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24-05-2018, 23:59   #1
Gaoth Laidir
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2018 Hurricane Season

The season kicks off on June 1st and goes until November 30th. The NHC have forecast this year's to be near to above normal (35% chance of above normal, 40% chance of near normal, 25% chance of below normal).







Sea-surface temperatures (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC) are around normal at the moment.


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25-05-2018, 00:04   #2
Gaoth Laidir
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The first system of the season looks like forming over the weekend as a low centre moves northwards into the Gulf.

Quote:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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25-05-2018, 15:55   #3
Supercell
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Lets hope Debby (Debbie) doesn't pay us another visit!
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28-05-2018, 21:54   #4
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Subtropical storm Alberto currently coming ashore on the Florida panhandle. 45 mph winds. Heavy rain and flash flooding warnings issued.
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02-06-2018, 07:30   #5
M.T. Cranium
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If anyone is interested in entering a seasonal contest, I have one running on this website in the U.S.A. ...

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/...ecast-contest/

(you would need to join the forum to post ... and the deadline is given as late Monday June 4th)

If you just want to make a forecast here I will let you know where it would have finished in the contest at the end of December.
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04-07-2018, 19:33   #6
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Was surprised to see Alberto actually managed to cause $50m + worth of damage, if you believe Wikipedia.

Two new areas of interest popping up today, other than after a brief low chance dissapeared a few days ago the Atlantic has been eerily quiet.

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07-07-2018, 12:50   #7
Meteorite58
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Tropical Depression 3 now forecast to achieve near or Hurricane strength winds in the next few days. Will be interesting on our part to see how it might influence our weather around next weekend , if any. Nothing big showing up at present and could well track up towards Greenland or Iceland but these remnants can pump a bit of energy into the atmosphere and carry a lot of moisture with them. The models can find it hard to compute their influence sometimes sending out mixed signals until they lock on better and get to grips with them . Could easily turn out to be quite benign. Interesting nonetheless.







000
WTNT43 KNHC 070853
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes at 0136 UTC and 0216 UTC
revealed the the depression has not yet strengthened, and its
circulation remains very broad. Although the larger-scale
circulation of the cyclone is well-defined, it lacks an inner core,
and the center of circulation consists of a wide area of light
winds. The initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based primarily
on the ASCAT data, and this is also supported by the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB.

While the cyclone was nearly devoid of deep convection for several
hours late last night and early this morning, a broken convective
band has since developed to the south of the low-level center. This
could indicate that the depression is beginning to become better
organized and will begin to slowly strengthen. Warm SSTs will
likely allow the depression to gradually strengthen through the next
3 to 4 days, however moderate shear and the lack of an existing
inner-core will likely limit the intensification rate. The
intensity guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday,
and now most of the models show the cyclone nearing or reaching
hurricane strength. No change has been made to the NHC intensity
forecast, which is now near the middle of the guidance and very
close to HCCA throughout the forecast.

Nighttime Proxy-Vis imagery has been very helpful in tracking the
depression this morning, which has slowed down and is now estimated
to be moving north-northwestward or 345/4 kt. For the first 48 h,
the track models remain in fairly good agreement that the cyclone
will meander off the coast of the Carolinas, as it becomes trapped
in the light steering flow between a cold front passing to the north
and the subtropical ridge to the east. Beyond that time, there has
been a significant change in the track models, all of which now
depict a much faster northeastward motion beginning on Tuesday as
the cyclone recurves ahead of a mid-level trough approaching from
the northwest. Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to
show a faster motion at day 4 and 5, it is now much slower than all
of the global models in an effort to maintain continuity from our
earlier forecasts. If this trend continues, larger changes will
need to be made to the track forecast in future advisories.

Most of the guidance continues to suggest that the
tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will occur
primarily to the east of the cyclone's center well away from the
U.S. coast. Therefore, no watches or warnings are required for the
U.S coast at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina
coast should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 33.2N 74.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 33.6N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 33.8N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 33.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 34.0N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 34.5N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 37.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 41.0N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
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07-07-2018, 13:03   #8
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Tropical Depression THREE

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07-07-2018, 13:31   #9
hatrickpatrick
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Just to advise people posting NHC graphics here, the Tropical Weather Outlook graphics (map of the tropical atlantic with current systems marked) updates four times a day, so if you want to embed one, copy the link and paste it into Imgur, then embed the imgur link here. Otherwise, if anyone's reading the thread a couple of days after you post something, the current version of the graphic that they'll see won't make sense in the context of what you were posting at the time.
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08-07-2018, 11:32   #10
Meteorite58
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Tropical Storm Chris becomes the third named storm of the season and set to become a Hurricane over the next 72hrs as it passes over warm sst's. The NHC noting :


The track guidance has once again made a large shift with the latest
forecast cycle. While Chris is generally expected to continue to
meander off the coast of the Carolinas for the next couple of days
before accelerating to the northeast ahead of a deep-layer trough
approaching from the northwest, the timing of this acceleration is
highly uncertain. Nearly all of the dynamical models have now
shifted to the south and west of their previous forecasts throughout
most of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction, but now lies on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope, and shows a faster motion than most of the
models. Given the large run-to-run inconsistency of the guidance
over the past 24 hours, I would prefer to wait to make a more
significant change to the forecast until a more clear pattern
emerges.














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08-07-2018, 11:50   #11
Meteorite58
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Not posing a risk to land at this stage, set to meander off the coasts for a few days before tracking towards the NE by about Tues. Swells and gales on coasts up along the Eastern states .

Will be interesting to see it's track later in the week and how it might influence our weather.


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09-07-2018, 16:40   #12
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Given the very hot weather that we have had for a few weeks now will that fuel any storm that comes close to Ireland in the Months ahead making them more powerful, the sea is bound to be warmer than normal with all the sunshine we had, any thoughts on this.
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10-07-2018, 16:31   #13
sryanbruen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Storm 10 View Post
Given the very hot weather that we have had for a few weeks now will that fuel any storm that comes close to Ireland in the Months ahead making them more powerful, the sea is bound to be warmer than normal with all the sunshine we had, any thoughts on this.
It's more the "cold blob" of sea surface temperature anomalies to the south of Greenland that would cause an enhancement in storm development as them kind of SST anomalies are more conducive to storms - just look at 2015.

The National Hurricane Center latest update for Chris now show it travelling near the west of Ireland by Sunday afternoon.

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10-07-2018, 17:29   #14
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I hope for us that Chris is just a blip and not a Summer changer!
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10-07-2018, 18:44   #15
EdgeCase
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Any one got any idea what the likely wind speeds in something like that would be?
Is it not unusually early for a major Atlantic storm to cross this far east? I'm just wondering would water temperature have any impact, or is the Atlantic too cool at this latitude to have any significant impact?
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