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2018 Hurricane Season

  • 24-05-2018 11:59pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 8,199 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    The season kicks off on June 1st and goes until November 30th. The NHC have forecast this year's to be near to above normal (35% chance of above normal, 40% chance of near normal, 25% chance of below normal).

    2018%20Hurricane%20numbers%20-%20FINAL%20as%20of%20052118%20-700x430.png

    2018%20Hurricane%20names%20-%20FINAL%20as%20of%20052118%20-%20700x430.png



    Sea-surface temperatures (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC) are around normal at the moment.

    2018143atsst.png
    2018143at.jpg


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,199 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    The first system of the season looks like forming over the weekend as a low centre moves northwards into the Gulf.
    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
    showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
    Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
    tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
    aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    Forecaster Stewart


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,543 ✭✭✭✭ Supercell


    Lets hope Debby (Debbie) doesn't pay us another visit!

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭ 17-pdr


    Subtropical storm Alberto currently coming ashore on the Florida panhandle. 45 mph winds. Heavy rain and flash flooding warnings issued.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,196 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    If anyone is interested in entering a seasonal contest, I have one running on this website in the U.S.A. ...

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/

    (you would need to join the forum to post ... and the deadline is given as late Monday June 4th)

    If you just want to make a forecast here I will let you know where it would have finished in the contest at the end of December.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    Was surprised to see Alberto actually managed to cause $50m + worth of damage, if you believe Wikipedia.

    Two new areas of interest popping up today, other than after a brief low chance dissapeared a few days ago the Atlantic has been eerily quiet.

    two_atl_0d0.png?041730


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Tropical Depression 3 now forecast to achieve near or Hurricane strength winds in the next few days. Will be interesting on our part to see how it might influence our weather around next weekend , if any. Nothing big showing up at present and could well track up towards Greenland or Iceland but these remnants can pump a bit of energy into the atmosphere and carry a lot of moisture with them. The models can find it hard to compute their influence sometimes sending out mixed signals until they lock on better and get to grips with them . Could easily turn out to be quite benign. Interesting nonetheless.

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    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 070853
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
    500 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

    A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes at 0136 UTC and 0216 UTC
    revealed the the depression has not yet strengthened, and its
    circulation remains very broad. Although the larger-scale
    circulation of the cyclone is well-defined, it lacks an inner core,
    and the center of circulation consists of a wide area of light
    winds. The initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based primarily
    on the ASCAT data, and this is also supported by the latest Dvorak
    classifications from TAFB and SAB.

    While the cyclone was nearly devoid of deep convection for several
    hours late last night and early this morning, a broken convective
    band has since developed to the south of the low-level center. This
    could indicate that the depression is beginning to become better
    organized and will begin to slowly strengthen. Warm SSTs will
    likely allow the depression to gradually strengthen through the next
    3 to 4 days, however moderate shear and the lack of an existing
    inner-core will likely limit the intensification rate. The
    intensity guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday,
    and now most of the models show the cyclone nearing or reaching
    hurricane strength. No change has been made to the NHC intensity
    forecast, which is now near the middle of the guidance and very
    close to HCCA throughout the forecast.

    Nighttime Proxy-Vis imagery has been very helpful in tracking the
    depression this morning, which has slowed down and is now estimated
    to be moving north-northwestward or 345/4 kt. For the first 48 h,
    the track models remain in fairly good agreement that the cyclone
    will meander off the coast of the Carolinas, as it becomes trapped
    in the light steering flow between a cold front passing to the north
    and the subtropical ridge to the east. Beyond that time, there has
    been a significant change in the track models, all of which now
    depict a much faster northeastward motion beginning on Tuesday as
    the cyclone recurves ahead of a mid-level trough approaching from
    the northwest. Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to
    show a faster motion at day 4 and 5, it is now much slower than all
    of the global models in an effort to maintain continuity from our
    earlier forecasts. If this trend continues, larger changes will
    need to be made to the track forecast in future advisories.

    Most of the guidance continues to suggest that the
    tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will occur
    primarily to the east of the cyclone's center well away from the
    U.S. coast. Therefore, no watches or warnings are required for the
    U.S coast at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina
    coast should monitor the progress of this system.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 07/0900Z 33.2N 74.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
    12H 07/1800Z 33.6N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
    24H 08/0600Z 33.8N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
    36H 08/1800Z 33.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
    48H 09/0600Z 34.0N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
    72H 10/0600Z 34.5N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
    96H 11/0600Z 37.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 12/0600Z 41.0N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Tropical Depression THREE

    TubPykC.gif?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    Just to advise people posting NHC graphics here, the Tropical Weather Outlook graphics (map of the tropical atlantic with current systems marked) updates four times a day, so if you want to embed one, copy the link and paste it into Imgur, then embed the imgur link here. Otherwise, if anyone's reading the thread a couple of days after you post something, the current version of the graphic that they'll see won't make sense in the context of what you were posting at the time.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Tropical Storm Chris becomes the third named storm of the season and set to become a Hurricane over the next 72hrs as it passes over warm sst's. The NHC noting :


    The track guidance has once again made a large shift with the latest
    forecast cycle. While Chris is generally expected to continue to
    meander off the coast of the Carolinas for the next couple of days
    before accelerating to the northeast ahead of a deep-layer trough
    approaching from the northwest, the timing of this acceleration is
    highly uncertain. Nearly all of the dynamical models have now
    shifted to the south and west of their previous forecasts throughout
    most of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been
    adjusted in that direction, but now lies on the eastern side of the
    guidance envelope, and shows a faster motion than most of the
    models. Given the large run-to-run inconsistency of the guidance
    over the past 24 hours, I would prefer to wait to make a more
    significant change to the forecast until a more clear pattern
    emerges.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Not posing a risk to land at this stage, set to meander off the coasts for a few days before tracking towards the NE by about Tues. Swells and gales on coasts up along the Eastern states .

    Will be interesting to see it's track later in the week and how it might influence our weather.


    iLrBdHT.gif?1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Given the very hot weather that we have had for a few weeks now will that fuel any storm that comes close to Ireland in the Months ahead making them more powerful, the sea is bound to be warmer than normal with all the sunshine we had, any thoughts on this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Given the very hot weather that we have had for a few weeks now will that fuel any storm that comes close to Ireland in the Months ahead making them more powerful, the sea is bound to be warmer than normal with all the sunshine we had, any thoughts on this.

    It's more the "cold blob" of sea surface temperature anomalies to the south of Greenland that would cause an enhancement in storm development as them kind of SST anomalies are more conducive to storms - just look at 2015.

    The National Hurricane Center latest update for Chris now show it travelling near the west of Ireland by Sunday afternoon.

    JQ3QLJm.png

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,106 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    I hope for us that Chris is just a blip and not a Summer changer!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,472 EdgeCase


    Any one got any idea what the likely wind speeds in something like that would be?
    Is it not unusually early for a major Atlantic storm to cross this far east? I'm just wondering would water temperature have any impact, or is the Atlantic too cool at this latitude to have any significant impact?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Any one got any idea what the likely wind speeds in something like that would be?



    GFS 12Z taking it away from our shores and not looking windy on this run , bit to go yet though to know for certain but on the lead up to this over the last number of days it has never looked that windy. ECM the same keeping it away from our shores yet a different track. ( ECM 12Z coming out shortly will see the latest )

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Some debate coming out of America on will it reach Hurricane status.

    https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1016719830655922181

    https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1016729054152667136

    The Jet not looking particularly strong going into the weekend so not giving the remnants of Chris a bit of oomph to keep up the wind speeds.

    zyCZfzP.gif

    https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1016749971335331840


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Officially Hurricane Chris now making it the second Hurricane of the season. Set to be a short lived Hurricane even after intensifying over the next 12 hrs or so. Big difference in the water temp off Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

    The models showing the remnants getting a bit closer to Ireland , winds not too strong at present ( showing up to 50 60 km/h along the coasts atm )

    NHC

    YZzcXjT.png


    Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 17
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
    500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

    Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
    that Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the
    second hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology
    by more than six weeks. The aircraft found 850-mb flight-level winds
    of 88 kt in the southeastern quadrant, along with SFMR winds of
    73-77 kt. Dropsondes in the the same area found equivalent surface
    winds of 73-74 kt, and the most recent central pressure observed was
    980 mb. Furthermore, satellite intensity estimates are a consensus
    T4.5/77 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, based on a well-defined
    20-nmi-diameter clear eye. These data support a solid 75-kt advisory
    intensity.

    The initial motion is a slightly faster 050/09 kt. Chris is north of
    a narrow subtropical ridge, and water vapor imagery also indicates
    that Chris is beginning to feel the influence of a digging trough
    over the northeastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic states. The combination
    of these two features should gradually accelerate the hurricane
    northeastward at a faster forward speed through 96 hours. By the
    time Chris passes well southeast of Nova Scotia in 36 hours or so,
    the hurricane will be moving at a forward speed of more than 25 kt.
    On the new forecast track, Chris is still expected to move near or
    over southeastern Newfoundland in about 48-60 hours. The latest
    model guidance has a much larger spread in both cross-track and
    along-track motions. To smooth out these differences, the new
    forecast track is down the middle of the tighter HCCA, FSSE, and
    TVCN consensus model suite.

    Now that Chris has moved away from the cold upwelling region, some
    additional intensification is forecast for the next 12 hours or so
    due to 27-28 deg C SSTs beneath the cyclone and the well-established
    current outflow pattern that is expected to persist during that
    time. Slow weakening should begin shortly after Chris peaks in
    intensity due to the cyclone moving over cooler waters, creating
    some modest upwelling as a result. By 36 hours, Chris will have
    moved well north of the Gulfstream and be moving over SSTs colder
    than 15 deg C. The combination of the much colder water and
    southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt should induce a
    rapid transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity
    forecast is above the intensity guidance through 12 hours, and then
    shows weakening after that similar to the LGEM and IVCN models.

    Now that Chris is moving away from the United States, the
    previously scheduled aircraft mission for 11/0600 UTC has been
    canceled.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 10/2100Z 33.7N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
    12H 11/0600Z 34.9N 70.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
    24H 11/1800Z 37.1N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
    36H 12/0600Z 40.5N 62.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
    48H 12/1800Z 44.7N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 13/1800Z 51.0N 41.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 14/1800Z 55.2N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 15/1800Z 59.0N 12.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,196 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The Azores high just said, "hey thanks, Chris, I was on my last legs and you came along, I can rest while you do my work."

    Well that's what I think it said.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    In all its glory.

    fgszcX4.gif?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    I've never seen this level of uncertainty actually acknowledged in an NHC forecast before (the uncertainty has certainly existed and does so regularly, just don't recall them making such a point of it)

    perhaps more notably, for a Hurricane initially progged as only being a hurricane for a few hours before rapidly dissipating, it is now only 11kt off major hurricane status.
    NHC wrote:

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/111457.shtml?


    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


    OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 62.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 67.8W


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,199 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    sdanseo wrote: »
    I've never seen this level of uncertainty actually acknowledged in an NHC forecast before (the uncertainty has certainly existed and does so regularly, just don't recall them making such a point of it)

    perhaps more notably, for a Hurricane initially progged as only being a hurricane for a few hours before rapidly dissipating, it is now only 11kt off major hurricane status.

    They regularly (if not always) highlight the errors out at extended periods.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A shift more towards Iceland on the latest guidance , well away from Ireland. Interesting reading from the NHC how it passes over an ocean thermal ridge of 28C around now associated with the gulf Stream maintaining strength and within 24 hrs will be passing over SST's colder than 12C coupled with a strong SW'ly wind shear which will bring about rapid weakening and transition to extra tropical cyclone.

    Worth keeping an eye on the remnants of Beryl which has a chance of cyclone development in the days ahead.

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    NHC


    1. The remnants of Beryl continue to produce a broad area of
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bahamas
    and extending northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few
    hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but
    conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week
    and over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly northward
    and northeastward over the western Atlantic. Additional information
    on this disturbance can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
    the National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
    on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

    Forecaster Stewart


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Just a fun fact about Chris:

    https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1017089206680629250

    Atlantic hurricane activity might start to really ramp up come September.

    https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017093412909146112

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    NHC now saying Beryl remnants are certain to reform into a new storm. Further update imminent

    d101c3903dfc5a11d5ab118dac6fc018.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    lower-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction
    Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued today. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent, and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent.
    To produce the seasonal update, forecasters take several factors into account. El Nino is now much more likely to develop with enough strength to suppress storm development during the latter part of the season. Today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast to a nearly 70 percent likelihood of El Nino during the hurricane season.

    Additionally, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have remained much cooler than average. A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air and increased stability of the atmosphere in the region where storms typically develop will further suppress hurricanes. Storm activity to-date and the most recent model predictions also contribute to this update.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    So it looks like Ernesto largely missed most of the country and that associated rain was fairly short lived - storm seems to have not only ended up further North, but accelerated far more quickly than previously expected, robbing it of enough time to give us a proper deluge. From what I can see on satellite, the North and Northwest got a decent blast from the rain but it's already beginning to clear away, far from the nightlong torrent which was being forecast just a few days ago by most forecasting sites.

    The question is though, with Hurricane Season not even close to peaking yet, will we get any more remnants this year? Or even a repeat of last year's bizarre Ophelia scenario, with a hurricane hitting us only just barely after becoming post-tropical?

    Personally I'd say we're somewhat unlikely to see too much tropical action in our neck of the woods this year. The Atlantic is a very different place than it was last year - temperatures in the East Pacific are far higher compared with 2017's La Nina conditions and this is causing rampant activity off the American West Coast, with consequent upper outflow driving up wind shear across much of the tropical Atlantic. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are actually below average this year for the first time in a while - this apparently caused by the incredible NAO and freakishly strong Azores High throughout the early summer, causing stronger ocean currents than usual and thus carrying heat away from the tropics without giving it a chance to concentrate and pool in specific areas as it did last year.

    It seems to me that you need a hyperactive season in order to have any real chance of unusual Northeast Atlantic tropical systems - 2005 and 2017, for instance, had Hurricane Vince and Hurricane Ophelia respectively. Remnants which have traversed the Atlantic after riding around the edge of the Azores High are far less likely to retain much of their strength for various reasons - and with fewer storms expected to form in the Atlantic this year, the chances of oddballs forming seems even lower than usual.

    What does anyone else think?

    Unfortunately I will add one prediction - we could see an incredibly stormy Winter this year with a lot of named storms. I don't know for sure if there's a correlation, but it seems to me that El Nino years, as this is shaping up to be, tend to have stronger Polar Vortex activity (and thus more intense lows with stormy, but irritatingly mild, conditions :D ) in Winter than neutral or La Nina years. But I'd love if someone could refute this theory :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Unfortunately I will add one prediction - we could see an incredibly stormy Winter this year with a lot of named storms. I don't know for sure if there's a correlation, but it seems to me that El Nino years, as this is shaping up to be, tend to have stronger Polar Vortex activity (and thus more intense lows with stormy, but irritatingly mild, conditions :D ) in Winter than neutral or La Nina years. But I'd love if someone could refute this theory :D

    El Nino years tend to be the opposite of La Nina, colder weather later in the Winter whereas La Nina is colder weather earlier in the Winter. This is just an average and there are many deviations. For example, for El Nino, there was 2009-10, 1939-40, 1887-88. Or La Nina, 2017-18.... February was the coldest of the Winter when it was forecasted to be the mildest month, primarily down to La Nina but in the end it wasn't. Another La Nina example being 1954-55, December was the mildest and wettest, February was very cold.

    Thing is, ocean is not really showing its hand in El Nino state: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057875863

    Moderate El Nino, El Nino Modoki, ENSO neutral or weak La Nina are the safest bets historically for a cold and snowy Winter.

    I think ENSO will be the least of our problems this Winter unlike something such as the Atlantic sea surface temperatures which are a current issue.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,395 ✭✭✭ Danno


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I think ENSO will be the least of our problems this Winter unlike something such as the Atlantic sea surface temperatures which are a current issue.

    What do you see are the issues? And how are they going to play out?


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