 percent
Cold and Showery and breezy 55 per cent
White Out 5 percent

Mild moist and misty 15 percent
Stormy and wet 15 percent

Pretzill

I remember that Christmas Day snowfall in 2004(?) - It was like the perfect kind of snowfall it fell on Christmas eve, I remember looking out the window and seeing a fox walking passed the backdoor Then a lovely covering for a Christmas morning walk and it faded into the evening. Just the right amount.

2009 we had lots of lovely soft snow here too. 2010 was snowy but it had compacted to slippy ice and that made two years in a row with no electric or running water on Christmas day. So I was getting over the noveltly value

Yep, I'd enjoy a return of 2004's snow just for the magic.

Gonzo

In 3 days, FI Charts will take us up to Christmas day so we can get a much better idea how the big day itself will pan out.

The CFS is currently showing mild south-westerlies over Ireland for Christmas Day with a big area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic. This will of course change as this is 3 weeks out.

pauldry

Id say mild moist n misty is most likely now

10 to 13c.....so we can ignore the weather on Xmas day.....again

Gonzo

GFS FI now takes us to Christmas eve. Looking very mild with south-westerlies taken over from 21 December. Most of Europe looks very mild by the 24th with air coming up from the Canary Islands over the UK and Ireland. 13 or 14C across Ireland could easily be reached if this was to verify. If there were a few sunny breaks somewhere east of the Wicklow Mountains could get to 15C.


This is still over 2 weeks away so may be very different by the time we get to Christmas.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS FI now takes us to Christmas eve. Looking very mild with south-westerlies taken over from 21 December. Most of Europe looks very mild by the 24th with air coming up from the Canary Islands over the UK and Ireland. 13 or 14C across Ireland could easily be reached if this was to verify. If there were a few sunny breaks somewhere east of the Wicklow Mountains could get to 15C.


This is still over 2 weeks away so may be very different by the time we get to Christmas.

Really hope so Gonzo. Do not want a repeat of Christmas 2011 & 2015 when temperatures hit 13/14 degrees on Christmas Day. When will the weather gods give us a cold crisp Christmas??

Billcarson

A decade of pure rubbish xmas weather overall if its seasonal weather you want Although it did start with a bang. From about 95 -2010 we got a reasonable amount of seasonal weather at xmas time . Been poor for that since.

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS FI now takes us to Christmas eve. Looking very mild with south-westerlies taken over from 21 December. Most of Europe looks very mild by the 24th with air coming up from the Canary Islands over the UK and Ireland. 13 or 14C across Ireland could easily be reached if this was to verify. If there were a few sunny breaks somewhere east of the Wicklow Mountains could get to 15C.


This is still over 2 weeks away so may be very different by the time we get to Christmas.

Of course nothing set in stone but it is incredible how often this has happened over the last 10 years. Appears almost non random that this plume of warm air arrives from Iberia this time most years.

The One Doctor

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Of course nothing set in stone but it is incredible how often this has happened over the last 10 years. Appears almost non random that this plume of warm air arrives from Iberia this time most years.

Thank you Iberia. We live in an uninsulated farmhouse, so a warm winter is much appreciated.

Billcarson

In this whole decade of xmas weather apart from 2010 (and if I was being picky I wish that cold spell could have lasted up until new yrs instead of finishing on st Stephens day but cant have it all I guess), the only cold weather was a couple of days between xmas day and new yrs 2014 which I got some severe frosts and a day or so at the same time in 2017 when I got a transient snowfall (parts of the Midlands did get some snow in mid dec 2017). So that's what we are up against in the hope for something festive this yr.

Could perhaps include for the sake of it ,22nd dec 2013 ,when I got some heavy wet snow showers. First half of dec 2011 I got 2 or 3 night time dustings.

Very poor.

esposito

Well based on MT’s forecast this morning I think it’s safe to say there won’t be a white Christmas this year. I just hope it’s not exceptionally mild. I’d gladly take temperatures in the 5-8°C range at this stage. Let’s hope this active, mobile regime dissipates in a few weeks time. I’m currently in Wroclaw, Poland and it’s quite mild at 9°C. We need central and eastern Europe to get much colder over the coming weeks for our own prospects down the line. I’m sure it will happen but it’s taking a bit longer than usual.

Billcarson

Well one thing looks likely, a mild run up to xmas as after this average to cool week things do look like turning milder so a mild run up odds on imo whatever happens after....

nacho libre

Feck it anyway. Why can't it be cold and frosty at least!

Jude13

Im hoping for a freak snow storm

Gonzo

Christmas Day has now made it into FI so we can get a better idea what the day has in store for us.



Looks very mild or even warm, if this chart was to verify, it could bring some of the warmest conditions we've had since October. Winds are coming up from Morocco/Canary Islands and the +8C uppers over the country



An area of high pressure is closeby over the UK, which could produce a frosty night if skies were clear enough, but temperatures could shoot up into the low to mid teens in many places during the day.